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Drake Maye’s league-best deep passing efficiency lines up perfectly against a Texans defense that consistently invites shots downfield, while New England’s man-heavy, high-disruption defense attacks C.J. Stroud’s well-documented struggles versus pressure and man coverage — issues compounded by Houston’s injuries at wide receiver.

By Judah Fortgang Jan 17, 2026 9:35 am EST
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The Bills’ passing game faces a tough matchup against a Broncos defense that plays man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league and fields three above-average corners. Meanwhile,Matthew Stafford draws a Bears defense that ranks bottom-five in disruption, setting up an ideal spot for him to thrive from clean pockets.

By Judah Fortgang Jan 17, 2026 9:05 am EST
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The Rams' struggling coverage unit may not be able to contain surging Bears rookie Luther Burden III, whose average of 2.51 yards per route run ranks fifth among receivers with at least 100 routes run.

By Mason Cameron Jan 16, 2026 9:43 am EST
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Wide receiver Nico Collins is still in concussion protocol, so look for rookie Jayden Higgins to take on an increased role in the Texans' offense.

By Mason Cameron Jan 16, 2026 9:38 am EST
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With George Kittle sidelined, look for Jake Tonges to take on an important red-zone role.

By Mason Cameron Jan 16, 2026 9:31 am EST
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Jaleel McLaughlin's 5.2 yards per carry since Week 11 ranks in the top 10 among qualifying backs, allowing him to surpass this line in six of his past seven games.

By Mason Cameron Jan 16, 2026 9:23 am EST
bet-nfl-divisional-round-betting-notebook-2025-2026

Ben Linsey provides data-driven, contextual betting notes for both sides of the ball for every divisional-round game.

By Ben Linsey Jan 16, 2026 9:00 am EST
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Utilizing the new PFF Player Prop Tool, here are two projections to target ahead of the NFL playoffs' divisional round.

By Ryan Smith Jan 16, 2026 7:50 am EST
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A contest between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks is among the divisional-round games that present early betting value.

By Mason Cameron Jan 12, 2026 8:45 am EST
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Kenneth Gainwell has emerged as Aaron Rodgers’ emergency outlet when pressure arrives. He leads the Steelers in target rate when pressured (22.4%) and ranks inside the top 10 among all qualifying pass-catchers in that situation this season.

By Mason Cameron Jan 12, 2026 8:26 am EST
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Parker Washington profiles as a strong play for Jacksonville, given his recent surge in target share and production and a Bills coverage unit that looks far more vulnerable to receivers than surface stats suggest. On the San Francisco side, fading George Kittle makes sense against an Eagles defense that has consistently shut down tight ends, especially with Kittle still operating close to the line of scrimmage and limited coming off an ankle injury.

By Mason Cameron Jan 11, 2026 8:56 am EST
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Tetairoa McMillan profiles as a strong target-volume play for Carolina, as game script should push the Panthers toward a pass-heavy approach and McMillan has consistently drawn looks when Bryce Young is under pressure, making Over 4.5 receptions (+110) appealing. Meanwhile, Jordan Love is well-positioned to clear Over 215.5 passing yards (-120), facing a Bears defense that struggles to generate pressure and has allowed frequent downfield production when coverage breaks down.

By Mason Cameron Jan 10, 2026 11:26 am EST
bet-nfl-wild-card-playoffs-same-game-parlays-to-target

Our SGP picks are built around data-driven narratives — how a matchup is likely to unfold, which players are best positioned to benefit and where the edges lie.

By Judah Fortgang Jan 10, 2026 10:47 am EST
bet-nfl-wild-card-weekend-betting-picks-best-player-team-matchups-to-target

Jordan Love has thrived when defenses make coverage mistakes, and his matchup benefits from a defense that struggles to sustain perfect coverage. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud has consistently punished man coverage, a strength that aligns well against a Steelers defense leaning heavily on those looks.

By Judah Fortgang Jan 10, 2026 10:22 am EST
bet-nfl-wild-card-weekend-betting-notebook-2025-2026

Ben Linsey provides data-driven, contextual betting notes for both sides of the ball for every wild-card game.

By Ben Linsey Jan 9, 2026 2:33 pm EST
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The Houston Texans travel to face the Pittsburgh Steelers in Pittsburgh, Pa., on Monday, Jan. 12, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. on ESPN.

By Mark Chichester Jan 6, 2026 6:30 am EST Houston Texans Pittsburgh Steelers
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The Los Angeles Chargers travel to face the New England Patriots in Foxborough, Mass., on Sunday, Jan. 11, with kickoff set for 8:00 p.m. on NBC.

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The San Francisco 49ers travel to face the Philadelphia Eagles in Philadelphia, Pa., on Sunday, Jan. 11, with kickoff set for 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX.

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The Buffalo Bills travel to face the Jacksonville Jaguars in Jacksonville, Fla. on Sunday, Jan. 11, with kickoff set for 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.

By Mark Chichester Jan 6, 2026 5:45 am EST Jacksonville Jaguars Buffalo Bills
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