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2021 NFL Draft: Fantasy Football Rookie Scouting Report - 75 Player Profiles

Welcome to the 2021 Fantasy Football Rookie Scouting Report! This colossal resource was compiled by the intrepid fantasy football minds at PFF to offer essential fantasy insight and analysis into the 2021 NFL rookie class

We've profiled — and ranked — the top-75 (or so) fantasy names in this year's class, focusing on metrics that have proven to be predictive for fantasy purposes, including dominator rating, breakout age, target share, air yards share, yards after the catch, quarterback rushing and receiver slot splitsEach profile is broken down into five categories: overview, measurables, workout metrics, fantasy outlook and player statistics. 

View PFF's 2021 NFL Draft position rankings:

QB | RB | WR | TE | T | iOL | DI | EDGE | LB | CB | S

With dynasty rookie drafts quickly approaching and best ball drafts already in full swing, our intention is to build off PFF’s excellent 2021 NFL Draft Guide in order to hone in on each rookie's short- and long-term fantasy outlook. These rankings were consolidated by PFF consensus and will be updated once landing spots are determined by the 2021 NFL Draft

A few statistical notes: Dominator rating for receivers considers the number of touchdowns and receiving yards a player commands within his own offense. Breakout age is the age at which a receiver reaches a 20% dominator rating for the first time. For tight ends, the benchmark is set at 15%.

When a receiver produces at a young age, it’s a solid indicator that he will continue his stretch of production into the pros. Breakout age isn’t as significant for running backs, but dominator rating still provides important insight and considers both rushing and receiving yards, along with TDs.

Without further ado: Here is PFF's 2021 Fantasy Rookie Scouting Report. Enjoy!

1. RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

Overview
School Alabama
Position Running Back
Class Senior
Age 23
Player comp Matt Forte
Positional rank RB1
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-2 97th
Weight 230 89th
Arm 34.25 99th
Hand 10 94th
Workout Metrics

N/A

Fantasy Outlook

Alabama’s Najee Harris was nothing but a stud since taking over the starting job in 2019. He owns PFF’s third-highest rushing grade (93.3) and ranks first in rushing touchdowns (39) and fourth in forced missed tackles (128) over that span.

Some thought Harris erred in not coming out of school a year earlier, but he had a terrific senior season, racking up 1,464 rushing yards and 26 touchdowns on 252 carries. He subsequently generated a 32% dominator rating, which is utterly impressive considering all of Alabama's talent.

Previous Crimson Tide running backs who recently made the leap to the NFL, such as Josh Jacobs and Damien Harris, never put up a dominator rating higher than 18% in college.

It's important to remember that before taking over the Alabama backfield, the underclassman had been stealing touches from Jacobs and Harris. And he was arguably just as good — if not better — than those running backs.

A big part of Harris’ senior-year production stemmed from receiving work. His 43 receptions on 53 targets were career-highs and ranked third in the nation at the running back position. He dropped only one target and forced a league-high 22 missed tackles after the catch.

With an all-encompassing skill set and desirable size, Harris has fantasy bell-cow back written all over him at the next level, though his lack of top-notch speed could keep him from being elite.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Carries Yards Yards per attempt Yards after contact per attempt Missed tackles forced per attempt Receptions Target share Dominator rating
2020 89.8 254 1,465 5.8 3.2 0.28 43 12% 32%
2019 88.1 213 1,243 5.8 3.6 0.28 28 9% 24%
2018 90.6 119 785 6.6 4.4 0.31 6 0% 7%
Career 94.6 647 3,863 6.0 3.7 0.29 81 6% 18%
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The Pittsburgh Steelers drafted the next version of Le’Veon Bell in Najee Harris with their first-round selection in the 2021 NFL Draft. With similar size, pass-catching chops and workhorse traits to Bell, Harris should be the Steel Curtain’s next three-down fantasy bell cow.

His absolute floor is 250 touches, assuming he remains healthy. But don’t be surprised in the slightest to see him hit 300 touches. Bell averaged 24.9 touches per game in this offense from 2013 to 2017. A healthy James Conner averaged 19 touches per game from 2018 to 2020.

The major concern for Harris and the Pittsburgh offense is the team's offensive line, but he should rise above those issues. Volume trumps efficiency at the running back position in fantasy football. Since 2012, the correlation coefficient between RB fantasy points scored and touches (0.72) drastically outweighs the same metric between RB fantasy points scored and PFF run-blocking grade (0.26).

With the return of tackle Zach Banner (lost to an ACL injury in 2020) and the addition of rookie center Kendrick Green (replacement for Maurkice Pouncey), the Steelers’ offensive line also has a chance to be much-improved from a season ago.

The Alabama product is going to be fed with touches in the Pittsburgh offense, putting him firmly in high-end RB2 fantasy territory. He’s easily a top-15 fantasy RB in 2021.

2. WR Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

Overview
School LSU
Position Wide Receiver
Class Junior
Age 21
Player comp Justin Blackmon
Positional rank WR1
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot 42nd
Weight 201 49th
Arm 30.75 18th
Hand 9.63 75th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.38 89th
Shuttle 3.98 97th
Vertical jump 41 96th
Broad jump 11 96th
Three-cone 7.00 41st
Bench press 23 97th
Fantasy Outlook

Ja’Marr Chase would have certainly been the first receiver off the board in the 2020 NFL Draft had he declared. The LSU wideout took home the Biletnikoff Award as college football's top wide receiver in 2019.

At just 19 years old, Chase led the nation in receiving yards (1,780), touchdowns (20) and receptions on targets 20-plus yards downfield (24). He also was uber-efficient, ranking seventh in average yards per route run (3.52) and sixth in PFF receiving grade (91.3).

Most impressive is the fact that Chase thrived against top talent. He went for 221 receiving yards and two touchdowns in LSU's national championship victory over the Clemson Tigers.

The superstar receiver also showed that he will have no problem overcoming press coverage at the next level. He faced the third-most targets against press looks and posted the No. 1 PFF receiving grade (92.2) against it.

And although Chase was unable to directly improve his draft stock after sitting out the 2020 season, former LSU teammate Justin Jefferson indirectly inflated it for him. The Minnesota Vikings first-round selection put together arguably the best season from a rookie wide receiver — and Chase was the more productive of the two when they played together in Baton Rouge.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2019 91.1 84 1,780 22% 3.52 8.1 17.2% 14.3 32%
2018 69.4 23 313 9% 1.89 2.4 5.7% 10.9 9%
Career 90.1 107 2,093 17% 3.12 6.9 14.4% 13.6 22%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
28% 33% 19.5

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The idea of reuniting Joe Burrow with former LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase was too good to pass up. When the two last played together in 2019, Chase was the best vertical receiver in the nation. He earned a near-perfect PFF receiving grade (99.0) on targets of 20-plus yards, totaling 24 receptions, 860 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns on deep targets alone.

Chase has a special ability to win at the catch point and pluck the ball out of thin air. On 26 catchable deep targets (tied for third-most), he had just one drop.

With A.J. Green out of the picture, replaced with a more capable field-stretcher in Chase, Burrow’s deep-ball efficiency will skyrocket in Year 2.

Chase can effortlessly slide into the starting lineup opposite Tee Higgins on the outside and vacuum up a plethora of vacated air yards and end-zone targets. Green led the team in air yards share (31%) and team end-zone share (30%) in 2020 but did next to nothing with his high-value opportunities.

Although Chase,  Higgins and Tyler Boyd will potentially see anywhere between an 18%-21% target share across the board — based on similar splits from the Cincinnati Bengals’ top three wideouts last season — Chase should be the favorite to command the vast majority of high-value looks that translate to the most fantasy points.

The rookie should be ranked as a low-to-middle WR2 for the 2021 season, but nobody should be surprised to see him blow the doors off the league the minute he steps onto the field.

3. RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos

Overview
School North Carolina
Position Running Back
Class Junior
Age 21
Player Comp Chris Carson
Positional Rank RB3
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-foot-10 29th
Weight 212 46th
Arm 30.88 47th
Hand 9.38 66th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.55 46th
Shuttle 4.09 91st
Vertical Jump 36 68th
Broad Jump 123 79th
Three-Cone 6.97 64th
Bench Press 22 76th
Fantasy Outlook

This past season, North Carolina’s Javonte Williams earned the highest rushing grade (95.9) in PFF College history. The north-south runner led the nation with 75 forced missed tackles (48% missed tackle rate — a PFF record) and ranked second in PFF’s elusive rating and in rushing attempts of 15-plus yards (27).

When factoring in Williams' nine broken tackles on 24 catches, his aggregate total missed tackle percentage (46%) is 11 percentage points higher than the next running back. The missed tackle rate is eerily similar to that of Washington Football Team running back Antonio Gibson during his final season at Memphis. The only difference is that Gibson totaled just 71 touches compared to Williams' 181.

Williams’ career (21%) and final season (29%) dominator rating don’t seem impressive until you consider that he played alongside another NFL-caliber running back, Michael Carter, for his entire tenure at North Carolina.

Carter is going to garner most of the praise as the better player when it comes to pass-catching chops, but Williams showed throughout his career that he can more than hold his own as a receiver.

Williams owns PFF’s third-highest receiving grade (83.9) among the 2021 class dating back to 2018.

If a team decides to spend a high Day 2 pick on Williams, we should expect him to finally see the type of workload that will unleash his talent. He possesses the explosiveness, size and quickness (90th-percentile short shuttle) to win at the next level. He just needs commitment from an NFL team that he'll get enough work to potentially reach his high ceiling.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Carries Yards Yards per attempt Yards after contact per attempt Missed tackles forced per attempt Receptions Target share Dominator rating
2020 94.3 157 1,168 7.4 4.6 0.48 24 10.1% 29%
2019 89.6 165 934 5.7 4.2 0.34 17 5.8% 14%
2018 77.0 43 224 5.2 3.4 0.23 8 7.4% 17%
Career 95.4 365 2,326 6.4 4.3 0.39 49 7.8% 21%
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Javonte Williams graded out as PFF’s No. 1 inside zone/power runner (92.3) last season, and that makes him a perfect fit for the Denver Broncos’ offense. The Broncos finished second in inside zone/power runs in 2020.

With Denver spending a high Day 2 pick (trading up for 35th overall) to add Williams, a tackle-breaking machine, we should expect him to finally see the type of workload that will put his talent on full display. Melvin Gordon III is entering the final year of his contract, so his days appear to be numbered in the Mile High City.

Williams, who ranked second in the nation in runs of 15-plus yards in 2020, boasts explosiveness that should help him usurp Gordon as the team’s lead back sooner rather than later. He can be viewed as a low-end RB2 — ahead of the veteran — heading into 2021.

Expect to see Williams and Gordon split touches 40-60 (that was the snap split between Phillip Lindsay and Gordon last season) or even 50-50 to start the year, but be prepared for the rookie to make the most of every opportunity. After all, Williams spent nearly his entire college career playing in a committee back approach, so he’s more than up for the challenge.

He saw a 48% snap share in his final season at UNC while sharing the backfield with Michael Carter. If any running back can stand out in a committee, it’s Williams.

4. RB Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars

Overview
School Clemson
Position Running Back
Class Senior
Age 22.2
Player Comp Cam Akers
Positional Rank RB2
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-foot-10 41th
Weight 215 56th
Arm 31.13 58th
Hand 9.38 66th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.41 87th
Shuttle N/A N/A
Vertical Jump 34 34th
Broad Jump 10’8” 93rd
Three-Cone N/A N/A
Bench Press 18 42nd
Fantasy Outlook

Etienne chose to return to Clemson for his senior year, and his efficiency metrics took a step back, along with his offensive line’s blocking, from the stellar levels of the prior two seasons. Etienne was more involved in the passing game in his final season, posting an elite 12% target share and enhancing his profile in PPR formats.

Etienne's ability to function as a workhorse back stands out as the biggest concern with his fantasy value, and his Pro Day weight of 215 pounds goes a long way to mitigate those concerns. Whether he will play at that weight is an open question, but his 4.41-second 40-yard dash proved that it didn’t negatively affect his speed.

The 22-year-old is extremely well-rounded, according to our advanced stats, with a well-above-average rushing grade and a top-notch receiving grade. He also falls into the top quintile of performance with his ability to force missed tackles and generate yards after contact. There's a good reason why Etienne is the top running back on the PFF 2021 NFL Draft Big Board in an increasingly pass-heavy NFL.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Carries Yards Yards per attempt Yards after contact per attempt Missed tackles forced per attempt Receptions Target share Dominator rating
2020 82.0 166 923 5.6 3.8 0.27 48 12% 25%
2019 90.5 207 1,614 7.8 5.1 0.44 37 8% 26%
2018 90.1 204 1,655 8.1 4.3 0.25 12 5% 26%
Career 94.6 684 4,956 7.2 4.5 0.32 102 8% 24%
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Etienne was the second rookie selected, one pick behind new Steelers running back Najee Harris. Etienne joins a Jaguars backfield that includes 2020 UDFA James Robinson and veteran Carlos Hyde. Concerns around his rookie-year workload emerged after head coach Urban Meyer labeled him the third-down back. You shouldn’t buy what Meyer is selling. A team doesn’t draft a running back in the first round as a complementary player, though Etienne could start slower than Harris.

Trevor Lawrence is a good bet to enhance the overall fantasy value of the Jaguars’ backfield, but rookies can sometimes struggle. Etienne’s value boost could correspond with a second-year leap for Lawrence in 2022.

5. TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

Overview
School Florida
Position Tight End
Class Junior
Age 20.5
Player comp Darren Waller
Positional rank TE1
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-6 85th
Weight 245 24th
Arm 33.5 75th
Hand 10.63 99th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.44 99th
Shuttle 4.30 69th
Vertical jump 34 52nd
Broad jump 129 97th
Three-cone 7.12 59th
Bench press 22 70th
Fantasy Outlook

Comparing Kyle Pitts’ 2020 season to other tight ends' performances doesn't do him justice. His PFF grade (96.1) led all tight ends and was the highest mark in the PFF era — better than any wide receiver, too.

The playmaker from Florida is a “tight end” in name only; make no mistake — he is much more of a wide receiver, and an excellent one at that. His ability to create separation with his crisp route running and fluidity against opposing linebackers/defensive backs is top-rate.

Pitts earned a 97.0 PFF receiving grade and averaged 4.91 yards per route run against man coverage. Those ranked first and second, respectively, among all players. No other tight end averaged over 3.0 yards per route run or posted a grade higher than 87.2.

The freakish tight end also has sure hands — he didn't drop any of his 65 targets. He was the only player in college football to have zero drops while commanding at least 65 targets in 2020.

What’s equally impressive is that Pitts produced these outrageous numbers (32% dominator rating) at just 20 years old. He won’t turn 21 until this October.

High-end, age-adjusted production is extremely encouraging for receivers and tight ends as they enter the next level. The guy has it all — he'll be a mismatch nightmare for opposing linebackers and safeties in the NFL.

Pitts’ naysayers will point to the fact that rookie tight ends rarely produce in their first seasons, but I’d argue that no rookie tight end in recent memory fits Pitts' profile.

Banking on him delivering as a rookie might seem like a stretch to some, but the positional advantage he could provide makes him well worth the investment.

Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot Snap % Inline snap percentage aDOT
2020 96.2 43 770 21.4% 3.26 6.0 24% 55% 13.8
2019 70.0 54 649 17.1% 1.84 4.2 26% 56% 9.8
2018 57.7 3 73 4.9% 1.66 16.7 17% 2% 15.0
Career 90.0 100 1,492 16.3% 2.36 5.4 25% 52% 11.8
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
19% 32% 19
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

At first glance, Kyle Pitts‘ landing spot with the Atlanta Falcons might seem less than ideal due to the bevy of other pass-catching weapons on the team. But this offense has the chance to be a top-five unit under the new QB/HC pairing of Matt Ryan and Arthur Smith. The overall efficiency of the offense could make up for the lack of a massive target share.

Smith’s offense in Tennessee ranked second in the NFL in 12 personnel usage (34.3%) last season, so we shouldn’t feel concerned about incumbent tight end Hayden Hurst cannibalizing targets from Pitts. That same offense also heavily relied on play action, which of course boosted Pitts’ numbers at Florida. He was PFF’s second-highest-graded player on play-action throws last season.

Robert Tonyan stumbled into TE1 production without a large target share last season because he was linked to an uber-efficient quarterback. We could easily see the same story play out in Atlanta’s high-powered offense.

Julio Jones could also still be traded — NBC’s Peter King recently set the odds at 60-40 Jones is traded by Labor Day — which would open the target floodgates for Pitts to see an unholy amount of action in the Falcons’ passing attack.

Without Jones, Pitts would arguably become a top-five consensus-ranked tight end option.

6. WR DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles

Overview
School Alabama
Position Wide Receiver
Class Senior
Age 22
Player comp Marvin Harrison
Positional rank WR3
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-1 54th
Weight 170 1st
Arm N/A N/A
Hand N/A N/A
Workout Metrics

N/A

Fantasy Outlook

DeVonta Smith had a season for the ages in 2020, securing 117 catches, 1,856 yards, 23 touchdowns, a national championship and a Heisman Trophy.

Of all the star wide receivers to come out of Alabama over the last decade (Julio JonesAmari CooperCalvin RidleyJerry Jeudy), none of them even came close to achieving the kind of torrid production that  Smith displayed last season. Alabama has been an NFL factory for wide receivers, and Smith has the potential to be the best of this historically great bunch.

Smith exhibited every elite skill necessary to be a stud wide receiver. He possesses ridiculous ball skills to make improbable catches look routine, a natural fluidity to running every single route on the tree, impeccable releases off the line of scrimmage, outstanding body control and game-breaking speed. He possesses all the talent in the world and can be a fantasy football force for the next decade. This is a future fantasy football WR1.

Of course, size is the major and only con when evaluating the former Crimson Tide receiver. He was listed at a generous 170 pounds, and it is fair to question whether he can hold up consistently against physical NFL cornerbacks. However, when size is your only concern about a player — and it has not even hindered him on a college football field – then there is little to be worried about when projecting at the next level. Smith is a versatile game-breaker that just wins all over the field.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 94.9 117 1,856 33.9% 4.39 8.1 36.9% 10.7 44%
2019 82.7 67 1,259  21.7% 3.52 11.2 22.5% 9.3 24.8%
2018 75.0 42 690 14.2% 2.18 7.3 3.3% 11.8 17.4%
2017 55.2 8 160 7.2% 0.88 5.6 3.7% 17.9 14.6%
Career 93.5 234 3,965 21% 3.10 8.8 20.0% 10.9 26.4%

 

Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
28%  47% 21
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Among all the rookies, DeVonta Smith is the most likely to emerge as a No. 1 receiving option by Week 1. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner shredded college football to the tune of 117 catches (first), 1,856 yards (first), 23 touchdowns (first) in 2020. His dynamic skill set is ready to cause nightmares for opposing defensive backs.

Jalen Hurts had the deepest average depth of target in the NFL last season (10.1 yards) and can make the downfield throws that churn out fantasy points. Go get Smith in fantasy football drafts of all shapes and sizes.

7. WR Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens

Overview
School Minnesota
Position Wide Receiver
Class Junior
Age 21
Player comp Justin Jefferson
Positional rank WR4
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot 44th
Weight 190 25th
Arm 33.00 82nd
Hand 9.50 69th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.39 86th
Shuttle
Vertical jump 36 56th
Broad jump 123 62nd
Three-cone
Bench press
Fantasy Outlook

Rashod Bateman is a consensus top-four wide receiver both in terms of where he will be drafted in real life and in fantasy. He has the best release of the wide receivers in the class, makes highlight-reel plays and is great after the catch.

Bateman has experience playing both outside and in the slot, which should help him see the field wherever he’s drafted. He excelled at intermediate-level passes compared to other receivers and is among the most NFL-ready wide receivers in the class.

His most likely landing spots include the Washington Football Team, the Chicago Bears and Baltimore Ravens. The first two teams have established top wide receivers, while the Ravens are a run-first squad. Bateman should become a starter relatively early on in his NFL career, but his target share could be limited. He could cause frustration in PPR leagues but will be worthy of a gamble in DFS every week.

There are a few scenarios that are less likely but would really help his upside in his rookie season. He could be the top wide receiver for the Jaguars, take the second spot in Tennessee or catch passes from Aaron Rodgers. If he lands with one of these teams, his dynasty stock will be on the rise.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 81.1 36 472 43% 3.45 5.3 61.3% 10.4 45%
2019 87.1 60 1,219 29% 3.48 6.1 12.8% 16.7 42%
2018 69.5 51 704 28% 2.06 6.8 7.3% 12.8 32%
Career 86.1 147 2,395 31% 2.89 6.2 19.5% 13.7 38%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
35% 48% 19

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Bateman was the last receiver selected in the first round, joining the Baltimore Ravens, who took two wide receivers in the draft for the third straight season.

Baltimore will likely start this season rotating Bateman with Marquise Brown and Sammy Watkins in two-receiver sets, and then use all three in 11 personnel. Bateman has the chance to lead the team in targets as a rookie if he can gain enough trust from Lamar Jackson. He has the advantage of joining a great quarterback with an immediate opportunity for playing time and targets.

The downside is that the Ravens are a run-first team, and the changes they made at wide receiver this offseason won’t significantly alter their scheme. Baltimore ranked last in the league in passing attempts each of the past two seasons. Bateman could live up to all of his potential and still not see the same number of targets as other elite receivers.

Ultimately, landing in Baltimore raised Bateman’s floor but lowered his ceiling.

8. WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

Overview
School Alabama
Position Wide Receiver
Class Junior
Age 22
Player comp Marquise Brown
Positional rank WR2
Measurables

N/A

Workout Metrics

N/A

Fantasy Outlook

Waddle is a top-eight talent in the 2021 NFL Draft, according to our Big Board, despite his relatively small sample size of targets in college. Waddle was constantly surrounded by NFL-caliber talent at wide receiver, and he missed most of his final college season with an ankle injury.

He should still be considered a top prospect for a variety of reasons, all of which were detailed by PFF's Sam Monson earlier this offseason. Waddle was recently declared both the best deep threat and the freakiest athlete by PFF's Mike Renner.

Waddle is expected to be drafted in the first half of the first round, which has its pros and cons. His talent alone is worth that pick, but he’s likely ending up in an unstable quarterback situation. The Detroit LionsPhiladelphia Eagles and New York Giants are the most likely landing spots. The quarterbacks for all three teams likely need a strong year to remain starters in 2022.

Waddle should be an every-down starter with any of those teams. He has significant experience playing in the slot, but also enough experience on the outside to play on the outside in base situations. His floor should be higher than all of the wide receivers ranked fourth or lower. His target share could easily be higher in his rookie season than it was throughout his college career. Still, it might take Waddle a few years to reach his true potential until his quarterback situation solidifies.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 82.6 28 591 19% 4.38 10.1 60.7% 11.7 25%
2019 83.7 33 560 10% 2.98 12.2 90.1% 5.9 7%
2018 89.7 45 848 14% 3.58 8.0 73.2% 11.7 16%
Career 91.6 106 1,999 13% 3.57 9.8 75.2% 9.9 14%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
16% 34% 22

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The Dolphins trusted Waddle enough to make him the sixth overall pick. Miami was in desperate need of stability at wide receiver after nine different players at the position earned snaps for the team last season. DeVante Parker was the only one with more than 400 offensive snaps.

The Dolphins already added Will Fuller V in free agency, so Waddle might be relegated to snaps in 11 personnel as a rookie. Miami used 11 personnel on a below-average 55.3% of offensive snaps last season. That rate should rise due to their replenished receiver room, but it might not be ideal for Waddle’s rookie season outlook.

Waddle’s long-term outlook is more promising. Fuller signed a one-year contract, so the rookie should be an every-snap player by 2022. A lot of his future production depends on the quarterback position. Ryan Fitzpatrick managed to outshine Tua Tagovailoa last season, and the Dolphins have been linked to other quarterbacks in trade talks. The team could even look to upgrade in the 2022 NFL Draft if the 2021 season doesn’t go according to plan. Most of the other first-round wide receivers either landed in a better quarterback situation or in a situation with less competition for targets.

Waddle is still worth a dynasty rookie first-round pick due to his talent alone.

9. RB Michael Carter, New York Jets

Overview
School North Carolina
Position Running Back
Class Senior
Age 21.9
Player Comp Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Positional Rank RB7
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-foot-8 8th
Weight 201 20th
Arm 29.13 4th
Hand 8.75 17th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.50 62nd
Shuttle 3.98 98th
Vertical Jump 34 40th
Broad Jump 9’11” 49th
Three-Cone N/A N/A
Bench Press 6.81 90th
Fantasy Outlook

Carter has been upstaged by teammate Javonte Williams despite outproducing him in rushing yards over the last two seasons. The perception that Williams is potentially a three-down back and Carter more of a specialist was muddied a bit after the two weighed in at 212 and 201 pounds, respectively.

Carter’s advanced-stat profile is similar to Williams’ with elite numbers for PFF rush grade, forced missed tackles and yards after contact. There’s little chance that Carter will end up a first-round pick like Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but they probably have the most similar profiles. Carter has been a difficult back to bring down despite his smaller frame.

Carter is the RB4 on the PFF big board at 89th overall — 14 spots worse than his expected draft position based on recent mock drafts. A lot of the difference is based on PFF’s lower perception of running backs’ positional value. Most mock drafts, real or fantasy, have Carter as the RB5 or worse.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Carries Yards Yards per attempt Yards after contact per attempt Missed tackles forced per attempt Receptions Target share Dominator rating
2020 91.7 157 1,245 7.9 4.5 0.28 25 9% 21%
2019 84.6 177 1,003 5.7 3.8 0.27 21 6% 14%
2018 70.4 86 609 7.1 3.5 0.28 23 9% 14%
Career 91.3 517 3,416 6.6 3.9 0.28 80 7% 17%
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Carter hit the landing-spot jackpot when the Jets selected him at the top of the fourth round. New York probably won’t field a dynamic offense this season, but with only Tevin Coleman as real competition, Carter should see plenty of action as a rookie.

The rookie running back isn’t heavy at 201 pounds, but he’s built low to the ground and was used just as much as Javonte Williams in college. Carter should be an especially valuable piece in PPR leagues as the natural checkdown option for rookie Zach Wilson.

10. WR Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals

Overview
School Purdue
Position Wide Receiver
Class Junior
Age 20.8
Player comp Tavon Austin
Positional rank WR6
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-foot-7 1st
Weight 180 9th
Arm N/A N/A
Hand N/A N/A
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.29 98th
Shuttle N/A N/A
Vertical jump 42.5 99th
Broad jump N/A N/A
Three-cone 6.68 92nd
Bench press N/A N/A
Fantasy Outlook

Our draft analysts have pegged Steve Smith as the best comp for Moore, but Tavon Austin is the most similar prospect from a usage perspective. Austin can either be framed as a cautionary tale for those drafting Moore or an example of how NFL offenses weren’t ready to find creative ways to use a player like Moore a decade or so ago.

The advanced stats do a great job of framing how unique Moore is as a small and fast receiver who was in the 98th percentile in the percentage of production after the catch and only in the first percentile in how often he was targeted down the field. In those respects, Moore is a similar yet more extreme version of the production profiles for receivers like Austin and Keke Coutee.

Moore is the WR5 on the PFF NFL Draft big board at 21st overall — or 21 spots better than his expected draft position based on recent mock drafts. Traditionalists in the NFL probably don’t see Moore as a worthy investment of a first-round pick, but his unique skill set could attract teams who have imported college schemes, alignment and motion into their systems. Moore also brings injury risk having missed substantial time his last two seasons. The range of outcomes for Moore as extreme, a highly successful college player without a clear role translation to the NFL.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 80.9 35 270 35% 2.25 6.9 83% 2.6 14%
2019 77.6 29 385 21% 2.96 7.2 75% 8.3 21%
2018 88.8 114 1,258 30% 2.64 7.8 92% 5.5 22%
Career 90.6 178 1,913 29% 2.63 7.5 87% 5.4 20%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
30% 37% 19
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Moore joins a Cardinals wide receiver group with DeAndre Hopkins and not much else. Moore might not be the second option in the passing game Week 1, but his competition includes aging veterans A.J. Green and Larry Fitzgerald and relative disappointments Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella. The Cardinals are clearly looking to generate explosive plays, and Moore produced them in volume at Purdue, especially in his freshman season.

Quips about the “horizontal raid” offense run by Kliff Kingbury falls into Moore’s specialty of working around the line of scrimmage and turning short passes and screens into long plays. The advanced stats do a great job of framing how unique Moore is as a small and fast receiver who was in the 98th percentile in the percentage of production after the catch but only in the first percentile in how often he was targeted down the field. If Moore can expand his downfield game in the NFL, it’ll be hard for the Cardinals to take him off the field.

11. WR Terrace Marshall Jr., Carolina Panthers

Overview
School LSU
Position Wide Receiver
Class Junior
Age 21
Player comp Terry McLaurin
Positional rank WR5
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-3 78th
Weight 205 58th
Arm 32.75 74th
Hand 9.50 69th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.38 89th
Shuttle
Vertical jump 39 87th
Broad jump 125 76th
Three-cone
Bench press
Fantasy Outlook

Marshall is one of the most physically gifted receivers in the class. The former LSU standout possesses a rare combination of size and speed for and hasn’t even celebrated his 21st birthday yet. He is one of the ideal candidates for a dynasty rookie wide receiver.

Marshall played mostly on the outside early in his career and improved moving to the slot his final year. He did a great job attacking the middle of the field and saw his PFF grade and target share increase each year.

He’s not as polished as the wide receivers ranked better than him. His 2020 statistics could have looked a bit better had it not been for seven drops. Pretty much any wide receiver from this point on is a high-risk, high-reward player. Marshall has the potential to be an elite fantasy receiver if he can take advantage of his physical gifts.

Marshall should have some help reaching his potential if he finds the right landing spot. He’s expected to be drafted late in the first round. The Chiefs, Packers and Titans are all teams that are picking late in the first round, have excellent quarterback situations and could use someone to take over as their second wide receiver. If Marshall lands with one of those teams, he should have an immediate fantasy impact.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 78.9 48 731 23% 2.91 6.4 72.7% 9.5 25%
2019 71.1 46 671 14% 1.59 3.4 26.2% 15.3 23%
2018 61.2 12 192 6% 1.48 6.2 17.6% 10.9 6%
Career 75.8 106 1,594 14% 1.98 5.1 39.0% 12.2 18%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
22% 46% 19
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Marshall was the last wide receiver picked in the second round, but he’s in a better position for fantasy success than some of those picked ahead of him.

The Carolina Panthers had three wide receivers finish in the top 25 in fantasy points last season, which makes the team an excellent landing spot for a rookie receiver. Curtis Samuel was one of those three receivers, but he left for Washington in free agency. The Panthers didn’t have a replacement for Samuel on the roster until they drafted Marshall.

It’s unlikely all three can be top-25 players again with running back Christian McCaffrey returning from injury. The Panthers should run more than last season as a result, and it’ll likely lead to more targets to the running back position, too. It’s questionable to say Carolina upgraded at quarterback by trading for Sam Darnold. If Darnold is a step in the wrong direction, it might lead to the Panthers relying more on McCaffrey and less on the wide receivers.

Marshall should see more playing time and targets than second-round rookies. Still, there are plenty of things that could go right or wrong with the quarterback situation and Marshall itself. This landing spot gives Marshall a higher ceiling and floor than most rookie wide receivers.

12. WR Elijah Moore, New York Jets

Overview
School Mississippi
Position Wide Receiver
Class Junior
Age 21
Player comp Tyler Lockett
Positional rank WR7
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-foot-9 9th
Weight 178 7th
Arm 30.13 10th
Hand 9.38 58th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.35 93th
Shuttle 4.0 96th
Vertical jump 36 56th
Broad jump 10’0” 40th
Three-cone 6.66 93rd
Bench press 17 77th
Fantasy Outlook

Moore is the prototype slot receiver, but with outstanding workout metrics and top-notch production numbers. At 5-foot-9 and only 178 pounds, he doesn’t profile as a receiver who can transition to a more valuable outside role in the NFL, but he did shift down his slot usage in his final season to 80% of snaps from nearly all snaps the prior two years. Moore was the focal point of the Mississippi offense while playing out of the slot, accounting for nearly 40% of team targets and air yards in 2020.

Moore is a somewhat difficult player to compare to historical prospects. When you filter prospects for similar height, weight and speed to Moore, the list primarily comprises deep threats, especially restricting draft position to the first three rounds.

Moore is the WR5 on the PFF big board at 20 overall — 19 spots better than his expected draft position based on recent mock drafts. There’s a strong possibility that Moore’s profile is now more coveted in the NFL than in past seasons with the proliferation of three-wide-receiver sets and production coming out of the slot. If Moore can creep into the first round of the NFL draft, he becomes a top fantasy rookie pick, especially in PPR formats.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 91.2 86 1,193 39% 3.85 5.9 80% 10.9 40%
2019 76.3 67 850 34% 2.46 5.0 98% 11.0 39%
2018 71.0 37 407 13% 1.74 5.5 100% 8.8 11%
Career 89.6 190 2,450 27% 2.75 5.5 92% 10.5 28%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
29% 46% 19.5
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Moore was the sixth wide receiver drafted, going near the top of the second round to the New York Jets. The Jets already have Jamison Crowder occupying the slot, Moore’s most likely alignment in the NFL. The rookie could play outside more frequently this season if the Jets don’t trade Crowder, or the team could do so to save cap space and free up slot snaps for Moore.

At 5-foot-9 and only 178 pounds, Moore doesn’t profile as a receiver who can transition to a more valuable outside role in the NFL, but he did reduce his slot usage in his final college season to 80% of snaps from nearly all snaps the prior two years.

The Jets’ receiving group is full of potential but features few solid options. Moore could emerge sooner rather than later as a top target for fellow rookie Zach Wilson.

13. QB Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers

Overview
School North Dakota State
Position Quarterback
Class Sophomore
Age 20
Player comp Taysom Hill with arm talent
Positional rank QB4
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-4 67th
Weight 224 60th
Arm 31.50 30th
Hand 9.13 30th
Workout Metrics

N/A

 Fantasy Outlook

Trey Lance is arguably the most exciting quarterback prospect in this entire draft class from a fantasy football perspective. He offers the tantalizing dual-threat combination of monster arm with true game-breaking speed and athleticism. Lance checks the two most important boxes that fantasy managers covet at the quarterback position:

  • Desire to attack downfield with an 11.5-yard average depth of target over his career
  • Explosive and willing runner that posted a whopping 1,150 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns in a single season

Lance is a complete game-breaker when running with the football. Back in 2019, he tallied a ridiculous 39 runs of 10-plus yards, 14 of which went for over 15 yards. He posted a ridiculous 40 missed tackles while averaging 4.7 yards after contact per attempt. Those are numbers that would make running backs jealous.

In an utterly loaded quarterback class, Lance may possess more pure physical talent than all of them. He was absolutely stellar as a passer in 2019 with an 88.7 passing grade, 28 touchdowns and a perfect zero interceptions. Lance demonstrated remarkable decision-making on tape and the ability to keep the football out of harm’s way is a skill that translates well at the NFL level.

Accuracy issues are the biggest con in Lance’s game with his ball-placement numbers ranking lowest among all the top quarterback prospects in this draft class. However, accuracy is a skill that can be improved at the NFL level – look no further than Josh Allen as a recent example.

Lance has demonstrated the ability to be a gunslinger that bombs the ball downfield. On throws beyond 20-plus yards downfield in 2019, Lance tallied 12 touchdowns with a stellar 125.2 passer rating (10th) that rated just behind Joe Burrow at 130.9 and ahead of Jalen Hurts at 116.5.

The blend of a downfield cannon with dynamic athleticism creates limitless fantasy football upside with a ceiling that could rival the epic 2019 MVP season of Lamar Jackson. Trey Lance has a clear path to becoming the number one fantasy football quarterback in this draft class.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade TDs INTs Yards Yards per attempt Big-time throw rate Passer rating (clean pocket) aDOT Rushing attempts Rushing yards
2020 78.0 2 1 149 5.0 3.3% 72.3 12.2 13 161
2019 90.7 28 0 2,788 9.7 5.5% 130.6 11.5 134 1,150
2018 70.0 0 0 12 12.0 N/A N/A N/A 7 82
Career 90.8 30 1 2,949 9.2 5.4% 125.4 11.5 154 1,393
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Trey Lance is an under-the-radar choice to be the top rookie quarterback in fantasy football this season. The former North Dakota State quarterback possesses the type of dual-threat ability that wins fantasy football championships. Lance is an aggressive downfield passer, generating a career 11.5-yard average depth of target, and he posted a 1,150-14 rushing line in 2019.

The 49ers boast arguably the league’s best trio of after-the-catch weapons in George KittleDeebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, with the creative play-calling of Kyle Shanahan directing the offense. It is difficult to imagine a better situation for a rookie quarterback.

Do not discount the possibility that Lance emerges as the 49ers’ starting quarterback by Week 1. Even if Jimmy Garoppolo opens the season as the starter, the 49ers have Super Bowl aspirations and will keep him on a short leash. Additionally, San Francisco was rumored to be shopping him during the 2021 NFL Draft. There is a decent chance the embattled signal-caller finds a new home prior to the start of the season.

14. RB Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers

Overview
School Ohio State
Position Running Back
Class Graduate
Age 22.2
Player comp Jonathan Williams
Positional rank RB6
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot 85th
Weight 215 56th
Arm 33.4 99th
Hand 9.4 66th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.57 38th
Shuttle 4.28 50th
Vertical jump 37 77th
Broad jump 10’5” 87th
Three-cone 6.83 87th
Bench press N/A N/A
Fantasy Outlook

Trey Sermon has the look of this year’s mid-to-late round back that earns himself a fantasy-viable role sooner rather than later. This is largely thanks to his combination of high-end tackle-breaking skills (4.04 yards after contact per attempt) and proven ability to adequately function across all three downs.

His relatively modest 48-486-3 receiving line with the Sooners and Buckeyes doesn’t jump off the page, but Sermon does deserve credit for dropping just a single pass over the final three years of his career. Neither of his teams made a habit of designing passing plays to go his way, although getting Sermon more future opportunities in the open field sure seems like a good idea even if it’s unlikely we see any NFL team go out of their way to force-feed him targets.

Since 2010, Roy Helu, Zac Stacy, Jordan Howard, Alfred Morris, Phillip Lindsay and James Robinson are the only RBs not drafted inside of the first three rounds that finished their rookie season as a top-24 PPR producer. Opportunity far exceeds talent in the NFL, and Sermon has managed to earn serious run at the top of two of college football’s premier programs. Don’t be afraid to buy into juicy offseason reviews from Sermon’s future employer if he continues to make good things happen with the ball in his hands.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Carries Yards Yards per attempt Yards after contact per attempt Missed tackles forced per attempt Receptions Target share Dominator rating
2020 86.1 116 870 7.5 4.04 0.3 12 7.8% 17%
2019 77 54 385 7.1 3.26 0.3 8 8.3% 9%
2018 90.6 162 947 5.8 3.42 0.35 12 6% 15%
2017 82.8 120 745 6.2 4.15 0.32 16 7.8% 10%
Career 93.1 452 2,947 6.5 3.75 0.32 48 7.4% 12.3%
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

It was plausible to be high on Raheem Mostert before Kyle Shanahan and company spent a third-round pick to acquire Setmon’s services. I’d expect Mostert to start out of the gate, but at least a two-back committee looms. Whether or not Jeff WilsonWayne Gallman, sixth-round pick Eli Mitchell and maybe even hybrid WR/RB Jalen Hurd will also be involved in the backfield rotation remains to be seen; just realize it’s been a while since we’ve seen Shanahan feature a true workhorse running back.

Arguably the larger issue is the reality that Trey Lance’s dual-threat tendencies will further lower the overall touches available to this backfield; statue quarterbacks tend to offer more fantasy-friendly opportunities for running backs considering they typically check down instead of scrambling and don’t make a habit of taking off on their own near the goal line.

I’m more inclined to treat Mostert and Sermon as zero-RB targets than players worthy of an early-round pick, although Sermon is certainly deserving of top-four treatment among rookie running backs in re-draft and dynasty formats alike.

15. QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Overview
School Clemson
Position Quarterback
Class Junior
Age 21.5
Player comp Andrew Luck
Positional rank QB1
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-6 93rd
Weight 213 23rd
Arm 31.5 31st
Hand 10.0 84th
Workout Metrics

N/A

Fantasy Outlook

Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence is one of the most highly regarded quarterbacks to enter the NFL in recent memory. He was one of the nation’s top recruits coming out of high school, and his future as a No. 1 overall pick for the Jacksonville Jaguars is a foregone conclusion.

He became the first freshman quarterback to earn a PFF grade above 90.0 and continued that success in his next two seasons.

Lawrence earned a PFF grade of 90.7 last year, which ranked 10th-best among QBs since the start of the 2019 season. He also increased his accuracy from his first season going from a sub-65% completion rate in 2018 to a 68% completion rate this past season.

And his completion rate wasn’t inflated through a series of RB dump-offs. He showed effectiveness throwing deep, earning PFF’s fifth-highest grade on 20-plus yards throws (95.2) while finishing eighth in adjusted completion percentage (48.4%).

The arm strength and improved accuracy suggest that he'll be able to make all the throws. Combine that with upside as a runner, and we have a deadly fantasy asset at our disposal.

In 2019, Lawrence was PFF’s fourth-highest-graded rusher (84.6) at the quarterback position.

He rushed for 682 yards, 7.8 yards per attempt (second) and scored nine rushing touchdowns. In his final three games to wrap up the 2020 season, he attempted 27 rushes for 133 yards. Having a quarterback that can add value with his legs is the new norm in fantasy football, and Lawrence fits the mold.

He is as NFL-ready as a rookie quarterback can be and is well-deserving of the first pick in dynasty superflex formats. Pairing him with new Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer could further unlock the rookie's upside as a rusher based on his coach's track record of leveraging QBs as rushing threats.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade TDs INTs Yards Yards per attempt Big-time throw rate Passer rating (clean pocket) aDOT Rushing attempts Rushing yards
2020 91.2 24 5 3,153 9.3 7.1% 122.4 9.0 54 316
2019 91.1 36 8 3,664 8.9 6.9% 117.5 10.1 88 682
2018 90.7 30 4 3,274 8.2 6.8% 113.5 9.4 47 266
Career 93.3 90 17 10,091 8.8 6.9% 117.4 9.5 189 1,264
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

No surprise here: Trevor Lawrence and his golden locks are headed to #Duval. The Clemson product is as NFL-ready as a rookie quarterback can be — he's well deserving of the first pick in dynasty superflex fantasy formats.

Jags head coach Urban Meyer has a track record of leveraging quarterbacks as rushing threats, and Darrell Bevell helped unlock Matthew Stafford’s deep ball over the past two seasons. With Lawrence’s deep-ball prowess (PFF’s fifth-highest-graded quarterback on throws of 20 or more yards) and “sneaky” rushing upside (PFF’s fourth-highest-graded rusher in 2019), he has stud fantasy quarterback written all over him.

