- Penix and Dotson could exploit San Francisco's coverage: Jahan Dotson has averaged 3.2 yards per route run against single-high coverage, which the 49ers use at the NFL's fifth-highest rate.
- McCarthy offers upside against Houston: The Texans rank 21st in passing EPA allowed and have surrendered the seventh-highest explosive play rate, creating an opportunity for J.J. McCarthy to attack downfield.
- Omar Cooper Jr. could continue his breakout: The Jets receiver has impressed with his separation and yards-per-route-run production, setting up a favorable matchup against Miami's struggling pass defense.
Penix and Dotson continue their connection in big passing day
The 49ers have been one of the NFL’s heaviest users of single-high coverage, playing it at the league's fifth-highest rate.
That sets up perfectly for Jahan Dotson, who has emerged as the Falcons’ No. 2 wide receiver over the past month. He has averaged a 75% snap share during that stretch and ran a route on 92% of passing plays last week.
As the data shows, Dotson has been an above-average separator against single-high coverage, turning those opportunities into an exceptional 3.2 yards per route run, one of the best marks in the NFL.
Drake London should produce as well, but for Michael Penix Jr. to have a truly big passing day, he’ll likely need a secondary receiver to step up. He now has a consistent No. 2 option in Dotson, who happens to excel against the coverage shell San Francisco prefers.
Same-game parlay: 47-1
- QB Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons: 280-plus passing yards
- WR Jahan Dotson, Atlanta Falcons: 80-plus receiving yards and a touchdown
J.J. McCarthy launches deep bombs for a big passing day (and an upset win)
The Texans have a reputation for fielding one of the NFL’s best defenses, having ranked among the league’s elite in nearly every passing metric in recent years. But this season has been different. Houston ranks 19th in yards allowed per dropback and 21st in passing EPA allowed.
Schematically, this defense has consistently allowed deep throws, though its rate this year is below the league average. The difference is that when opponents do attack downfield, they’re finding success. Houston ranks among the league’s worst in deep EPA allowed and has surrendered the seventh-highest explosive play rate. Making matters worse, the Texans will be without slot defender Jalen Pitre and safety Reed Blankenship.
On the Giants’ side, the sample size with McCarthy is small, but he has shown a willingness to attack downfield, ranking seventh in deep passing rate. His EPA on deep throws has also been relatively strong compared with the rest of his passing production.
Of course, McCarthy attempted just 21 passes last week while playing from behind, and he was effective throwing deep. But with such a limited sample, I’m not looking to anchor the play to that performance.
Instead, this bet is based on a Texans defense that appears overvalued and potentially more vulnerable than the market suggests, facing a quarterback who likes to throw deep and has shown some early success doing so. If the Giants can move the ball through the air and exceed expectations, they also offer value on the moneyline.
Same-game parlay: 25-1
- QB J.J. McCarthy, New York Giants: 280-plus passing yards
- New York Giants: Moneyline
Omar Cooper Jr. continues his breakout against Miami
We don’t have a particularly large sample of Omar Cooper Jr. in the NFL, but boy, has that small sample been impressive. Between the injury and limited playing time, there may be some value here.
Cooper sits at the extreme top right of the chart, leading the league in separation rate and translating that into one of the NFL’s best yards-per-route-run marks, albeit on a limited sample. Returning from injury last week, he played a healthy 80% of the offensive snaps and delivered another dominant performance.
With Adonai Mitchell back, Cooper’s route participation may take a step back. However, the Jets could lean heavily on 11 personnel, and Cooper might simply be too good to take off the field regardless.
Against a terrible Miami pass defense, this is a matchup in which I expect the Jets to have plenty of success through the air. Much of that production could flow through Cooper, a young receiver who has all the makings of a potential star, even if the sample size isn't yet large enough for the market to fully price in his upside.
Same-game parlay: 45-1
- QB Geno Smith, New York Jets: 275-plus passing yards
- WR Omar Cooper Jr., New York Jets: 80-plus receiving yards
- New York Jets: -4.5 alternate spread
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