- R.J. Harvey should be the receiving back for the Denver Broncos: No team throws to running backs more than one coached by Sean Payton.
- Travis Hunter is the ultimate high-risk, high-reward player: He has the tools to become one of the NFL's best wide receivers, but his playing time could be split on offense and defense in a way that limits his fantasy ceiling.
- PFF+ gives you the Fantasy blueprint: Test strategies with the No. 1 Mock Draft Simulator, use the Live Draft Assistant for pick suggestions and project next-round availability, and unlock industry-leading rankings.
Estimated reading time: 15 minutes
Each season, there is a lot of hype for the rookie class because of the unknown. Those rookies could turn out to be among the best at their position, like Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers and Brock Bowers did last season. They could also turn out to be not worth keeping on your fantasy roster by the end of the season. This article aims to identify five rookies who are more likely to work out than not and still valued at their ADP. Someone like Ashton Jeanty should have an excellent season, but his current ADP is appropriate, while the players in this article remain undervalued.
The average draft position listed is from a consensus between ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo! for where the player is picked on average in a 12-team, redraft league.
Last updated: Monday, August 25
RB RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos (ADP: 6.05)
Harvey worked his way up the depth chart while at UCF. He barely played in 2021 but played very efficiently as a backup in 2022 and further improved his efficiency in a much larger role in 2023 and 2024. He improved despite UCF jumping from the American Athletic Conference (AAC) to the Big 12. His PFF rushing grade against Power-Five opponents was 93.4 over the past three years, which was just ahead of Blake Corum, Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, and just below Cameron Skattebo, Damien Martinez and Bucky Irving.
Harvey’s numbers as a receiver were generally high throughout his collegiate career. His grade notably declined in 2024, but that was mainly due to a fumble and two drops. On a small sample of 22 receptions and 31 targets, one fumble can make a significant difference in grade.
Our draft guide focused mainly on the positives, including great elusiveness that led to avoided tackles in both the run and pass game. When our draft analysts were asked to name their favorite prospect, our lead draft analyst, Trevor Sikkema, listed Harvey. He has a unique size for a running back, measuring at 5-foot-8 and 205 pounds at the combine. Devonta Freeman was the most notable running back of that size to find NFL success, with Darrell Henderson and Michael Carter also showing flashes.
A big reason for optimism around Harvey is that he gets to play in Sean Payton’s offense. Broncos running backs have caught 214 passes over the past two years, which is more than any other team. Back with the New Orleans Saints, Payton had Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas and Alvin Kamara, who were all fantasy-relevant, at times, even in part-time roles. For example, Kamara was selected 67th overall compared to Harvey, who was selected 60th. Kamara was a backup as a rookie and played 44.9% of his team's offensive snaps over the season. Kamara finished fourth in fantasy points per game that season with 120 carries and 81 receptions.
That said, the Broncos’ backfield has been highly volatile in recent seasons. Predicting which back would lead in carries from week to week was nearly impossible, and Payton’s public comments about player roles often didn’t align with usage. Even preseason rotations proved misleading when it came to final depth chart decisions. While the hope is that Harvey and J.K. Dobbins can stabilize the backfield, there’s no guarantee history won’t repeat itself.
While Payton’s preseason usage hasn’t always led to regular-season usage, Harvey played all but one snap with the starters on first and second downs in the first preseason game, while Dobbins was restricted to playing a third-down role. While we expect a little more rotation for the regular season, this at least points to Harvey potentially leading the team in carries while catching a lot of passes.
Harvey was arguably the biggest winner among rookie running backs, landing in a situation where his skill set could translate to fantasy stardom. A top-10 finish is within reach if he secures the passing-down role and averages eight or more carries per game. Still, Denver’s backfield has been notoriously volatile in recent years, and there’s a chance that unpredictability continues even with Harvey in the mix.
WR Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 6.11)
Hunter spent the past two seasons as a full-time wide receiver and cornerback for Colorado. His efficiency at wide receiver was strong but not elite, and he produced on a surprisingly high sample size, given his additional playing time on defense. His numbers improved across the board from 2023 to 2024. His production by situation was strong, too, but it’s worth noting that many of his routes were gos or hitches.
