- Pick a quarterback like Jayden Daniels early: By adding one or more players who are the best at their position, it’s easier to stockpile players at other positions.
- Bijan Robinson ideally falls to third: While some might consider Robinson the top overall option in the draft, in the typical draft, he is a value at third after Ja’Marr Chase and Saquon Barkley.
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Estimated reading time: 13 minutes
This perfect draft strategy for 12-team, single-quarterback, redraft, PPR fantasy football leagues uses a consensus of current average draft positions (ADPs) from ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo! to deliver a round-by-round guide for managers picking first overall. To find more information about any player mentioned in this article, click on the player's name to find their fantasy football player profile.
Last updated: Thursday, July 3
Round 1, Pick 3: Draft a running back
Ja’Marr Chase has the highest ADP at ESPN, Sleeper, and Yahoo!, which means he is the only player likely to be off the board at this point. There is some level of risk to every other wide receiver on the board. Justin Jefferson is playing with a new quarterback, and CeeDee Lamb is coming back due to injury with a quarterback who is also returning from injury and wasn’t playing well last season before the injury. This means that picking the top running back is the best option. Typically, Saquon Barkley is picked second overall, allowing you to pick the top running back in our rankings, Bijan Robinson. However, if Robinson is picked second, it’s better to pivot to Jahmyr Gibbs instead of Barkley.
Top Target: Bijan Robinson
Bijan Robinson was a rare top-10 NFL draft pick at running back, leading to hefty expectations. He began meeting those expectations over the second half of 2024, consistently playing over 70% of the Falcons' offensive snaps and running at least 17 times in all but one game. This led to 22.4 fantasy points per game over the last nine weeks. He didn’t see as many 15-plus-yard carries as other great running backs, even though he’s got the talent and speed to have those runs. It’s possible some positive regression could greatly help his fantasy production this season. He lost Drew Dalman at center and still has an elite backup in Tyler Allgeier, so there is also some room to lose fantasy value.
Possible Targets: Jahmyr Gibbs, Ashton Jeanty, Christian McCaffrey, Bucky Irving, De'Von Achane
Round 2, Pick 22: Draft a tight end
It’s generally helpful to draft either a quarterback early or a tight end early, so then you only need to draft one player at that position, or if you draft a backup, it can be near the end of the draft. While this is slightly ahead of McBride’s ADP, he was a top tight end last season, and there is reason to believe he can be even better this season. If this team passes on a tight end here, McBride won’t be available at the next pick, and it will be a little too early for George Kittle. It likely wouldn’t make sense to pick another tight end until several rounds later.
Top Target: Trey McBride
McBride became the Cardinals' primary tight end in the middle of the 2023 season, and he’s been an elite fantasy option at the position ever since. He averaged at least 15 PPR points in both seasons once he became the starter. McBride led the league in both receptions per game (6.9) and receptions per route (0.21) last season. His yards per game (71.6) and targets per game (8.7) were both second-best. The Cardinals kept the coaching staff and players on the offense essentially the same as last season, making it easier to expect more of the same from McBride. If anything, we can expect a few more touchdowns after his low touchdown total from last season.
Possible Targets: George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson, Sam LaPorta, David Njoku, Tucker Kraft
Round 3, Pick 27: Draft a quarterback
The main position to avoid in Round 3 is running back. Typically, 10 running backs are selected in the first two rounds. These are a combination of the most talented running backs with the largest roles at the position. Every other option has some red flags, with the possibility of getting benched, a running back committee or an injury history. After drafting a tight end in Round 2, the only options are at quarterback or wide receiver. The person with the third overall pick is in a unique position to have a decent value at both an early down tight end and quarterback, as it’s harder to find value at one position or the other with any other pick. Because of that, we’ll lean quarterback here. Anyone who is against this kind of team building can look at the perfect strategy for picking second or fourth from this point on to find a strategy that would also work.
