- Bijan Robinson takes the top spot: The Atlanta Falcons running back carries the best mix of risk and reward heading into next season.
- The 2025 draft class will shape fantasy drafts: While no player from the class has become a top-five player at their position, the class produced over a dozen fantasy starters. The players from the class who improve the most will be league winners.
- 2026 NFL Draft season is here: Try the best-in-class PFF Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2026's top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team. Get 25% off your PFF+ annual subscription with code PFFFANTASYPODCAST25.
Estimated Reading Time: 25 minutes
The legal tampering period began one week ago Monday, and the majority of top free agents at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end signed new contracts. This led to a significant shake-up in fantasy rankings, particularly at running back.
There will similarly have significant movement in the rankings after the NFL draft, as up to a dozen wide receivers are expected to be selected in the first two rounds. This list includes only quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, while kickers and team defenses will be added after the draft. It is designed for redraft PPR leagues.
Analysis for the top-10 players can be found at the bottom of the article. You can also click on the analysis column for one of those 10 players to jump to the analysis on that player.
Last updated: 5 a.m. Monday, March 16
1. RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
The first decision for the top overall spot is between an elite running back and an elite wide receiver. Positional scarcity has made the top running backs more valuable than a few seasons ago. Most teams have a committee in the backfield. Only 10 teams have used a running back for at least two-thirds of their offensive snaps, and all 10 ranked in the top 14 in fantasy points per game. It’s very valuable to have these running backs, and they will all be gone within the first few rounds of the draft.
Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs‘ play is more sustainable than the elite wide receivers' play from this season. Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba both ranked in the top five in targets per route among wide receivers in the last 20 seasons at 34.8% and 31.9%, respectively. Naturally, anyone with exceptionally high targets per route regresses in that statistic the following season. That makes it more likely that Robinson and Gibbs continue to rank among the top five running backs than Nacua and Smith-Njigba repeating as top-five receivers.
Robinson ranks ahead of Gibbs due to the potential for improvement in 2026. The Falcons had a top-10 team in run-blocking grade last season, despite missing right tackle Kaleb McGary throughout the season. McGary was a top-10 run-blocking right tackle in 2022, 2023 and 2024 by run-blocking grade. He and the rest of the projected starting offensive line are under contract for 2026. Robinson should be able to break more long plays with an improved line.
One Falcon who left in free agency was Robinson’s backup, Tyler Allgeier. Robinson doesn’t have much room to increase his volume of touches, but he has room for more goal-line touches. Allgeier had more rushing touchdowns than Robinson last season, including four touchdowns from the one-yard line. Those carries will go to Robinson next season, leading to more touchdowns. The Falcons don’t have a clear alternative to Allgeier on the roster, and they haven’t made an investment at running back during the first week of free agency.
The Falcons made a coaching change, switching to Kevin Stefanski as their new head coach. Stefanski has typically utilized a two-man rotation at running back. That was at least partially because of Nick Chubb’s lack of receiving ability. In 2019, when Stefanski was the Minnesota Vikings‘ offensive coordinator, Dalvin Cook typically played over 70% of the team's offensive snaps when healthy and was RB2 in PPR points per game that season. Kareem Hunt had multiple games where he played 85% of the offensive snaps or more when Chubb was injured. Stefanski’s history of prioritizing running backs should be more of an asset than a liability for Robinson.
2. RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
Gibbs is a close second for the top overall spot. He’s similarly ranked in the top five each of the last two seasons, has a top-12 run-blocking offensive line, and everyone on the line is under contract for next season.
The main reason Robinson is ahead of Gibbs is each player's offensive line. While Robinson will have an injured player returning, Gibbs has lost two of his linemen. Left tackle Taylor Decker and center Graham Glasgow were released. They have added a trio of veterans in Larry Borom, Cade Mays and Juice Scruggs, but none of them have graded particularly well at run blocking. If anything, we should expect the Lions offensive line to take a step back in run blocking rather than forward.
However, there is room for optimism for Gibbs after the Lions traded away David Montgomery. Montgomery became less of a problem for Gibbs’ fantasy value in 2025 compared to the previous two seasons, but Gibbs could be in store for a similar bump in rushing touchdowns. The Lions added Isiah Pacheco in free agency to be Gibbs backup, which shouldn’t be a problem for Gibbs’ volume.
Another minor concern is that the Lions still have more players to target in their offense, as Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta and Isaac TeSlaa are all noteworthy, young options under contract next season. Robinson’s primary competition for touches remains Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
While Dan Campbell remains head coach, the Lions hired former Arizona Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing to helm their offense. The Cardinals generally used a two-back committee with an early-down back and a third-down back, but when James Conner was younger, he had multiple games with a 75%-plus snap rate under Petzing. We shouldn’t expect a significant change in usage with the change at offensive coordinator.
3. WR Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
There are three clear-cut top wide receivers, just as there are three top running backs. Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba both averaged 22 fantasy points per game or more this season, while the next closest wide receiver was at 19. Ja’Marr Chase finished over that mark last season and finished fourth among wide receivers that season at 18.9, despite changing quarterbacks multiple times over the season. Reasonable people could have these three in any order at this point in the season.
