- J.K. Dobbins' rushing upside: The Denver Broncos lead the NFL with a 55.8% perfectly blocked run rate, creating a favorable matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers.
- Houston's coverage advantage: The Texans have played perfect coverage on a league-high 52.2% of dropbacks, while Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward has struggled against those looks.
- Two betting opportunities: The analysis targets Dobbins' rushing-yardage props and alternate lines, along with Ward unders and Tennessee team total unders.
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Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works still shape discussions and influence analysis, this piece focuses on how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and on uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.
Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the markets most suited to a given thesis or angle.
Broncos RB J.K. Dobbins has not produced explosive runs…yet
According to previous PFF research, one of the most effective plays in football is the perfectly blocked run — a rushing attempt in which every offensive lineman executes his assignment without earning a negative run-blocking grade.
Through four weeks, no team has generated those opportunities more consistently than the Denver Broncos. Their 55.8% perfectly blocked run rate leads the NFL, and this week’s matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers presents an opportunity to capitalize on that advantage.
The Chargers have allowed a perfectly blocked run rate of 43.2%, ranking 26th in the league. On those plays, Los Angeles has surrendered 0.285 expected points added (EPA) per rush, ranking 24th. In other words, Denver’s greatest strength in the running game aligns with an area in which the Chargers have struggled defensively.
For Dobbins, the opportunity is particularly intriguing. His rate of perfectly blocked runs has remained largely unchanged from last season, but the explosive production has yet to follow. On 18 perfectly blocked carries this season, Dobbins has averaged just 3.78 yards per attempt and generated -0.083 EPA per rush, 47th among 51 qualifying running backs.
The sample is admittedly small, especially compared with his 60 perfectly blocked carries across 10 games last season. Nevertheless, the difference in production is striking. On those same opportunities in Denver’s offense a year ago, Dobbins averaged 7.48 yards per carry and generated 0.212 EPA per rush. Across the 2020-25 seasons, he produced 0.368 EPA per rush when his offensive line delivered a perfectly blocked run.
The most compelling part of the comparison is where the decline has occurred. On runs that were not perfectly blocked, Dobbins averaged 3.30 yards per carry and -0.165 EPA per rush last season. This year, those figures stand at 3.32 yards per carry and -0.202 EPA per rush.
This matchup offers an appealing opportunity for production to materialize. The Broncos enter as favorites by more than a field goal, giving them a favorable game script against a Chargers defense that has struggled to prevent perfectly blocked runs and explosive rushing gains.
If Denver can establish its running game early, the benefits could extend beyond Dobbins’ individual production. A more effective rushing attack can create favorable down-and-distance situations, improve passing efficiency and help the Broncos control the game if they build an early lead.
The combination of elite run-blocking execution, Dobbins’ historical production on those opportunities and a favorable defensive matchup makes this an attractive spot for a rushing breakout.
Betting tips: I’ll be targeting Dobbins’ rushing-yardage prop and alternate lines, along with Denver alternate lines and same-game parlays.
Why Titans QB Cam Ward might struggle vs. Houston Texans coverage
As we detailed in our study of perfectly covered plays, coverage operates as a weak-link system, where one defender losing his assignment can compromise the entire play by leaving an open receiver for the offense to exploit. On the flip side, when every defender in coverage holds up, the offense's chances of success become extremely low, particularly against quarterbacks who struggle to create and fit passes into tight coverage windows.
The Texans, despite their 0-4 record, have maintained a terrific underlying defense, playing perfect coverage on a league-best 52.2% of dropbacks through four weeks, well above the league average of approximately 40%.
The chart above shows Ward's EPA against perfect coverage versus imperfect coverage. Only Jalen Hurts has been worse than Ward on plays featuring perfect coverage. For a quarterback who has already struggled mightily overall, the splits become even worse in this segment of the matchup.
Further, the area where Houston has been vulnerable is its tendency to give up deep passes and explosive plays (fourth-worst explosive play rate). However, Ward ranks dead last in EPA on deep passes, losing nearly 0.8 expected points per attempt.
Betting tips: I'll be targeting Ward unders, Titans team total unders and Houston to benefit from increased play volume due to short Tennessee drives.
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