Top Target: Jayden Daniels
Jayden Daniels averaged 23.7 fantasy points per game last season in games he both started and finished, which ranked third-best among all quarterbacks. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were the two quarterbacks ahead of him, but they both set career lows in rushing attempts per game. Those rates typically decline with age. The Commanders gave Daniels significant upgrades with Deebo Samuel Sr. at wide receiver and Laremy Tunsil at left tackle. Those moves could be enough to move Daniels to the top of the quarterback ranks by the end of the season.
Possible Targets: Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Brock Purdy
Round 4, Pick 46: Draft a wide receiver
This team is relatively balanced to this point, so it makes sense to pick the best available player. The top 15 running backs are all off the board at this point, and it’s possible to add a high-upside rookie running back in the next round. There are still several excellent wide receiver options on the board, so wide receiver is the clear option in this round, even if you didn’t follow the usual plan in the first three rounds. There are no quarterbacks or tight ends worth considering in Round 4.
Top Target: Rashee Rice
Rice slowly but surely worked his way to the top of the Chiefs' depth chart as a rookie and was a worthy fantasy starter more often than not after the first month of the season. He was on pace to be a league-winner before, finishing with the second-most fantasy points for a wide receiver in the first three weeks of the season. A torn LCL cost him the rest of the 2024 season. He appears on pace to play at the start of the league year, but he might take a little bit before he can play at his usual level. He will also face more competition for targets from an improved Xavier Worthy and a healthy Hollywood Brown. He has the top-10 upside but could also fall behind in the target pecking order, making it harder to start him.
Possible Targets: D.J. Moore, Jameson Williams, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, DeVonta Smith
Round 5, Pick 51: Draft a running back
It's too early to consider any other quarterbacks or tight ends. This leaves running back and wide receiver as the only options. While there are plenty of strong wide receiver options on the board, a lot of them should also be available in Round 6, but the top running back options available now will not be available in the next round. That makes running back the top choice to keep this a well-rounded roster.
Top Target: RJ Harvey
Harvey was arguably the biggest winner in the draft at running back because he landed on a team where his skill set could lead to fantasy stardom. Denver Broncos running backs have caught 214 passes over the past two years, which is more than any other team, and Harvey is projected to be the Broncos' primary receiving back. A top-ten season is within the realm of possibility if he dominates the passing down role and also averages at least eight carries per game. However, the Broncos' backfield could remain volatile despite the addition of Harvey.
Possible Targets: Quinshon Judkins, D'Andre Swift, Aaron Jones Sr., Tony Pollard, Jaylen Warren
Round 6, Pick 70: Draft a wide receiver
As mentioned last round, there is a clear tier drop after the running backs selected in Round 5, while there are plenty of wide receivers with top-15 potential as a highly drafted rookie, or players who were top 15 at some point in their career. Wide receiver should be the easy choice this round.
Top Target: Tetairoa McMillan
McMillan is a prototypical X receiver and one of the best X receivers coming out of college in a long time. His 89.5 receiving grade is the fifth-best among Power-Five receivers 6-foot-2 or taller in the last decade. The only receiver with more receiving yards during that time is CeeDee Lamb. He was selected eighth overall by the Carolina Panthers, and could be their top target earner as a rookie. He joins Dave Canales’ offense, who has a history of his X receivers reaching double-digit touchdowns in both his only season with Mike Evans and D.K. Metcalf twice. He is the safest rookie wide receiver option in both redraft and dynasty leagues.
Possible Targets: Chris Olave, Jaylen Waddle, Jordan Addison, Deebo Samuel, Chris Godwin
Round 7, Pick 75: Draft a wide receiver
This is a similar range where wide receivers are the strength of the draft. Running backs like Tony Pollard and Tyrone Tracy Jr. are drafted in this range, but it’s clear they will be sharing their respective backfields with Tyjae Spears and Cameron Skattebo, both of whom are available a few rounds later. Because there are so many running backs fighting for a starting job or in a committee, you can find some options in later rounds, while building on wide receivers who have proven NFL success but are more risky due to past injury history.
