- Jahmyr Gibbs‘ goal-line dominance: The Detroit Lions running back has handled 80% of the team's carries inside the 5-yard line and scored five rushing touchdowns through four games.
- Ashton Jeanty‘s touchdown opportunity: The Las Vegas Raiders running back has handled all six of the team's carries inside the 5-yard line but has yet to score a rushing touchdown.
- Garrett Wilson's man-coverage advantage: The New York Jets wide receiver has earned targets on 34.5% of his routes against man coverage, averaging 4.17 yards per route run.
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RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
Gibbs remains as reliable as ever, and he gets an Arizona run defense that has struggled to keep running backs out of the end zone. The Cardinals allowed 18 rushing touchdowns last season and have surrendered three more through four games in 2026.
Gibbs has handled 80% of the Lions’ carries inside the 5-yard line this season, converting four into touchdowns. He has five rushing touchdowns through four weeks, tied for second in the NFL, along with two receiving scores. He has also been targeted on 26.0% of his 100 routes, ranking ninth among 65 qualifying running backs. So, he has multiple ways to deliver in this matchup.
With Detroit a 5.5-point favorite in a game with a 54.5-point total, tied for the highest on the slate, there’s little reason to overthink Gibbs in this spot. He’s well-positioned to find the end zone again.
RB Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders
New England has already allowed four rushing touchdowns through four games and ranks 30th in rushing EPA allowed this season.
Jeanty has handled all six of the Raiders’ carries inside the 5-yard line this season but has yet to convert one into a touchdown. He has still found the end zone twice as a receiver and has been targeted on 25.5% of his 94 routes, ranking 12th among 65 qualifying running backs.
The goal-line role already belongs to Jeanty, but the rushing touchdowns haven't followed. That creates an opportunity to capitalize on his usage before the production catches up. With the ability to score both on the ground and through the air, Jeanty has an excellent opportunity to find the end zone in this matchup.
WR Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
Cleveland has played man coverage and single coverage at the highest rates in the NFL so far this season. Wilson has averaged 2.27 yards per route run across 119 routes, ranking 28th among 138 qualifying wide receivers. Against man coverage, though, his target rate jumps to 34.5%, while his 4.17 yards per route run ranks second.
With several Jets playmakers still dealing with injuries, including AD Mitchell and Breece Hall, fewer players are competing for opportunities, particularly near the goal line. Wilson should maintain his massive target share in this matchup.
Always a threat to score from anywhere on the field, Wilson is well-positioned to find the end zone against Cleveland.
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