- Cody White's favorable matchup: The Raiders wide receiver has earned a 35% target share against single coverage, which the Patriots have played on nearly 45% of their defensive snaps.
- Roman Wilson's receiving upside: The Steelers wide receiver draws a Colts defense that frequently plays man coverage, creating opportunities for Wilson and quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
- Jacksonville's rushing opportunity: The Eagles rank in the bottom five in rushing success rate and EPA allowed, supporting same-game parlay builds featuring Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez Jr.
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White steps into new WR2 role and excels vs. Patriots' single coverage
The Patriots have played single coverage at a top-five rate this season, doing so on nearly 45% of their defensive snaps. And even with several cornerbacks unavailable, New England continued to play single coverage at a high rate last week.
Enter Cody White, who is quietly earning a significant role in the Raiders' offense. White ran the second-most routes among Raiders wide receivers last week, nearly doubling his total routes run over the previous three weeks. With Jalen Nailor likely out for this game, White should be the clear WR2 behind Tre Tucker.
White has also been terrific against the single coverage New England runs, commanding a 35% target share and earning an 85th-percentile grade at the catch point. He also ranks among the league leaders in yards per route run against single coverage, leading the Raiders by a wide margin in that category.
SGP Build 1: 13.5-1
- QB Kirk Cousins, Las Vegas Raiders: 260-plus passing yards
- WR Cody White, Las Vegas Raiders: 50-plus receiving yards
SGP Build 2: 110-1
- QB Kirk Cousins, Las Vegas Raiders: 260-plus passing yards
- WR Cody White, Las Vegas Raiders: 50-plus receiving yards
- WR Cody White, Las Vegas Raiders: Anytime touchdown
- Las Vegas Raiders: Moneyline
Aaron Rodgers leans on Roman Wilson in big passing day
The Colts' pass defense has gotten off to a rough start, ranking near the bottom of the league in EPA allowed, success rate allowed, yards allowed per dropback and pressure rate. You name it, and the team has struggled in pass defense. In particular, the Colts have played man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL this season, doing so on nearly 35% of plays, the eighth-highest rate in the league.
Man coverage has been where Roman Wilson has shined, ranking around the 75th percentile in targets earned and nearly the 80th percentile in yards per route run against man coverage.
With Michael Pittman Jr. out, Wilson should see a healthy dose of playing time again, particularly in the slot, where he has run 63% of his routes. That should mean plenty of man-to-man matchups with Justin Walley, who is allowing a whopping 3.03 yards per route run in man coverage.
The Steelers have been the fourth-most pass-heavy team relative to expectation and should be airing it out plenty in this matchup, with Wilson's ability to win against man coverage likely playing a significant role in Rodgers having a big day.
SGP Build: 24-1
- QB Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers: 270-plus passing yards
- WR Roman Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers: 80-plus receiving yards
- Pittsburgh Steelers: -2.5
Increased play volume allows Jaguars to run over Eagles
The Eagles' run defense has quietly been a train wreck early this season, ranking in the bottom five in both rushing success rate allowed and rushing EPA allowed, as shown in the bottom-left corner of the chart. The market is likely pricing in this information, albeit perhaps a bit slower to adjust.
But where the value arises is in the potential increase in play volume relative to what Jacksonville has seen this year. The Jaguars have run the third-fewest plays in the NFL, including two absolute blowouts and some unusual game scripts. Meanwhile, the Eagles have allowed their opponents to run an additional 10 plays per game, averaging 66 defensive snaps.
Much of this is a function of an Eagles offense that ranks third-worst in series success rate and has a 36.6% three-and-out rate, the second-worst mark in the NFL. With potentially their top two wide receivers and top two running backs unavailable — not to mention Lane Johnson‘s retirement — there is good reason to expect this trend to continue in this matchup and for play volume to accumulate on Jacksonville's side.
The Jaguars have also been one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL when leading, which should leave plenty of opportunities for multiple players to take advantage of this struggling Eagles run defense.
SGP Build 1: Approximately 22-1
- RB Bhayshul Tuten, Jacksonville Jaguars: 100-plus rushing yards
- RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars: 50-plus rushing yards
SGP Build 2: 50-1
- RB Bhayshul Tuten, Jacksonville Jaguars: 100-plus rushing yards
- RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars: 50-plus rushing yards
- RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars: Anytime touchdown
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