Top Target: Chris Olave
Olave has the talent to be a top-15 fantasy wide receiver. He scored the 16th-most fantasy points in 2023, and his PFF receiving grade has been at least 82.0 each season. The Saints added Kellen Moore as their head coach, and his slot receivers have been a consistent value in fantasy football. Olave is the wide receiver best suited to line up in the slot. However, Olave has five documented concussions. This makes him both more likely than the typical player to suffer another concussion and more likely to miss significant time if he suffers another one. After Derek Carr’s retirement, the Saints are stuck between three young and unproven quarterback options, which is also working against Olave.
Possible Targets: Jordan Addison, Deebo Samuel, Chris Godwin, Jakobi Meyers, Jerry Jeudy
Round 8, Pick 94: Draft a running back
After focusing on wide receivers in back-to-back rounds, it’s time to turn back to the running back position. You can ideally draft two backs who are in committees with high upside, and the first should come at this pick.
Top Target: Jaylen Warren
Jaylen Warren has been a borderline fantasy starter when healthy for the past two seasons and is projected to continue in that role for the 2025 season. His fantasy upside is increased by the possibility of maintaining a significant role over new competition, Kaleb Johnson, primarily in the passing game and potentially in the run game. However, there's also the risk that he could lose playing time if Johnson outperforms the previous competition, Najee Harris. This leaves Warren's fantasy value somewhat volatile and dependent on how the competition plays out.
Possible Targets: Jordan Mason, Rhamondre Stevenson, Cam Skattebo, J.K. Dobbins, Bhayshul Tuten
Round 9, Pick 99: Draft a wide receiver
Round 9 is truly a toss-up. Every draft is different, and various runs on running backs or wide receivers could likely lead to one position being a strength over the other. For the purposes of this draft, we’ll lean toward wide receiver, as there are still a few players who are expected to be the top wide receiver on their team available, which speaks to the strength of the wide receiver position.
Top Target: Jakobi Meyers
Jakobi Meyers went from an undrafted rookie to becoming the top wide receiver for the New England Patriots and then the Las Vegas Raiders. He’s been able to propel himself to a low-end WR2 these last two seasons, despite his situation not always being perfect. The Raiders made several changes to their offense this offseason. The biggest positive for Meyers is the Geno Smith addition, giving Meyers a better quarterback than he’s seen throughout his time as a starter in the NFL. This should lead to a higher touchdown total than last season. However, the team added Ashton Jeanty, which almost certainly will lead the Raiders to run more than last season, leading to Meyers running fewer routes. The Raiders also spent several draft picks on wide receivers who will contribute this season. If they have normal rookie seasons, Meyers is fine, but if someone exceeds expectations, then Meyers could fall down the target pecking order.
Possible Targets: Matthew Golden, Brandon Aiyuk, Stefon Diggs, Darnell Mooney, Josh Downs
Round 10, Pick 118: Draft a running back
As mentioned two rounds ago, it would be wise to pick a second high-upside running back in a committee. A big reason to choose one here and not wait another round is to ensure you draft Jordan Mason, who is the closest thing to a must-draft player at this point in the offseason, given his high-quality performance with the San Francisco 49ers. He plays in a high-quality offense with the Minnesota Vikings.
Top Target: Jordan Mason
Jordan Mason quickly went from undrafted rookie to the top backup running back for the 49ers, despite the team consistently spending mid-to-late round draft picks on running backs. An injury to Christian McCaffrey allowed Mason to be a starter to begin the 2024 season, and he was sixth in fantasy points per game over five weeks before he started dealing with injuries. Mason was traded to the Minnesota Vikings, where Aaron Jones Sr. is the main running back. The two will likely be in a committee that includes Mason receiving significant work in rushing situations while Jones gets more in passing situations. Jones is over 30 years old and has dealt with multiple injuries over the last two seasons. While Mason might not score enough weekly to start in fantasy in normal situations, if Jones is dealing with an injury or is showing more signs of age, we could see Jones as a weekly player to start.
