- Nico Collins is among the league’s top wide receivers: Collins has posted a 93.2 receiving grade over the last two seasons combined, which ranks first among all wide receivers.
- Brian Thomas Jr. found his rhythm: Over the last seven weeks, Thomas consistently scored fantasy points and had the third-most points among wide receivers during that stretch.
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Estimated reading time: 16 minutes
Ja’Marr Chase is the clear favorite to lead wide receivers in fantasy points this season. Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb led the league 2022 and 2023 and are the next two wide receivers by ADP. Every other wide receiver who has finished in the top two in fantasy points at wide receiver in the last five years is 31 years old or older. This makes every other wide receiver a bit of a long shot to finish first overall.
These are five wide receivers who have a shot at reaching that top spot for the first time if everything goes right this season.
The average draft position listed is from a consensus between ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo! for where the player is picked on average in a 12-team, redraft league.
Last updated: Sunday, August 31
Nico Collins, Houston Texans (ADP: 2.01)
Collins was a Texans third-round pick in 2021 and immediately started playing a minimum of 55% of the Texans' offensive snaps. In 2022, he was in a rotation with Brandin Cooks, Chris Moore and Phillip Dorsett. In 2023, Houston moved on from all three other receivers and added C.J. Stroud at quarterback. This was enough for Collins to completely break out.
His target rate only increased slightly, but his catch rate increased from 57.8% to 73.4%, thanks to higher-quality passes. His average depth of target decreased slightly, but he became much more elusive, leading to an elite avoided tackle rate. This led to more yards after the catch, ultimately leading to more yards per reception. In 2024, Collins didn’t make quite as many big plays but was more consistently receiving positive grades when targeted, and he was targeted even more often.
Collins has 0.612 fantasy points per route run in PPR leagues, which is the best for wide receivers over the past two seasons. This includes the most yards per route run at 3.0 and the second-most touchdowns per route at 0.02. When he can get open, there has been no receiver better in recent seasons. However, he’s not able to get open as often as other receivers, and he’s not as successful as plenty of other receivers when he’s not open.
The main problem is that Collins runs fewer routes than other receivers, so he’s only finished seventh and eighth in fantasy points per game over the last two seasons. Collins has also missed at least two games in every season and averaged over four games per season. This has led him to finish even lower in total fantasy points each season. However, it’s worth noting that Collins' per-game numbers from 2024 are deceiving because of games where his time was limited. He played nine snaps in Week 5 prior to injury, 30 snaps in Week 11 while returning from injury and 11 snaps in Week 18 with a playoff spot clinched. He was often playing over 80% of the snaps for the rest of the season. He averaged 18.9 fantasy points per game, removing those three games, which would have ranked third last year. He also averaged 19.1 points per game in the NFL playoffs.
The Texans swapped out offensive coordinators, bringing in Nick Caley, but Ben McDaniels remained the wide receiver coach and passing game coordinator, a job he’s held since 2022. Caley has never been the lead offensive coach for a team, so we haven’t seen exactly what his vision looks like, but his past teams have relied heavily on three-receiver sets.
The big question is how much playing time Collins will get in Caley’s offense. It’s possible his limited playing time in the past was a coach's decision by previous coaches, but it’s also possible that the Texans know something about Collins, particularly with his injury history, and know they need to limit Collins’ snaps. Caley has been around wide receivers playing at least 85% of offensive snaps regularly before, so a notable increase in snaps for Collins is at least possible.
Collins is a very talented wide receiver with a history of top-10 success. There is reason to believe he can improve with more playing time or an improvement from C.J. Stroud. The main concern is his injury history, where he’s missed time each season.
Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 2.03)
Brian Thomas Jr. entered the league as the 23rd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and quickly carved out a role in Jacksonville’s offense. Preseason usage pointed to him being a top option on the depth chart, operating as one of the Jaguars’ primary outside receivers alongside Gabe Davis, with Christian Kirk manning the slot in three-receiver sets. Over the first four weeks, Thomas consistently played between 73% and 78% of Jacksonville's offensive snaps, while Parker Washington rotated in for occasional three-receiver looks. Despite the somewhat limited playing time, Thomas impressed early, totaling 275 yards and three touchdowns, 14th among wide receivers in fantasy points.
Midseason, the Jaguars began to scale back his snaps slightly, holding him under 66% of their offensive snaps in three of four games. A chest injury in Week 8 led to limited practice participation for several weeks. Even so, injuries to Kirk and Davis opened the door for Thomas to take on a near-every-down role, as he logged snap shares of 84% or higher in eight of the final nine games.
Once fully healthy, Thomas emerged as one of the league’s most productive fantasy wideouts. Over his final seven games, he scored at least 13 PPR points each week and averaged 21.5 PPR points per game, third-best among receivers behind only Ja'Marr Chase and Puka Nacua. Notably, this late-season surge came entirely with Mac Jones at quarterback.
