- Add Brock Bowers early: Anyone picking at the end of the first round is not in a great position to land a top early quarterback or tight end, but Bowers is the only exception.
- Double up at running back: The third and fourth rounds are the right time to land two high-upside lead running backs.
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Estimated reading time: 13 minutes
This perfect draft strategy for 12-team, single-quarterback, redraft, PPR fantasy football leagues uses current average draft positions (ADPs) specifically from Yahoo! to deliver a round-by-round guide for managers picking at the end of the draft — specifically from Picks 10, 11 or 12. To find more information about any player mentioned in this article, click on the player's name to find their fantasy football player profile.
Last updated: Friday, August 1
Round 1, Picks 10-12: Draft a wide receiver
Anyone picking from the middle of the first round to the end is either selecting their top available wide receiver or a running back, such as Ashton Jeanty or Derrick Henry. There are six wide receivers ranked third to eighth, where seemingly no two analysts have the receivers in the same order. All could end up as the top overall wide receiver if everything goes well, but all of them are going through some changes with some combination of new play-callers, new quarterbacks and new competition for targets. In Brian Thomas Jr.’s player profile, I detail why I believe he is the best option of the group, but there are legitimate reasons to pick a different receiver.
Top Target: Brian Thomas Jr.
Brian Thomas Jr. had a strong start to his rookie season and ended it among the league’s best fantasy receivers. In his final seven games, he gained at least 13 PPR points each week and averaged 21.5 points, third behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Puka Nacua. He played at least 84% of his team’s offensive snaps in all but one of those games. The team added Travis Hunter in the draft, and he will see a decent target rate, but typically, two great wide receivers can co-exist as long as there isn’t much more competition for targets. Thomas led all wide receivers in yards per route run out of the slot with 3.12, and new offensive coordinator Liam Coen has found a lot of success with his slot receivers in the past. An increased role in the slot could lead Thomas to remain among the top wide receivers in fantasy football.
Possible Targets: Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Malik Nabers, Drake London, A.J. Brown
Round 2, Picks 13-15: Draft a tight end or wide receiver
Anyone picking late in the first round will have a hard time landing a top quarterback or tight end. It’s too early to pick a quarterback with this pick, but Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts will all likely be gone by the 36th pick. Similarly, Brock Bowers, Trey McBride and George Kittle will likely be gone by the 36th pick. There are no quarterbacks or tight ends that make sense to pick at 36, so it would again be sensible to wait for those positions. This is around the time Bowers is typically selected. While there are other good options to consider at this pick, picking a tight end here prevents you from needing to prioritize both multiple tight ends and multiple quarterbacks later in the draft, which would prevent you from adding as much depth at running back and wide receiver. However, if you would rather not pick a tight end this early, then wide receiver is likely the best position to target.
Top Target: Brock Bowers
Bowers joined the Raiders and immediately became the league’s top fantasy tight end. He led all tight ends in receptions and receiving yards as a rookie, resulting in the most fantasy points. Both Trey McBride and George Kittle missed games, and both finished slightly ahead of him in fantasy points per game. His 88.4 receiving grade also finished third among tight ends, behind Kittle and McBride. Bowers is expected to leap over the two tight ends with general improvements to the Raiders' offense, leading to more accurate passes thrown his way and more touchdowns. However, the coaching staff has a history of tight end committees, and the Raiders have better run-blocking tight ends on the roster, which could lead to Bowers getting used on fewer snaps this season than last.
Possible Targets: Trey McBride, Drake London, A.J. Brown, Ladd McConkey, Tee Higgins
Round 3, Picks 34-36: Draft a running back
The only options at this point in the draft are running back or wide receiver. A tight end was selected in Round 2, and the top four quarterbacks are off the board. There is a large dropoff between those four and everyone else. It’s important to note that by Pick 60, the top-22 running backs will all be off the board. Everyone else outside of the top 22 is either expected to be in a heavy rotation, or it’s unclear who will be the starter. On the flip side, there are multiple wide receivers to still be excited about at Pick 60. Because of this, it’s time to double-dip on the best two running backs available and wait to fill out the wide receiver starters later.