Possible Targets: J.K. Dobbins, Bhayshul Tuten, Tyjae Spears, Braelon Allen, Roschon Johnson
Round 11, Pick 123: Draft a wide receiver
All of the starting running backs, as well as those in committees or fighting for a starting job, are off the board at this point. That means the strength at this point of the draft is at wide receiver, as there are a number of veterans to be optimistic about, or rookies to pick between.
Top Target: Darnell Mooney
Darnell Mooney had a strong start to his career with the Chicago Bears for a fifth-round pick, but then Chicago moved him to the slot, which didn’t end up working out. The Atlanta Falcons signed him in free agency prior to the 2024 season, moving him back to the outside, which caused him to be a frustrating WR3 option for fantasy teams. He had seven games with 80 or more receiving yards, and his career-high five touchdowns occurred during those seven games. However, he was held to three receptions for less than 40 yards in six of his games. Michael Penix Jr. has taken over as the Falcons' starting quarterback, and his quality of play will determine Mooney’s fantasy value. In a small sample, Penix has thrown deep at a high rate with high deep accuracy, which could lead to a huge season by Mooney, but if Penix regresses, then Mooney will be a fantasy backup.
Possible Targets: Marvin Mims Jr., Emeka Egbuka, Luther Burden III, Michael Pittman Jr., Christian Kirk
Round 12, Pick 142: Draft a wide receiver
This team is relatively balanced between wide receiver and running back. This team doesn’t need a backup quarterback, as it should be easy enough to pick one up off waivers when the starter has a bye week. If you really want backup, you can wait even longer. For this article, we’ll pick a wide receiver first, followed by running back, but it’s fine to flip that order if there is a running back you want.
Top Target: Marvin Mims Jr.
Marvin Mims Jr. enters the 2025 season as a late-round fantasy football dart throw with intriguing potential. After a quiet start to his career with the Denver Broncos, Mims showed flashes late last season, particularly during a seven-game stretch where he was 23rd in PPR points per game with 15.5. He posted an elite 89.7 receiving grade during those seven games, finishing with a target on 30.4% of his routes, which led to 4.25 yards per route run. After being a deep threat earlier in his career, his average depth of target fell to 4.2 yards. His role expanded significantly in the playoffs, highlighted by a 69% snap rate. While the Broncos' wide receiver room has become more crowded, no one has the same size and speed as Mims in their offense. Mims' fantasy value hinges on his early-season snap rate – if he sees the field, he could be a solid fantasy starter, but otherwise, he’s a player you can drop early.
Possible Targets: Michael Pittman Jr., Christian Kirk, Jayden Higgins, Hollywood Brown, DeMario Douglas
Round 13, Pick 147: Draft a running back
As mentioned in the previous round, it’s good to draft a running back here, or a wide receiver if you pick a running back in Round 12.
Top Target: J.K. Dobbins
J.K. Dobbins has seen a rollercoaster of a career, battling injuries and changing roles while also showcasing flashes of brilliance. Last season with the Los Angeles Chargers, he posted his best fantasy season with 14.8 points per game, good for 18th. His future with the Denver Broncos is uncertain, as he joins a crowded backfield with varied usage possibilities under Sean Payton's system, which historically has utilized multiple backs in different roles. Dobbins' fantasy relevance will largely hinge on how Denver structures its rushing attack and whether he can secure a consistent role, likely on early downs, although he could be lost in a rotation given the team's running back depth. While his range of outcomes is vast and projecting his weekly production will be challenging, there's a possibility he finishes as a top-24 fantasy running back in points per game if he can carve out a substantial role.
Possible Targets: Braelon Allen, Roschon Johnson, Trey Benson, Tyler Allgeier, Keaton Mitchell
Round 14–18: Fill Depth
Use any additional picks to draft a kicker and team defense if required; otherwise, stock up on running backs and wide receivers.
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