The only concerns about Lawrence involve how Meyer will shape this offense — some of his offseason moves have definitely raised some eyebrows. He was reportedly heartbroken that versatile wide receiver Kadarius Toney wasn’t available to him despite the team already having Laviska Shenault Jr. After missing on Toney, the team elected to draft a running back in the first round, which we all know isn’t an optimal team-building strategy.

And the cherry on top is the most recent signing of quarterback-turned-tight-end Tim Tebow. With a pass-catching tight end being a legitimate need for the roster, adding Tebow is definitely a head-scratcher.

But roster moves aside, Lawrence will be the locked-in starter from Day 1 and should have plenty of opportunities to throw. The Jaguars’ defense graded as PFF’s 31st-ranked coverage unit in 2020, almost ensuring Lawrence will frequently find himself in shootout environments.

16. QB Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

Overview
School Ohio State
Position Quarterback
Class Junior
Age 22.1
Player comp Smaller Cam Newton
Positional rank QB2
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-3 49th
Weight 227 71st
Arm 32.5 66th
Hand 9.13 17th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.44 99th
Shuttle N/A N/A
Vertical jump N/A N/A
Broad jump N/A N/A
Three-cone N/A N/A
Bench press N/A N/A
Fantasy Outlook

This offseason’s most-overthought prospect, Justin Fields has been the victim of anonymous sources and some laughably bad analysis. The idea that Fields can’t operate past his initial read has been the worst spread thought, as his 90.6 PFF grade on throws past the first read since 2019 rank first among all qualified QBs (minimum 60 attempts).

Setting aside whatever you’ve heard about Fields: He just blazed a 4.44-second 40-yard dash and possesses anyone’s idea of high-end arm strength. He finished 2020 as college football’s third-most accurate passer in adjusted completion rate, posting sky-high PFF grades on intermediate (94.5) and deep (96.5) passes alike. Overall, Fields falls behind only Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson on our NFL Draft Big Board.

Sometimes a great pro day causes overreactions, but we already had plenty of live-game evidence that Fields is both fast and possesses plenty of arm talent. The latter variable might be more important for his year one fantasy success considering six of seven rookies to finish as top-12 fantasy QBs in their debut season averaged at least 25 rushing yards per game. Fields (39.4) more than qualifies. Now we hope for a proper landing spot to get him on the field as soon as possible. The right offense could lead to Fields operating as this group’s fantasy QB1 as early as Week 1.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade TDs INTs Yards Yards per attempt Big-time throw rate Passer rating (clean pocket) aDOT Rushing attempts Rushing yards
2020 93.6 22 6 2,098 9.3 7.8% 138.3 10.4 30 517
2019 91.5 41 3 3,273 9.2 8.7% 137.9 12.6 72 688
Career 94.2 67 9 5,711 9.2 8.4% 137.8 11.6 224 1,544
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The idea that the Bears will sit Fields behind Andy Dalton for any sort of extended stretch is at best comical and at worst coaching malpractice. In reality, quarterbacks almost always aren’t drafted in the first round to sit on the bench; expect Fields to be under center by October at the latest.

The Bears don’t exactly boast a top-10 offense in total skill-position weaponry, but Fields at least has bona fide stud Allen Robinson II to throw the rock to. Add in Fields’ innate fantasy-friendly dual-threat ability along with capable targets in Darnell MooneyCole KmetAnthony Miller (for now) as well as Dazz Newsome, and you have an upside QB2 at worst in 2021.

Again: Rushing quarterbacks tend to be a cheat code in fantasy football. We have plenty of evidence that Fields is not only fast (4.44-second 40-yard dash), but also that he’s more than capable of making defenders look nothing short of silly in space. For as rough as the Matt Nagy experience has been over the past two seasons, he did enable Mitch Trubisky to a fantasy QB7 start in Weeks 1-11 in 2018 before he suffered a shoulder bruise. Fields’ ceiling is even higher. Here's to hoping he’s on the field before too long because he’s worthy of the QB2 spot in dynasty and should be in everyone’s top 20 in redraft.

17. WR Dyami Brown, Washington Football Team

Overview
School North Carolina
Position Wide Receiver
Class Junior
Age 21
Player comp Sterling Shepard
Positional rank WR9
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-1 46th
Weight 189 23rd
Arm 32.75 73rd
Hand 9.63 75th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.46 63rd
Shuttle 4.35 24th
Vertical jump 38 79th
Broad jump 128 89th
Three-cone 6.87 65th
Bench press 18 82nd
Fantasy Outlook

Dyami Brown broke out in 2019 hauling in 1,034 yards at an impressive rate of 20.3 yards per catch, and he backed that up again in 2020 with another 1,000-yard season. His big-play ability is undeniable, and he demonstrated the physicality and suddenness of a receiver who can get off the line of scrimmage and run a diabolical slant route. That is a skill that can win immediately in the NFL.

Brown’s college numbers are buoyed by the fact that he consistently saw high-value targets, as evidenced by that 18.4-yard average depth of target last season. Brown is ready to be deployed as a deep threat in his rookie season, which bodes extremely well for instant fantasy football success. Additionally, Brown possesses a clean release package that can win on the line of scrimmage.

The biggest con for Brown as he makes the transition to the NFL is the fact that his entire route tree in college was vertical passing. At a minimum, Brown will be a potent deep threat at the NFL level. If he can refine and add to his route running skills, Brown will be able to develop into an impact wide receiver that can win at all levels of the field.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 82.2 55 1,099 25.2% 3.11 4.9 1.1% 18.4 46.7%
2019 69.9 51 1,034 19.5% 2.37 5.8 2.4% 17.6 32.7%
2018 58.7 17 173 8.5% 0.92 4.9 3.2% 12.2 12.2%
Career 76.7 123 2,306 17.5% 2.36 5.3 2.0% 17.1 30.8%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
25%  31% 20
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Dyami Brown joins Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel to create a formidable receiving corps in Washington. The former North Carolina receiver should fill the deep-threat role that yields true boom-or-bust production. He is perfectly suited for this responsibility — Brown has tallied 10 catches of 50-plus yards (first) and 26 catches on throws 20-plus yards downfield since 2019.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is a true gunslinger, unafraid to sling it deep, but he will not have enough volume to consistently support reliable production for three pass-catchers. Logan Thomas will also command his fair share of targets.

The 6-foot-1, 189-pound receiver possesses fantasy upside in the range of volatile deep threats like Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman.

18. WR Kadarius Toney, New York Giants

Overview
School Florida
Position Wide Receiver
Class Senior
Age 22
Player comp Parris Campbell
Positional rank WR9
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot 31st
Weight 193 31st
Arm 31.25 31st
Hand 9.25 48th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.41 81st
Shuttle 4.25 49th
Vertical jump 40 90th
Broad jump 136 99th
Three-cone 6.88 64th
Bench press 9 11th
Fantasy Outlook

Toney is the best receiver after the catch in the 2021 draft, which should put him as a late first-round or second-round pick. He was a slot receiver who played well in limited opportunities early in his college career and then became a larger part of the offense in his senior year where he maintained his success on a larger sample.

He seems destined to be a slot receiver that will have plays drawn to get him the ball. This isn’t always great for fantasy, as most slot receivers don’t see enough targets to make them worth starting.

Toney got away with being the most impressive athlete on the field at Florida, which he probably won’t get away with in the NFL. He can make it hard for defensive backs to guess what he’s doing, but that also makes it hard for his quarterback too.

If Toney can become a more polished route runner, he can be one of the best players in the class. He’s worth a late second-round pick in dynasty leagues in hopes he can reach that potential.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 84.0 70 977 20% 2.62 6.8 82.3% 7.7 15%
2019 80.0 10 194 5% 3.73 19.6 80.6% 2.1 2%
2018 83.5 25 260 10% 2.02 8.2 42.4% 6.9 8%
Career 90.0 105 1,431 12% 2.58 8.3 71.1% 7.0 9%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
14% 23% 21.5
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Toney was a surprise first-round pick by the New York Giants. His dynasty value improved in large part because the team used the 20th overall pick on him. Any wide receiver picked in the first round of an NFL draft is worth at least a second-round pick in dynasty rookie drafts.

Toney seems like a replacement for Golden Tate. Tate broke the most tackles among wide receivers over the past five seasons, with 75. Toney was also a tackle-avoiding machine in college. The Giants released Tate this offseason, so Toney can easily take on that role.

New York also added Kenny Golladay, so the receiving room will be more crowded than it has been in recent seasons. We could see a rotation of snaps for Toney and others, with four potential starting wide receivers on the roster.

The Florida product could become a PPR machine for the Giants, but only if he can prove himself a better player than most of the wide receivers for New York as well as the tight ends.

19. WR Nico Collins, Houston Texans

Overview
School Michigan
Position Wide Receiver
Class Senior
Age 22.0
Player comp Miles Boykin
Positional rank WR15
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-4 93rd
Weight 215 82nd
Arm 34.13 97th
Hand 9.38 58th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.42 78th
Shuttle 4.29 37th
Vertical jump 38 74th
Broad jump 10’5” 76th
Three-cone 6.78 79th
Bench press 14 49th
Fantasy Outlook

Collins fits into the traditional WR1 prototype at 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds. His pro-day speed was strong, as was his three-cone time and his jumps. The Michigan pass-catcher doesn’t hit the highest marks, but the breadth of his athleticism was particularly impressive.

Production is the issue with Collins. We don’t know how he would have performed in 2020 after opting out of his true senior season, but his numbers stalled out in 2019, improving his receiving totals by fewer than 100 yards and his per-route efficiency to 2.31 yards per route run from 2.16 as a sophomore.

Collins played on the outside exclusively in college, a desirable differentiator with so many smaller slot receivers entering the NFL this year. He did provide some value as a deep threat at times but was better at producing touchdowns than he was at piling up the yardage.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2019 70.9 37 729 17% 2.31 6.3 1 14.8 24%
2018 73.0 38 633 16% 2.16 3.6 5 15.9 26%
Career 73.4 78 1,389 15% 2.14 4.9 4 14.9 23%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
26% 28% 19.5
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Collins was a winner of the 2021 NFL Draft after the receiver-poor Texans traded up to draft him in the third round. He faces little competition for targets outside of Brandin Cooks, and he has the physical profile for success in the NFL at 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds. His Pro Day speed was strong, and his three-cone time and broad and vertical jumps were solid. Collins doesn’t hit the highest marks, but the breadth of his athleticism was particularly impressive.

Production is the issue with the Michigan product. We don’t know how he would have performed in 2020 after he opted out of his true senior season, but his numbers stalled out in 2019, improving his receiving totals by fewer than 100 yards and his per-route efficiency to 2.31 yards from 2.16 as a sophomore.

20. QB Zach Wilson, New York Jets

Overview
School BYU
Position Quarterback
Class Junior
Age 22
Player comp Baker Mayfield
Positional rank QB3
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-2 32nd
Weight 214 25th
Arm 30.63 12th
Hand 9.50 47th
Workout Metrics

N/A

Fantasy Outlook

A quarterback seems to come out of nowhere every college football season to rise up NFL draft boards. Last year, we saw Joe Burrow take a massive leap at LSU. It was Zach Wilson‘s turn this year.

Wilson's ascent to a No. 2 overall draft pick didn’t happen quite like Burrow's. Wilson flashed talent early in his college career. Like Trevor Lawrence, he produced as a true freshman, earning an 80.5 PFF grade (33rd) while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt (18th).

After an injury-riddled sophomore season prevented any further breakout, Wilson took college football by storm in his junior season. Look up any passing statistic or grade from the 2020 college season, and you'll find Wilson somewhere near the top. He ranked No. 1 in PFF passing grade (95.5, highest in the PFF era), second in passer rating (136.3), third in yards per attempt (11.1), third in touchdowns (32) and third in completion percentage (72.7%).

Only 13.6% of Wilson’s throws beyond the line of scrimmage were deemed uncatchable this past season, the lowest rate in the FBS. His passing grade on tight-window passes also led all quarterbacks, and it wasn’t particularly close (92.7). The next closest quarterback was Spencer Rattler (74.3).

Proficiency throwing into tight windows is telling for the electric quarterback because the NFL requires passes to be thrown constantly into narrow spaces. The BYU gunslinger also ranked first in PFF passing grade on 20-plus-yard throws and compiled the fourth-most yards on those deep pass attempts. No quarterback threw an accurate ball at a higher rate on 20-plus-yard passes in 2020 (73%).

Wilson’s arm talent checks off all the boxes for NFL teams, but his underrated rushing threat will be a deciding factor for fantasy gamers. His 34.9 rushing yards per game are nearly identical to Lawrence's (34.3).

Player Stats
Season Overall grade TDs INTs Yards Yards per attempt Big-time throw rate Passer rating (clean pocket) aDOT Rushing attempts Rushing yards
2020 95.4 32 3 3,694 11.0 8.6% 144.2 10.9 66 353
2019 76.2 11 9 2,372 7.4 5.1% 95.2 10.5 49 303
2018 80.5 12 3 1,578 8.6 6.7% 113.8 9.6 55 346
Career 92.6 55 15 7,644 9.1 6.9% 119.4 10.4 170 1,002
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The New York Jets couldn’t be a better fit for Zach Wilson. He's best suited for an offense that leverages an outside-zone scheme — the exact offense we can project Gang Green to run under new Jets offensive coordinator Mike LeFleur. The major concern is Wilson's ability to handle pressure.

The BYU QB saw pressure at the fourth-lowest rate (21.6%) in 2020. The Jets ranked 31st in PFF pass-blocking last season. Luckily, the Jets recognized the pass-protection issue and traded up to acquire interior offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker to protect their new franchise QB.

With more offensive weapons and a better supporting cast than Sam Darnold had, Wilson has the ceiling to be a legitimate fantasy QB in New York. It just might require some time. His jump from relatively easy college competition to the NFL level is significant.

21. RB Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles

Overview
School Memphis
Position Running Back
Class Redshirt Sophomore
Age 22
Player Comp Theo Riddick
Positional Rank RB4
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-foot-11 55th
Weight 195 9th
Arm N/A N/A
Hand N/A N/A
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.42 86th
Shuttle N/A N/A
Vertical Jump 35 53rd
Broad Jump 121 65th
Three-Cone N/A N/A
Bench Press 21 66th
Fantasy Outlook

Kenneth Gainwell is a hybrid running back with the receiving chops of a dynamic slot receiver. He starred back in 2019 at Memphis with an 89.0 PFF grade while tallying 1,466 rushing yards and 610 receiving yards. He shared the Memphis backfield with 2020 breakout superstar Antonio Gibson and dramatically out-produced the Washington Football Team stud in posting 2,076 total yards compared to 1,104 total yards for Gibson.

Though Gainwell is a running back by position definition, his best skill is exceptional receiving ability with elite agility that is a nightmare for linebackers in coverage. His best receiving game was a 203-yard and two-touchdown thrashing of the Tulane Green Wave. Gainwell also dropped just three passes on 60 career catchable targets.

The major question for Gainwell is how his rushing ability can translate to the NFL. He freelanced as a runner too often and failed to demonstrate the reads and vision that you want from your starting running back. While Gainwell possesses elite agility, his top-end speed is slower than you would expect for an undersized running back of his caliber. Pass-blocking is another major concern – can he handle linebackers and edge defenders with that small frame?

Gainwell will be ready to assume a primary receiving role out of the backfield the moment he steps onto an NFL field. That will give him real fantasy value in his rookie season with potential upside for more if he can carve out a rushing role, as well.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Carries Yards Yards per attempt Yards after contact per attempt Missed tackles forced per attempt Receptions Target share Dominator rating
2020 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2019 89.0 231 1,459 6.3 3.45 0.25 51 13.4% 27%
2018 84.2 4 91 22.8 20.00 0.25 6 7.7% N/A
Career 90.4 235 1,550 6.7 3.74 0.25 57 12.4% 27%
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Kenneth Gainwell surprisingly dropped all the way to the fifth round before being scooped up by the Philadelphia Eagles. The former Memphis star joins a crowded backfield with Miles SandersBoston ScottKerryon Johnson and Jordan Howard. However, Gainwell is undoubtedly the most talented pass catcher of the bunch and possesses a clear path to Philadelphia’s primary receiving role out of the backfield.

The usage that Nyheim Hines saw with the Colts last season would be the optimal outcome for Gainwell in 2021. Hines ranked as the PPR overall No. 15 running back and tallied double-digit fantasy points in nine games last season under the tutelage of new Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni.

22. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions

Overview
School USC
Position Wide Receiver
Class Junior
Age 21
Player comp Devin Duvernay
Positional rank WR12
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-11 29th
Weight 197 40th
Arm 30.38 13th
Hand 9.13 35th
Workout Metrics
Drill Percentile
40-yard dash 4.51 42nd
Shuttle 4.27 41st
Vertical jump 39 83rd
Broad jump 127 85th
Three-cone 6.81 75th
Bench press 20 90th
Fantasy Outlook

St. Brown has the pro-day measurables of a great NFL receiver, although his college production didn’t always match his athletic potential.

His jumps, three-cone and bench press were all very impressive, especially for a smaller receiver. He’s also only 21 years old, ideal for dynasty leagues. He was used extensively in the Minnesota offense and put up solid numbers during all three of his seasons at USC.

St. Brown graded better on the outside than he did in the slot in 2019, albeit on a limited sample. This led to St. Brown playing more on the outside in 2020, but things didn't go quite as well. Most of his production came on shorter passes, and he wasn’t nearly as consistent on intermediate or deeper routes. St. Brown was considered a potential first-round pick before the 2020 season, but his disappointing final season squashed those hopes.

The Minnesota pass-catcher is a projected third-round pick. His lack of elite speed will make it difficult for him to ever be an “elite” wide receiver, but that shouldn’t stop him from having a productive career. He should contribute to a team right away and put together a long career, given his age.

His lower ceiling means he should probably get picked later in fantasy drafts than the other later-round wide receivers in this draft class.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 71.7 41 478 22% 1.85 4.0 28.1% 10.9 30%
2019 73.9 77 1,042 20% 1.94 5.4 88.7% 9.2 22%
2018 75.0 60 750 21% 2.65 3.8 56.3% 12.0 24%
Career 78.8 178 2,270 21% 2.11 4.5 65.4% 10.5 25%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
24% 33% 19
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

St. Brown landed with the team that needed a wide receiver the most. The Detroit Lions lost every WR who caught a pass last year except 2000 fifth-round pick Quintez Cephus. The team added a number of players in free agency but only to one-year contracts for $4 million or less.

St. Brown is in a unique position for a fourth-round wide receiver to see significant playing time due to that lack of depth. He could find himself playing the slot role for Detroit, as the current roster is mostly players who have experience playing out wide.

His main competition for playing time in the slot will come from Geronimo Allison, who spent his first four seasons with the Packers before signing with Detroit before the 2020 season. Allison opted out of the season, so he has yet to see any playing time with Detroit. St. Brown might not see enough playing time as a rookie if Detroit rotates both players, but he should be given every opportunity to win a full-time job in the offense.

23. RB Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers

Overview
School Oklahoma State
Position Running Back
Class Redshirt Junior
Age 21
Player Comp Jeremy Langford
Positional Rank RB9
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot  80th
Weight 210 41st
Arm 32.0 87th
Hand 9.0 36th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.48 70th
Shuttle 4.26 55th
Vertical Jump 36.0 68th
Broad Jump 120 58th
Three-Cone 7.24 19th
Bench Press 20  58th
Fantasy Outlook

Chuba Hubbard burst into superstardom after a ridiculous 2019 season, where he racked up 2,094 rushing yards and 21 rushing touchdowns on a ridiculous 328 carries. Hubbard is a decisive runner with terrific jump-cut ability and the ability to bounce on a dime. The fact that he dominated the competition with such a heavy workload bodes well for his usage prospects in the NFL. Hubbard is an incredibly tough runner at 210 pounds, but he is a tier below the top of the running back class in terms of what he can do physically.

The critical question for Hubbard is which running back will his NFL team be getting – the 2020 or 2019 version? Hubbard’s 2020 struggles can be explained by a myriad of injury problems, and it is possible that he recaptures his 2019 form where he ranked second in the nation in rushing. His 88.1 PFF grade in 2019 stacks up against some of last year’s rookie studs and the elite backs in this class – including Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne and Javonte Williams.

Landing spot will be critical if Hubbard is to carve out a role in the NFL. He could become an early-down chain mover if a team is willing to give carries to a running back selected in the later rounds of the NFL Draft. Chris Carson was a sixth-round pick out of Oklahoma State and has made a nice career for himself – perhaps Hubbard follows in Carson’s footsteps.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Carries Yards Yards per attempt Yards after contact per attempt Missed tackles forced per attempt Receptions Target share Dominator rating
2020 71.9 133 627 4.7 2.50 0.17 8 5.4% 30%
2019 88.1 328 2,094 6.4 3.96 0.23 23 9.2% 40%
2018 84.1 124 740 6.0 3.87 0.22 22 7.5% 14%
Career 90.7 583 3,471 6.0 3.61 0.22 53 7.6% 26.5%
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The Carolina Panthers are a sneaky exciting landing spot for fantasy purposes. The former Oklahoma State star instantly becomes one of the top handcuff running backs in all of fantasy football. Mike Davis parlayed the Christian McCaffrey backup role into the No. 12 PPR fantasy finish among all running backs last season.