Thomas finished his rookie year with 2.45 yards per route run and 0.534 PPR points per route, both ranking in the top five among wide receivers. He excelled against zone coverage (2.6 yards per route run, fourth-best) and proved surprisingly effective from the slot despite possessing the size and skill set of a traditional X receiver.
The Jaguars moved on from Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis this offseason, retooling their receiving corps around Brian Thomas Jr. Jacksonville added Travis Hunter with the second overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft and signed Dyami Brown in free agency. Parker Washington, who stepped up in 2024, rounds out the depth chart.
At tight end, Evan Engram’s departure opens the door for Brenton Strange to climb the depth chart. Still, the passing game should revolve around Thomas and Hunter. Given Brown, Washington, and Davis’ historically low target rates and a backfield unlikely to command a huge target share, Thomas projects to maintain a high target rate even with Hunter in the mix. A 25-30% range for Thomas and 20-25% for Hunter aligns with splits seen last season from duos like D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen in Chicago, Drake London and Kyle Pitts in Atlanta, and Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson in New York (adjusted for injuries).
New head coach Liam Coen brings experience coordinating offenses with high slot receiver usage. In 2022, Cooper Kupp averaged a league-best 22.4 PPR points per game over nine contests while lining up in the backfield or slot on 53.1% of his snaps. In 2024, Chris Godwin averaged 19.7 PPR points per game through seven weeks, running 61.7% of his routes from the slot.
Among wide receivers 6-foot-1 or taller and 205-plus pounds with 100-plus slot routes over the last three seasons, Thomas, Kupp and Godwin rank in the top seven for fantasy points per route, with Thomas leading the group. Coen has already stated the passing game will run through Thomas, noting his versatility to move around and dominate from the slot.
Thomas deserves to be considered among the first-round fantasy picks this season, but he comes with more risk than most in that range. If he emerges as the best slot receiver Liam Coen has coached, a top overall fantasy WR finish is within his range of outcomes. However, there’s also a scenario where Trevor Lawrence struggles to adapt to Coen’s offense and Travis Hunter ascends as Jacksonville’s primary receiving option.
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons (ADP: 2.08)
London was the eighth pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and instantly became the Atlanta Falcons‘ top wide receiver. In his first year, he played only 78% of offensive snaps. The Falcons were a run-first offense under Arthur Smith, which led to a low routes per game rate. While he had six games of at least five catches and 120 yards as a rookie, he also had two games with more than 40 offensive snaps and one reception for single-digit yards.
London's snap rate increased slightly in his second season, and the team was a little more pass-heavy. Unfortunately, that coincided with a notable drop in his target rate. His best games were even better than the previous season, including a 172-yard performance and a 125-yard performance, but he was also held under 50 receiving yards for half of his games and scored only two touchdowns. Despite being the top Falcons wide receiver, London was outside the top 40 at the position in fantasy points per game in both years.
The Falcons remained a run-first offense in 2024, but London’s snap rate increased to 90%, leading to another increase in routes per game. Atlanta returned to giving him an elite target rate, as his 27.2% clip ranked fourth among wide receivers last year. His quarterback play also improved, allowing him to finish 14th in fantasy points per game and fifth in total fantasy points among wide receivers.
One of the many reasons for London’s improved statistics in 2024 was playing more out of the slot. His slot rate increased from 18.6% in 2023 to 39.6% in 2024. Typically, slot receivers are smaller, quick wide receivers, whereas London is 6-foot-4 and 219 pounds and on the slower side for wide receivers. His 11.0-yard average depth of target was the second-highest among receivers with at least 50 targets in the slot. He was targeted on a league-leading one-third of his routes, resulting in a league-leading 2.57 yards per route run out of the slot.
Quarterback play was a big reason for London’s struggles in his first two seasons. The Falcons had the second-lowest team PFF passing grade over the two seasons. While Kirk Cousins didn’t fully live up to expectations, Atlanta's 78.3 PFF passing grade last season ranked 10th among teams. Cousins played well enough to remain a starter for most teams, but Atlanta had first-round rookie Michael Penix Jr. waiting in the wings, and he played very well on a small sample last season.
London shone even brighter in the last three weeks of the season when Penix was the starter. He was thrown to on 37% of his routes, including at least 34% in all three games. That led to 3.52 yards per route run. London averaged 15.1 fantasy points per game with Cousins as the starter and 23.1 fantasy points per game with Penix. That is roughly the difference between WR20 and WR2. We should never expect a target rate to consistently exceed 30%, so some regression is on the table. Regardless, London's initial play with Penix is a promising sign for an even better season.
London improved significantly in 2024, thanks to increased playing time, more opportunities out of the slot and improved quarterback play. We should expect more of the same in 2025, with the most significant variable being Michael Penix Jr.‘s ceiling in his first season as a starter.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets (ADP: 3.12)
Wilson was drafted with the 10th overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft. The Jets had the lowest team passing grade in 2022 and the third-lowest in 2023. In 2024, Wilson had Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback. His targets went down, and the team didn’t run as many pass plays, but his receptions and receiving yards went up. He doubled his career touchdown total, which helped him to his best fantasy season yet. His receiving grade was slightly ahead of Davante Adams, who was also heavily involved in the passing game.