Top Target: Kenneth Walker III
Kenneth Walker III has graded among the best running backs in the league, including a 91.3 rushing grade last season. His 0.42 avoided tackles per attempt last season were the most in PFF’s 19 years of statistics for all running backs with at least 50 carries. The next-most with any player with at least 150 carries in a season was 0.31, which is a tie that includes 2014 Marshawn Lynch and 2020 Nick Chubb. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak will have an offense that plays to Walker’s strengths with his zone scheme and will prioritize getting him the football more than last season. However, he’s missed 10 games over the previous three seasons due to injury, and his play was negatively affected in several more while playing through injury. If he can stay healthy, he will have his best fantasy season yet, but staying healthy is a big if.
Possible Targets: Omarion Hampton, Alvin Kamara, R.J. Harvey, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard
Round 4, Picks 37-39: Draft a running back or wide receiver
As mentioned above, running back is the option that makes the most sense for this pick. There are plenty of great wide receivers available, and it’s understandably tempting to add one of them, but it will be harder to find value at running back in the next few rounds.
Top Target: Omarion Hampton
Hampton should be viewed as one of the top rookie running backs from the last few seasons and a lead running back on a run-heavy team. He averaged at least eight carries of 5 or more yards per game in the previous two seasons. However, the presence of Najee Harris and the lack of receiving potential will likely prevent Hampton from being an immediate top-10 fantasy running back. He will likely be a fantasy starter early on in his rookie season. The more the Chargers change their offense to fit Hampton in terms of more zone runs and more running back targets, the better his fantasy value will be.
Possible Targets: Garrett Wilson, Alvin Kamara, Marvin Harrison Jr., Davante Adams, Rashee Rice
Round 5, Picks 58-60: Draft a wide receiver
After drafting back-to-back running backs in Rounds 3 and 4, it’s time to pivot back to wide receiver. There are multiple intriguing options on the board to pick from. There will be a few quarterbacks who will likely go off the board between Picks 61 and 84, including Baker Mayfield, Bo Nix and Jared Goff, but there will be plenty of other quarterback options with nearly as much upside available later. That won’t be the case at wide receiver, which is why both picks should be wide receivers, even though quarterback remains a need, and a few will likely be selected.
Top Target: Jameson Williams
Jameson Williams was a highly talented college player, but an ACL injury and suspension led to a quiet first two seasons in the NFL. Detroit started using Williams more on short and intermediate passes in 2024, allowing him to take advantage of his speed after the catch. By mid-season, he consistently gained at least 8 PPR points per game, making him a reliable fantasy starter. He accomplished this despite Detroit having several other offensive weapons. The Lions have a new offensive coordinator who has always given a lot of praise to Williams, which could further increase his fantasy value this season.
Possible Targets: Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, DeVonta Smith, Xavier Worthy, Chris Olave
Round 6, Picks 61-63: Draft a wide receiver or D'Andre Swift
As mentioned above, this pick should be another wide receiver. The only reason to consider a running back is if you passed on one in Round 4.
Top Target: Tetairoa McMillan
McMillan is a prototypical X receiver and one of the best X receivers coming out of college in a long time. His 89.5 receiving grade is the fifth-best among Power-Five receivers 6-foot-2 or taller in the last decade. The only receiver with more receiving yards during that time is CeeDee Lamb. He was selected eighth overall by the Carolina Panthers, and could be their top target earner as a rookie. He joins Dave Canales’ offense, who has a history of his X receivers reaching double-digit touchdowns in both his only season with Mike Evans and D.K. Metcalf twice. He is the safest rookie wide receiver option in both redraft and dynasty leagues.