Of course, Hubbard is not going to steal any usage from McCaffrey. The 6-foot and 210-pound playmaker simply finds himself in arguably the most fantasy-friendly offense for running backs with a premier offensive play-caller in Joe Brady. Hubbard demonstrated bell-cow potential in his breakout 2019 season with 2,090 rushing yards (second), 1,300 yards after contact (first) and 21 rushing touchdowns (third).

If McCaffrey misses any time in 2021, expect Hubbard to step in with borderline RB1 production.

24. WR Josh Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers

Overview
School Tennessee
Position Wide Receiver
Class Senior
Age 21.5
Player comp Chris Moore
Positional rank WR20
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-1 55th
Weight 210 70th
Arm 33.0 82nd
Hand 9.38 58th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.51 42nd
Shuttle 4.25 49th
Vertical jump 34 30th
Broad jump 10’4” 70th
Three-cone 6.98 43rd
Bench press N/A N/A
Fantasy Outlook

Palmer profiles as a bigger-bodied downfield threat. He weighed in at 210 pounds at his pro day and ran a 4.51-second 40-yard dash.

The Tennessee wideout wasn’t efficient in his production on a per-route basis but was near the top end according to yards per reception and average depth of target. When Palmer was successful, he was able to use his bigger frame to shield off defenders and make plays over the top.

Palmer didn’t enjoy the benefits of good quarterback play at Tennessee, but he also didn’t have dominant shares of the total production, as we saw in the tables above. Palmer wasn’t a separator in college, hitting roughly the 95th percentile in terms of the percentage of catches that were contested.

The biggest red flag for Palmer is the absence of strong progression over his collegiate career, finishing his senior season with a slight increase in target share but mediocre efficiency.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 70.7 32 475 21% 1.77 1.9 24 17.1 37%
2019 65.8 34 457 16% 1.32 2.7 15 15.3 22%
2018 65.0 23 484 14% 2.12 3.9 20 20.2 38%
Career 64.8 98 1,514 14% 1.42 2.6 17 17.3 25%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
14% 26% 21
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Palmer was a favorite of our draft analysts at PFF and lands in a good spot with Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Keenan Allen is a target hog, but Mike Williams is entering what could be his final season, potentially freeing up a premier role for Palmer in his second season.

Palmer didn’t have good quarterback play at Tennessee, but he also didn’t have dominant shares of the total production, as we saw in the tables above. Similarly to Williams, Palmer wasn’t a separator in college, hitting roughly the 95th percentile in terms of the percentage of catches that were contested.

25 WR Amari Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Overview
School Clemson
Position Wide Receiver
Class Senior
Age 21
Player comp Deebo Samuel
Positional rank WR22
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-foot-10 10th
Weight 212 75th
Arm N/A N/A
Hand N/A N/A
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.51 42nd
Shuttle 4.36 22nd
Vertical jump 33 18th
Broad jump 121 46th
Three-cone 7.12 19th
Bench press 24 99th
Fantasy Outlook

Rodgers broke out in his senior season, recording career highs in overall grade and yards per route run while turning in his first 1,000-yard season.

The Clemson slot receiver struggled to get separation at the college level, something that will likely limit his NFL production. However, he has proved that he can make an impact if the ball is put into his hands right away, and he's shown flashes of potential as a deep threat.

Rodgers also comes with the added bonus of being an effective option on rushing plays, which is what makes him an intriguing dynasty prospect. He was tagged as the wide receiver most likely to be converted to a running back in the PFF 2021 NFL Draft Guide, so if he can see snaps from the slot as well as a few carries per game, he should generate some value in fantasy leagues.

A projected fourth-round pick, Rodgers should contribute to a team right away with his combination of size and speed, but that probably won’t be enough for him to be of value in 2021. However, he’s only 21 years old, which gives him some time to develop into a more physical receiver who can separate and improve in contested scenarios. He’s worth a later-round flier in dynasty in case he can take some time at running back or can develop further.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 79.1 77 1,020 20% 2.61 8.0 82.6% 7.6 19%
2019 62.3 30 425 9% 1.60 11.2 89.9% 6.3 6%
2018 70.1 55 575 14% 1.89 7.4 17.6% 6.1 10%
Career 75.8 162 2,020 13% 2.10 8.3 62.3% 6.8 10%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
23% 14% 21
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The Green Bay Packers added Rodgers to be their new slot receiver. Green Bay hasn’t had a clear slot receiver after letting Randall Cobb go in free agency. The team used all three of its starting wide receivers in the slot last season and all saw between 240-260 snaps inside over the year.

Ideally, Rodgers will see the second-most targets from the best quarterback in the league. There are obvious concerns about the Packers quarterback situation at the moment. And the rookie might not get a full-time role right away and could remain third on the depth chart.

Davante Adams grades better from the slot compared to out wide, so Rodgers might not always be on the field when Adams is in the slot. Green Bay used Tyler Ervin and then Tavon Austin in a gadget role last season; they could use Rodgers similarly, and that won’t necessarily lead to fantasy success.

Rodgers is a perfect high-risk, high-reward player to target at the end of the second round or start of the third round in rookie drafts.

26. TE Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

Overview
School Penn State
Position Tight End
Class Junior
Age 22
Player comp Jordan Akins
Positional rank TE2
Measurables
Measurable Percentile
Height 6-foot-5 73rd
Weight 251 51st
Arm 32.50 33rd
Hand 9.88 58th
Workout Metrics

N/A

Fantasy Outlook

Freiermuth has already earned the nickname “Baby Gronk,” which can only be a good sign for his future production.

The newfound comparisons to the Buccaneers tight end are primarily down to Freiermuth's run blocking, something that won’t help a lot with his fantasy value but should ensure he becomes an every-down tight end sooner rather than later. He also improved substantially as a pass-catcher each season, ending his junior season with a strong 23% target share and 2.33 yards per route run.

The Penn State product was primarily used as an inline tight end early in his college career, though he did receive some playing time from the slot. He isn’t likely to line up all over the field — as Florida's Kyle Pitts surely will — but playing from the slot and inline will be enough for him to produce.

Freiermuth is projected to be a second-round pick this April and should be the second rookie tight end off draft boards in both re-draft and dynasty leagues. There are plenty of teams in need of a multi-purpose tight end, so he could earn a Week 1 starting role and see plenty of playing time.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % Inline snap percentage aDOT
2020 83.0 23 310 23% 2.33 5.7 51.4% 45.9% 9.4
2019 74.6 43 507 17% 1.60 6.3 37.3% 60.4% 7.8
2018 68.3 26 368 13% 1.35 3.5 36.0% 62.5% 11.4
Career 79.9 92 1,185 16% 1.64 5.4 39.1% 58.9% 9.4
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
24% 27% 20
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The Steelers have been searching for a long-term solution at tight end since Heath Miller retired, and they hopefully found one in Freiermuth.

Freiermuth was added in the second round of the draft and will likely spend his first year as the second tight end on the depth chart. Vance McDonald retired after functioning as the No. 2 TE last season. Eric Ebron underperformed in his first season with Pittsburgh, and his contract will expire at the end of the 2021 season. Freiermuth likely won’t have fantasy value in 2021 as a backup, but his future is brighter.

Tight ends in the Steelers offense have been valuable fantasy assets in the past, making this one of the better landing spots for Freiermuth long-term. He was already the second-best fantasy tight end coming into the draft, and now the gap between him and all the rookie tight ends behind him is larger.

27. WR Tylan Wallace, Baltimore Ravens

Overview
School Oklahoma State
Position Wide Receiver
Class Senior
Age 22
Player comp Bryan Edwards
Positional rank WR8
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot 42nd
Weight 194 33rd
Arm 30.38 13th
Hand 9.38 58th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.48 55th
Shuttle 4.25 49th
Vertical jump 33 18th
Broad jump 112 26th
Three-cone 6.97 45th
Bench press 11 26th
Fantasy Outlook

Wallace was constantly productive throughout his college career. Oklahoma State lined Wallace up at right wide receiver and let him attack defenses. He found production on deep passes, which left him with high average depth of target and air yard shares. He excelled at making contested catches, where he had the fourth-most for wide receivers last season with 13.

There are concerns about his work on shorter passes and his ability to face physical cornerbacks. He could benefit greatly from a move to the slot according to our draft guide. He excels in his release when given space, which he could do more easily out of the slot then out wide like he played in college.

He is expected to be drafted around the third round. More often than not, third-round receivers don’t contribute much as a rookie. 10 of the last 17 third-round wide receivers failed to hit 250 receiving yards in their rookie season.

Wallace has a chance to contribute as a rookie as an occasional deep threat or slot receiver. He could potentially see more success early if paired with the right quarterback who can have good ball placement to help with his contested catches. Ideally, he is given some time to become a more polished and complete wide receiver. If someone trusts him enough to draft him in the top two rounds, then he might have some re-draft value. If not, his value is just in the second round of dynasty drafts.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 86.1 59 922 32% 3.26 5.0 11.9% 14.8 45%
2019 81.4 53 895 37% 3.48 9.8 13.4% 11.3 46%
2018 86.2 86 1,489 30% 2.88 3.5 8.3% 17.4 45%
Career 91.2 198 3,306 26% 3.13 5.7 10.7% 15.0 36%
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Wallace fell down our dynasty rankings after landing with the Ravens. He went a round later than we expected and to a team that already drafted a wide receiver in the draft. Baltimore has taken four wide receivers in the past three seasons with earlier draft picks than they picked Wallace, and the team also added Sammy Watkins in free agency.

This will make it difficult for Wallace to contribute much as a rookie. The best case for Wallace is to find a home as the Ravens’ long-term slot receiver. Watkins is likely to see the majority of the slot work in 2021 after playing there significantly in Kansas City. He is on a one-year deal, and Wallace will need to play well enough for the Ravens not to re-sign him.

In that case, Wallace will also need to outplay 2020 third-round pick Devin Duvernay to maintain the slot role in the future.

28. WR Jaelon Darden, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Overview
School North Texas
Position Wide Receiver
Class Senior
Age 22.2
Player comp Jamison Crowder
Positional rank WR13
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-foot-8 2nd
Weight 174 4th
Arm N/A N/A
Hand N/A N/A
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.46 63rd
Shuttle 3.98 97th
Vertical jump 35.5 47th
Broad jump 10’2” 54th
Three-cone 6.66 93rd
Bench press 11 26th
Fantasy Outlook

Darden took his game to another level as a senior in 2020. Despite playing in three fewer games, the North Texas receiver equaled his previous-year reception total while increasing his efficiency by running routes further down the field. His 4.3 yards per route run in 2020 was the second-best final-season number of more than 600 wide receivers who had at least 50 receptions since 2006.

Draft position is the big issue. As a somewhat older prospect from a small school, it’ll be an uphill battle for him to climb into Day 2 of the NFL draft despite his outstanding production numbers. Darden’s level of competition is much worse than Power 5 players, adding uncertainty to his ability to replicate that explosiveness in the NFL.

Darden lacks outside reps at receiver, but his YAC and deep-target rate are both strong. The type of athletes North Texas faced couldn’t contain him. His other comps were mostly yards-after-catch specialists, which is what Darden may be reduced to in the NFL.

The 5-foot-8 receiver isn’t the same level of athlete as a similarly sized receiver like Elijah Moore, but he could be seen as a much cheaper option in draft capital for teams looking for a productive slot receiver. In the right landing spot, Darden could be productive very early in his career.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 89.8 74 1,190 37% 4.31 7.7 86% 12.9 36%
2019 78.0 74 735 23% 2.25 6.4 94% 7.1 20%
2018 76.0 48 575 12% 2.14 6.9 97% 6.5 10%
Career 85.0 228 2,781 20% 2.51 6.8 94% 8.9 19%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
29% 61% 21
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Darden joins a crowded receiving group for the Buccaneers. Beyond headliners Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the Buccaneers brought back Antonio Brown and still have Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson. There’s a chance Darden sees material action in 2021, but it’s not a high-probability scenario.

Darden had one of the strongest production profiles of the class, so he could be a player to stash on the bench and hope that talent wins out in a year or two. Darden’s 4.3 yards per route run in 2020 was the second-best final-season number among more than 600 wide receivers who had at least 50 receptions since 2006.

29. QB Mac Jones, New England Patriots

Overview
School Alabama
Position Quarterback
Class Senior
Age 23
Player comp Derek Carr
Positional rank QB5
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-3 46th
Weight 217 35th
Arm 32.5 66th
Hand 9.75 65th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.68 78th
Shuttle 4.39 40th
Vertical jump 32 56th
Broad jump 116 76th
Three-cone 7.04 67th
Bench press N/A N/A
Fantasy Outlook

Give credit where credit is due. That’s the story of Mac Jones’ 2020 season when he operated one of the best offenses in college football history. His adjusted completion percentage (84.2%) and PFF passing grade (94.8) ranked first and second in the nation, respectively. Both were superior to Joe Burrow’s magical 2019 Heisman season.

Even with easy screen plays removed that often boost passing production — Jones finished second in the nation in screen yards — the Crimson Tide quarterback still led the nation in passer rating (147.0) and adjusted completion percentage (80%).

PFF’s 13th-ranked player on the NFL Draft Big Board did everything he could to spike his draft stock, but there are some red flags we need to address for fantasy purposes.

The situation at Alabama was absolutely perfect, with NFL-caliber players everywhere.  The receivers certainly made life easy for him — no quarterback accumulated more yardage from open receivers than Jones.

We've also seen only one year of elite production. The pieces around him in the NFL will not give him as much of an advantage.

But the elephant in the room has to be that he offers nothing next to nothing as a runner or out of the structure — he finished the year with just 79 rushing yards. If Jones is going to be a force in fantasy football, he is going to have to become one of the top pocket passers in the NFL.

The San Francisco 49ers are rumored to be the team most likely to select Jones with the No. 3 overall pick. That landing spot would realize Jones’ highest fantasy ceiling. His accuracy, great decision making and movement within the pocket would transition well into the Shanahan offense.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade TDs INTs Yards Yards per attempt Big-time throw rate Passer rating (clean pocket) aDOT Rushing attempts Rushing yards
2020 95.8 41 4 4,494 11.1 7.4% 142.5 8.8 26 79
2019 78.7 14 3 1,503 10.7 5.3% 129.6 8.4 15 51
2018 61.0 1 0 123 9.5 7.7% 129.5 7.0 8 -11
Career 94.6 56 7 6,120 10.9 6.9% 140.5 8.6 49 119
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The New England Patriots did not have to move up to secure their QB of the future. Jones fell into their laps at No. 15, and I would anticipate that he starts for the Patriots sooner rather than later. But as PFF’s Ian Hartitz noted during PFF’s Live Draft Show, the lack of rushing upside is going to limit his fantasy ceiling. Jones will have to become one of the top pocket passers in the NFL to be a force in fantasy football.

In Year 1, don’t expect Jones to be anything more than a streamable quarterback. He can be a fill-in on bye weeks and be a low-end starter in plus matchups.

One of Jones' major strengths is his accuracy as an underneath passer, so he's a good sign for the team's tight end duo of Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. Jones is a breath of fresh air for all the pass-catchers in the Patriots’ offense. He’s more accurate than Cam Newton and will supplement his receivers with more passing volume.

30. WR D'Wayne Eskridge, Seattle Seahawks

Overview
School Western Michigan
Position Wide Receiver
Class Senior
Age 24
Player comp Diontae Johnson
Positional rank WR17
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-foot-9 5th
Weight 190 25th
Arm 30.50 16th
Hand 8.63 10th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.38 89th
Shuttle 4.22 54th
Vertical jump 35 41st
Broad jump 124 70th
Three-cone 6.95 50th
Bench press N/A N/A
Fantasy Outlook

Eskridge posted impressive numbers over his college career but was especially productive in his senior season, averaging over 20 yards per reception and 4.94 yards per route run.

He looks like a Day 2 pick if we’re to believe the predictive ability of recent mock drafts, which gives him a number of intriguing comps at the NFL level. He brings speed and top-notch production numbers according to his top-season market shares and excellent efficiency on both a per-route and per-catch basis.

He played primarily on the outside at Western Michigan, but his 5-foot-9 frame will likely pigeonhole him as more of a slot receiver in the NFL. His route tree was limited in college, which is another concern, and he is already on the older side for a wide receiver turning pro, having just turned 24 years of age.

Eskridge should get pushed to the fourth round of the NFL draft. He will likely see some designed plays aiming to take advantage of his speed, but it may take a season or two for him to see significant playing time. He would be in his mid-to-late 20s by that time, far from ideal for a dynasty prospect.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 86.9 34 786 31% 4.94 14.4 27.1% 12.7 37%
2019 90.4 3 73 6% 14.60 6.7 12.5% 15.3 9%
2018 73.0 37 767 21% 2.57 5.9 0.8% 20.0 39%
Career 84.1 74 1,626 18% 3.52 9.8 10.8% 17.0 27%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
24% 45% 21
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The Seahawks had a need for a third wide receiver, so Eskridge should earn significant playing time early in his rookie year. Both David Moore and Freddie Swain rotated as the third wide receiver while the team waited for Josh Gordon to return. Gordon’s return didn’t happen, and Moore left in free agency. Eskridge shouldn’t have much of a problem beating out Swain for the No. 3 spot.

The downside is that Eskridge probably won’t be able to move up from the third receiver spot anytime soon. Tyler Lockett signed a four-year contract extension a month before the draft, which will leave him as a Seahawks starter for a minimum of three more seasons. D.K. Metcalf is under contract for two more seasons and is primed for a large contract extension before his contract is over. Eskridge would need to be excellent to ever rank third on his team in targets.

Eskridge is worth a third-round dynasty pick — any second-round rookie deserves at least that, but it will likely take an injury for him to become a fantasy starter in the next few seasons.

31. WR Tutu Atwell, Los Angeles Rams

Overview
School Louisville
Position Wide Receiver
Class Junior
Age 21
Player comp K.J. Hamler
Positional rank WR19
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-foot-9 5th
Weight 155 0
Arm N/A N/A
Hand N/A N/A
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.42 78th
Shuttle 4.14 75th
Vertical jump 33 18th
Broad jump 119 22nd
Three-cone 6.89 61st
Bench press N/A N/A
Fantasy Outlook

Atwell is another smaller receiver who will probably be used in the slot and as a gadget weapon. He was frequently targeted on passes behind the line of scrimmage in college, but he was also able to use his speed advantage to make plays in the deep passing game.

NFL teams will always find a role for someone with his skill set, so he should get drafted in the middle rounds this April. However, he shouldn’t necessarily be drafted as high in fantasy drafts because his size limits his upside.

The 2021 wide receiver class boasts several players who rely on speed to win, but Atwell's proven track record as a playmaker separates him from the pack. Yes, his speed is his main selling point, but he's more than just a raw athlete — he's shown that he can find ways to get open and come down with the football.

His ideal landing spot is a team that doesn’t have a lot of skill players. That would maximize both his playing time and touches. In that situation, a gadget player could be a large part of the offense.

If he lands with a team that already has an established pass-catching corps, Atwell’s ceiling would be a few touches per game on offense, not nearly enough to warrant putting him in fantasy lineups.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 77.1 46 625 26% 2.44 6.2 79.8% 11.6 33%
2019 91.2 70 1,270 34% 4.33 10.7 83.7% 11.1 36%
2018 56.9 24 406 13% 1.17 6.8 97.7% 15.6 22%
Career 83.0 140 2,301 24% 2.57 8.6 87.3% 12.3 30%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
32% 40% 19
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The Los Angeles Rams added Atwell in the second round to the surprise of many. He joins a crowded Los Angeles receiving room. Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods have dominated the Rams' target share in recent seasons. Los Angeles spent a second-round pick last season on Van Jefferson and added DeSean Jackson in free agency.

This means Atwell might not factor into the Rams plans too much in 2021. Jackson will probably only be with the team for a season, but Atwell will probably be part of a four-man rotation for a few seasons. Atwell could be considered a gadget player: The Rams could very well have a few plays per game designed for him but not enough for him to have fantasy value.

Second-round wide receivers should at least be third-round dynasty picks regardless of the concerns we might have for Atwell.

32. RB Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears

Overview
School Virginia Tech
Position Running Back
Class Graduate
Age 23
Player Comp Mike Weber
Positional Rank RB5
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-foot-9 16th
Weight 210 41st
Arm 31.25 63rd
Hand 8.5 6th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.46 77th
Shuttle 4.31 66th
Vertical Jump 33 28th
Broad Jump 115 24th
Three-Cone 6.96 66th
Bench Press 22 76th
Fantasy Outlook

Virginia Tech’s Khalil Herbert becomes a man amongst boys the minute he gets his paws on the football. The graduate transfer tied Jaret Patterson for the lead in yards after contact per attempt (4.74) among the 2021 draft class and finished second in total yards after contact (734) behind only Najee Harris.

Herbert earned PFF’s third-highest rushing grade (90.0) at Kansas in 2019 while averaging 9.2 yards per attempt — the second-highest average in the nation. In 2020, he unleashed his full potential as a grad transfer at Virginia Tech, finishing as PFF’s second-highest graded rusher (91.3, 27% dominator rating) while ranking third in yards per carry (7.6) and breakaway rate (55%) among the 2021 draft class.

Herbert’s draft age (23) brings forth a reason to fade him in fantasy, but age is less important at running back. The rookie deal is really all we're focused on as fantasy managers. Plus, Herbert played in a running back committee until last season, so there’s still plenty of tread on the tires.

His real concern is just lack of work as a pass-catcher — he never had more than 10 catches in a season. But Herbert certainly made the most of those receptions — his yards after the catch per reception (19.9) was the highest mark at the running back position.

