Erickson: 2021 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings

The best part of the dynasty fantasy football offseason is upon us: re-racking the dynasty fantasy football rankings ahead of rookie draft season. There's been plenty of player movement to sort through after NFL free agency and the 2021 NFL Draft reshaped the dynasty landscape. 

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Now it's time to dig into the new-look dynasty rankings ahead of rookie drafts and offseason trading. The following are my top-360 dynasty rankings, along with analysis on major risers and fallers by position. I’ve also included my rookie-only dynasty rankings for those still prepping for rookie drafts. 

As always, PFF's fantasy football rankings page offers an even deeper dive into the dynasty rankings and can be broken down by position. 

2021 Dynasty Top-360 Rankings

QUARTERBACKS

It seems only fitting that we open the rankings discussion with the brand-new crop of rookie quarterbacks: Trey Lance, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields.

The NFL’s future superstars round out my top-12 dynasty quarterbacks, and I don’t think that’s overly aggressive in any way. Maybe it seems surprising to see Lance ranked ahead of Lawrence, but I hardly believe it’s a hot take. 

Lance's landing spot with the 49ers deserves the slight edge. The team is littered with playmakers — Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Raheem Mostert, Trey Sermon — and we saw firsthand what the Kyle Shanahan offense can deliver with a mobile quarterback when Robert Griffin III took fantasy leagues by storm in 2012.

RG3 finished that season first in fantasy points per dropback (0.73), first in rushing yards (822), second in fantasy points per game (22.6) and third in adjusted completion percentage (79.6%).

During his rookie of the year campaign, Griffin compiled over 400 yards on designed runs. Lance rushed for over 1,000 yards on designed runs at North Dakota State. Saddle up, folks, it’s going to be a fun ride. 

Lawrence’s body of work makes him the much safer option in the long-term, but I'm willing to embrace the risk by chasing Lance's elite rushing ceiling. 

Fields slides in as the third rookie QB (12th overall), but it’s razor-close between him and Lawrence. The Ohio State product gets the edge with rushing, but there are a lot of unknowns when it comes to the Bears franchise in 2022 and beyond. Allen Robinson is a free agent at the end of the year, and if Chicago doesn’t win games, we could see them clean house. 

That’s not to say Fields won’t be the starting quarterback in 2022 — Chicago likely won’t have the draft capital to select another quarterback after trading up for Fields. But resetting everything in Year 2 isn’t ideal, even for a quarterback this talented. 

Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins fell in my best-ball rankings and dynasty rankings based on the directions their teams went in the draft. Minnesota selected Cousins' potential successor in Kellen Mond, and Indianapolis invested its high draft picks into defensive players.  

I’d be looking to flip both QBs in 2QB/Superflex leagues based on their value as entrenched starters. Especially Cousins — he is a prime candidate for regression in 2021. 

The Vikings’ QB led the NFL in red-zone TD% (36.5%), and his 6.8% touchdown rate was the highest of his career. He's not likely to duplicate his career-high efforts. 

RUNNING BACKS

Back in February, I had a solid crop of second-year running backs ranked inside the top 25 of my 2021 dynasty rankings. A.J. Dillon and James Robinson have since fallen outside that group. Robinson’s drop to RB34 is completely based on the Jacksonville Jaguars drafting running back Travis Etienne in the first round. 

Selling Robinson now is definitely “selling low,” but who’s to say his value doesn’t keep declining? Urban Meyer has already suggested that he'll work Carlos Hyde in with the tandem of J-Rob and ETN, so it might be wise to cash out with whatever value Robinson still possesses. There are definitely people who still believe in James RB1son. 

I’ve got Etienne ranked well ahead of Robinson at RB18, slightly behind fellow rookie RBs Javonte Wiliams (RB17) and Najee Harris (RB12). 

Robinson wasn’t the only veteran running back hurt in the draft. The fantasy value of older guys like Raheem Mostert, Melvin Gordon III, Leonard Fournette, David Johnson and James Conner is on life support heading into 2021. None should necessarily be a surprise considering a running back’s best production almost always comes during the first few seasons of his career.

