• A great week for Hollywood Brown: Marquise Brown has been one of the league’s best wide receivers versus man coverage and draws a favorable matchup against the Steelers in Week 13.
• Christian Kirk’s turn this week: As the Jaguars' wide receivers trade off big games, Kirk stands out as the best option this week against the Bengals' man-heavy unit.
• Temper expectations for a couple of big NFC West players: The Rams' and Seahawks' wide receivers have struggled against man coverage and face off against some of the NFL's best man coverage teams this week.
Estimated Reading Time: 27 minutes
This fantasy football WR report is an extension of PFF's wide receiver grades, which also detail how each receiver performs against man and zone coverages.
The additional fantasy-related detail — including opponent coverage tendencies — gives you just one more edge to help you dominate your fantasy leagues this season.
JUMP TO A TEAM:
ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
- Man coverage rank: 7th (31.4%)
- Zone coverage rank: 26th (67.3%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Steelers deploy man coverage at a top-10 rate in the NFL.
- Pittsburgh has earned just a 48.4 team coverage grade while in man coverage, which ranks 28th.
- The Steelers have allowed a 19.0% explosive play rate and 14.4 yards per reception in man coverage — both of which are bottom-five marks.
- Marquise Brown has earned the league’s sixth-best receiving grade against man coverage (87.6) this season.
- Brown has also managed 0.57 fantasy points per route run versus man, which ranks tied for seventh among wide receivers (minimum of 75 routes run).
- Brown should be in a great spot to produce against a struggling Steelers man coverage unit.
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- Man coverage rank: 9th (29.3%)
- Zone coverage rank: 24th (69.0%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Jets have played man coverage at a top-10 rate in 2023.
- They have been a top-10 team at limiting receiving yards, allowing 5.76 yards per coverage snap (eighth best).
- Where the Jets' man coverage has struggled is in limiting first downs and touchdowns per coverage snap, allowing a 46.3% rate — the fifth-worst mark in the league.
- Drake London sports the top target rate on the team against man coverage (29%) — nine percentage points higher than his target rate against zone (20%).
- London has also posted 0.55 fantasy points per route run against man, which ranks 21st among wide receivers (minimum of 30 routes run).
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Week 13 opponent: BYE WEEK
Versus man
Versus zone
Week 13 opponent: BYE WEEK
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Versus zone
- Man coverage rank: 14th (24.7%)
- Zone coverage rank: 19th (74.2%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Buccaneers play a league-average rate of both man and zone coverages.
- Tampa Bay has been below average in defensive success rate while in man (50.0%) and zone (46.5%).
- Tampa Bay ranks among the 10 worst teams in explosive play rate allowed while in man (17.3%) and among the five worst while in zone (15.6%).
- Adam Thielen has found much more success against man coverage this season, producing 0.64 fantasy points per route (10th), an 85.4 receiving grade (ninth) and 2.42 yards per route run (21st).
- Thielen’s target rate is also significantly higher when facing man coverage (29%), which should allow him to take advantage of his opportunities as the Buccaneers mix up coverages.
♦ Click here for even more insight into receiver performance against man and zone coverages
Week 13 opponent: BYE WEEK
Versus man
Versus zone
- Man coverage rank: 29th (14.9%)
- Zone coverage rank: 4th (83.7%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Jaguars play zone coverage at a top-five rate.
- Jacksonville has been about average at limiting yards per reception (10.4), yards per coverage snap (5.99) and explosive play rate (12.3%).
- Ja’Marr Chase is the Bengals' lone wide receiver worth starting again this week, as he has generated 0.43 fantasy points per route run versus zone (tied for 20th), an 83.0 receiving grade (13th) and 2.28 yards per route run (21st). He is the only qualifying Bengals wide receiver to crack the top 50 in any of those categories.
- Tee Higgins could return from injury this week, but this isn’t the best time to force him into a starting lineup, at least for fantasy managers who can afford to sit him.
- Against zone coverage, Higgins has accounted for just 0.24 fantasy points per route run (tied for 88th), a 60.1 receiving grade (75th) and 1.38 yards per route run (tied for 53rd).
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- Man coverage rank: 26th (17.1%)
- Zone coverage rank: 7th (80.3%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Rams have played zone coverage at the seventh-highest rate this season.
