- Brian Thomas Jr. found his rhythm: Over the last seven weeks of the 2024 season, Thomas consistently scored fantasy points and had the third-most points among wide receivers during that stretch.
- George Kittle is a top priority in the third round: There is a massive dropoff between the top three tight ends and everyone else at the position, making Kittle a hot commodity at this point in the draft.
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Estimated reading time: 13 minutes
This perfect draft strategy for 12-team, single-quarterback, redraft, PPR fantasy football leagues uses a consensus of current average draft positions (ADPs) from ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo! to deliver a round-by-round guide for managers picking tenth overall. To find more information about any player mentioned in this article, click on the player's name to find their fantasy football player profile.
Last updated: Friday, August 15
Round 1, Pick 10: Draft a wide receiver
Anyone picking from the middle of the first round to the end is either picking their top available wide receiver or a running back like Christian McCaffrey, Ashton Jeanty or Derrick Henry. There are six wide receivers ranked third to eighth, where seemingly no two analysts have the receivers in the same order. All of them could end up as the top overall wide receiver if everything goes well, but all of them are going through some changes with some combination of new play callers, new quarterbacks and new competition for targets. The risk for them is still lower than the risk for the running backs, so it’s best to go with the top available wide receiver.
Top Target: Nico Collins
Collins was a third-round pick who broke out in 2023. He’s posted back-to-back seasons with PFF receiving grades in the 90s. Last season, he averaged 19 fantasy points per game when removing the games he was either injured, returning from injury, or Week 18 when the Texans had already secured their playoff spot. This would have been good for third-best among wide receivers. If anything, he will have less competition for targets this season without Tank Dell or Stefon Diggs. The major problem for Collins has been injuries, as he’s missed at least two and an average of four games per season.
Possible Targets: Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Nabers, Drake London, A.J. Brown, Tee Higgins
Round 2, Pick 15: Draft a wide receiver
It’s too early to draft a quarterback at this pick. The first and second tier of running backs are typically gone, so it’s unlikely there is a value at that position. That means the decision is between a top wide receiver and Brock Bowers, if he’s still available. The gap between Bowers and George Kittle is relatively small compared to the gap between Brian Thomas Jr. and the wide receivers available in the third round, making Thomas the better pick.
Top Target: Brian Thomas Jr.
Brian Thomas Jr. had a strong start to his rookie season and ended it among the league’s best fantasy receivers. In his final seven games, he gained at least 13 PPR points each week and averaged 21.5 points, third behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Puka Nacua. He played at least 84% of his team’s offensive snaps in all but one of those games. The team added Travis Hunter in the draft, and he will see a decent target rate, but typically, two great wide receivers can co-exist as long as there isn’t much more competition for targets. Thomas led all wide receivers in yards per route run out of the slot with 3.12, and new offensive coordinator Liam Coen has found a lot of success with his slot receivers in the past. An increased role in the slot could lead Thomas to remain among the top wide receivers in fantasy football.
Possible Targets: Drake London, A.J. Brown, Tee Higgins, Garrett Wilson, Ladd McConkey
Round 3, Pick 34: Draft a tight end
It is generally helpful to select a tight end early or a quarterback early. This allows you only to pick one player at those positions and place them in your lineup each week. That gives you more roster flexibility to add additional high upside options at running back and wide receiver, increasing your odds of selecting this year’s breakout star. We can be more confident in the late-round quarterbacks this season relative to the tight ends, and it can also be easier to select which quarterback to start each week based on matchups. While a tight end could have been an option in Round 2, the gap between those tight ends and Kittle is small, so it made sense to wait for Kittle here.
Top Target: George Kittle
George Kittle has arguably been the best tight end in the NFL during his career. His run blocking has been the best, and his numbers are better than Travis Kelce on a per-play basis. However, the 49ers‘ run-first philosophy mixed with Kittle’s injury history has left Kittle running fewer routes than other elite tight ends. He’s made up for it in recent seasons with Brock Purdy, whose ability to find Kittle down the field led to more big plays from Kittle than any other tight end in recent seasons. This makes him a clear top-three fantasy tight end, but his age, mixed with a chance his average depth of target decreasing, makes him the clear third option between him, Brock Bowers and Trey McBride.
Possible Targets: T.J. Hockenson, Sam LaPorta, David Njoku, Tucker Kraft, Dalton Kincaid
Round 4, Pick 39: Draft a running back
This team avoided running back in the first three rounds, so it will make sense to pick two running backs in the next three rounds to make up for it. It will be harder to find two running backs to like later, so it makes sense to pick the first one in this round.
Top Target: Kenneth Walker III
Kenneth Walker III has graded among the best running backs in the league, including a 91.3 rushing grade last season. His 0.42 avoided tackles per attempt last season were the most in PFF’s 19 years of statistics for all running backs with at least 50 carries. The next-most with any player with at least 150 carries in a season was 0.31, which is a tie that includes 2014 Marshawn Lynch and 2020 Nick Chubb. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak will have an offense that plays to Walker’s strengths with his zone scheme and will prioritize getting him the football more than last season. However, he’s missed 10 games over the previous three seasons due to injury, and his play was negatively affected in several more while playing through injury. If he can stay healthy, he will have his best fantasy season yet, but staying healthy is a big if.