Zack Moss was one of the few younger running backs to rise slightly — he appears to be in the driver’s seat to emerge as the RB1 in the Bills backfield. Moss averaged 11.1 fantasy points per game in the eight games he saw double-digit touches last season. 

We want pieces of high-powered offenses, and Moss is by far the cheapest part of the Bills offense we can acquire. Starting running backs are almost impossible to obtain in dynasty, but the ambiguity of the Buffalo backfield has left the “buy window” open. 

just takes one season of Josh Allen not scoring 8-plus rushing TDs for Zack Moss' fantasy value to skyrocket

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) May 6, 2021

WIDE RECEIVERS 

It's been difficult to decide who to rank higher in dynasty between Elijah Moore and Terrace Marshall Jr. But I think Marshall has the higher fantasy ceiling long-term and deserves to be ranked higher. 

Moore might be better in Year 1 with an easier path to opportunity, but Marshall is just one year away from being the clear-cut No. 2 option since Robby Anderson is slated to be a free agent. There’s also a scenario where Sam Darnold plays so poorly that Carolina is forced to find a new quarterback. That would be a massive win for TMJ. 

Michael Pittman Jr. and Mecole Hardman are two non-rookie WRs I moved up in the post-draft dynasty rankings. Pittman should emerge as the Colts’ top pass-catcher in 2021 with an aging T.Y. Hilton and often-injured Parris Campbell his two top competitors for targets. 

Pittman’s rookie season was derailed by a serious calf injury, but we saw him deliver worthwhile fantasy performances later on. In Week 10, he caught seven balls for 101 yards. In the playoffs, he commanded a season-high nine targets and hauled in five for 90 yards. 

I was concerned about Hardman’s stock heading into the draft, labeling him as a “dynasty sell” because of the Chiefs’ interest in wide receivers through free agency. But after only adding Cornell Powell to the squad, Hardman gets a bump. Apparently, the Kansas City Chiefs are expecting big things from their speedy wide receiver in Year 3.

These days, we all expect receivers to break out in Year 1, but Hardman was never going to fit that criteria. He was super raw entering the league — he originally played defensive back at Georgia — so a longer development should have been expected. 

I also don’t believe we can label Hardman as a disappointment through two years — his passer rating generated when targeted (132.2) since entering the league ranks No. 1 among players with at least 100 targets. He'll have a chance to produce as long as he's connected to Patrick Mahomes.

TIGHT ENDS

Mike Gesicki’s contract expires at the end of the year, and the Dolphins drafted Boston College tight end Hunter Long in the third round — he's looking like their TE of the future. Gesicki falls in the dynasty rankings behind Irv Smith Jr. and Evan Engram. 

Logan Thomas is the other big faller in the tight end rankings. Not only did Washington add another pass-catcher in deep threat Dyami Brown, the team added tight end John Bates in the fourth round. Thomas’ stellar 2020 campaign was tied heavily to his volume in the offense, and I just don’t see that workload available in 2021. 

Adam Trautman is soaring up the rankings, as the Saints have a severe lack of target competition behind Michael Thomas. We know tight end production in fantasy is often tied to touchdowns, so the opportunity for Trautman couldn’t be better.

No team has more vacated end-zone targets from last season than the Saints. Recall how the fantasy football community went nuts for Bucs tight end O.J. Howard in 2019 a year after he earned PFF’s second-highest grade (88.9) at the position while connected to QB Jameis Winston. Howard ranked third in yards per route run (2.23), third in fantasy points per snap (0.28) and fifth in fantasy points per touch that year. 

praying Jameis Winston starts for New Orleans so he can turn 2nd-year TE Adam Trautman into 2nd-year 2018 O.J. Howard – PFF’s second-highest graded tight end (88.9) and crusher of my 2019 fantasy teams pic.twitter.com/xSlztahcmv

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) May 6, 2021

2021 Rookie Rankings