- The Rams have earned a 51.1 coverage grade while in zone coverage, the third-worst mark in the league.
- Amari Cooper has been the Browns'only wide receiver to enjoy notable success against man coverage this season, with 2.22 yards per route run (23rd), 0.31 fantasy points per route run (tied for 58th) and a 72.4 receiving grade (35th).
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- Man coverage rank: 30th (12.9%)
- Zone coverage rank: 2nd (86.1%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Seahawks play zone coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL.
- Seattle ranks around the league average in yards allowed per coverage snap (6.01) and first-down-plus-touchdown rate allowed (33.6%) while in zone.
- No fantasy manager needs to be told to start CeeDee Lamb at this point in the season, but it’s worth noting that he has been dominant against all coverages, though more so when facing man.
- Lamb has posted 0.44 fantasy points per route run (18th), 2.31 yards per route run (19th) and a 79.1 receiving grade (20th) against zone coverage.
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- Man coverage rank: 23rd (20.7%)
- Zone coverage rank: 8th (78.8%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Texans play zone coverage at a top-10 rate.
- Houston has allowed an explosive play on 14.1% of zone coverage snaps, tied for the ninth-worst rate, and ranks among the 10 worst teams in yards allowed per coverage snap (6.80) and per coverage target (8.2) while in zone.
- Courtland Sutton owns the team's top target rate against zone (18%). He is targeted 24% of the time against man, but his efficiency remains solid against both coverages.
- Sutton has managed 0.42 fantasy points per route run versus zone (24th) and 0.52 versus man (tied for 26th).
- Meanwhile, Jerry Jeudy has been much better against zone coverage, with 1.64 yards per route run compared to just 1.14 against man.
- This could be an ideal matchup for both of the Broncos' top wide receivers to deliver startable fantasy performances.
♦ Click here for even more insight into receiver performance against man and zone coverages
- Man coverage rank: 4th (34.9%)
- Zone coverage rank: 29th (63.2%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Saints play man coverage at a top-five rate.
- New Orleans has allowed a first down or a touchdown on just 34.7% of man coverage snaps — the fifth-best mark in the league.
- The Saints have also let up just 6.5 yards per coverage target, which is the seventh-best mark in the league.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown hasn’t been quite as effective against man coverage this season despite maintaining an elite target rate (29%).
- St. Brown ranks second among wide receivers in fantasy points per route run versus zone (0.60) but ties for 39th against man (0.42).
- He is still not leaving fantasy lineups, but it’s worth noting that this could be a more difficult matchup for him. The Saints are also allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.
♦ Click here for even more insight into receiver performance against man and zone coverages
- Man coverage rank: 6th (32.4%)
- Zone coverage rank: 27th (65.9%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Chiefs are playing man coverage at a top-10 rate this season.
- Kansas City has allowed an 8.3% explosive play rate while in man coverage, which ranks fourth in the league.
- Kansas City is also surrendering just 4.76 yards per coverage snap while in man — the third-best mark in the league.
- Christian Watson and Jayden Reed stand out as the best possible starts among Packers wideouts this week, as Watson leads the team in receiving grade versus man (70.7) and Reed leads the team in fantasy points per route run (0.52) and yards per route run (1.54) versus man.
- Romeo Doubs has struggled against man coverage this season, posting just a 57.3 receiving grade (88th), 0.25 fantasy points per route run (tied for 76th) and 0.38 yards per route run (96th).
- Doubs can be safely benched this week in a tougher matchup.
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- Man coverage rank: 18th (21.9%)
- Zone coverage rank: 13th (76.8%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Broncos have played a league-average rate of both man and zone coverage in 2023.
- Denver has allowed 8.5 yards per coverage target and 7.03 yards per coverage snap while in zone coverage. Both are the fourth-worst marks in the league.
- Denver has also allowed a first down or a touchdown on 37.9% of zone coverage snaps (sixth worst) and an explosive play on 17.2% of such snaps (second worst).
- Tank Dell and Nico Collins are both top-15 wide receivers against man and zone coverage in fantasy points per route run.
- Dell and Collins continue to be must-start options in a potentially strong matchup.
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- Man coverage rank: 15th (23.6%)
- Zone coverage rank: 18th (75.3%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Titans have played a league-average rate of both man and zone coverage.
- Tennessee has allowed 9.4 yards per coverage target and a 19.1% explosive play rate in man — among the worst figures in the league.