Nacua takes the second spot because he’s been the best wide receiver in the NFL over the past two seasons. His 96.3 PFF receiving grade is much higher than that of any other wide receiver. He is tied with Amon-Ra St. Brown for the second-most positively graded receptions over the past two seasons, despite running nearly 400 fewer routes. He has nine receptions with a +1.5 grade or better, the most among wide receivers.
He also stands out with his ability to dominate the most difficult opponents. Nacua faced three teams in the top eight at preventing fantasy points to wide receivers this season. He caught 10 passes for 130 yards against the Houston Texans, logged 11 receptions for 112 yards against the Philadelphia Eagles and notched 19 receptions for 300 yards and two touchdowns over two matchups against the Seattle Seahawks. He similarly gained 90-plus receiving yards against all three top-10 opponents in 2024.
The Rams are in a great spot for next season. They own a league-leading 96.2 team PFF grade. Their coaching staff remains largely intact, and they haven’t lost any significant free agents. They added Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson to improve their cornerback room. We can expect more of the same from Los Angeles in general next season.
The main concern is that Matthew Stafford will be 38 years old next season. Stafford is playing at an MVP level, as he has a career-high 93.4 offensive grade. There is a reasonable chance Stafford regresses next season. There are also rumors that the Rams are interested in A.J. Brown. If they trade for Brown, it would affect Nacua’s target share.
4. WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
Chase has been a great, but not excellent, NFL wide receiver. His PFF receiving grade hovered between 84.9 and 86.7 in each of his first four seasons, before he reached a career-high 90.1 PFF receiving grade this season. He’s closed the gap between himself and the elite receivers thanks to having Joe Burrow at quarterback, in addition to Cincinnati‘s passing volume. Burrow’s 94.2 PFF passing grade over the past two seasons is notably higher than that of any other quarterback.
The key members of the Bengals who have helped Chase will remain in place, including head coach Zac Taylor, fellow great receiver Tee Higgins and most of the offense. The Bengals have used their cap space to help their defense and will likely use their draft capital to do the same. This means the offense should look almost identical to last season when everyone was healthy.
No wide receiver dominates a favorable matchup as well as Chase. He has put together five games with double-digit receptions for 160 or more yards and at least one touchdown over the past two seasons. The rest of the league has combined for nine.
The primary reason Chase isn’t ranked first is that he hasn’t played nearly as well as Nacua in tough matchups. He played three games against teams in the top eight at preventing fantasy points to wide receivers. He caught five passes for 50 yards against the Minnesota Vikings, secured two receptions for 26 yards against the Cleveland Browns and tallied five receptions for 23 yards against the Denver Broncos.
5. RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
McCaffrey led all running backs in fantasy points in 2025, and it was the fifth season he’s ranked among the top two. He uniquely achieved this, finishing 10th in rushing fantasy production among running backs, while his receiving fantasy production was good enough to rank among the top-10 wide receivers.
McCaffrey ranked third in rushing attempts but averaged 3.7 yards per carry and was no longer able to break long runs. His NGS tracking data suggests his top-end speed over the last two seasons wasn’t as high as it was during the first seven seasons of his career. While there is a chance McCaffrey’s rushing production bounces back, there is also a chance San Francisco starts letting another running back take some of the carries.
McCaffrey’s receiving production also happened in a year where the 49ers‘ receiving unit didn’t go according to plan. San Francisco thought that, by midseason, it could have a receiver unit of Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall and George Kittle. Aiyuk didn’t play this season. Pearsall missed six weeks in the middle of the season and was ineffective in his first three games back from injury. Kittle missed five games and wasn’t as effective his first two back. Jennings also missed two games.
The 49ers took a significant step in bolstering their wide receiver room during free agency, adding veteran Mike Evans. Even if the 49ers don’t make another change at wide receiver, their receiving room will look better in 2026 than 2025. San Francisco has seven picks in the first four rounds of the 2026 draft, and could use one of those picks on a wide receiver. McCaffrey could lead all running backs in receiving production next year while still having a notable decrease in production.
All three of the top running backs are somewhat dependent on an elite run blocker – right guard Chris Lindstrom in Atlanta, right tackle Penei Sewell in Detroit and left tackle Trent Williams in San Francisco. Williams will be 38 years old next season, making him the most likely to decline or suffer an injury.
While McCaffrey will be the top overall player again if everything goes right, there are more reasons to expect a decline from McCaffrey this season, given how he achieved his production and his signs of decline.
6. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
Smith-Njigba has been incredibly consistent this season, finishing with at least 90 receiving yards in all but two games. He is also the youngest of the top three wide receivers, so it’s more likely we see him improve as a player compared to the other two. The reason he is third on the list is that the Seahawks are more likely to undergo significant offensive changes this offseason than the Rams or Bengals.
Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is the favorite for the Las Vegas Raiders head coaching position. If Kubiak leaves, that will give Smith-Njigba his fourth offensive coordinator of his career. A new offensive coordinator could spread the ball out more than Kubiak did.