Possible Targets: Omarion Hampton, RJ Harvey, Alvin Kamara, D'Andre Swift, James Conner
Round 5, Pick 58: Draft a wide receiver
The fifth round is generally a great time to pick a wide receiver, as a lot of the three-down and established two-down running backs are off the board. It’s too early for a quarterback, and there are several great wide receiver options on the board. It’s OK to consider Travis Hunter, but after picking Brian Thomas Jr. in Round 2, it could put you at a disadvantage if both are in your lineup. While this is fine in best ball, in redraft leagues, when you’re facing one opponent, it could hurt your odds of winning. Therefore, for this pick, we go to the next best wide receiver option.
Top Target: Jameson Williams
Jameson Williams was a highly talented college player, but an ACL injury and suspension led to a quiet first two seasons in the NFL. Detroit started using Williams more on short and intermediate passes in 2024, allowing him to take advantage of his speed after the catch. By mid-season, he consistently gained at least 8 PPR points per game, making him a reliable fantasy starter. He accomplished this despite Detroit having several other offensive weapons. The Lions have a new offensive coordinator who has always given a lot of praise to Williams, which could further increase his fantasy value this season.
Possible Targets: Travis Hunter, Tetairoa McMillan, DeVonta Smith, Chris Olave, Jaylen Waddle
Round 6, Pick 63: Draft a running back
Part of the reason we could pick three wide receivers in the first five rounds is that RJ Harvey is typically falling to the middle of the sixth round. Harvey took all but one snap with the starters on first and second downs in their first preseason game. While his usage in the regular season is unlikely to be as good, his quality of play, mixed with playing half the snaps, and his likely high receptions total make him a worthy option for your weekly fantasy lineup.
Top Target: RJ Harvey
Harvey was arguably the biggest winner in the draft at running back because he landed on a team where his skill set could lead to fantasy stardom. Denver Broncos running backs have caught 214 passes over the past two years, which is more than any other team, and Harvey is projected to be the Broncos' primary receiving back. A top-ten season is within the realm of possibility if he dominates the passing down role and also averages at least eight carries per game. However, the Broncos' backfield could remain volatile despite the addition of Harvey.
Possible Targets: D'Andre Swift, Aaron Jones Sr., Jordan Mason, TreVeyon Henderson, Jaylen Warren
Round 7, Pick 82: Draft a running back
The next several picks are about adding depth at running back and wide receiver. The top eight quarterbacks by ADP are long gone, and the only quarterback with an ADP in the seventh or eighth round worth considering is Brock Purdy. This is too early for him to be a value, and he is unlikely to be available in the eighth round. The wait at the position will continue for a few more rounds, while you can pick the best available player. While running back is listed here, if your draft has gone particularly running back or wide receiver-heavy early, it’s fine to pivot to whoever is the best value relative to their tier.
Top Target: Jaylen Warren
Jaylen Warren has been a borderline fantasy starter when healthy for the past two seasons and is projected to continue in that role for the 2025 season. His fantasy upside is increased by the possibility of maintaining a significant role over new competition, Kaleb Johnson, primarily in the passing game and potentially in the run game. However, there's also the risk that he could lose playing time if Johnson outperforms the previous competition, Najee Harris. This leaves Warren's fantasy value somewhat volatile and dependent on how the competition plays out.
Possible Targets: Jordan Mason, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Brian Robinson Jr., Rhamondre Stevenson, Javonte Williams
Round 8, Pick 87: Draft a wide receiver
The best running backs available here will also be available in the next round, making wide receiver the best selection here.
Top Target: Stefon Diggs
Stefon Diggs has a decade of experience in the NFL, and most of that time has been spent as a top-20 fantasy wide receiver. He is the New England Patriots‘ new top receiver, although he missed half of last season after suffering an ACL tear, which could cost him the start of the 2025 campaign. Even when Diggs is ready to play again, he might not be the same player. He will turn 32 years old before the end of the season, an age at which wide receivers tend to decline, even ignoring the injury. Diggs should be able to gain some chemistry with Drake Maye, who has been very accurate on shorter passes, which pairs well with Diggs' low average depth of target in recent seasons. Diggs has top-20 fantasy potential, but he could also be a non-factor due to the injury.
Possible Targets: Deebo Samuel, Jakobi Meyers, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, Matthew Golden
Round 9, Pick 106: Draft a running back
The strength in the ninth round is at running back, as this is the last time to add a running back with a decent chance of leading their team in carries. A lot of the running backs selected so far have been high-risk, high-reward options, so it makes sense to have multiple backups in case one of the players doesn’t end up working out.
