There's no offseason for dynasty fantasy football leagues. So while we anxiously await the start of NFL free agency and the 2021 NFL Draft, there's still plenty of information — and rankings — to sort through.
Offseason trades have provided a head start on the reshuffling for 2021, as we've seen three quarterbacks — all drafted with Top-2 picks — moved in Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz. (You can read some of the fantasy fallout of those trades here and here.)
The following are my top-300 dynasty rankings along with analysis on major risers and fallers by position. The list includes incoming rookies, but don’t consider their spots set in stone until we get further into the pre-draft process.
If you’d like to dive even deeper into the dynasty rankings or see them by position, head over to PFF's fantasy football rankings page.
|24||Patrick Mahomes II||KC||QB|
|34||Allen Robinson II||CHI||WR|
|49||Odell Beckham Jr.||CLE||WR|
|62||D.J. Chark Jr.||JAC||WR|
|77||Ronald Jones II||TB||RB|
|80||Will Fuller V||HOU||WR|
|84||Melvin Gordon III||DEN||RB|
|91||Laviska Shenault Jr.||JAC||WR|
|109||Irv Smith Jr.||MIN||TE|
|110||Henry Ruggs III||LV||WR|
|146||Michael Pittman Jr.||IND||WR|
|167||Marvin Jones Jr.||DET||WR|
|168||Jeff Wilson Jr.||SF||RB|
|183||Todd Gurley II||ATL||RB|
|187||Lynn Bowden Jr.||MIA||RB|
|190||Terrace Marshall Jr.||ROOKIE||WR|
|203||Anthony McFarland Jr.||PIT||RB|
|206||Chris Herndon IV||NYJ||TE|
|209||Duke Johnson Jr.||HOU||RB|
|214||Amon-Ra St. Brown||ROOKIE||WR|
|222||Benny Snell Jr.||PIT||RB|
|259||Donald Parham Jr.||LAC||TE|
|263||Larry Rountree III||ROOKIE||RB|
|281||Mark Ingram II||ROOKIE||RB|
|285||Keelan Cole Sr.||JAC||WR|
It seems only fit that we open with the man of the hour, new Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz. Wentz’s dynasty stock took a major nosedive after an atrocious 2020 season that saw him finish as the No. 20 quarterback overall in fantasy points per game (16.5).
Posting low-end QB2 numbers has been Wentz’s recent standard in fantasy football — that’s pretty much all he has produced as the team’s starting quarterback aside from his miraculous 2017 MVP campaign.
But make no mistake that I was drinking the Wentz Kool-Aid entering 2020, as I had him ranked seventh in my dynasty quarterback rankings. I had really bought into the addition a downfield weapons in Jalen Reagor along with returning talent like DeSean Jackson and Dallas Goedert. But, alas, the injury bug did its worst on the Eagles once again with almost all key offensive players missing time. The offensive line had several injuries as well.
Wentz landing with the Colts is definitely a big boost to his dynasty stock — this is the best-case scenario for him. He’s in a familiar system and gets the chance to play behind PFF’s seventh-highest-graded offensive line from last season.
Those two things alone won’t make Wentz a fantasy superstar because his problems go much further. But after hitting rock bottom last year, he really can’t go anywhere but up.
The replacement at No. 7 in my rankings is Justin Herbert. The Los Angeles Chargers’ rookie quarterback averaged over 22 fantasy points per game on his way to becoming the NFL’s rookie of the year in 2020.
There are some signs for potential regression in Year 2, but that's why I have him at QB7 as opposed to landing in the top-five.
Hurts has the chance to be fantasy football’s next superstar, but I’ll need some reassurance from the coaching staff that he will indeed be the team’s quarterback after a report surfacing that the Eagles could be looking to address the quarterback position with the sixth pick in the 2021 draft.
But, again, that source is not a member of the Eagles’ organization, so we can’t assume that's the plan. I'm still looking to acquire Hurts because of the upside he offers if he does become the full-time starter.
There’s no question that a running back’s shelf life is short in the NFL. But I’d argue that a running back’s fantasy shelf life as an elite or just usable asset is even shorter. Looking back at the running backs who absolutely tanked from 2019 to 2020 in the rankings, there’s a pretty common theme.