The well-rounded back will benefit greatly from landing on a team that primarily operates a heavy play action, zone scheme. Herbert owns PFF’s highest grade (91.7) and ranks first in yards per attempt (9.2) on outside-zone runs since 2019.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Carries Yards Yards per attempt Yards after contact per attempt Missed tackles forced per attempt Receptions Target share Dominator rating
2020 89.5 155 1,172 7.6 4.7 0.27 10 9.9% 27%
2019 87.2 42 388 9.2 5.2 0.43 1 3.5% 20%
2018 73.5 113 494 4.4 3.2 0.22 9 5.4% 14%
Career 84.3 474 2,906 6.1 3.8 0.23 35 5.7% 20%
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The Chicago Bears backfield was once clearly dominated by David Montgomery, but it has become extremely muddled. Veterans Damien Williams and Tarik Cohen will be in the mix, along with sixth-round rookie selection Khalil Herbert. The Virginia Tech product has a legitimate shot to win the backup role outright and would likely be a 1-for-1 replacement for Montgomery should an injury occur.

He should thrive in that role given the Bears’ heavy outside-zone scheme. The team finished fourth in outside-zone rushing attempts in 2020. Herbert earned PFF’s highest grade (91.7) among running backs and ranks first in yards per attempt (9.2) on outside-zone runs since 2019.

Herbert’s ability to contribute to special teams will ensure he’s active on game day.

33. RB Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots

Overview
School Oklahoma
Position Running Back
Class Senior
Age 23.1
Player Comp Arian Foster
Positional Rank RB10
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot 73rd
Weight 230 89th
Arm 30.25 28th
Hand 9.0 35th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.63 18th
Shuttle 4.47 13th
Vertical Jump 32 14th
Broad Jump 9’4” 10th
Three-Cone 7.02 55th
Bench Press 15 18th
Fantasy Outlook

Stevenson is a junior college transfer who broke out in limited games played as a senior. He put up solid numbers at his recent pro day, slimming down to 230 pounds and posting a 4.62-second 40-yard dash. His three-cone drill came in at 7.02 seconds, a stellar time for a man of his size.

Stevenson’s three catch per game receiving volume and receiving market share (15% of team receptions) from 2020 are both top-notch numbers for any running back, let alone one weighing in at 230 pounds.

He is extremely well-rounded, according to our advanced stat percentiles, with a top-notch rushing grade and a strong receiving grade. He was elite in his ability to force missed tackles and generate yards after contact, as well.

A caveat applies to the Oklahoma back — as it does for most of the 2021 class — as he has a limited final-season sample to base the numbers upon. Still, Stevenson did crack 100 rushing attempts in the six games he played in 2020.

He is one of the few projected later-round backs who has the requisite size to carry a big workload at the NFL. Stevenson will need to avoid being pigeonholed as a short-yardage, early-down thumper to be truly useful in fantasy.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Carries Yards Yards per attempt Yards after contact per attempt Missed tackles forced per attempt Receptions Target share Dominator rating
2020 90.4 101 665 6.6 3.9 0.36 18 12% 25%
2019 86.6 64 515 8.0 5.9 0.23 10 6% 9%
2018 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Career 92.4 165 1,180 7.2 4.7 0.31 28 9% 14%
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The Patriots plucked Stevenson in the fourth round, adding the big back to a crowded position group. Stevenson is extremely well-rounded, according to our advanced-stat percentiles, with a top-notch rushing grade and a strong receiving grade. He was elite in his ability to force missed tackles and generate yards after contact, as well.

Stevenson showed receiving ability last season, averaging three catches per game. Cam Newton steals much of the goal-line work, though the sooner Mac Jones starts the better for Stevenson’s fantasy prospects.

Stevenson isn’t the highest-ceiling running back, but he at least has the requisite size to be a three-down back and more draft capital invested in him than some higher-rated dynasty picks.

34. WR Anthony Schwartz, Cleveland Browns

Overview
School Auburn
Position Wide Receiver
Class Junior
Age 20.5
Player comp Kenny Stills
Positional rank WR16
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot 38th
Weight 186 18th
Arm 31.5 38th
Hand 9.38 58th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.26 99th
Shuttle 4.25 49th
Vertical jump 32 11th
Broad jump 10’3” 62nd
Three-cone 7.13 18th
Bench press N/A N/A
Fantasy Outlook

Schwartz performed well in his pro-day workouts, posting an elite 40-yard dash time around 4.3 seconds. Athleticism is less important for projecting wide receiver success, but it has a major impact on draft position. The big question coming out of Schwartz’s pro day is whether his 40 time will boost his expected draft position or if it was baked into the current forecast of a mid-third round pick.

The Auburn wideout is on the younger side for an NFL prospect, as he will turn 21 right at the start of the season. That could signal the potential for growth in the NFL and gives a more favorable light to his weaker production numbers.

Schwartz was highly dependent on after-the-catch yardage and wasn’t targeted deep very often for a player with outstanding speed. Many of his big plays came on shorter throws that he turned into long runs.

He is the WR26 on the PFF NFL draft big board at 171 overall — a healthy 80 spots worse than his expected draft position based on recent mock drafts. Our receiving grade for Schwartz’s final season puts him in the 11th percentile, though he didn’t get much help from his quarterbacks, who posted passer ratings at the eighth percentile.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 70.9 54 635 26% 2.31 9.0 52% 8.0 27%
2019 73.9 41 438 14% 2.75 6.2 41% 8.6 15%
2018 65.3 22 355 10% 1.91 12.2 36% 7.8 10%
Career 73.7 117 1,428 17% 2.30 8.6 44% 8.1 17%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
16% 29% 20
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Schwartz joins Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry in the Browns’ receiving group. As a late third-round pick, Schwartz has meaningful draft capital behind him, and both Beckham and Landry could leave the Browns in coming years.

Schwartz is pure speed, posting an elite 40-yard dash time around 4.3 seconds. Athleticism is less important for projecting wide receiver success, but it has a major impact on draft position.

Schwartz will likely be used around the line of scrimmage and far downfield as a rookie, making splash plays without consistent production.

35. WR Seth Williams, Denver Broncos

Overview
School Auburn
Position Wide Receiver
Class Junior
Age 21.9
Player comp Brandon LaFell
Positional rank WR11
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-3 84th
Weight 211 73rd
Arm 33.5 91st
Hand 9.88 86th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.49 51st
Shuttle 4.43 12th
Vertical jump 37 70th
Broad jump 10’4” 70th
Three-cone 7.20 12th
Bench press 12 32nd
Fantasy Outlook

Williams contributed immediately as a true freshman in 2018, accounting for 535 receiving yards, 14% of team targets and 27% of team air yards. He, however, didn’t translate dominant air yards shares over his career into equally strong production, though a healthy portion of the blame falls on poor quarterback play with Bo Nix topping out with a 66.4 pass grade in 2020.

Williams profiles as a bigger-bodied, explosive receiver who doesn’t create separation but should win at the catch point. Unfortunately, the evidence of that skill is sparse after Williams only converted 36% of his 75 career contested catches.

Draft position will be pivotal for the opportunity Williams finds at the next level, with mock drafts projecting him to go anywhere between the middle of the third round all the way to sixth round.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 69.8 47 759 27% 2.05 5.5 27 13.8 47%
2019 73.5 59 830 28% 2.46 4.3 13 13.0 42%
2018 72.3 26 535 14% 1.74 4.6 66 15.1 27%
Career 76.4 132 2,124 23% 2.09 4.8 34 13.7 39%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
30% 37% 19.4
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Williams joins a deep and younger receiver group with the Broncos. He has some similar qualities as Courtland Sutton, whose rookie contract ends this season.

Williams profiles as a bigger-bodied, explosive receiver who doesn’t create separation but should win at the catch point. Unfortunately, the evidence of that skill is sparse after Williams only converted 36% of his 75 career contested catches.

36. RB Chris Evans, Cincinnati Bengals

Overview
School Michigan
Position Running Back
Class RS – Senior
Age 24
Player comp Leon Washington
Positional rank RB20
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-foot-11 63rd
Weight 211 42nd
Arm 32.5 36th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.44 80th
Shuttle 4.14 83rd
Vertical jump 40.5 95th
Broad jump 127 90th
Three-cone 6.56 99th
Bench press 20 58th
Fantasy Outlook 

Chris Evans boosted his draft stock tremendously after an impressive showing at his pro day. He flashed his athleticism by clocking in at 4.44 seconds on the 40-yard dash and 6.56 on the three-cone drill.

Evans looked the part of Michigan’s next feature back after a stunning true freshmen season in 2016 when he finished fourth in the nation in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.32). Alas, 2016 would be his peak, and his production declined for the rest of his college career.

He ended up splitting time with other backs from 2017-2018, was suspended for the entire 2019 season and saw little usage in 2020. All in all, Evans handled just 16 carries over the past two years.

His middling usage in college is a real concern, but if an NFL team likes him enough to invest decent draft capital, he has fantasy potential. There’s virtually no tread on his tires, and he can provide a team with excellent pass-catching chops.

Evans flaunted his receiving prowess at the Senior Bowl, which garnered interest from NFL teams. Few backs in this class offer an ideal size/speed profile and coveted three-down skill set like Evans, which makes him a quintessential late-round RB to target in dynasty rookie drafts. Just keep in mind that he turns 24 at the start of the season.

Player Stats 
Season Overall grade Carries Yards Yards per attempt Yards after contact per attempt Missed tackles forced per attempt Receptions Target share Dominator rating
2018 73.2 81 423 5.2 3.6 0.19 18 7.2% 13%
2017 77.8 135 682 5.0 3.6 0.25 16 7.7% 19%
2016 73.7 88 614 7.0 4.2 0.32 6 4.2% 9%
Career 80.6 320 1,792 5.6 3.7 0.26 49 6.3% 13%
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Ladies and gentlemen, we have found our new backup for Joe Mixon. Michigan running back Chris Evans has seen his production decline since a stellar 2016 season, but his ideal size/speed profile and coveted three-down skill set make him the perfect plug-and-play option should anything happen to Mixon. Evans is a freakish athlete, which should help him rise the ranks to No. 2 RB status over plodding RBs Samaje Perine and Trayveon Williams.

Fellow rookie Pooka Williams Jr. is a candidate to fill in the scatback role left by Giovani Bernard, so he’s not too much of a threat to Evans’ backup status.

37. WR Simi Fehoko, Dallas Cowboys

Overview
School Stanford
Position Wide Receiver
Class Junior
Age 21.2
Player comp Quincy Enunwa
Positional rank WR28
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-3 84th
Weight 222 92nd
Arm 31.63 41st
Hand 10.25 96th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.42 78th
Shuttle 4.23 52nd
Vertical jump 35 36th
Broad jump 10’0” 40th
Three-cone 6.86 67th
Bench press 16 69th
Fantasy Outlook

Fehoko had an incredibly strong pro day, posting a 4.42-second 40-yard dash, weighing in at 222 pounds and completing the three-cone drill in 6.86 seconds. He’s big, and he’s an athlete.

Athleticism is less important for projecting wide receiver success, but it can have a major impact on draft position. The question will be how much this kind of under-the-radar pro day moves expected draft positions, especially for a prospect who was widely known to be a physical marvel.

Fehoko was able to use his size and speed to make big plays at the collegiate level, though perhaps not as often as you’d hope for a future NFL star.

It’s a little surprising that Fehoko chose to enter the draft despite limited career production, totaling only 62 catches over three seasons. He did break out in 2020, leading his team with a 27% target share and accounted for 42% of targeted air yards.

Fehoko could be a surprise selection on Day 2 in the 2021 NFL draft, which would dramatically increase his stock in rookie dynasty drafts.

Player Stats (WRs)
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 75.8 37 574 27% 2.73 5.4 30% 12.6 42%
2019 67.6 24 566 12% 2.13 7.0 48% 21.9 30%
2018 51.7 1 6 4% 0.16 1.0 21% 8.0 3%
Career 72.1 62 1,146 16% 2.23 5.9 39% 16.8 30%

Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
30% 38% 20
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Fehoko is the athletic freak of the draft, and he joins one of the best receiving trios in the NFL of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup. Fehoko had an incredibly strong pro day, posting a 4.42-second 40-yard dash, weighing in at 222 pounds and completing the three-cone drill in 6.86 seconds.

Getting onto the field will be the issue for Fehoko this season, but 2022 could be a different story. Gallup hits free agency after this season, so if the Cowboys don’t extend Gallup’s contract this offseason they could look to get Fehoko some work as a tryout for a bigger role in the future. Dak Prescott will be in the fold for the foreseeable future, meaning that there should be enough production to go around for multiple receivers in Dallas for the next several years.

38. RB Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers

Overview
School Louisiana
Position Running Back
Class Senior
Age 23
Player Comp Travis Homer
Positional Rank RB9
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-foot-10 41st
Weight 201 20th
Arm 31.00 56th
Hand 9.50 75th
 Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.38 96th
Shuttle 4.19 73rd
Vertical Jump 38 81st
Broad Jump 128 93rd
Three-Cone 6.94 71st
Bench Press 17 31st
Fantasy Outlook

If there’s one player in this draft class who could be this year’s James Robinson, it’s the Ragin’ Cajun running back Elijah Mitchell, who ranks first in career yards per snap (3.58) and second in 2020 yards per snap (4.5) among all the running backs in this class.

Mitchell has a three-down NFL skill set with a combination of size, speed, contact balance and explosiveness. He blazed an unofficial 4.38 40-yard dash (96th percentile) and a 128-inch broad jump (93rd percentile).

Nearly all of Mitchell’s testing numbers were off-the-charts good compared to the rest of this year’s running back class. His broad jump matched Travis Etienne’s to lead the class, demonstrating his high-end athleticism. That in itself is worth taking a flier on in the late rounds of best-ball and dynasty rookie drafts.

The 2018 season provides a glimpse of his upside — that's when he was most involved in the passing game. Mitchell caught 20 passes for 349 yards and finished third in yards after the catch per reception (16.1).

His efficiency as a pass-catcher elevated his yards per snap average to 4.50, which was the second-highest single-season mark among running backs in the 2021 draft class (Chuba Hubbard, 5.51).

Mitchell’s overall lackluster dominator rating (22%) is the one key piece missing from his profile that could potentially put him over the top, but that’s because he played alongside other solid college backs.

Trey Ragas has been there since Mitchell’s freshman year and has two seasons of 86.0-plus PFF rushing grades on his resume. Ragas is draft-eligible this year and finished third in forced missed tackles per attempt (0.35) in 2020.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Carries Yards Yards per attempt Yards after contact per attempt Missed tackles forced per attempt Receptions Target share Dominator rating
2020 85.8 141 869 6.2 4.04 0.29 16 6.9% 21%
2019 86.9 198 1,147 5.8 3.80 0.28 10 5% 21%
2018 83.8 145 973 6.7 4.59 0.26 20 8.4% 26%
Career 92.8 526 3,246 6.2 4.14 0.27 49 6.1% 22%
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Moore was the sixth wide receiver drafted, going near the top of the second round to the New York Jets. The Jets already have Jamison Crowder occupying the slot, Moore’s most likely alignment in the NFL. The rookie could play outside more frequently this season if the Jets don’t trade Crowder, or the team could do so to save cap space and free up slot snaps for Moore.

At 5-foot-9 and only 178 pounds, Moore doesn’t profile as a receiver who can transition to a more valuable outside role in the NFL, but he did reduce his slot usage in his final college season to 80% of snaps from nearly all snaps the prior two years.

The Jets’ receiving group is full of potential but features few solid options. Moore could emerge sooner rather than later as a top target for fellow rookie Zach Wilson.

39. WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Minnesota Vikings

Overview
School Iowa
Position Wide Receiver
Class Senior
Age 22
Player comp Jalen Guyton
Positional rank WR18
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-1 46th
Weight 181 10th
Arm N/A N/A
Hand N/A N/A
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.43 74th
Shuttle 4.20 59th
Vertical jump 37 70th
Broad jump 124 70th
Three-cone 7.00 41st
Bench press 10 17th
Fantasy Outlook

Smith-Marsette put on a show at the Iowa pro day, running the 40-yard dash in 4.43 seconds, hitting 37 inches in the vertical, 10-foot-4 in the broad and coming in at an even 7.0 seconds in the three-cone drill. Athleticism is less important for projecting wide receiver success, but it can significantly impact draft position. He could see his draft stock rise following these results.

The Iowa wide receiver wasn’t the most productive in college, but the Hawkeye offense wasn’t strong overall, and his market share numbers look better than the raw totals. Smith-Marsette is also a relatively young prospect for a senior, which means he played at a very young age as a true freshman and sophomore, which hurt his career market share numbers.

Smith-Marsette never graded particularly well during his four collegiate seasons, but he was held back by poor quarterback play. Passes thrown his way were graded in the 11th percentile among historical wide receiver prospects. He lined up in the traditionally more valuable outside position nearly half of the time. He was also above average in yards-after-catch generation and how often he was targeted deep. With better quarterback play, a few additional completions on those deep targets could have had an outsized positive effect on his production.

If he can up his weight and improve his hands, it should be enough for him to put up respectable enough stats to make him worth a gamble in DFS.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 61.0 25 345 18% 1.84 5.1 26.3% 13.9 28%
2019 71.8 44 722 18% 2.12 5.0 13.9% 12.1 24%
2018 61.9 23 334 14% 1.58 3.6 13.9% 12.6 20%
Career 68.0 92 1,401 15% 1.90 4.7 17.1% 12.7 23%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
20% 33% 20
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Smith-Marsette landed with the Minnesota Vikings in the fifth round. The top two spots on the depth chart are set, but the rest are up in the air. Chad Beebe and Olabisi Johnson both saw significant playing time last season. K.J. Osborn was a fifth-round pick by Minnesota last season who didn’t see the field.

Even if Smith-Marsette is able to surpass all of those players to be the Vikings’ third receiver, he would be the fifth-best receiving option on the field. Smith-Marsette will only be able to become a fantasy asset when he can surpass Adam Thielen on the depth chart. Thielen will be 31 before the start of the regular season, but he is coming off one of the best seasons of his career. Anyone drafting Smith-Marsette will need to be patient.

40. WR/TE Jacob Harris, Los Angeles Rams

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Harris is an intriguing talent who will begin the transition from college wide receiver to NFL tight end. But while the fourth-round pick does possess a fascinating skill set, there are several reasons why he isn’t likely to be an effective tight end option in redraft leagues.

The UCF product was able to pull in 50% of his contested targets last season. He also put up absurdly productive per-touch efficiency metrics, including a 17.4-yard average depth of target and 18.1 receiving yards per reception. Yes, the numbers are great on the surface, but things simply won't be that easy for him at the pro level. The learning curve for first-year tight ends is just too steep.

It will most likely take Harris multiple seasons to learn the essentials of playing his new position, making him a much more intriguing stash in dynasty leagues.

The Rams recently lost tight end Gerald Everett to the Seattle Seahawks in free agency, so that has opened up a legit path to fantasy relevance in two-tight end leagues. The main issue is that former fourth-round pick Brycen Hopkins will have the first crack at securing the TE2 role for the Rams this season.

The odds are stacked against him producing a strong rookie season and remaining fantasy-relevant in redraft leagues.

41. WR Cornell Powell, Kansas City Chiefs

Overview
School Clemson
Position Wide Receiver
Class Senior
Age 23.4
Player comp Olabisi Johnson
Positional rank WR29
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot 42nd
Weight 204 56th
Arm 32.75 74th
Hand 10.00 90th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.51 42nd
Shuttle 4.23 52nd
Vertical jump 37 63rd
Broad jump 10’8” 89th
Three-cone 6.93 55th
Bench press 16 69th
Fantasy Outlook 

As an older prospect who didn’t have more than 50 yards in a game until Week 9 in his fifth season, there’s not a lot going for Powell from a statistical standpoint. He didn’t break out until his age-23 season, and his share of targets was still a modest 16%. Clemson is a challenging place for a receiver to stand above stronger collective talent, but it won’t get any easier for Powell in the NFL.

Advanced stats and our grading paint a rosy picture for Powell. His receiving grade was above the 90th percentile in 2020; he was used primarily in a more coveted role on the outside; and he was able to generate production through the air in a college system that focuses on easier yards-after-catch production.

Despite the hints of potential that come with Powell’s advanced stats, he’ll have to find the perfect combination of opportunity and passing game fit to make it at the next level.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 75.1 53 882 16% 2.22 5.9 6% 13.2 27%
2019 60.7 15 122 6% 1.28 3.7 56% 11.3 7%
2018 57.6 5 63 6% 2.03 6.6 3% 4.9 3%
Career 71.3 92 1,205 9% 1.81 5.6 16% 11.0 12%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
14% 22% 23

42. TE Brevin Jordan, Houston Texans

Overview
School Miami (FL)
Position Tight End
Class Junior
Age 21
Player comp Jace Sternberger
Positional rank TE3
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-3 13th
Weight 247 32nd
Arm 32.88 43rd
Hand 9.75 54th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.69 65th
Shuttle
Vertical jump 31 22nd
Broad jump 118 51st
Three-cone
Bench press 17 27th
Fantasy Outlook

Jordan is a tight end with a running back build, and he uses that slighter frame to dominate with the ball in his hands over the middle of the field. His numbers improved each year in college, and he shined in his ability to turn short passes into big gains with the help of his speed and elusiveness.

There are a few hurdles Jordan will need to overcome before he can ascend to fantasy relevance, as his contested catch rate is low for a tight end and he wasn’t as much of a threat on deeper passes despite running a considerable number of deeper routes. He’s also unproven as a run-blocker and didn’t look great on a smaller sample size.

The biggest concern from a fantasy perspective is that he might not be all that much of a difference-maker in the red zone. Tight ends who fall outside of the top five at the position simply need that touchdown upside, and Jordan’s strengths might not get him there.