- The Titans are also a bottom-five defense in success rate (44.3%) and a bottom-10 unit in yards allowed per coverage target (8.2) while in zone coverage.
- Both Josh Downs and Michael Pittman should be able to take advantage of this favorable matchup.
- Pittman is leading the team in yards per route run (2.32) and fantasy points per route run (0.53) versus man — both of which are top-25 marks among wide receivers.
- Downs leads the team in yards per route run (1.80), as well as receiving grade (71.4), versus zone coverage.
♦ Click here for even more insight into receiver performance against man and zone coverages
- Man coverage rank: 10th (28.2%)
- Zone coverage rank: 22nd (71.2%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Bengals have played man coverage at a top-10 rate this season.
- They have allowed 8.9 yards per man coverage target and an explosive play on 17.5% of man coverage snaps, both of which are bottom-10 marks.
- Christian Kirk draws the most favorable matchup this week, as he leads the team with an elite 31% target rate when facing man coverage. He has also posted 3.32 yards points per route run against man (12th).
- Kirk should continue to be a strong flex option this week.
♦ Click here for even more insight into receiver performance against man and zone coverages
- Man coverage rank: 22nd (20.7%)
- Zone coverage rank: 10th (78.1%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Packers play zone coverage at a top-10 rate.
- Green Bay ranks ninth in limiting receiving yards in all categories, allowing just an 11.5% explosive play rate, 7.0 yards per coverage target and 9.7 yards per reception.
- Rashee Rice has been among the league's best versus zone coverage, generating 0.58 fantasy points per route run (tied for third), 3.08 yards per route run (second) and an 85.1 receiving grade (ninth).
- Rice is coming off a great week as the PPR WR3 in Week 12, setting career highs in offensive snaps played (68%) and team target share (32%).
- Rice is in line for another great matchup against the Packers’ zone-heavy defense in Week 13.
♦ Click here for even more insight into receiver performance against man and zone coverages
Week 13 opponent: BYE WEEK
Versus man
Versus zone
- Man coverage rank: 5th (33.2%)
- Zone coverage rank: 28th (63.8%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Patriots have played man coverage at a top-five rate.
- New England’s man defense is a top-10 unit in first downs and touchdowns allowed per play (38.6%), yards allowed per coverage snap (5.80) and explosive play rate allowed (12.4%).
- Keenan Allen is the Chargers' lone wide receiver to start this week, as rookie Quentin Johnston has done next to nothing versus man coverage this season, ranking tied for 89th in fantasy points per route run (0.19), 87th in yards per route run (0.96) and 81st in receiving grade (60.2) versus man coverage.
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- Man coverage rank: 1st (44.0%)
- Zone coverage rank: 32nd (53.9%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Browns play the highest rate of man coverage in the NFL.
- Cleveland has allowed a first down or a touchdown on just 33.3% of man coverage snaps, the third-best mark in the league.
- Cleveland’s man coverage defense also owns the second-best defensive success rate (63.2%).
- The Rams' wide receivers have found limited success against man coverage this season, with Puka Nacua leading the team with 0.41 fantasy points per route run (tied for 42nd), a 68.8 receiving grade (50th) and 2.23 yards per route run (tied for 26th).
- Cooper Kupp has struggled much more against man coverage, producing just 0.19 fantasy points per route run (tied for 89th), a 57.2 receiving grade (89th) and 0.82 yards per route run (90th).
- It’s going to be nearly impossible to avoid starting either Rams wide receiver this week with six teams on a bye, but temper expectations, especially for Kupp, in Week 13.
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- Man coverage rank: 8th (29.9%)
- Zone coverage rank: 25th (68.7%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Commanders play man coverage at a top-10 rate.
- Washington ranks around the league average or slightly above average in team coverage metrics while in man, including yards allowed per coverage snap (18th), explosive play rate allowed (14th) and defensive success rate (12th).
- Jaylen Waddle leads the Dolphins with 0.61 fantasy points per route run versus man (12th) and ranks second with 2.87 yards per route run versus man (14th).
- Waddle is coming off a PPR WR15 performance against a stronger man coverage team in Week 12 (New York Jets) and should be able to take advantage of a favorable matchup again this week.