His 89.7 PFF receiving grade over the past two seasons is directly in the middle of the other receivers who were drafted in the first or early second round. He racked up the most touchdowns and the fewest dropped passes of the five, and his separation rate against single coverage is the best among the group.
While Hunter wasn’t as accomplished as a receiver as others in the class, many consider him the best receiving option. PFF's Draft Guide notes, “As a receiver, he doesn’t have as much polish in releases, route nuance and beating press. However, all that can be improved and explained by not devoting all his time to one position.” If Hunter becomes a full-time receiver, he will be the top wide receiver in dynasty drafts based on his talent.
Hunter joins the Jaguars, who have Brian Thomas Jr. and minimal other competition for targets. The first preseason game gave us a great look at how the Jaguars plan on using Hunter.
He started the game for Jacksonville and played in 11 of 12 snaps with the starters. The one play he missed was a two-wide receiver set with Brian Thomas Jr. and Dyami Brown on the field. If this ends up being how he’s used in the regular season on offense, he can be a consistent fantasy starter. Several borderline fantasy starters only played in three-receiver sets last season, including Jayden Reed, Josh Downs, Khalil Shakir and Adam Thielen. The differences are that Hunter is more talented and the Jaguars should stay in 11 personnel for most of the game. Head coach Liam Coen’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranked eighth in 11 personnel usage last season at 71.9%, despite multiple wide receiver injuries. His 2022 Los Angeles Rams led the league at 90.9%. On the first drive, the Jaguars used it 91.8%.
Coen also commented that they have focused on 11 personnel, and that he’s learning 12 personnel, so he could also start playng snaps in 12 personnel in the upcoming weeks.
One surprising part of his usage is that Hunter lined up in the slot on five of his 11 snaps, tying Thomas at five of 12 snaps. Thomas was expected to be the primary slot receiver after leading the league in yards per route run out of the slot. Hunter played significantly out of the slot in 2023, but in 2024, he only lined up in the slot 36 times compared to 736 snaps outside. This is significant because Coen’s top wide receivers, from a fantasy perspective, have primarily played out of the slot. This includes Chris Godwin averaging 19.7 PPR points per game last season, which ranked second-most in the league, and Cooper Kupp leading the league in 2022 at 22.4. This is enough reason to raise expectations for Hunter this season while somewhat dampening expectations for Thomas.
Hunter didn’t play the first drive on defense, but he played left cornerback on the Jaguars’ second and third drives, playing all eight snaps on those drives. Tyson Campbell was one of multiple Jaguars defenders who only played the first drive. Jarrian Jones started the game at left cornerback and switched to right cornerback when Hunter entered. Jourdan Lewis, who joined the Jaguars from the Dallas Cowboys, played as their slot cornerback, even though Jones held that position last season. If Hunter plays on defense in the regular season, it would likely be at Jones' expense. This wouldn’t necessarily need to be in any particular personnel groupings.
The sky is the limit for Hunter, a truly unique athlete. That uniqueness makes it difficult to project how much he can help a fantasy manager at the wide receiver position. As the offseason has progressed, the risks around Hunter have decreased, but his ADP hasn’t increased at a commensurate rate.
WR Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers (ADP: 6.06)
McMillan has spent the past three seasons as a starting receiver for the Arizona Wildcats, dominating his opposition over the last two. He recorded at least 80 receiving yards in 64% of his games during that span.
McMillan improved in most key metrics during his final college season, except dropped passes — he dropped seven of his 131 targets in 2024 after dropping just two passes in 2023. One notable area of growth was his performance on contested catches. He gained more separation in 2024, resulting in fewer contested targets, and he converted a higher percentage of those contested opportunities into receptions. While his separation rates were lower than those of other top wide receivers in this class, that is understandable given his higher average depth of target compared to his peers.
While many college receivers who have posted dominant numbers have been Z receivers or slot specialists, McMillan stands out as one of the most accomplished taller receivers of the past decade. His 89.5 receiving grade ranks fifth among Power Five receivers 6-foot-2 or taller during that span, with only CeeDee Lamb accumulating more receiving yards. McMillan ranks ahead of Rome Odunze, Courtland Sutton, Bryan Edwards and Denzel Mims. Notably, Lamb, McMillan, Odunze and Sutton were all within 2.2 grading points of each other, while they were at least five points clear of Edwards and Mims.
