Judah Fortgang

Jarrett Stidham steps into a Denver offense that leads the NFL in perfect block rate, a key factor given his history of outperforming expectations when protected in a pass-heavy game script. In a separate matchup, the Rams’ shift toward 11 personnel has elevated Jordan Whittington into a consistent slot role, setting him up for steady volume against a Seahawks defense that limits perimeter receivers but allows production over the middle.

Anytime touchdown bets are among the most popular markets in football, but they are often driven more by guesswork than data. PFF’s new First Touchdown Finder is designed to change that, using early-game efficiency, player usage and matchup context to identify the most actionable scoring opportunities each week.

One long-shot angle worth targeting pairs Drake Maye’s downfield efficiency with Demario Douglas’ separation and explosive profile, making a bet like Maye over his passing yards alongside Douglas clearing a modest yardage threshold an intriguing upside play. On the other side, if New England’s pass game forces Houston into a negative script, Xavier Hutchinson’s expanded role without Nico Collins sets him up as the most likely Texans receiver to benefit from increased volume.

Drake Maye’s league-best deep passing efficiency lines up perfectly against a Texans defense that consistently invites shots downfield, while New England’s man-heavy, high-disruption defense attacks C.J. Stroud’s well-documented struggles versus pressure and man coverage — issues compounded by Houston’s injuries at wide receiver.

The Bills’ passing game faces a tough matchup against a Broncos defense that plays man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league and fields three above-average corners. Meanwhile,Matthew Stafford draws a Bears defense that ranks bottom-five in disruption, setting up an ideal spot for him to thrive from clean pockets.

Our SGP picks are built around data-driven narratives — how a matchup is likely to unfold, which players are best positioned to benefit and where the edges lie.

Jordan Love has thrived when defenses make coverage mistakes, and his matchup benefits from a defense that struggles to sustain perfect coverage. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud has consistently punished man coverage, a strength that aligns well against a Steelers defense leaning heavily on those looks.

A contest between the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars is among the wild-card games that present early betting value.

The Raiders, Dolphins and Jaguars all profile as strong passing-game targets this week. Las Vegas draws a Giants defense bleeding explosive plays, Miami faces a Buccaneers unit that continues to funnel and struggle against the pass, and Jacksonville gets a Colts secondary that has been one of the league’s weakest at producing perfect coverage. Each matchup creates clear paths to ceiling outcomes, making all three spots attractive to attack.

Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.

Anytime touchdown bets are always a fan favorite — but instead of guessing, you can lean on the new PFF Player Prop Tool to separate signal from noise.

The Saints defense has quietly emerged as one of the NFL’s most dominant units, and the market has been slow to catch up. With New Orleans ramping up its blitz rate and Cam Ward struggling both under pressure and in obvious passing situations, the matchup sets up as a difficult one for a Titans offense likely forced to chase points.

A contest between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Miami Dolphins is among the Week 17 games that present early betting value.

Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.

Jacksonville’s ability to generate pressure with four-man rushes puts the Broncos offense in a tough spot, as Bo Nix has struggled badly when defenses don’t blitz — a direct clash with the Jaguars’ biggest defensive strength. On the other side, Trevor Lawrence’s recent shift toward aggressive downfield passing lines up perfectly against a Denver defense that allows one of the league’s highest deep-attempt rates.

Our top SGP picks for Week 16, each tied to a clear story the data suggests could play out.

Anytime touchdown bets are always a fan favorite — but instead of guessing, you can lean on the new PFF Player Prop Tool to separate signal from noise.

A contest between the San Francisco 49ers and Indianapolis Colts is among the Week 16 games that present early betting value.

This week’s SGP targets are built around quarterbacks attacking very specific defensive weaknesses. Shedeur Sanders and Isaiah Bond line up to punish Chicago’s struggles against the deep ball, Jaylen Waddle draws a man-heavy Steelers defense that plays directly into his elite separation profile, and C.J. Stroud gets a rare low-disruption matchup against Arizona that allows him to be aggressive downfield — creating multiple paths to high-upside, pass-driven game scripts.