♦ Click here for even more insight into receiver performance against man and zone coverages
Week 13 opponent: BYE WEEK
Versus man
Versus zone
- Man coverage rank: 24th (20.6%)
- Zone coverage rank: 11th (77.4%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Chargers play zone coverage at an above-average rate.
- They have given up an explosive play on 16.1% of coverage snaps while in zone, the fourth-worst mark in the NFL.
- The Chargers have also allowed 7.30 yards per coverage snap, which is the second-worst mark in the league.
- The Chargers are surrendering 11.8 yards per reception while in zone — the third-worst mark in the league.
- With Kendrick Bourne on injured reserve and Demario Douglas unlikely to play due to a concussion, no Patriots wide receivers have earned spots in starting fantasy lineups this week, despite the favorable matchup.
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- Man coverage rank: 12th (27.3%)
- Zone coverage rank: 21st (72.1%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Lions play man and zone coverages at league-average rates.
- Detroit has been average to slightly above average in yards allowed per coverage snap in both man and zone.
- The Lions have allowed explosive plays at an above-average rate in both coverages, however.
- All Saints wide receivers with a large enough sample size are dealing with injuries heading into Week 13, but in case they do play, it's worth noting that Chris Olave ranks seventh in fantasy points per route run (0.70), ninth in yards per route run (3.57) and fourth in receiving grade (90.4) versus man coverage this season.
♦ Click here for even more insight into receiver performance against man and zone coverages
Week 13 opponent: BYE WEEK
Versus man
Versus zone
- Man coverage rank: 20th (21.7%)
- Zone coverage rank: 15th (76.5%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Falcons have played a league-average rate of both man and zone coverages this season.
- Atlanta ranks around the league average to slightly above average in limiting yards per reception, yards per coverage snap and yards per target while in both coverages this season.
- Garrett Wilson has just average efficiency marks across both coverage types faced, ranking tied for 48th in fantasy points per route run against zone (0.34) and tied for 45th against man (0.40).
- Wilson’s high-end target rates while facing man and zone coverages are the only things keeping him in starting lineups at this point as the Jets' quarterback situation continues to get worse.
♦ Click here for even more insight into receiver performance against man and zone coverages
- Man coverage rank: 17th (22.2%)
- Zone coverage rank: 14th (76.5%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The 49ers play a league-average rate of both man and zone coverages.
- San Francisco has been much better in zone coverage, allowing a league-best 8.3 yards per reception.
- They have also allowed a first down or a touchdown on just 26.6% of zone coverage snaps, ranking second among defenses.
- The 49ers' man coverage defense has been almost the exact opposite, as they’ve allowed a league-worst 15.1 yards per reception and a first down or a touchdown on 43.8% of man coverage snaps (11th worst).
- A.J. Brown has dominated both man and zone coverages, ranking fifth in fantasy points per route run against man (0.84) and 15th against zone (0.46).
- DeVonta Smith hasn’t seen a very encouraging target rate versus man coverage, causing him to drop outside the top 50 wide receivers (minimum of 30 routes run) in fantasy points per route run (0.35).
- Smith should still see plenty of zone coverage, though, against the 49ers where his target rate (20%) and fantasy points per route run rank (tied for 28th) are more encouraging.
♦ Click here for even more insight into receiver performance against man and zone coverages
- Man coverage rank: 28th (16.1%)
- Zone coverage rank: 5th (82.6%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Cardinals play zone coverage at a top-five rate.
- Arizona’s zone coverage unit has allowed 7.08 yards per coverage snap, the third-worst mark in the league.
- The Cardinals have also earned a 59.5 coverage grade while in zone, which ranks 27th.
- Arizona has surrendered a first down or a touchdown on 42.0% of zone coverage snaps — the worst mark in the league.
- Pittsburgh’s wide receivers all rank outside the top 40 at their position in yards per route run, receiving grade and fantasy points per route run against zone coverage.
- However, the Cardinals' coverage unit has been poor enough not to limit those fantasy options too much. They aren’t necessarily smash plays, either.
♦ Click here for even more insight into receiver performance against man and zone coverages
- Man coverage rank: 13th (26.7%)
- Zone coverage rank: 20th (72.7%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Eagles play a league-average rate of both man and zone coverages.
- Philadelphia has allowed a first down or a touchdown on just 34.4% of man coverage snaps (fourth best) and 6.8 yards allowed per coverage target (eighth best).