PFF's 2021 NFL Draft Guide pegs him as a third-round prospect. But if a team caters to his strengths, he might muster up enough catches and yards to breach the top 10, even with a below-average touchdown rate.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % Inline snap percentage aDOT
2020 74.1 38 576 19% 2.70 9.3 57.3% 22.9% 8.2
2019 70.9 35 495 15% 1.96 8.9 25.7% 66.9% 7.9
2018 61.6 32 287 16% 1.01 5.6 26.0% 66.7% 7.3
Career 72.7 105 1,358 17% 1.81 8.1 34.9% 54.2% 7.8
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
17% 23% 18
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The fifth-round tight end was a luxury pick for the Texans, and he'll now join a crowded tight end room that includes a run-blocking specialist in Pharaoh Brown and three others fighting for the receiving tight end role. Houston wasn’t afraid to roster four tight ends at times last season, but none of those players held any fantasy relevancy.

At the very least, Jordan has a chance to beat the competition and become the team’s starter. Of course, there is also a chance he spends every week inactive because they like the other tight ends on the roster. And even if he does win the starting job, the quarterback situation in Houston is questionable at best.

The most likely scenario is that the Houston Texans coaching staff utilizes a rotation, leaving no tight end with enough targets to be worth drafting. Jordan also went one round later in the draft than expected, further dampening his potential.

Jordan is worth a late-round dynasty pick, but if he doesn’t pan out in the next two to three seasons, he’s unlikely to ever get a starting job with Houston.

43. TE Hunter Long, Miami Dolphins

Overview
School Boston College
Position Tight End
Class Junior
Age 23
Player comp Albert Okwuegbunam
Positional rank TE4
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-5 73rd
Weight 253 56th
Arm N/A N/A
Hand N/A N/A
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.63 81st
Shuttle 4.42 40th
Vertical jump 33 40th
Broad jump 122 87th
Three-cone 7.41 15th
Bench press N/A N/A
Fantasy Outlook

Long has several things he’s good at but not many he’s great at. He was incredibly efficient his first two seasons and then was given a much larger role in the offense his junior year. His stats per play weren't as good but his production was still impressive.

He made 11 contested catches last season, making him among the best tight ends in that area. He had good size and speed and route running for a college tight end, and the combination of all of those things helped him grade well, but he will just be average at all of those things in the NFL.

Long should be drafted in the fourth round of the NFL draft and as such should be avoided in redraft leagues this year. He's a high-floor, low-upside prospect. His value is a bit higher in TE-premium formats, because he’s a lot more likely to be a top-24 tight end than a top-12 player.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % Inline snap percentage aDOT
2020 83.3 57 685 23% 1.74 3.1 21.2% 71.7% 10.1
2019 68.6 28 507 15% 3.15 10.8 14.6% 83.7% 8.3
2018 80.4 4 103 4% 3.22 13.5 5.3% 92.5% 12.2
Career 83.8 89 1,295 16% 2.21 6.0 17.3% 78.0% 9.6
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
19% 22% 20

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The Dolphins' tight end room wasn't exactly sparse before Long landed with the team in the third round, as Miami already had one of the best receiving tight ends in the league in Mike Gesicki to team up with run-blocking specialists Adam Shaheen and Durham Smythe. All three players ended up playing over 100 pass-blocking snaps, over 100 run-blocking snaps and over 350 total offensive snaps in 2020.

At best, Long will carve out a part-time role in 2021, stealing playing time from one of these three players. However, his prospects will dramatically improve in 2022, as there is no guarantee any of the veterans will remain on the roster — two of the three will be free agents, and Shaheen could easily be cut at that point. Still, even if Long can take over for Gesicki as the lead receiving tight end, he will need to compete against some talented wide receivers for targets.

The situation might not be great, but he should get drafted at this stage for his talent alone.

44. QB Davis Mills, Houston Texans

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

In a surprising turn of events, the Houston Texans selected quarterback Davis Mills with their first pick of the 2021 NFL Draft.

When it comes to garnering playing time, the Stanford product should be favored among the second tier of rookie quarterbacks, a situation that could work in his favor. The problem with that is that he will be thrown directly into the dumpster fire that will inevitably be the 2021 Texans offense.

I’m inclined to weigh the latter more heavily in dynasty, because if the Texans end up finishing as one of the league’s worst teams — which is hardly a hot take — they will likely draft a QB with a top-five pick in 2022 and Mills’ fantasy value will crumble. 

Mills doesn’t possess dual-threat or any abnormal off-script playmaking ability, which is going to put him in a position to fail as a rookie

45. TE Tommy Tremble, Carolina Panthers

Overview
School Notre Dame
Position Tight End
Class Junior
Age 20.9
Player comp 1990s fullback
Positional rank TE7
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-3 27th
Weight 241 12th
Arm 31.9 14th
Hand 9.3 19th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.6 86th
Shuttle N/A N/A
Vertical jump 37 85th
Broad jump 10’2” 87th
Three-cone N/A N/A
Bench press 20 53rd
Fantasy Outlook 

Tremble projects as more of a fullback at the next level, although perhaps his intriguing size/speed combination could entice someone to build him into more of an H-back. A block-first role is far more likely, and warranted, for Tremble. Notre Dame fed a freshman tight end 31 more targets than Tremble in 2020, and he didn’t exactly prove worthy of additional usage with five drops on 40 career catchable targets.

Rookie tight ends almost never put up fantasy-viable production. We aren’t even sure 1) how Tremble will be featured at the next level, and 2) whether or not he’s polished enough as a route-runner and catcher to earn an actual pass-game role. Hopefully Tremble emerges as a badass run blocker who paves the way for some fantasy-friendly RBs; just don’t expect him to be the recipient of more than the occasional target or two on a weekly basis.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot Snap % Inline snap percentage aDOT
2020 77.9 19 218 9.5% 1.25 3.3 42% 53% 8.8
2019 70.9 16 183 6.1% 1.23 4.9 38.3% 44.9% 7.5
Career 78.7 35 401 7.6% 1.24 4.1 40.3% 49.3% 8.2

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

On the one hand, Tremble's third-round price tag is an excellent sign that the team views him as more than a block-first player at the NFL level. On the other hand, both Dan Arnold and Ian Thomas project as significantly better receivers at this point.

I’ve seen worse fourth- to fifth-round dynasty selections than Tremble, particularly in TE-premium formats, but there’s still a decent chance he winds up as a better real-life player than fantasy asset, fantastic athletic testing be damned.

Tremble put up fantastic testing numbers and was drafted into a sharp offensive scheme, so there are worse rookies to take a shot on in 2021. Still, the path to anything resembling a fantasy-viable role seems at least 12 months away.

46. WR Dazz Newsome, Chicago Bears

Overview
School North Carolina
Position Wide Receiver
Class Senior
Age 21.9
Player comp Faster Davone Bess
Positional rank WR26
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-foot-10 16th
Weight 190 25th
Arm 29.9 7th
Hand 9 27th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.59 16th
Shuttle 4.38 20th
Vertical jump 34 30th
Broad jump 10’1” 46th
Three-cone 7.38 3rd
Bench press 12 32nd
Fantasy Outlook 

We haven’t seen Dazz Newsome operate much out of the slot, but that didn’t stop him from racking up 18 deep catches over the past two seasons. Newsome demonstrated a fantasy-friendly blend of contested-catch (11-for-16) and tackle-breaking (14-plus broken tackles in three straight years) ability that helped him dominate at times for the Tar Heels.

Here’s the problem: hands. Newsome dropped 20 of 208 career catchable targets while also popping off the film as a serial body catcher. Good things generally happen once the ball is safely in Newsome’s hands; the journey just tends to be a bit of an emotional roller coaster. Newsome is certainly capable of improving this part of his game, although it’s going to be tough to expect any sort of Year-1 production on a team that already has a high-end slot.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 73.2 54 684 19.4% 1.86 6.6 98.5% 9 17.3%
2019 83.5 72 1,018 23.8% 2.74 5.7 99.7% 10.8 24.4%
2018 69.6 44 506 15.9% 1.92 7.8 97.8% 7.9 15.1%
2017 73.3 18 227 10.6% 2.25 8.1 86.8% 8.4 9.6%
Career 85 188 2,435 18% 2.2 6.7 97.7% 6.7 17.6%

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Of all the first-year receivers drafted outside of the top three rounds, Newsome is arguably the No. 2 favorite to start in three-receiver sets in 2021. The only later-round receiver ahead of him at this point is Amon-Ra St. Brown.

The Bears have Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney cemented in three-WR sets, but Anthony Miller is rumored to be on the way out after continuously struggling to win over the Chicago Bears coaching staff.

We only have to go back to 2020 to find the last example of the Bears letting a late-round rookie wideout quickly rise up the depth chart. It’s not a given Newsome will be able to beat out the likes of Damiere ByrdRiley Ridley or Javon Wims; just realize this offense was one of the better landing spots for any potential slot receiver.

47. RB/WR Demetric Felton, Cleveland Browns

Overview
School UCLA
Position Running Back
Class Redshirt Senior
Age 22
Player Comp Justin Forsett
Positional Rank RB14
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-foot-9 16th
Weight 189 5th
Arm 31.5 72nd
Hand 9.38 66th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.55 46th
Shuttle 4.47 13th
Vertical Jump 32 14th
Broad Jump 9’6” 19th
Three-Cone N/A N/A
Bench Press 10 2nd
Fantasy Outlook

Felton’s pro day is unlikely to bolster his draft position, as he ran a 4.55-second 40-yard dash at 189 pounds and posted mediocre numbers in the vertical and broad jump. It was a disappointing day all around for the UCLA back, who broke out as a redshirt senior in 2020 after waiting in the wings behind Joshua Kelley in 2018 and 2019.

Felton has no issues in terms of peak rushing usage, given that he averaged more than 20 carries per game in 2020. The UCLA product was also responsible for over 30% of his team's total yards and touchdowns. He was a stud forcing missed tackles and generating yards after contact, two measures that point to independent contributions of the running back.

Felton isn’t an outstanding athlete, but he was never going to be a bell-cow, early-down back anyway. He could be utilized more as a receiver in the NFL, an interesting thought given that he played wide receiver in eight of his 12 games in 2018, and he reportedly looked good in Senior Bowl practices doing just that. Felton will test how quickly the league is moving in the direction of receiving backs.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Carries Yards Yards per attempt Yards after contact per attempt Missed tackles forced per attempt Receptions Target share Dominator rating
2020 79.2 132 668 5.1 3.4 0.27 22 15% 30%
2019 72.6 87 331 3.8 3.1 0.24 54 16% 15%
2018 56.6 5 27 5.4 1.2 0.00 20 11% N/A
Career 74.1 234 1,101 4.7 3.3 0.27 98 12% 21%

48. TE Tre' McKitty, Los Angeles Chargers

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

According to PFF’s 2021 NFL Draft Guide, “Tre McKitty was much improved this past season, but he profiles as little more than a reliable No. 2 in the NFL.”

It's encouraging that the Chargers spent a third-round pick on the Georgia product, especially given McKitty's initial sixth-round projection, but he still has a long way to go before sniffing any kind of fantasy relevance.

The increase in draft stock is probably due to his proficiency as a blocker — the exact thing we don’t want our fantasy tight ends to take any part in. 

Jared Cook and Donald Parham Jr. are much better receiving options at the tight end position for the Los Angeles Chargers, so we can leave McKitty on the dynasty waiver wire.

49. WR Frank Darby, Atlanta Falcons

Overview
School Arizona State
Position Wide Receiver
Class Graduate
Age 24
Player comp Sammie Coates
Positional rank WR34
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot 38th
Weight 201 49th
Arm 31.8 45th
Hand 9.4 58th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.56 24th
Shuttle 4.25 49th
Vertical jump 35 36th
Broad jump 9’9” 22nd
Three-cone 7.05 32nd
Bench press 19 86th
Fantasy Outlook 

There’s plenty of good and bad to Frank Darby’s game. His pro day 40-yard dash was surprisingly meh considering Darby landed on Bruce Feldman’s 2021 freak list in part thanks to topping out at 23 miles per hour on GPS. Throw in the fact that Darby has squatted 500 pounds and it’s easy to fall in love with the athlete.

We saw this athleticism parlayed into on-field production at first, as Darby averaged over 20 yards per catch in each of his first three seasons at Arizona State. However, Darby failed to impress during his three games in 2020 as well as at the Senior Bowl; he’s a pure deep threat that hasn’t shown the ability to function as anything resembling a polished overall receiver. Throw in 10 drops on 77 catchable targets, and it’s tough to see Darby topping out as more than a No. 4 WR at best in 2021.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 56.3 6 46 20.3% 0.84 2.3 3.3% 13.3 25.5%
2019 69.7 31 616 15.1% 1.63 4.6 7.4% 18.1 33.9%
2018 58.9 21 421 12.6% 1.46 3.7 6.8% 22.5 30%
Career 67.4 67 1,317 12.8% 1.66 3.6 8% 26.2 27.1%

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The Falcons have been dying for some level of WR depth. The likes of Christian Blake and Olamide Zaccheaus are the next men up if either Julio JonesCalvin Ridley or Russell Gage goes down. In this sense, Darby should have every opportunity to earn a role as a primary backup, although this wouldn’t necessarily lead to a fantasy-friendly workload even if an injury occurs.

This offense has three bona fide No. 1 receivers in Jones, Ridley and No. 4 overall pick Kyle Pitts; expect targets to be condensed around whoever is healthy as opposed to Darby if disaster strikes. He’s nothing more than a late-round dart that I probably won’t be throwing in dynasty land.

50. QB Kellen Mond, Minnesota Vikings

Overview
School Texas A&M
Position Quarterback
Class Senior
Age 21.8
Player comp Kevin Hogan
Positional rank QB7
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-3 43rd
Weight 211 18th
Arm 33.5 91st
Hand 9.4 35th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.59 90th
Shuttle N/A N/A
Vertical jump N/A N/A
Broad jump N/A N/A
Three-cone N/A N/A
Bench press N/A N/A
Fantasy Outlook 

Mond doesn’t have the same sort of size as Trey Lance or Justin Fields, but he’s hardly a slouch at 6-foot-3 and 211 pounds. Throw in a 4.59-second 40-yard dash, and it’s easy to picture Mond taking advantage of NFL defenses that fail to respect his ability on the ground. Overall, the Aggies QB racked up at least 25 rushing yards in 61% of his career games and operated out of a pro-style scheme.

And yet, Mond ran less than ever in 2020 and doesn’t stand out as the sort of QB to actively force the issue with his legs. Perhaps he continues to develop as a passer and carves out a role somewhere at the next level, but he’s not someone we should be actively looking to start in fantasy land due to the expectation of a high rushing floor. There are also enough concerns regarding Mond’s accuracy and ability to make big-time throws to warrant fading him at the next level, at least until there’s some sign of improved anticipation and play-making ability.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade TDs INTs Yards  Yards per attempt Big-time throw rate Passer rating (clean pocket) aDOT Rushing attempts Rushing yards
2020 81.7 19 3 2,282 7.7 3.9% 109.8 9.4 59 334
2019 76.7 20 9 2,897 6.9 2.9% 97.5 9 75 690
2018 78 24 9 3,113 7.3 6.1% 100.3 10.3 98 657
2017 66.3 8 6 1,365 6 4.6% 73.6 10.1 59 471
Career 84.2 71 27 9,657 7 4.4% 97.3 9.7 291 2,152

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The only way the Vikings can free themselves from Kirk Cousins before the end of 2022 is by finding a trade partner to take on his gargantuan salary. Mond played in a pro-style offense at Texas A&M and offers more mobility than Cousins, but it’s a bit of a stretch to think he’ll challenge for playing time over the next two seasons. Cousins is quite a bit better than most give him credit for — Cousins is PFF’s seventh-highest-graded passer over the last three seasons.

Mond would be a potential upside QB2 if forced into action thanks to his demonstrated dual-threat ability, but it seems doubtful that the opportunity comes to fruition without injury before 2023.

51. TE John Bates, Washington Football Team

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The Washington Football Team selected Bates in the fourth round to provide much-needed depth to their tight end room. Bates is a big, explosive athlete — 80th percentile height, 93rd percentile three-cone, 77th percentile broad jump — and figures to slide in as the team’s TE2 behind Logan Thomas

Thomas will be 30 by the time the 2021 season begins, so it’s possible Bates can take over within the next two to three seasons. He is well-rounded enough to earn snaps alongside Thomas when the team deploys two-TE sets.

52. QB Kyle Trask, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Overview
School Florida
Position Quarterback
Class Redshirt Senior
Age 23.1
Player comp Ryan Mallet with less arm strength
Positional rank QB6
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-5 91st
Weight 236 92nd
Arm 33 82nd
Hand 10.1 88th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 5.1 4th
Shuttle 4.6 4th
Vertical jump 32 49th
Broad jump 9’5” 58th
Three-cone 7.08 58th
Bench press N/A N/A
Fantasy Outlook

Kyle Trask put up some serious numbers in 2020 and improved across the board as a pure passer. The year-to-year improvement is particularly enticing when you consider if another leap could be on the horizon after acclimating to an NFL system. Of course, it’s unlikely we see Trask make a habit of overcoming a bad situation. He possesses next to zero off-script ability once the play breaks down and benefited mightily from chucking the rock to Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney.

Ultimately, Trask isn’t the sort of rookie QB we should be attacking in fantasy land. Not only did we fail to see any sort of mobility when the play broke down, but his pro-day numbers backed up the general lack of speed at hand. Throw in the reality that Trask doesn’t exactly find himself in the same tier as the class’ top QBs in terms of arm talent, and it’ll take one helluva landing spot for him to emerge as anything resembling a fantasy-friendly signal-caller in 2021.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade TDs INTs Yards Yards per attempt Big-time throw rate Passer rating (clean pocket) aDOT Rushing attempts Rushing yards
2020 92.2 43 8 4,278 9.8 8.9% 132.4 10.1 35 172
2019 69.9 25 7 2,941 8.3 2.4% 118.4 8.6 33 170
Career 91.3 69 15 7,381 9.1 5.8% 126.1 9.5 73 335
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Tom Brady has been adamant about wanting to play until he’s 45, which won’t occur until Aug. 2022. And we still don't know whether Trask will even be able to beat out Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Griffin for backup duties in 2021. Bruce Arians has rightfully earned the reputation as a QB whisperer over the years, but know that it’s typically taken a season or two of more bad than good from his non-G.O.A.T. starters before the passing game has realized true high-end success.

Trask’s utter lack of a rushing floor likely renders him a better real-life player than fantasy asset, even once a starting job (potentially) emerges down the road. Learning from TB12 and Arians is undoubtedly a nice setup for Trask’s development, but 2022 is likely the absolute earliest he’ll see any sort of meaningful regular-season snaps.

Whether Arians decides to remain with the Buccaneers after Brady leaves town also remains to be seen. I’m not inclined to chase Trask in dynasty on a team that is all-in for the moment, not the future.

53. WR DEZ FITZPATRICK, Tennessee Titans

Overview
School Louisville
Position Wide Receiver
Class Senior
Age 23
Player comp Tre’Quan Smith
Positional rank WR34
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-2 62nd
Weight 208 64th
Arm N/A N/A
Hand N/A N/A
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.43 74th
Shuttle 4.26 44th
Vertical jump 35 41st
Broad jump N/A N/A
Three-cone 7.09 25th
Bench press N/A N/A
Fantasy Outlook

Fitzpatrick has a good combination of size and speed with experience playing both in the slot and out wide. His physical gifts didn’t necessarily translate to production on the field.

He was an above-average college receiver in a Power 5 conference by his senior season, but that might not be enough to get him drafted considering the overall profile and measurables.

Still, Fitzpatrick showed improvement and could be worth a flier. His yards per route run increased substantially each year, while his overall grade and target and air yards share — and most other common statistics — also improved throughout his time at Louisville.

He could feasibly improve on a practice squad and eventually work his way up an NFL depth chart.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 74.7 43 831 23% 2.49 8.8 5.9% 14.1 36%
2019 68.3 35 628 22% 1.98 4.7 9.0% 14.2 30%
2018 65.2 31 422 15% 1.54 5.6 65.1% 12.6 20%
Career 73.5 109 1,881 18% 2.03 6.6 21.8% 13.7 26%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
22% 25% 20
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Many mock drafts had the Tennessee Titans picking a wide receiver in the first round, but the team went in another direction and didn’t add one until Round 4. Fitzpatrick has a chance to work into the Titans' wide receiver rotation immediately.

Tennessee let Corey Davis, Adam Humphries and Kalif Raymond go this offseason, and Josh Reynolds was the only replacement before the draft. Fitzpatrick will have a bigger impact in his first season compared to several players picked ahead of him in dynasty drafts.

Still, the ceiling remains low. Fitzpatrick was considered a reach in the fourth round, and the Titans have two star players who will dominate touches for the foreseeable future. Fitzpatrick will be a role player in a wide receiver rotation at best in 2021.

54. LARRY ROUNTREE III, Los Angeles Chargers

Overview
School Missouri
Position Running Back
Class Senior
Age 23.2
Player Comp Rex Burkhead
Positional Rank RB17
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-foot-10 46th
Weight 211 43rd
Arm 30.75 43rd
Hand 9.13 44th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.70 7th
Shuttle 4.47 13th
Vertical Jump 30 7th
Broad Jump 9’0” 3rd
Three-Cone 6.96 66th
Bench Press 18 42nd
Fantasy Outlook

Rountree’s pro day threw into question whether he has NFL-level athleticism. He ran a 4.7-second 40-yard dash while weighing in at a not-too-hefty 211 pounds. His explosion drills were also disappointing, hitting an even 9-foot in the broad jump and 30 inches for the vertical. His three-come time was relatively good at 6.96 seconds.