Top Target: Jordan Mason
Jordan Mason quickly went from undrafted rookie to the top backup running back for the 49ers, despite the team consistently spending mid-to-late round draft picks on running backs. An injury to Christian McCaffrey allowed Mason to be a starter to begin the 2024 season, and he was sixth in fantasy points per game over five weeks before he started dealing with injuries. Mason was traded to the Minnesota Vikings, where Aaron Jones Sr. is the main running back. The two will likely be in a committee that includes Mason receiving significant work in rushing situations, while Jones gets more in passing situations. Jones is over 30 years old and has dealt with multiple injuries over the last two seasons. While Mason might not score enough weekly to start in fantasy in normal situations, if Jones is dealing with an injury or is showing more signs of age, we could see Jones as a weekly player to start.
Possible Targets: Rhamondre Stevenson, Tank Bigsby, Dylan Sampson, Jaydon Blue, Jerome Ford
Round 10, Pick 111: Draft a wide receiver
This team has focused a lot on running back with recent picks, so it makes sense to turn toward wide receiver. All of the clear top wide receivers on teams are gone, but there are plenty of wide receivers who are expected to receive a lot of targets this season. These players might not turn into weekly fantasy starters, but they can plug into your fantasy starting lineup if the matchup is right, or if bye weeks or injuries strike your starters.
Top Target: Emeka Egbuka
Egbuka was a very talented receiver out of Ohio State, but he was consistently the second wide receiver in Ohio State’s offense. He averaged 2.75 yards per route run against zone defenses over the last three seasons, which places him over the 95th percentile among FBS receivers. With the Buccaneers, he will likely be the third option in the short term. The Buccaneers are one of six teams with two wide receivers with a PFF receiving grade above 84 over the last three seasons. While he might eventually become a top receiver on the team and in the league, the odds are stacked against him this season.
Possible Targets: Darnell Mooney, Josh Downs, Marvin Mims Jr., Michael Pittman Jr., Christian Kirk
Round 11, Pick 130: Draft a quarterback
The wait to pick a quarterback ends here. Typically, 15 quarterbacks are off the board, which is fine because there are multiple players available who have the upside to be top-10 players. The gap between QB6 and QB22 in terms of projected fantasy value is relatively small compared to past seasons, indicating the depth at the quarterback position and the coaches who have been able to elevate quarterbacks in their offenses. The 11th-13th rounds are typically a time for a lot of teams that waited for quarterbacks to pick their starter, so now is the time to pick the first of two players.
Top Target: J.J. McCarthy
J.J. McCarthy, after being selected by the Minnesota Vikings with the 10th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, is poised to be their starting quarterback for the 2025 season following a missed rookie year due to injury. Despite the risks associated with first-year starting quarterbacks with limited rushing upside, McCarthy benefits from an excellent offensive system led by Kevin O’Connell. The Vikings' quarterbacks have been consistent top-10 fantasy options in recent seasons, even when Kirk Cousins was injured. The Vikings also have a strong supporting cast featuring Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, all of whom put McCarthy in a prime position for fantasy success and make him a must-start in superflex leagues and a valuable backup in single-quarterback leagues.
Possible Targets: Trevor Lawrence, Michael Penix Jr., Drake Maye, Bryce Young, Tua Tagovailoa
Round 12, Pick 135: Draft a wide receiver
After picking several high-risk running backs, it’s better to add another running back than another wide receiver at this point, as your wide receivers should be safer in comparison.
Top Target: Dylan Sampson
Sampson was well-rounded, regardless of the situation against SEC opponents. Our draft guide notes several positive aspects, including his balance, footwork, vision and explosiveness. The big downside of Sampson is his size. At the combine, he measured 5-foot-8 and weighed 200 pounds. Dion Lewis is the only running back with over 2,000 snaps at that size in the past decade. His cleanest path to playing time with the Cleveland Browns could be as a receiver. He had the highest receiving grade of the Browns running backs and highest yards per route run, albeit both were in college compared to numbers in the pros. The biggest concern for all of the Browns' running backs is the offensive line.
Possible Targets: Jerome Ford, Braelon Allen, Bhayshul Tuten, Roschon Johnson, Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Round 13, Pick 154: Draft a quarterback
The wait for a second quarterback ends here. This range has a wide range of options, from veterans who have finished as top-10 quarterbacks in the past, to up-and-coming quarterbacks and Trevor Lawrence, who should follow in Baker Mayfield’s career path thanks to Liam Coen and the Travis Hunter addition.
Top Target: Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence has been a somewhat inconsistent fantasy quarterback for the Jaguars over his four seasons, experiencing a peak in 2022 with 25 passing and five rushing touchdowns, but seeing his value fluctuate due to varying play quality and injuries. While he boasts a high big-time throw rate, averaging 1.8 per game over the last two seasons, he also struggles with a high turnover-worthy throw rate. Entering the 2025 season under new head coach Liam Coen, there's optimism for improvement, drawing comparisons to Baker Mayfield‘s success in Coen's system, potentially boosting Lawrence's fantasy output. Brian Thomas Jr.’s emergence, as well as the Travis Hunter addition, adds to the reason for optimism. Lawrence is a high-upside second option in both single quarterback and superflex leagues.
Possible Targets: Bryce Young, Tua Tagovailoa, Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford, Sam Darnold
Round 14–18: Fill Depth
Use any additional picks to draft a kicker and team defense if required; otherwise, stock up on running backs and wide receivers.
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