- Philadelphia’s zone defense is more susceptible to fantasy production, allowing a first down or a touchdown on 35.7% of snaps (10th worst).
- Philadelphia is surrendering an explosive play on 13.6% of zone coverage snaps, which is the 11th-worst mark in the league.
- Brandon Aiyuk should be in a great spot to continue producing at a high rate this week, having earned 0.86 fantasy points per route run versus man (fourth) and 0.49 versus zone (10th).
- Deebo Samuel was projected last week to have a strong game against the Seahawks' zone-heavy defense, and while the 49ers aren’t as zone-heavy, they still run enough zone and have enough weaknesses in that regard for Samuel to enjoy another strong performance in Week 13.
- Samuel has earned an 86.7 receiving grade versus zone (sixth) with 2.95 yards per route run (fourth) and 0.48 fantasy points per route run (12th).
♦ Click here for even more insight into receiver performance against man and zone coverages
- Man coverage rank: 3rd (36.5%)
- Zone coverage rank: 30th (62.6%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Cowboys play man coverage at the third-highest rate in the league.
- Dallas has allowed 4.48 yards per coverage snap and 6.4 yards per coverage target in man. Both are top-five figures.
- Dallas has also let up a first down or a touchdown on just 37.3% of man coverage snaps (seventh).
- D.K. Metcalf has earned an elite 32% target rate when facing man coverage this season, although he hasn’t been overly efficient with those targets, ranking just 42nd in fantasy points per route run (0.41), 37th in yards per route run (1.95) and 42nd in receiving grade (71.3).
- Metcalf can still be trusted for volume, but this is a difficult matchup against a coverage scheme that he hasn’t been overly productive against.
- Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba have had even less success against man and can be avoided this week.
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- Man coverage rank: 31st (11.7%)
- Zone coverage rank: 3rd (84.7%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Panthers play zone coverage at the third-highest rate in the league.
- Carolina has allowed a first down or a touchdown on 39.4% of zone coverage snaps, the second-worst mark among defenses.
- Carolina is a bottom-10 team in yards allowed per coverage snap (6.51) and explosive play rate allowed (14.5%) while in zone coverage this season.
- Mike Evans leads the Buccaneers in target rate (23%), fantasy points per route run (0.47) and yards per route run (2.76) and shouldn’t leave fantasy lineups in a great matchup.
- Chris Godwin should also be in for a good day in a favorable matchup, having posted 1.94 yards per route run (30th) and an 80.7 receiving grade versus zone (17th) this season.
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- Man coverage rank: 32nd (9.9%)
- Zone coverage rank: 1st (88.4%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Colts play zone coverage at the highest rate in the league.
- Indianapolis ranks just slightly below average in yards allowed per coverage snap (15th worst) and explosive play rate allowed (12th worst) in zone coverage.
- The Colts are a bottom-10 coverage team in yards allowed per reception while in zone coverage (10.9).
- DeAndre Hopkins continues to be the only Tennessee wide receiver worth considering, as he is tied for 12th in fantasy points per route run against zone (0.47), is the team's only receiver with a target rate above 20% versus zone (24%) and is the team's only receiver to crack the top 70 in receiving grade and yards per route run versus zone.
♦ Click here for even more insight into receiver performance against man and zone coverages
- Man coverage rank: 19th (21.9%)
- Zone coverage rank: 16th (76.0%)
Versus man
Versus zone
- The Dolphins are deploying both man and zone coverages at league-average rates this season.
- Miami's defense is a bottom-10 unit in yards allowed per coverage snap (7.22) and explosive play rate allowed (17.4%) from man coverage.
- Miami has been slightly above average as a zone coverage unit, depending on the sampled metric.
- The Commanders' wide receivers have been inefficient for most of the season but still typically see enough volume to be in consideration for fantasy starting lineups.
- Curtis Samuel stands out as a potential deeper-league play, as he leads the team in fantasy points per route run versus man (0.44) and is tied for the team lead (minimum of 75 routes run) in that regard with Terry McLaurin versus zone (0.31).
- Samuel is a rotational wide receiver for Washington but has garnered encouraging target rates against both coverage types this season, making him a starting option in fantasy in a neutral matchup.
♦ Click here for even more insight into receiver performance against man and zone coverages
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