- TE Jake Ferguson draws a favorable matchup: Tampa Bay has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends, supporting Ferguson's 25-plus receiving yards selection.
- Javonte Williams offers receiving value: The Cowboys running back has exceeded 14.5 receiving yards in three of four games, while Tampa Bay has allowed the third-most receptions to running backs.
- George Pickens and Chris Godwin round out the parlay: Pickens draws a favorable cornerback matchup for an anytime touchdown, while Godwin's six targets in Jalon Daniels' lone start support the four-reception selection.
Click here to subscribe to PFF+ Annual — $99.99 a year (just $8.33 a month) billed annually
Just one more Drake London catch was all we needed to cash the +900 Monday Night Football same-game parlay. Tonight, we trust the process and look to bounce back with the +1100 parlay.
The Dallas Cowboys offense has arguably been the most explosive unit in the NFL to start the season. Dallas has put points on the board at the league's highest rate, scoring on 61% of its drives. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, on the other hand, have lost four straight one-score games, and rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels is getting the nod under center again.
Leg 1: TE Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys: 25+ receiving yards (-145)
The Buccaneers have struggled in coverage this season, allowing the sixth-most yards to tight ends. Tampa Bay’s linebackers and safeties have been targeted 51 times and allowed 42 catches this season, making this a perfect week to target Jake Ferguson props.
Ferguson has gone over this line once this season but came up just two yards short in another game. Against a Tampa Bay defense that has struggled in coverage, over 25 yards feels like a low line for one of Dak Prescott’s favorite weapons.
Leg 2: RB Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys: Over 14.5 receiving yards (-119)
Williams has been a consistent part of Dallas’ passing attack to start the season. He has 15 catches through four games and has topped 14.5 receiving yards in three. Tampa Bay also offers an encouraging matchup, allowing the seventh-most receiving yards (161) to running backs and the third-most receptions (25).
With yards difficult to find on the ground against Tampa Bay’s front, which has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards in 2026, Dallas could lean on Williams in the short passing game. Given his receiving usage and the matchup, 15 yards is a reasonable target.
Leg 3: WR George Pickens, Dallas Cowboys: Anytime Touchdown (+120)
On Thursday night, the PFF Matchup Chart gives Pickens a “Good” matchup against Buccaneers cornerbacks Zyon McCollum and Jacob Parrish. Through four games, he has yet to find the end zone, but a pass interference penalty by Kamari Lassiter in the end zone last week is the only reason that's the case.
Pickens ranks fifth among wide receivers with 25 red-zone targets since joining Dallas, making this a good spot for him to find the end zone for the first time this season.
Leg 4: WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4+ receptions (-117)
There is not a large sample size to work with when it comes to who Jalon Daniels likes to target. In his lone start, Chris Godwin received six targets with an average depth of target of just 0.3 yards.
With a backup quarterback under center and a negative game script expected as 8.5-point underdogs, the Buccaneers could lean on quick, easy throws to generate momentum in the passing game. Godwin should have opportunities to pick up some easy receptions, especially if Tampa Bay is playing from behind.
© 2026 PFF - all rights reserved.