Possible Targets: Travis Hunter, DeVonta Smith, Xavier Worthy, Chris Olave, D'Andre Swift
Round 7, Picks 82-84: Draft a running back or wide receiver
This is a similar range where wide receivers are the draft's strength. Running backs like Tony Pollard and Tyrone Tracy Jr. are drafted in this range, but it’s clear they will be sharing their respective backfields with Tyjae Spears and Cameron Skattebo, both of whom are available a few rounds later. Because there are so many running backs fighting for a starting job or in a committee, you can find some options in later rounds while building on wide receivers who have proven NFL success but are more risky due to past injury history. However, if a few wide receivers were picked earlier than expected, then running back becomes the strength of the draft.
Top Target: Deebo Samuel
Samuel has been a solid fantasy starter when healthy, peaking as the third overall wide receiver in 2021. However, Samuel has dealt with several injuries throughout his career. In 2024 alone, he was listed with six different injuries on the official NFL injury reports. He was traded to the Washington Commanders this offseason, pairing him with offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. When Kingsbury was with the Arizona Cardinals, he found unique ways to use Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch on short passes and passes out of the backfield. They should be able to use Samuel in the same way, but with more success. Samuel should be able to find more success than he had last season, unless injuries hinder his ability and playing time again.
Possible Targets: Jakobi Meyers, Jerry Jeudy, Jaylen Warren, Jauan Jennings, Jordan Mason
Round 8, Picks 85-87: Draft a quarterback
Ideally, you could wait even longer to draft your first quarterback, but unfortunately, quarterbacks are generally selected earlier on Yahoo! compared to other platforms. Some of the top quarterback options still available will be off the board by the next round. While I would be comfortable with a quarterback duo of J.J. McCarthy and Trevor Lawrence, their ADPs are also higher on Yahoo! than on other platforms, so you would need to reach for one quarterback. It’s better to reach a little here, and be more settled at the quarterback position.
Top Target: Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy went from the last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft to the San Francisco 49ers‘ starter. In 2023, he was a top-10 fantasy quarterback, but Kyle Shanahan's scheme and all of the 49ers' skill players got a lot of the credit. In 2024, the 49ers were losing, Purdy dealt with injuries, and all of the 49ers' best offensive players missed significant time. Purdy’s fantasy points per game only dropped by 0.4. Purdy ran more often to help make up for the decreased passing value, which ultimately made him more consistent from a fantasy perspective. Purdy doesn’t have the elite rushing or passing value to make him a top-five fantasy quarterback, but he’s a relatively safe bet to finish as a top-10 quarterback again.
Possible Targets: Justin Fields, J.J. McCarthy, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams
Round 9, Picks 106-108: Draft a running back or wide receiver
It’s fine to consider either a running back or wide receiver with this pick. After drafting so many wide receivers in recent rounds, it’s fine to pick a running back this time around.
Top Target: Rhamondre Stevenson
Rhamondre Stevenson has spent the last four seasons with the Patriots and has been an every-down lead back with a capable veteran backup most of the time. His quality of play is very dependent on the offensive line, and the line had the worst team run-blocking grade last season. He reunites with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who was his offensive coordinator in his first season. In 17 of McDaniels' 18 seasons, the running back who leads his team in rushing attempts is not the same one who leads his backfield in third-down snaps. The Patriots spent the 38th overall pick on TreVeyon Henderson, who was arguably the best receiving back in this draft class. That means Stevenson will likely lose most of his passing-down work. He should still receive double-digit carries most weeks, and the Patriots made multiple changes to the offensive line, which should help his production.
Possible Targets: Matthew Golden, Brandon Aiyuk, Darnell Mooney, Tyjae Spears, Javonte Williams
Round 10, Picks 109-111: Draft a tight end or wide receiver
This team is very balanced at this point, so these last few picks will be focused primarily on following value. Matthew Golden’s ADP is a full two rounds later on Yahoo! compared to other platforms, making him a clear value at this point in the draft. This is also the point to start taking quarterbacks if you were waiting for one. This is also the time to consider a tight end if you passed on one in the earlier rounds.
