- Carnell Tate draws a favorable coverage matchup: The Tennessee Titans receiver has earned a 36% target rate and averaged 2.06 yards per route run against single coverage, which Indianapolis uses on nearly half its defensive snaps.
- Tennessee's passing upside drives a 30-1 parlay: The proposed same-game parlay combines Cam Ward for 250-plus passing yards, Tate for 80-plus receiving yards and a Titans moneyline victory.
- Green Bay's outside-zone rushing attack creates an opportunity: The Cowboys allow an NFL-worst 6.0 yards per carry on outside-zone runs, supporting a 25-1 parlay built around MarShawn Lloyd reaching 100 rushing yards and the Packers covering a 6.5-point spread.
Carnell Tate‘s success against single coverage creates an opportunity against the Colts
The Colts' pass defense has struggled this season, ranking in the bottom 10 in EPA per play and, more relevant for our purposes, third-worst in yards per attempt allowed. Indianapolis has also played single coverage on nearly 50% of its defensive snaps, the third-highest rate in the NFL.
Against single coverage, targets tend to be more predictable and consistent than against pure zone coverage, where the picture is more ambiguous.
Against single coverage, Carnell Tate has emerged as the Titans' clear top receiving option, ranking among the best wide receivers in the NFL at creating separation. The result is a 36% target rate and a robust 2.06 yards per route run on those plays.
Quarterback Cam Ward has not played well so far, but this is a Colts defense against which opposing quarterbacks have recorded season-best performances in passing yardage and efficiency more often than not. Put differently, opposing quarterbacks frequently have their best games against Indianapolis, which offers a window of hope.
And it's not as though we're buying high here, given that the Titans enter as seven-point underdogs and Ward's passing yardage line sits in the low 200s.
And if the Titans are going to win through the air, their success will likely run through Tate. If Tennessee finds success in the passing game, that would be a significant departure from market expectations, which is where the value lies.
SGP build: 30-1
- QB Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans: 250+ passing yards
- WR Carnell Tate, Tennessee Titans: 80+ receiving yards
- Tennessee Titans: Moneyline
The Packers' improved outside-zone rushing attack creates an opportunity against Dallas
MarShawn Lloyd has struggled overall this season behind a Packers offensive line decimated by injuries. But for the first time all season, Lloyd was the clear-cut lead back last week, outcarrying Pierre Strong 10-4 while the game was still within reach.
And he has a couple of factors working in his favor in this matchup against the Cowboys. Over the first three weeks of the season, the Packers had a 25% perfect run-blocking rate (last in the NFL and 10 percentage points below league average). That number has increased to 45% over the past two weeks as the team has leaned more heavily into outside-zone concepts.
Last week, in particular, the Packers relied heavily on outside zone and had their most efficient day running the football by far.
All season, Lloyd has been solid in this area, posting a rushing success rate above league average (compared to Kaleb Johnson, who has struggled in the same backfield).
The Cowboys have struggled against the run overall, but especially against outside-zone concepts. Dallas ranks last in the NFL, allowing 6.0 yards per carry on those runs, and third-worst in both EPA per rush and rushing success rate allowed.
If the Packers continue leaning into outside zone, this is an offense that could thrive on the ground. And, of course, rushing yards are highly correlated with winning. If Lloyd runs effectively, and Green Bay takes advantage of a favorable passing matchup, this has all the makings of a game the Packers could win by a comfortable margin.
SGP build: 25-1
- RB MarShawn Lloyd, Green Bay Packers: 100+ rushing yards
- Green Bay Packers: -6.5
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