His 85.4 three-year grade ranks 22nd-best among wide receivers with at least 500 routes run. A few of the wide receivers ahead of him are older, declining receivers, and some are coming back from injury, so it’s fair to expect Wilson to be considered at least a top-20 wide receiver, if not top 15. His fantasy production made a leap with Rodgers but not enough to suggest that Wilson is among the elite receivers in the league.
Wilson has the fourth-most targets among wide receivers over the last three years, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s among the top four this season. He finished third on the team in targets last season despite competing for catches with Davante Adams. Adams is now on the Los Angeles Rams, and tight end Tyler Conklin is with the Los Angeles Chargers. The only players remaining on the roster with at least 30 targets last season are Wilson, running back Breece Hall and wide receiver Allen Lazard. There are rumors that Lazard could be traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers if Aaron Rodgers signs there.
New York spent a few draft picks on receivers, including fourth-round wide receiver Arian Smith and second-round tight end Mason Taylor. They also signed Josh Reynolds. None of them will be a threat to Wilson’s target share. New York could trade for a solid WR2 option, but that still probably wouldn’t be enough to get worried about Wilson’s target rate.
The Jets have a brand new coaching staff with Tanner Engstrand taking the lead as the offensive coordinator. He’s never been the lead of an NFL offense before, but he’s spent the last five seasons on the Detroit Lions staff.
The preseason likely didn’t give us a great look at how the Jets will use their wide receivers in the regular season. They released the six players who lined up in the slot for them the most in the preseason. Allen Lazard and Arian Smith both lined up on the outside and on the line of scrimmage for over 80% of their snaps, which isn’t where they have typically played. Wilson had the highest slot rate of the group, which could mean they plan on using him more in the slot this season. With Detroit, that was Amon-Ra St. Brown’s role.
Wilson will likely be on a Jets offense with fewer targeted passes but a higher percentage of those passes going to Wilson, leaving him somewhere similar to last season. His best shot at improving his fantasy points per game is simply dominating his target rate even more than the earlier parts of his career.
Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals (ADP: 4.06)
Harrison was the fourth overall pick in the 2024 draft, which was the highest any wide receiver had been picked since Amari Cooper in the 2015 draft. He was an immediate starter for the Arizona Cardinals with a lot of expectations. He played at least 80% of Arizona's offensive snaps in most losses, but that would drop as low as 70% depending on how much the Cardinals were winning by in their victories.
After a quiet debut, he showed some of his promise through the rest of September, totalling 14 receptions for 239 yards and four touchdowns in his following three games. He dealt with a minor injury but showed his promise again in Week 8, finishing with six receptions for 111 yards and a touchdown. He followed that up with seven consecutive games under 60 receiving yards. Harrison finished 2024 on a high note, accumulating 11 receptions for 159 yards and a touchdown over his final two games.
This left him 30th in total fantasy points despite not missing a game. He only had two games as a top-12 fantasy wide receiver, and he ranked outside the top 48 in over 40% of his games. His PFF receiving grade was 29th among wide receivers with at least 200 routes run last season. His target share was generally fine, as his 114 targets were tied for the 19th-most among wide receivers, but only 69 of those targets were catchable, ranking 37th-most. His 45 uncatchable targets were the most in the league, and his 39.5% uncatchable rate was the highest among the 52 wide receivers with at least 75 targets.
Harrison will not only have the same competition for targets but also the same offensive coordinator, quarterback, running back room and most of the same offensive line. The Cardinals haven’t run a lot of plays per game but have run the ball more than most teams, which works a little bit against Harrison.
The bigger problem was his chemistry with Kyler Murray. Part of the issue is that Harrison has 23 targets when Murray was under pressure, finishing with a 17.4-yard average depth of target, and only 11 of those passes were catchable. A lot of the problem was Murray's chemistry with Harrison, leading to awkward ball placement, or Harrison simply not being where Murray thought he would be. Murray’s accuracy hasn’t generally been a problem, so this seems fixable. Head coach Jonathan Gannon said he expects a huge leap, and Murray has talked about improving their chemistry and timing.
Looking at historic data from the last decade, players with a 60.5% catchable target rate one year typically regress to the mean and have a 68.8% catchable target the following year. While that’s still below league average for wide receivers, that would be enough to move him from WR30 to WR17. If you believe Murray and Harrison can improve their chemistry better than a typical duo, then Harrison may improve even further.
Harrison’s first season was full of big expectations, which he didn’t fully live up to. Luckily, his target rate was high, and his target competition remains limited. He should finish among the top-20 wide receivers in targets again, and he needs to improve his chemistry with Kyler Murray so his fantasy value can also be among the top-20 wide receivers.
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