This severe drop-off shouldn’t come as much of a surprise considering a running back’s best production almost always comes during the first few seasons of their careers. This should be viewed as a warning sign for those holding the likes of Melvin Gordon III, Kenyan Drake, Raheem Mostert, Leonard Fournette, Chris Carson, David Johnson and James Conner. Their fantasy value could come crashing down as early as the 2021 season. It might be wise to get out now before their value evaporates.
Plus, we have a nice new crop of second-year running backs to help lead our dynasty teams to championships. Antonio Gibson, A.J. Dillon, D’Andre Swift, Cam Akers, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, J.K. Dobbins and James Robinson all reside in the top-25 dynasty running backs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ rookie running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn is currently sitting at RB40, which is actually a few spots up from last year’s rankings. If things play out in his favor in free agency, we could easily see him take over the pass-catching RB role in Tampa.
There isn’t a more debated wide receiver in dynasty fantasy football than Odell Beckham Jr. After melting faces during his days with New York Giants, OBJ hasn’t been the same star player in Cleveland. He has dealt with injuries, but even when healthy he's been much more of “just a guy” than a true difference-maker.
Beckham averaged 14.3 fantasy points per game (24th) and 14.6 expected fantasy points per game (15th) in his six healthy games in 2020. OBJ’s fall-off has caused him to drop in my dynasty rankings from WR11 to WR25, just two slots behind LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase.
But I’ll say that there is some reason for optimism and to consider buying-low on a player like Beckham now that he doesn’t carry a heavy price tag. Many will point to the Cleveland Browns’ overall improvement on offense without Beckham during the second half of 2020 and conclude that the team is better off without him.
But PFF’s Ben Linsey argues that a lot of the Browns' struggles early on were because they were playing difficult defenses. Baltimore, Washington, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh accounted for four of the six teams they opened with in 2020.
All graded out as top-12 defenses by PFF. OBJ averaged 28 fantasy points in the other two games against the poor defenses of the Bengals and Cowboys. Not too shabby for a WR2 in fantasy.
When it comes to wide receiver risers, the two I want to call out are A.J. Brown and Justin Jefferson, who rank No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in my dynasty wide receiver rankings. I understand the argument for ranking players like Davante Adams or Tyreek Hill ahead of those guys, but we need to think longterm.
At just barely 22 years old, Jefferson posted an historic rookie season and produced a yards per route run of 2.66 — a mark we only see from elite wide receivers like Julio Jones, Michael Thomas and Davante Adams.
Brown also ranks among 2020's elite receivers due to his insane efficiency on a yards per route run basis. Next year is shaping up to be his best season to date.
Next season presents an opportunity for Brown to finally see 120-plus targets with Corey Davis likely on the move. When Davis disappeared toward the end of the year, Brown gobbled up all the targets. He commanded a 35% target share in the team’s final five games.
Zach Ertz was the most notable faller at the tight end position, dropping from TE5 all the way to TE15 after looking like a shell of himself last season. But at just 30 years old and likely in a new situation in 2021, he is surely giving off buy-low vibes.
The entire Eagles offense was a mess last season and Ertz was banged up throughout, so I’d be willing to go dumpster diving for his services. No tight end scored fewer points versus expectation (-48.4) than the Eagles’ veteran tight end. His expected fantasy points per game (11.3) ranked seventh at the position.
He’s still probably still a bit too low as TE15, but I can see that quickly moving upon a change of scenery.
Ertz’s eventual departure from Philadelphia will be a huge gain for one of my guys in Dallas Goedert. I was high on Goedert heading into last year, ranking him as my No. 4 tight end in dynasty. I've stuck to my guns here, ranking him No. 5 for 2021.
That’s probably one of the bigger discrepancies you’ll find across all dynasty rankings, but it’s for good reason. Goedert showed massive upside with Ertz out from Weeks 8-12, finishing as fantasy’s No. 2 tight end (12.3 fantasy points per game) behind only Travis Kelce. He averaged nearly 38 routes run per game.