The Panthers rotated Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen, Jalen Coker and David Moore at wide receiver last season, depending on who was healthy. McMillan is a prototypical X receiver, and Carolina lacked a true X option throughout 2024. All four returning wide receivers posted respectable target rates between 16% and 20%, and neither the tight end nor running back groups project to command a significant share of targets. McMillan may begin his career within that same snap and target range, but importantly, there is a clear path for him to grow into an elite target rate if his talent demands it.
McMillan’s preseason usage was optimistic, as he played 19 of 20 snaps with the starters. This suggests he should play more than any of the Panthers’ wide receivers last season.
Having Dave Canales as head coach should generally be a positive for McMillan’s development. Canales served as the Seattle Seahawks‘ passing game coordinator in 2020 and 2021, the two seasons when D.K. Metcalf posted double-digit touchdowns and recorded his career-high 1,303 receiving yards in 2020.
Canales was also the offensive coordinator for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2023, when Mike Evans scored 13 touchdowns and posted his best receiving yardage total since 2018.
Both Metcalf and Evans served as clear X receivers in those systems. On the downside, Canales’ offenses historically have not ranked among the league's best and have consistently finished below average in plays per game.
McMillan entered the draft as the safest rookie wide receiver option, and he landed in an ideal situation. He has the upside to develop into an excellent wide receiver with top-10 fantasy potential as a rookie, though there is also a risk he takes time to adjust and gets lost in the shuffle among several Panthers receivers. In most scenarios, however, he should be a fantasy starter in his rookie season.
WR Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: 9.08)
Egbuka spent the past three seasons as the second option in Ohio State’s passing game, first behind Marvin Harrison Jr. and then behind Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes were often ahead in games, allowing them to run the ball with future NFL running backs. That hurt Egbuka's cumulative statistics, but his per-route numbers are very strong relative to other wide receivers. His target rates remained extremely high for a No. 2 receiver.
Egbuka checks many boxes, including high separation scores and catch rates. While his speed isn’t elite, it’s what you would expect from a mid-to-late first-round pick of his size. On the downside, the PFF Draft Guide notes his “route breaks could be sharper” and “his breaks aren’t as sharp or twitchy as some.”
In general, you hope to see college players improve each season, but that wasn’t the case for Egbuka. He played so well in his second year that there wasn’t as much room to put up bigger numbers, but he also never exceeded an 85.0 PFF receiving grade in a season — a mark that most potential first-round wide receivers reach.
The big concern around Egbuka when he was drafted was his path to playing time. The Buccaneers‘ top three wide receivers were among the best units in the league last season with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan. However, Godwin is expected to miss September, while McMillan is expected to miss half the season due to a neck injury. Egbuka will probably take McMillan’s spot as the Z receiver for the first half of the season, even though he’s most experienced in the slot. In the preseason, he primarily played Evans’ X receiver spot. That experience at every position should help him play significant snaps, even when the other wide receivers are healthy.
Egbuka’s ADP has been rising and will continue as we approach the start of the season. However, most ADPs can be slow to adjust to where players should actually be picked once news happens, particularly when it’s not news to a star player. Egbuka should be drafted closer to the sixth round, so even if his ADP creeps up to the seventh or eighth round, he will still be a value.
Egbuka is a very talented rookie, but he was consistently the second wide receiver in Ohio State’s offense. With the Buccaneers, he will likely continue to be a second option to Mike Evans, but he has a chance to be the Buccaneers' top wide receiver by the end of the season.
TE Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts (ADP: 9.04)
Warren is the top tight end of the 2025 draft class because of his all-around ability.
From 2020 to 2022, he was buried on Penn State’s depth chart behind Pat Freiermuth, Brenton Strange and Theo Johnson, all projected NFL starters in 2025. Warren and Johnson often shared the field in 2023, whereas Warren ran more routes and sustained more blocks. Warren showed signs of greatness in 2023 as one of four Power-Five tight ends with a positive grade on at least 10% of his routes across more than 300 routes run.