It’s fair to call Rountree a lacking athlete, though it is not disqualifying. Athleticism matters for running backs, though some of his similarly lacking prospects have shown success in the NFL.

Rountree operated as a workhorse in the Missouri offense, averaging more than 20 rush attempts per game and also contributing a little in the passing game. Despite his smallish frame, he was a force around the goal line, scoring more than 40 touchdowns during his college career and more than half of Missouri’s total touchdowns (excluding QB rushes) in 2020.

Rountree accumulated good traditional stats in 2020 but didn’t impress according to advanced metrics. Last season his rushing and receiving grades were between the 40th and 50th percentiles. He was able to force missed tackles at a slightly above-average rate, but he didn’t do much after contact. That red flag fits with a back who didn’t show a ton of athleticism on his pro day.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Carries Yards Yards per attempt Yards after contact per attempt Missed tackles forced per attempt Receptions Target share Dominator rating
2020 76.8 211 989 4.7 2.4 0.19 15 6% 42%
2019 69.4 187 838 4.5 2.9 0.19 13 6% 24%
2018 81.8 225 1,216 5.4 3.4 0.18 14 5% 20%
Career 84.1 749 3,746 5.0 2.9 0.18 47 5% 22%

55. QB IAN BOOK, New Orleans Saints

Overview
School Notre Dame
Position Quarterback
Class Graduate
Age 23
Player comp Tajh Boyd
Positional rank QB9
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot 7th
Weight 211 18th
Arm 31.1 24th
Hand 9.9 75th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.65 81st
Shuttle 4.19 80th
Vertical jump 33 62nd
Broad jump 9’7” 68th
Three-cone 6.99 73rd
Bench press N/A N/A
Fantasy Outlook 

Ian Book possesses (wait for it) sneaky athleticism and showed more good than bad during his three years as the full-time starter at Notre Dame. We saw some fantasy-friendly rushing ability: Book averaged 33.7 rushing yards per game across his four seasons with the Fighting Irish, finding his way to the end zone on 17 separate occasions as a rusher. Unfortunately, the general lack of arm strength at hand could be a real problem at the NFL level, particularly if Book doesn’t do a better job working off his initial read.

Book’s willingness to take off and run could be useful in fantasy land if a spot start emerges down the line; it’s just tough to see that sort of scenario playing out in 2021. Book consistently struggled against high-end competition, posting middling stat lines against the likes of LSU (164 yards-2 TD-1 INT), Clemson (160-0-1, 310-1-0, 219-0-0), Michigan (73-1-0) and Alabama (229-0-1). It takes a leap of faith in both the physical and mental side of things in order to project Book as anything more than a backup at the next level.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade TDs INTs Yards  Yards per attempt Big-time throw rate Passer rating (clean pocket) aDOT Rushing attempts Rushing yards
2020 78.5 15 3 2,827 7.9 3.2% 103.5 8.5 46 611
2019 77.9 34 6 3,035 7.5 5.2% 115.6 9 56 619
2018 70.2 19 7 2,623 8.3 3.9% 115.2 8.9 49 353
2017 56.6 4 4 456 6 3.8% 87.9 10 27 223
Career 82.4 72 20 8,941 7.8 4.1% 109.8 8.9 178 1,806

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Sean Payton once said Book reminded him of how he played in high school, and the Saints are obviously in a bit of a transitional phase under center now that Drew Brees has officially hung up his cleats.

Book shouldn’t even be considered the favorite to win the No. 3 job from Trevor Siemian, but this is still as great a landing spot as any young rookie QB could hope for.

We’ll find out this year if the Saints’ constant top-10 scoring offense will also retire with Brees, but at a minimum we’ve seen Payton get the most out of flawed talents such as Taysom Hill and Teddy Bridgewater over the past two seasons. If Book is going to work anywhere, it might as well be with the Saints — just don’t expect a Year 1 role to emerge without at least two injuries on the depth chart. The drop-off is enormous from the first-round QBs to the next group in dynasty land, but Book has a case to go ahead of the third-round signal-callers thanks to his landing spot alone.

56. RB Kene Nwangwu, Minnesota Vikings

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Kene Nwangwu is Mike Boone 2.0, as both RBs are athletic freaks. Nwangwu’s workout numbers were off the charts at his pro day — 99th-percentile 40-yard dash, 87th-percentile broad jump and 94th-percentile three-cone drill — all while measuring in at 6-feet and 212 pounds.

He’s definitely worth stashing in dynasty formats because he’s got a ton of upside if he ever finds a way to get into the starting lineup.

57. MIKE STRACHAN, Indianapolis Colts

Overview
School Charleston
Position Wide Receiver
Class RS – Senior
Age 24
Player comp Vincent Jackson
Positional rank WR40
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-5 98th
Weight 226 95th
Arm 34.25 99th
Hand 10 90th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.46 63rd
Shuttle 4.36 22nd
Vertical jump 35 35th
Broad jump 127 85th
Three-cone 6.96 49th
Bench press 20 90th
Fantasy Outlook

Mike Strachan is easily one of the best small-school wide receiver prospects in the 2021 draft class. In his junior season in 2019, Strachan rewrote the University of Charleston record books. He was named an NCAA Division II Second Team All-American by the American Football Coaches Association and to the 2019 Don Hansen NCAA Division II All-America team.

The 6-foot-5 and 226-pound behemoth finished with 78 receptions for 1,319 yards and 19 touchdowns in his final season with the Golden Eagles. He finished his career with an absurd 52% dominator rating, by far the highest mark of any receiver in his class.

His combination of ideal size, track speed background and humongous catch radius will ensure the Division II standout gets his name called on Day 3. Teams are bound to take a late-round flier on Strachan’s freaky traits.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Yards per reception Yards per game TDs
2020 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2019 N/A 78 1,319 16.9 120.0 19
2018 N/A 48 1,007 21.0 91.6 8
Career N/A 126 2,362 18.7 105.7 27
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
52% 55% 21
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

From a receiver depth chart standpoint, Michael Strachan couldn’t have asked for a better landing spot than the Indianapolis Colts. The cards are stacked against the Division II mega-producer, given his seventh-round pedigree, but he’s got a chance to rise the ranks with T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman Jr., Parris Campbell and Zach Pascal ahead of him on the roster.

Strachan doesn’t play special teams, so if he cracks the 53-man roster, it’s probably indicative of the team being high on his potential as strictly a wideout.

58. JAVIAN HAWKINS, Atlanta Falcons

Overview
School Louisville
Position Running Back
Class Redshirt Senior
Age 21.5
Player Comp Noel Devine
Positional Rank RB11
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-foot-8 10th
Weight 183 2nd
Arm N/A N/A
Hand N/A N/A
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.46 77th
Shuttle 4.23 62nd
Vertical Jump 36 68th
Broad Jump 116 29th
Three-Cone 6.98 62nd
Bench Press N/A N/A
Fantasy Outlook

Louisville’s Javian Hawkins stands out among his peers in running back dominator rating, having posted a solid 25% rating over his career and a 30% rating in his second season as a starter.

Hawkins is a home-run threat and could present fantasy managers with a ton of upside if he is able to beef up his size to withstand NFL defenders. He currently stands at 5-foot-8 and 183 pounds, so it’s going to be difficult to see him running over anybody at the next level. The undersized back relies more on his elusiveness, which has produced the fifth-best forced missed tackle rate in the class since 2019.

His jitterbug archetype will entice teams to manufacture touches for him both on the ground and through the air. He’s proven capable as a pass-catcher — he didn't drop a single pass on 21 career targets — and his explosiveness in space will be a nightmare for teams to defend.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Carries Yards Yards per attempt Yards after contact per attempt Missed tackles forced per attempt Receptions Target share Dominator rating
2020 81.1 131 811 6.2 4.09 0.26 16 8.7% 30%
2019 85.3 263 1,526 5.8 3.53 0.25 4 4.7% 21%
2018 44.9 2 8 4.0 1.50 0 1 4.6% N/A
Career 88.1 396 2,345 5.9 3.71 0.26 21 6.9% 25%
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

After looking like a potential Day 2 selection, Javian Hawkins fell out of the draft entirely. As a UDFA, the undersized back signed with the Atlanta Falcons, and it’s probably one of the better landing spots for his fantasy value.

The depth chart is barren behind Mike Davis, and Falcons RBs coach Desmond Kitchings recently said “the door is wide open” for anyone to take over.

Hawkins’ undrafted status has him off the grid for most fantasy managers, but don’t sleep on this rookie. He’s got talent and reportedly fell in the draft because of off-field issues. The minute he steps onto the field, his fantasy value will rise.

59. JERMAR JEFFERSON, Detroit Lions

Overview
School Oregon State
Position Running Back
Class Junior
Age 21
Player Comp Devontae Booker
Positional Rank RB15
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot  81st
Weight 206 28th
Arm 30 ½ 36th
Hand 9 5/8 83rd
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.55s 46th
Shuttle 4.38 28th
Vertical Jump 31 10th
Broad Jump 115 25th
Three-Cone 7.38 8th
Bench Press 13 8th
Fantasy Outlook

Jefferson blew up as an 18-year-old freshman at Oregon State, posting 1,380 rushing yards, 147 receiving yards, 12 touchdowns and a career-high 80.9 PFF grade. He possesses some of the best vision in this entire draft class, which is why he was able to rack up those impressive numbers while running behind a shoddy run-blocking line. That bodes well for his ability to be an instant impact player on an NFL offense — exactly what fantasy managers are looking for in sleeper running back prospects.

Jefferson has middling athleticism and a low top-end speed but can churn through contact with sneaky size and a strong lower half to break through arm tackles. He was an afterthought in the Oregon State passing attack, and his receiving ability remains a question mark, though he dropped just one of his 44 catchable targets over his career.

Though his production at Oregon State is extremely impressive, Jefferson could struggle in the NFL due to a lack of athletic traits, as all of his workout measurables fell below the 50th percentile among running backs.

 Player Stats
Season Overall grade Carries Yards Yards per attempt Yards after contact per attempt Missed tackles forced per attempt Receptions Target share Dominator rating
2020 79.3 133 858 6.5 3.67 0.20 9 7.8% 29.2%
2019 73.0 143 688 4.8 2.80 0.17 9 7%  21.8%
2018 80.9 239 1,374 5.7 3.05 0.20 25 7.3% 29.3%
Career 85.2 515 2,920 5.7 3.14 0.19 43 7.3%  27%

60. KYLIN HILL, Green Bay Packers

Overview
School Mississippi State
Position Running Back
Class Senior
Age 22.7
Player comp Mike Davis
Positional rank RB12
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-foot-10 37th
Weight 214 52nd
Arm 30.5 36th
Hand 9.75 88th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.51 58th
Shuttle 4.35 34th
Vertical jump 36 68th
Broad jump 10’2” 72nd
Three-cone 7.13 35th
Bench press 22 76th
Fantasy Outlook

Kylin Hill stands out as an explosive dual-threat RB capable of making big things happen in both the run and pass game. His 2020 campaign was limited to just three games, but his 23-234-0 receiving line included just one drop and demonstrated his game's fantasy-friendly nature. This isn’t to suggest Hill can’t function as a physical runner: He forced 116 missed tackles on 453 career carries and possesses a scary-good stiff arm.

Hill's potential issue is whether or not he has the sort of nuance as a rusher to earn the opportunity to be a three-down back. His middling average of 2.47 yards after contact per attempt reflects his tendency to not actively seek out extra contact in order to gain a few extra yards. This can prove even more problematic when Hill fails to allow his blocking to develop.

Like a lot of RBs, Hill seemingly has the tools to put up some serious numbers if gifted a three-down role, but don’t be surprised if that dream fails to come to fruition if he fails to demonstrate the ability to play within the structure of an NFL running scheme.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Carries Yards Yards per attempt Yards after contact per attempt Missed tackles forced per attempt Receptions Target share Dominator rating
2020 69.6 15 58 3.9 2.47 0.08 23 20.6% 16%
2019 83.9 243 1,348 5.5 3.05 0.25 18 8.5% 26%
2018 80.7 117 734 6.3 4.03 0.26 22 10.5% 18%
2017 74.1 78 393 5 3.4 0.28 4 5% 6%
Career 88.7 453 2,533 5.6 3.34 0.26 67 9.8% 16.5%
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The Packers are expected to utilize a one-two punch in their backfield with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Even if they feel the need to expand the committee to three (which is unlikely), we’d have to expect the likes of Dexter Williams and Patrick Taylor to have a leg up on landing the role over Hill.

Like many RBs, Hill seemingly has the tools to put up some serious numbers if gifted a three-down role. However, don’t be surprised if that dream fails to come to fruition behind two RBs the Packers have invested infinitely more resources into.

61. JARET PATTERSON, Washington Football Team

Overview
School Buffalo
Position Running Back
Class Junior
Age 21.2
Player Comp Dion Lewis
Positional Rank RB13
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-foot-7 2nd
Weight 195 10th
Arm 28.75 2nd
Hand 9.25 56th
 Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.58 33rd
Shuttle 4.35 34th
Vertical Jump 30 7th
Broad Jump 9’9” 35th
Three-Cone 7.03 54th
Bench Press 19 51st
Fantasy Outlook

Patterson was an ultra-productive back in college, with Buffalo’s offense revolving around the diminutive phenom. The one glaring hole in his production resume is receiving. He averaged less than a reception per game in his best season and had zero catches in six games last year.

Patterson nails most of our advanced stats, hitting the 98th percentile or better in rushing grade, forced missed tackle rate and yards after contact rate. The Buffalo product also had, according to our grading, excellent run blocking to work with in college, which won’t necessarily be the case in the NFL.

Patterson is the RB12 on the PFF NFL draft big board at 187 overall — almost 50 spots worse than his expected draft position based on recent mock drafts. He will be an attractive flier in the later rounds but would become very intriguing if taken earlier, signaling positive scouting assessments and the likelihood of future opportunities to prove his ability. If Patterson can show receiving ability in the NFL, he will be an intriguing fantasy asset with proven ability to handle a larger workload despite his smaller frame.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Carries Yards Yards per attempt Yards after contact per attempt Missed tackles forced per attempt Receptions Target share Dominator rating
2020 89.9 140 1,074 7.7 4.7 0.26 0 0% 43%
2019 88.9 313 1,804 5.8 3.6 0.27 12 7% 40%
2018 71.8 182 1,012 5.6 3.9 0.34 7 7% 20%
Career 91.1 635 3,890 6.1 3.9 0.29 19 5% 33%
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

If any back has a chance to succeed as a UDFA, it’s going to be one with Patterson's kind of production profile. The Buffalo product nails most of our advanced stats, hitting the 98th percentile or better in rushing grade, forced missed tackle rate and yards after contact average.

Rookie breakout Antonio Gibson sits above the 2021 UDFA on the depth chart, but other names like J.D. McKissic and Peyton Barber shouldn’t provide strong resistance. Patterson wasn’t used much in the receiving game in college, but just having that skill will give him additional opportunities to get on the field as a rookie.

62. POOKA WILLIAMS, Cincinnati Bengals

Overview
School Kansas
Position Running back
Class Junior
Age 21.8
Player comp Garrett Wolfe
Positional rank RB16
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-foot-9 14th
Weight 175 1st
Arm 30.7 39th
Hand 9.75 88th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.38 96th
Shuttle 4.26 56th
Vertical jump 32 14th
Broad jump 9’10” 43rd
Three-cone 7.02 55th
Bench press 4 0th
Fantasy Outlook

The 175-pound scatback is a joy to watch in space, as he's made countless defenders look silly over the years while racking up big plays for the Jayhawks. Williams (understandably) didn’t make a habit of trying to squeeze his tiny frame between the tackles, but the man certainly made the most of his freelancing running style thanks to uncanny suddenness (76.5 elusive rating) and more-than-solid receiving ability (one career drop).

Williams put together one helluva collegiate mixtape, even though his production and efficiency declined throughout his career. The size discrepancy is enough of a concern to basically write off his chances of ever obtaining a true early-down role, though there’s always the potential for the right offensive coordinator to craft a role tailor-made role for Williams’ explosiveness.

Still, this sort of player generally lends himself to being used as more of a gadget than anything resembling a fantasy-friendly role. Earning a return job would be a nice first step for Williams in his quest to beat the odds and earn a starting spot somewhere on offense.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Carries Yards Yards per attempt Yards after contact per attempt Missed tackles forced per attempt Receptions Target share Dominator rating
2020 72.9 50 202 4 2.52 0.33 6 14.3% 25%
2019 86.3 202 1,043 5.2 3.08 0.37 27 8.6% 22%
2018 90.1 161 1,145 7.1 4.6 0.31 32 11.8% 32%
Career 91.5 413 2,390 5.8 3.6 0.33 65 10.4% 27%
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Williams has a chance, at least theoretically,  to replace Giovani Bernard as the Bengals’ scatback. This is because Samaje Perine, Trayveon Williams, Chris Evans, and Jacques Patrick are all built more like early-down talents than shifty pass-catchers.

This is Williams to a tee, and it’s easy to see the pint-sized playmaker doing solid things as Joe Burrow’s primary passing-down back. The two key problems are 1.) The Bengals have already said they don’t plan on taking Joe Mixon off the field, and 2.) Williams is hardly a guarantee to even make the team after going undrafted. It’s unwise to expect much from any undrafted free agent, but Williams might have a better shot than most thanks to his relatively unique skill set.

63. KYLEN GRANSON, Indianapolis Colts

Overview
School SMU
Position Tight End
Class Redshirt Senior
Age 23
Player comp Hunter Bryant
Positional rank TE6
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-1 4th
Weight 241 12th
Arm 32.63 37th
Hand 9.38 24th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.61 84th
Shuttle 4.35 58th
Vertical jump 37 85th
Broad jump 120 77th
Three-cone 7.05 72nd
Bench press 16 20th
Fantasy Outlook

Kylen Granson started his college career at Rice in 2016 and posted a 17% dominator rating, hitting the early-age breakout thrGranshold at just 18.5 years old. In his eight games, Granson led the team in target share (18.6%) and receptions (33).

His target share remained steady in 2017 (20.1%) at Rice but the overall production faltered. After a disappointing sophomore campaign, Granson opted to transfer to SMU and play for the Mustangs at the start of the 2019 season. He became an immediate contributor to his new offense, ranking fifth in receiving yards (721), second in receiving touchdowns (nine), second in targets of 20-plus yards and fourth in routes run (414) at the tight end position.

That production resulted in a 22% dominator rating. His high-end involvement continued into 2020 when he finished second on the team with 536 receiving yards — eighth at the position in the country.

In his two seasons at SMU, Granson almost exclusively played in the slot because he didn’t have the physical strength to be an inline blocker. His overall status as a “tweener” and lack of run-blocking skills will almost certainly relegate him to Day 3 status, but the receiving ability makes him worth a late-round flier in rookie drafts.

He can win vertically and create yards after the catch, which could certainly translate to fantasy points if he can muster some opportunities at the next level.

Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot Snap % Inline snap percentage aDOT
2020 70.7 35 536 14.9% 1.68 6.1 61% 30% 11.1
2019 66.3 43 721 13.3% 1.74 7.0 63% 18% 13.6
2017 69.8 18 241 20% 1.28 2.5 61% 7% 12.4
Career 67.0 129 1,879 14.7% 1.65 6.0 68% 16.5% 10.7
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
12% 22% 18.5

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The Indianapolis Colts opted not to re-sign free agent Trey Burton and instead decided to draft their future TE3 in the fourth round. A glorified slot receiver, Granson should inherit Burton’s 50%-plus slot snap rate from 2020. Burton also led all Colts tight ends in targets last year (44), making Granson a sneaky candidate to repeat the same feat.

We know Carson Wentz has heavily relied on tight ends in the past, so targets should be there for Granson.

From a dynasty perspective, Mo Alie-Cox is slated to hit free agency in 2022, which increases the chance of Granson becoming the team’s undisputed TE1 next season with only a 32-year-old Jack Doyle standing in his way. Granson needs to be rostered in deep TE-premium formats.

64. CADE JOHNSON, Seattle Seahawks

Overview
School South Dakota St.
Position Wide Receiver
Class Redshirt Senior
Age 22.9
Player comp Stedman Bailey
Positional rank WR14
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot 31st
Weight 184 14th
Arm 29.25 3rd
Hand 9.5 69th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.49 51st
Shuttle N/A N/A
Vertical jump 35 41st
Broad jump 9’6” 9th
Three-cone N/A N/A
Bench press 11 26th
Fantasy Outlook

Johnson didn’t play in 2020, as South Dakota State's schedule was moved to spring. His status as a redshirt senior meant that he couldn't wait for the season to kick off, so he declared for the NFL draft.

While the FCS receiver isn’t a particularly strong athlete, his market-share production and efficiency numbers were elite in both his redshirt sophomore and junior seasons. We could view those numbers through a negative lens after accounting for his older age and the level of competition playing for an FCS school.

Johnson garnered heaps of praise for his performance during the Senior Bowl drills and practices, which are more important for a small-school prospect with question marks on how he’d stack up against higher-end competitors. The South Dakota State product earned the highest PFF grade of any receiver in the one-on-ones at the Senior Bowl.