He should have consistency at quarterback with Sam Darnold. The former Minnesota Vikings quarterback ranks among the top-10 quarterbacks by PFF grade over the last two seasons, but Darnold hasn’t been as good as Burrow or Stafford.
Tight end A.J. Barner had the ninth-highest PFF receiving grade this season among those with at least 250 routes, but he also has the fewest receiving yards from the group. The Seahawks' newest receiver, Rashid Shaheed, has only recently become heavily involved in their offense. Tory Horton had the sixth-highest grade among rookie wide receivers with at least 100 routes, but he only recorded 13 receptions. Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet both saw their per-game receiving production cut in half compared to the previous year, but it’s possible the Seahawks new running back room could be more involved in the passing game. No one is going to take Smith-Njigba’s spot as the top receiving weapon in the offense, but one or two players emerging with a bigger role could chip away at Smith-Njigba’s consistency.
7. RB De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
Achane has ranked in the top six in fantasy points per game among running backs each of the last three seasons. Achane’s 91.0 rushing grade this season is the best among all running backs, but his situation hasn’t been as good as the top three running backs.
The Falcons, Lions and 49ers have been three of the top-12 teams in run-blocking grade in each of the last four seasons. The Dolphins have ranked in the bottom six in each of the last two seasons. The 49ers and Lions have been among the highest-scoring offenses, while the Dolphins have been in the bottom 12 in scoring each of the last two seasons. This has made it harder for Achane to match the other backs' touchdown totals.
The Dolphins' cap situation isn’t great, so there isn’t much reason to believe the offense will substantially improve this offseason, unless new starting quarterback Malik Willis performs better than expected. If there isn’t much difference, we can still expect Achane to be among the top few running backs in talent and the top few in opportunities. That combination is enough to keep him a top-five running back and a first-round fantasy pick.
8. WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Jefferson was a top-five fantasy wide receiver in fantasy points per game each season from 2021 to 2024. That streak ended in 2025, when he finished 30th, largely due to the play of his quarterback. He went from primarily having Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold in the four previous seasons to Carson Wentz and J.J. McCarthy last season.
The percentage of passes thrown his way that were catchable dropped by nearly 10% compared to the previous two seasons, and his average depth of target dropped to accommodate his quarterbacks, leading to fewer yards per reception. His catchable target rate for end zone passes dropped from 50% to 25%, resulting in a significant decrease in touchdowns.
The Vikings added Kyler Murray in free agency, which was the best option for Minnesota. Murray has supported elite fantasy receivers before, including DeAndre Hopkins, who finished at WR4 in 2020, the only season where Murray and Hopkins were both healthy together. Murray also supported Trey McBride’s TE2 season in 2024.
While there is some level of risk anytime a wide receiver has a new quarterback, this change should result in Jefferson returning to the top-five fantasy wide receivers.
9. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
St. Brown is fourth in fantasy points per game among wide receivers this season at 19.1, was fifth last season at 18.6 and fourth in 2023 at 20.7. He has shown similar consistency at PFF grade, finishing with a receiving grade between 90.0 and 91.3 each of the last four seasons. The Lions don’t have any major offensive free agents.
There isn’t much reason to expect St. Brown to have even more production than he’s had in recent seasons. He has several +0.5 graded receptions but doesn’t make big plays at nearly the rate of the top-three wide receivers on the list. This gives him a safe floor, but a lower ceiling. The Lions have more weapons on offense than most teams, making it so Detroit doesn’t need to rely more heavily on St. Brown.
There is little reason to be concerned about a decline. He is the oldest of the wide receivers ranked so far, but the Lions could have a new offensive play-caller next season, which could favor some of the other offensive players. Jameson Williams has improved his receiving grade each season, and there is a chance he could be more involved. However, those were the same concerns last season, and that had no impact on St. Brown’s fantasy production.
St. Brown is the safest wide receiver that can be selected in fantasy drafts, but there will be other wide receivers with a later ADP that will have more upside.
10. RB James Cook III, Buffalo Bills
Cook finished 11th in fantasy points per game among running backs in 2024, but he accomplished this with 16 rushing touchdowns. He was drafted slightly later due to expected regression. A lot has gone right for Cook this year to suggest he can continue to be a great running back in 2026.
Cook’s carries per game took a dramatic leap from 12.9 to 19.1 this season. Part of this was the Bills running a little more frequently, and the other part was the team turning to Ray Davis less frequently. He averaged a high 5.3 yards per carry, which is slightly higher than his 5.1 career average. Sometimes, when a running back earns more rushing production, it comes at the expense of his receiving, but that wasn’t the case for Cook, who was right in line with last season.
The team’s run blocking moved up to sixth this season, and right tackle Spencer Brown led the way in his best NFL season. There was no weakness among the other four linemen. Cook’s PFF rushing grade declined slightly this season, but the improved offensive line led to a net increase in efficiency.
The Bills are in a rough spot, salary-cap-wise, and two of their five linemen are slated for free agency. If the offseason doesn’t go well, there is a chance Cook will move down the rankings. Until then, Cook has moved into first-round consideration as one of the league’s better running backs in one of the league's best offenses, as he has minimal competition for touches.
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