Top Target: Matthew Golden
Golden was a polarizing prospect heading into the NFL draft. At Texas, he led the wide receiver room in offensive snaps and routes run in the regular season, but multiple wide receivers earned a higher grade than him. He posted 1.6 yards per route run in the regular season, fifth among Texas‘s top six wide receivers. Then the playoffs hit, and Golden was much more dominant. He caught 19 of 29 passes for 411 yards for 3.37 yards per route run. The Green Bay Packers allow him an opportunity to become an actual number one receiver, a chance he wasn’t going to see with most teams. Golden will be a perfect mid-to-late round dart throw at wide receiver with a lot of upside, but also the risk that he’s never a fantasy starter as a rookie.
Possible Targets: Brandon Aiyuk, Darnell Mooney, Dalton Kincaid, Colston Loveland, Khalil Shakir
Round 11, Picks 130-132: Draft a running back
This is another example of picking up value based on Yahoo!’s ADP, as Tyjae Spears has a slightly later ADP on Yahoo! than other platforms and is the highest-ranked running back available.
Top Target: Tyjae Spears
Tyjae Spears started his NFL career as the receiving down back, complementing Derrick Henry, and then was the backup to Tony Pollard. He’s shown a great ability to avoid tackles in the passing game, but that hasn’t been enough to be a fantasy starter. However, during the fantasy playoffs last season, Pollard was injured, and Spears scored the fifth-most fantasy points over the three-game stretch. Ideally, that strong play late in the season will be enough for Spears to earn more playing time, and potentially earn the starting role over Pollard.
Possible Targets: Bhayshul Tuten, Braelon Allen, Roschon Johnson, Dylan Sampson, Jaydon Blue
Round 12, Picks 133-135: Draft a running back
This team has a bigger strength at wide receiver than running back at this point in the draft, so it makes sense to add another running back to try to balance out the roster.
Top Target: Bhayshul Tuten
Tuten was excellent at avoiding tackles in college, with 0.339 avoided tackles per attempt, ranking fourth-best among the rookie running backs. He joins a wide-open Jacksonville Jaguars backfield, where he, Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby will compete for snaps on both early downs and passing downs. Tuten should be viewed more favorably than most handcuff running backs. Like all handcuffs, there is a chance he won’t hold any fantasy value this upcoming season, but there is also a path for significant playing time if he can simply outperform the other running backs on the roster.
Possible Targets: Tyjae Spears, Braelon Allen, Roschon Johnson, Dylan Sampson, Trey Benson
Round 13, Picks 154-156: Draft a quarterback
If you don’t draft one of the top-five fantasy quarterbacks, it typically makes sense to draft two players and start whoever has the best matchup each week.
Top Target: Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence has been a somewhat inconsistent fantasy quarterback for the Jaguars over his four seasons, experiencing a peak in 2022 with 25 passing and five rushing touchdowns, but seeing his value fluctuate due to varying play quality and injuries. While he boasts a high big-time throw rate, averaging 1.8 per game over the last two seasons, he also struggles with a high turnover-worthy throw rate. Entering the 2025 season under new head coach Liam Coen, there's optimism for improvement, drawing comparisons to Baker Mayfield‘s success in Coen's system, potentially boosting Lawrence's fantasy output. Brian Thomas Jr.’s emergence, as well as the Travis Hunter addition, adds to the reason for optimism. Lawrence is a high-upside second option in both single quarterback and superflex leagues.
Possible Targets: Cameron Ward, Anthony Richardson Sr., Tyler Shough, Russell Wilson, Kenny Pickett
Round 14–18: Fill Depth
Use any additional picks to draft a kicker and team defense if required; otherwise, stock up on running backs and wide receivers.
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