Johnson’s stock has risen substantially in the past few months and could continue to ascend into the NFL draft. Older small-school prospects have enjoyed success in the NFL — players such as Cooper Kupp, for example — so there is a path to success for the wide receiver from South Dakota State.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2019 85.1 72 1,212 32% 3.91 9.0 79% 11.4 37%
2018 88.3 67 1,332 32% 3.94 10.0 83% 15.2 49%
Career 90.1 163 2,863 20% 3.56 9.3 82% 13.2 25%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
34% 45% 20
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Johnson signed with the Seahawks as a UDFA, so he already has an uphill climb to make the 53-man roster. The Seahawks drafted D’Wayne Eskridge in the second round, but Johnson has an objectively better production history, averaging 3.5 yards per route run over his college career.

Johnson garnered heaps of praise for his performance during the Senior Bowl drills and practices, which was more important for a small-school prospect with question marks on how he’d stack up against higher-end competitors. The South Dakota State product earned the highest PFF grade of any receiver in the one-on-ones at the Senior Bowl.

65. MARQUEZ STEVENSON, Buffalo Bills

Overview
School Houston
Position Wide Receiver
Class Senior
Age 23
Player comp Andy Isabella
Positional rank WR22
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-foot10 15th
Weight 180 9th
Arm 31 25th
Hand 8.63 10th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.45 67th
Shuttle 4.17 68th
Vertical jump 33 18th
Broad jump 122 54th
Three-cone 6.46 100th
Bench press N/A N/A
Fantasy Outlook

Stevenson is here because of his speed. He has reportedly clocked 4.3 in the 40-yard dash, though it didn’t necessarily translate to success in college.

His PFF grades weren’t as high as you would want them to be, particularly against the competition level he faced. He’s also dropped too many passes throughout his college career. And while he has made a few deep catches, he hasn't been nearly as effective downfield as you would like for someone who can run the way he can.

Stevenson will be a late-round draft pick at best in the NFL draft. On the bright side, he could see some touches early on, but they will mainly be manufactured plays designed specifically for him. It could take a few years for him to become draftable in redraft leagues because he needs to learn how to best use his speed to his advantage.  His speed potential also makes him a late-round dynasty target.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 69.9 20 301 14% 2.41 6.5 88.0% 11.6 18%
2019 73.6 52 904 29% 2.90 10.5 93.0% 12.2 37%
2018 76.5 74 1,008 24% 2.60 7.4 82.1% 9.9 22%
Career 79.2 146 2,213 22% 2.69 8.4 87.2% 11.0 24%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
30% 42% 20
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The Buffalo Bills selected Stevenson in the sixth round. It will be difficult for him to make the 53-man roster in the short term, as Buffalo is set at the top four on their depth chart and there is plenty of competition for the fifth spot. Isaiah McKenzie caught 10 passes for 91 yards and two touchdowns in the Bills’ last two games once the playoffs were secure. Jake Kumerow and 2020 sixth-round pick Isaiah Hodgins are also fighting for the fifth and sixth roster spots.

Two of the top four wide receivers are 32 and 34 years of age, respectively, so there will be more openings for Buffalo wide receivers in the future. Stevenson might be left on the practice squad this season, but he could be a top-four receiver on the depth chart in a season or two.

66. SHI SMITH, Carolina Panthers

Overview
School South Carolina
Position Wide Receiver
Class Senior
Age 22.4
Player comp Sammie Stroughter
Positional rank WR21
Measurables
Percentile
Height 5-foot-9 9th
Weight 186 18th
Arm 31.88 47th
Hand 9.50 69th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.43 73rd
Shuttle 4.20 60th
Vertical jump 36 56th
Broad jump 10’3” 62nd
Three-cone 6.83 71st
Bench press N/A N/A
Fantasy Outlook

Smith was a four-year contributor at South Carolina, jumping in his senior year to the focal point of the passing offense while accounting for nearly 40% of his team’s receiving yards and more than half of the receiving touchdowns.

There are a couple of opposing forces distorting Smith’s numbers for comparison. His career numbers are somewhat understated as someone who played significant snaps as a true freshman and competed against older competition. His best-season shares are overstated in comparison to his raw totals last year. South Carolina’s passing offense was anemic in 2020, averaging fewer than 190 yards passing and one touchdown per game.

Smith ran a 4.43-second 40-yard dash at his pro day while weighing in at 186 pounds. He had above-average performance in the vertical, broad and three-cone drill. Smith’s aDOT fell dramatically in his final season, but he appears to have the athleticism to be successful further down the field in the NFL.

He could be an attractive option for teams who missed or passed on more coveted slot receivers like Rondale and Elijah Moore. The South Carolina product has a proven track record over four seasons and is someone who Daniel Jeremiah thinks will be a Day 1 starter as a slot receiver in the NFL.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 78.0 57 633 31% 2.59 6.2 71 7.5 31%
2019 62.1 43 489 20% 1.52 5.7 91 11.3 31%
2018 69.5 45 673 15% 1.83 6.5 92 11.5 20%
Career 73.6 174 2,204 18% 1.85 6.1 89 10.1 22%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
22% 47% 21
Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Smith had some hope as a strong producer and potential Day 2 pick, but then he fell to the sixth round. He was a four-year contributor at South Carolina, becoming the focal point of the passing offense while accounting for nearly 40% of his team’s receiving yards and more than half of the receiving touchdowns in his senior year.

The Panthers have locked-in top-two receivers in D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson, plus they added Terrace Marshall Jr. in the second round. Smith could play some in the slot and on special teams, but a breakout would be at least a season away.

67. AUSTIN WATKINS, San Francisco 49ers

Overview
School University of Alabama at Birmingham
Position Wide Receiver
Class Redshirt Senior
Age 24
Player comp Travis Fulgham
Positional rank WR33
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-1 59th
Weight 209 67th
Arm 31.8 45th
Hand 9.6 75th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.5 48th
Shuttle 4.39 19th
Vertical jump 32 8th
Broad jump 9’8” 17th
Three-cone 7.35 3rd
Bench press 18 82nd
Fantasy Outlook 

Austin Watkins spent the first two seasons of his collegiate career at junior college before catching on with UAB. His 57-1092-6 receiving line in 2019 demonstrated elite downfield ability, while last season’s reduced 35-477-3 campaign was more of a result of a scheme change than drop off in performance. Watkins is a sure-handed receiver (one drop on 100 catchable targets) who offers more pro-ready route-running ability than you’d expect from a smaller-school prospect.

There will inevitably be some concern from NFL evaluators when it comes to Watkins’ poor athletic testing. The added reality that Watkins didn’t face off against the strongest college competition complicates things, but there were enough on-field flashes for him to earn a chance somewhere. It’s rare to see players with Watkins’ size already possess the ability to run a full route tree; it’s just unclear whether or not he’s at an NFL-caliber level when it comes to his ability to pop off the line against world-class athletes. Look for Watkins to be a better real-life player than fantasy asset in 2021.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 75.7 35 477 27% 2.41 3 12.2% 15.7 42.7%
2019 87.1 57 1,092 27.9% 3.1 5 3.6% 19.6 42.4%
2018 65.5 7 82 7.8% 1.22 2 2.9% 11.6 8.1%
Career 87.6 99 1,651 21.8% 2.68 4.1 6.3% 17.8 34%

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

It’s worth paying attention to any undrafted free agent prioritized by Kyle Shanahan, although Watkins’ path to the top of the 49ers’ depth chart will undoubtedly be tough sledding. He’s a breath of fresh air considering the 49ers’ penchant for adding WRs who have yet to master a full route tree. Watkins’ nuanced route-running ability was likely the selling point, although his middling athletic testing is probably why the 49ers didn’t need to use a draft pick to acquire his services.

The 49ers’ WR room isn’t exactly overflowing with proven talents behind Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, but it’s still unlikely Watkins manages to 1.) make the team, and 2.) have any sort of a role worth chasing in fantasy land.

68. RB Gary Brightwell, New York Giants

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The New York Giants drafted Brightwell in the sixth round to further bolster a running back room devastated by injuries a season ago. Brightwell is a violent, hard-nosed runner, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that he caught Dave Gettlemen’s eye as a late-round target.

Unfortunately, his lack of receiving ability and pass-protection prowess will relegate him to early-down grinder duties, which don’t provide much upside for fantasy. He’s probably only worth rostering in dynasty formats as additional insurance for Saquon Barkley.

69. TAMORRION TERRY, Seattle Seahawks

Overview
School Florida State
Position Wide Receiver
Class Redshirt Junior
Age 23.1
Player comp Marquess Wilson
Positional rank WR25
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-3 80th
Weight 207 62nd
Arm 33.4 89th
Hand 9.5 69th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.44 70th
Shuttle 4.53 4th
Vertical jump 33 14th
Broad jump 10’6” 82nd
Three-cone 7 41st
Bench press 15 60th
Fantasy Outlook 

The lanky Seminoles prospect possesses borderline erotic top-end speed for a player his size. Throw in a catch radius that enables plenty of highlight-reel snags, and it’s clear Tamorrion Terry has the physical skills to make it in the NFL. The problem is whether or not Terry can develop the sort of route-running skills and play strength to prove that his down 2020 season was nothing more than a fluke.

Terry had the look of a breakout prospect after largely balling out in 2018 and 2019 alike. Perhaps an organization believes it can get the better version out of him moving forward, but the sort of issues he demonstrated in 2020 reflected some of the concerns that teams typically have with taller receivers. The lack of overall agility could ultimately be Terry’s kryptonite; he’s unlikely to garner anything resembling a fantasy-friendly role in 2021.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 65.4 23 289 26% 1.78 4 6.5% 13.3 42.6%
2019 73.9 60 1,187 23.8% 2.67 10.4 9.5% 13.5 39.3%
2018 65.4 35 744 14.8% 1.65 5.2 13.5% 18.6 27.6%
Career 72 118 2,200 20.1% 2.1 7.6 10.7% 15.1 34%

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

There isn’t room for Terry in three-receiver sets in Seattle, as D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and D’Wayne Eskridge project to win those jobs. Still, Terry has a good shot at nabbing the No. 4 or No. 5 WR job, as the Seahawks don’t boast much in the way of proven backups at the position after David Moore took his talents to Carolina and Josh Gordon earned another suspension.

Terry’s path to targets in this expected run-first offense is rough. The good news is that winning a roster spot is seemingly within reach.

70. TE Luke Farrell, Jacksonville Jaguars

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Farrell is strictly a blocking tight end and thus serves almost no purpose in fantasy football. He caught just 34 balls on 54 targets (3% target share) in four years at Ohio State. He was the 11th-highest-graded run-blocking tight end in the FBS last season.

71. WR Racey McMath, Tennessee Titans

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

McMath’s entire career stat line at LSU is as follows: 33 catches for 522 yards and four touchdowns. He’s a special teamer and backup NFL wide receiver at best.

72. WR Jalen Camp, Jacksonville Jaguars

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The Jacksonville Jaguars drafted Camp in the sixth round (No. 210 overall), but the selection was hardly related to his college production profile. He didn’t amass more than 200 receiving yards until this past season, and his career 64.0 PFF receiving grade leaves a lot to be desired.

Jags GM Trent Baalke was betting on Camp’s traits when he decided to pull the trigger on the wideout from Georgia Tech. His measurables are beyond impressive — 100th-percentile bench press (broke NFL combine record), 90th-percentile vertical jump, 95th-percentile weight and 74th-percentile 40-yard dash time.

The Jags have the third-highest percentage of targets vacated from last season, so Camp is an intriguing player to keep tabs on as the only WR drafted by the new coaching regime.

73. QB Sam Ehlinger, Indianapolis Colts

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Ehlinger isn’t going to steal Carson Wentz’s starting job anytime soon, but he sure is going to be fun to roster in preseason DFS due to his impact as a runner. He rushed for nearly 2,500 yards at Texas, with more than half of his yardage coming after contact (1,352).

The sixth-round pick will fight for every yard when he calls his own number, which he did plenty of in college. He scored 33 rushing touchdowns, 18 of which came on goal-line carries.

74. RB Jake Funk, Los Angeles Rams

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The Rams selected Funk in the seventh round to wrap up their 2021 NFL Draft. L.A. needed to add another RB after seeing Malcolm Brown leave in free agency. Instead of opting for another “plodder,” they selected the speedy runner from Maryland who owns college football’s second-highest yards per carry average (8.8) since 2019 and third-highest breakaway rate (66%) last season.

We saw the Rams get devastated by injuries at the RB position in 2020, so Funk is worth a dynasty roster spot for any manager heavily invested in Cam Akers. He has a decent shot at earning the RB3 spot on the roster.

75. WR Jonathan Adams Jr., Detroit Lions

Overview
School Arkansas St.
Position Wide Receiver
Class Senior
Age 22.3
Player comp Robert Davis
Positional rank WR32
Measurables
Percentile
Height 6-foot-2 71st
Weight 210 70th
Arm 32.13 56th
Hand 9.38 58th
Workout Metrics
Percentile
40-yard dash 4.59 16th
Shuttle 4.38 20th
Vertical jump 39 87th
Broad jump 11’0” 96th
Three-cone 7.04 34th
Bench press N/A N/A
Fantasy Outlook

Adams had a huge final season after a steady progression of production at Arkansas State. Unfortunately, he doesn’t project to have much draft capital entering the NFL, and most receivers forecasted to go after pick 200 have limited success.

Adams profiles as a useful player if his deep usage can translate. Adams was a contested-catch monster in college, totaling 12 touchdowns on those grabs since 2019; no other receiver had more than seven.

There are concerns that Adams’ play speed won’t match his timed speed in the NFL. He is tall, primarily played outside and was a deep threat, three qualities that could lead to an unexpected selection on Day 2. That type of rise would radically alter his potential NFL trajectory.

Player Stats
Season Overall grade Receptions Yards Target share Yards per route run YAC per reception Slot snap % aDOT Air yards share
2020 85.8 78 1,106 28% 2.70 3.3 9% 15.3 35%
2019 66.6 62 851 22% 1.67 4.1 7% 14.2 28%
2018 61.1 17 267 9% 1.48 4.8 6% 15.3 19%
Career 77.6 165 2,301 18% 2.00 3.8 7% 14.6 26%
Career dominator rating Highest single-season dominator rating Breakout age
20% 34% 22

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Adams had a monster final season in college, capping off a college career full of steady progress and production. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have any draft capital behind him entering the NFL, and most UDFA receivers have limited success.

The Lions need receivers and only took one in the draft. Adams has a better shot at success than most UDFA due to the opportunity in Detroit but needs to establish some playing time this season to avoid more wide receiver picks jumping over him next offseason.

76. WR Sage Surratt, Detroit Lions

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

No team has more vacated targets than the Lions when accounting for offseason roster turnover, making this a quality landing spot for Surratt in fantasy land. Of course, nothing is guaranteed for undrafted rookies, and he’s fully expected to work behind the likes of Breshad Perriman, Tyrell Williams, Kalif Raymond, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Quintez Cephus.

Surratt will have to beat out veterans and rookies alike in order to win a roster spot. These are certainly “easier” receivers to surpass on the depth chart than most undrafted rookies have to deal with, but Surratt has his work cut out for him to produce any sort of fantasy relevance in 2021 and beyond.

77. WR Dax Milne, Washington Football Team

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Washington’s wide receiver room lacked depth behind Terry McLaurin coming into the offseason, but the franchise took several steps to address the need before adding Milne. Curtis Samuel and Adam Humphries were added in free agency, while Dyami Brown was selected in the third round.

Five other players with significant playing time over the last two seasons are also returning to the team. This leaves Milne sitting at 10th on the depth chart at the moment and at long odds for making the roster as a rookie.

78. RB Stevie Scott III, New Orleans Saints

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Stevie Scott didn’t hear his name called during the draft and signed with the New Orleans Saints as a UDFA post-draft. As a bigger back, Scott figures to be in the running for the primary backup spot to Latavius Murray. The veteran is 31 years old, and his contract expires at the end of the 2022 season.

Even if Scott makes the team, he will just end up replacing Dwayne Washington, who has one game of fantasy relevance since 2018. SS3 is still likely a year away from being of any use to fantasy managers.

79. WR Josh Imatorbhebhe, Jacksonville Jaguars

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Josh Imatorbhebe went undrafted, but he’s not all that different from the Jags’ sixth-round WR Jalen Camp. Both were targeted because of their traits, not on-field numbers.

Imatorbhebhe’s impressive pro-day numbers caught the attention of the Jacksonville coaching staff, and he fits well stylistically with the vertical offense we have seen offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell deploy in the past.

The 46.5-inch vertical jump that he posted at Illinois’ pro day is the highest vertical ever recorded by any NFL draft prospect. The previous record was 46 inches at the NFL combine by a safety back in 2005.

80. WR Marlon Williams, Houston Texans

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Houston has one of the strangest wide receiver rooms in recent memory. They acquired five unrestricted free-agent wide receivers to go along with four returning players and also added Nico Collins via the draft, so Williams currently sits at 11th on the depth chart at best.

Brandin Cooks will remain on top of the depth chart, and Collins will make the team. Outside of that, anything is possible with this roster. Williams has a better chance to make the roster than most undrafted free agent wide receivers due to that uncertainty.

81. QB Jamie Newman, Philadelphia Eagles

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Once viewed by NFL talking heads as a potential first-round pick heading into the 2020 college season, Jamie Newman went undrafted this year. He signed with the Philadelphia Eagles but likely won’t be anything but a camp arm or practice squad player. His skill set is more in line with Jalen Hurts than the Eagles' other QB, Joe Flacco, so the team might end up keeping him around.

Other than preseason DFS, Newman doesn’t have much fantasy value.

82. RB Rakeem Boyd, Detroit Lions

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Boyd finds himself competing alongside three fellow rookies to earn the No. 3 RB job in the Lions’ likely pitiful offense. There are harder paths to a roster spot for fellow undrafted free-agent running backs. Still, it seems incredibly unlikely that Boyd finds a way to steal snaps from either D’Andre Swift or Jamaal Williams over the next two seasons.

It seems more likely that seventh-round pick Jermar Jefferson lands this not-so fantasy-friendly role. Don’t feel inclined to chase any backup RB involved in this offense.

83. WR Trevon Grimes, Philadelphia Eagles

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Trevon Grimes offers more raw athletic appeal than proven production, and he should have every chance to put that on display inside of an Eagles offense absolutely starving for WR production. His path to the top, like any undrafted rookie, is rough, but only DeVonta Smith and Jalen Reagor seem truly locked into significant receiving roles.

It remains to be seen if Grimes is capable of knocking off incumbent backups Travis Fulgham, Quez Watkins, John Hightower and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside; it’s at least an achievable task considering you probably don’t even recognize at least half of those names I just listed. Don’t expect Grimes to see more than a handful of targets if he’s lucky enough to make the roster, but perhaps his raw talent can win out in the long run inside of this unproven WR room.

84. TE Kenny Yeboah, New York Jets

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Yeboah was an undrafted free agent signing by the New York Jets. The Jets have one of the league's weakest tight end units, but they also have several players with NFL experience. The top four players from their depth chart last year have all returned, and Tyler Kroft was added in free agency. This will make it difficult for Yeboah to crack the 53-man roster, though he has a chance to be a practice squad player for New York.

85. WR Whop Philyor, Minnesota Vikings

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The Vikings’ top four WRs are seemingly set in stone, with Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Chad Beebe and Olabisi Johnson holding down the fort. Philyor should have a chance to show his stuff on special teams in an effort to make this team as a backup WR, but he’ll have his work cut out for him when it comes to beating out fifth-round rookie Ihmir Smith-Marsette.

Ultimately, Philyor will have a tough time functioning as anything more than a gadget option in the NFL due to his size, and that's if he manages to even land a roster spot to begin with. Pass.

86. WR T.J. Vasher, Dallas Cowboys

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Dallas utilized a rotation of five wide receivers last season, and all five remain on the roster. Simi Fehoko was also added in the fifth round, and the Cowboys added two other receivers as undrafted free agents, so Vasher will make the practice squad in Dallas at best.

87. WR Warren Jackson, Denver Broncos

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Jackson finds himself on one of the league’s tougher WR depth charts to climb. Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler and Tim Patrick are each objectively good football players, while DaeSean Hamilton and sixth-round pick Seth Williams should be favored comfortably to beat out Jackson for roster spots.

Throw in the reality that the Broncos have continued to struggle to find anything resembling adequate QB play in the post-Peyton era, and we have an undrafted WR who should be treated the same in fantasy drafts of all shapes and sizes.

88. RB Gerrid Doaks, Miami Dolphins

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Seventh-round running back Gerrid Doaks has size — 228 pounds, 5-foot-11 — but he should present no threat to Myles Gaskin’s RB1 status in Miami. If anything, his archetype as a bigger back is a better predictor that Malcolm Brown’s one-year contract isn’t likely to be extended anytime soon.

89. TE Noah Gray, Kansas City Chiefs

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

The Chiefs traded up into the fifth round to select tight end Noah Gray, who projects to be much more of a receiving option than a blocker. That’s music to the ears of fantasy managers because we need to be honest with ourselves, folks: Travis Kelce isn’t getting any younger, and Gray could be the next TE waiting in the wings to catch passes from Patrick Mahomes.

Gray’s great at running routes over the middle of the field and finished first in catch rate (97%) among tight ends from the 2020 draft class.

90. WR Tre Nixon, New England Patriots

Post-Draft Fantasy Outlook

Tre Nixon was New England’s final selection in the 2021 NFL Draft, a noteworthy selection because it will be the last pick ever by Patriots administrator Ernie Adams. Nixon only played in four games in 2020 due to injury, but he was UCF’s most targeted receiver in all his healthy games played.

He will look to make some noise on a relatively weak depth chart with zero locked-in starters besides Nelson Agholor. Nixon should be more than up for the challenge after spending two of his last three seasons playing alongside future Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabriel Davis.

 

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