However, a high drop rate dragged down his PFF grade. His 14.6% drop rate was the highest among the same subset of tight ends. His separation rate ranked in the 88th percentile among tight ends, but it was also the second-lowest clip of the expected Day 1 and Day 2 tight end draft prospects.
Penn State made Warren its clear lead tight end in 2024 in a way we haven’t seen since early in James Franklin‘s tenure. He posted one of the best seasons by a Power-Five tight end in the PFF era. His PFF overall grade ranked in the top 10 among those with at least 500 offensive snaps during the regular season. His 974 receiving yards in the regular season were the most for any Power-Five tight end since 2014. He cut his drops in half despite seeing nearly triple the targets. His yards per route run mark ranked second best in the PFF era, behind Brock Bowers in 2021.
Warren’s college experience should put him in a position to be an NFL starter from day one who can immediately contribute.
Warren joins an Indianapolis Colts team that consistently utilizes three or four tight ends in a rotation. In 2024, that included Mo Alie-Cox, Drew Ogletree, Kylen Granson, who left for the Philadelphia Eagles in free agency, and, at times, Will Mallory. Jelani Woods showed some promise as a rookie in 2022 but has missed the past two seasons due to injury.
None of the tight ends on the field will stop Warren from taking as many snaps as he can handle. He has extensive experience lining up in a traditional tight end position, which isn’t always true for an NFL rookie. Warren played more than 500 snaps from the slot, more than 200 out wide and more than 150 out of the backfield in 2024. He can handle an 80% snap rate as a rookie, which isn’t all that common for NFL tight ends. His diverse skill set should make him a scheme fit for any team. Alie-Cox, in particular, has been one of the best blocking tight ends in the NFL and will likely join Warren in two-tight end sets.
This preseason, Warren has played 34 of 35 plays with the starters over the first two games and has received multiple targets. His solid usage in the preseason, combined with more questionable usage by players like Dalton Kincaid and Colston Loveland, has led to his ADP rise.
At 260 pounds, Warren is larger than the typical fantasy starting tight end. The top nine consensus tight ends for 2025 all weigh 250 pounds or less. Tucker Kraft, Hunter Henry, Dallas Goedert and Pat Freiermuth all finished last season with at least 650 yards while weighing more than 250 pounds. He posted an OK average depth of target and deep target rate throughout his time at Penn State, but he won’t be a tight end who can be a fantasy starter through big plays and low volume.
However, Trey McBride posted a 3.6% deep target rate last season with a 6.5-yard average depth of target, and he’s a top-two fantasy tight end heading into 2025 due to his talent and volume. In recent seasons, Jonnu Smith, David Njoku, Evan Engram and Travis Kelce also fit the category of fantasy starters despite average-to-low deep target rates and average depth of targets.
The Colts' wide receiver room includes Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Josh Downs and Adonai Mitchell. All play roles in the offense, but the room ranks as a bottom-tier unit due to a lack of top-end talent. This means Warren should be able to reach a relatively high target rate.
Colts head coach Shane Steichen hasn’t had a clear top tight end since joining the team, but he gained experience with featured tight ends when he was an offensive coordinator. In 2020, Hunter Henry played 87.3% of the Los Angeles Chargers‘ offensive snaps. And in 2021 and 2022, Dallas Goedert played 78.6% and 90.0%, respectively, with the Philadelphia Eagles, excluding games missed due to injury. The Colts' previous rotation at tight end should be of no concern for Warren’s potential snap share.
It is fair to be concerned about the Colts' offense in general. Typically, the quarterback doesn’t matter much for a low-average-depth-of-target tight end. Daniel Jones won the Colts' starting job, and his accuracy is more in line with the league average than Anthony Richardson Sr.‘s. He also has more experience throwing shorter passes. Darren Waller’s time with the Giants was short-lived, and Jones was injured for half of it, but Waller did post an eight-catch, 86-yard game and a six-catch, 76-yard game during their five outings together.
Warren has the talent to be a high-volume, fantasy-starting tight end. He will likely have the necessary playing time and the support of his head coach. The immediate questions are at quarterback and whether Jones builds enough chemistry with Warren for the rookie to become a reliable fantasy starter.
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