- Patrick Mahomes can counter Seattle's disruption: The Seahawks lead the NFL with a 61.9% disruption rate, but Mahomes ranks in the top five in EPA against disruption, supporting a Chiefs spread bet.
- Dallas' pass defense is improving: Since Joey Porter Jr. arrived, the Cowboys have recorded a 48.7% perfect coverage rate and a 58.7% disruption rate, making Dallas alternate spreads appealing.
- Philadelphia's offense faces significant challenges: The Eagles rank fourth worst in perfect block rate, while Tanner McKee has struggled against disruption, supporting Eagles team total unders.
Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works still shape discussions and influence analysis, this piece focuses on how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and on uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.
Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the markets most suited to a given thesis or angle.
Patrick Mahomes’ ability to create can mitigate Seattle’s disruption
PFF has studied how quarterback traits interact with different defensive units and matchups. A quarterback’s ability to scramble and extend plays can mitigate a defense’s advantage more effectively than a less mobile quarterback who struggles to create outside of structure.
Seattle has done a terrific job generating disruption through six weeks, ranking first in the NFL with a 61.9% disruption rate. Disruption occurs when pressure forces a quarterback off his read and/or every defender executes his coverage assignment. The Seahawks rank first in generating disruption through pressure and fourth in perfect coverage rate.
But Mahomes is well-equipped to overcome that disruption. He ranks in the top five in EPA against disruption and remains among the league’s best at creating plays. While Mahomes isn’t running the ball as often as he did in previous seasons, he still uses his mobility to extend plays, create throwing opportunities and succeed against disruptive defenses.
With so much of the market’s valuation of Seattle rightly driven by its defense, Mahomes’ skill set gives Kansas City a strong chance to move the ball against this unit.
Betting tips: I’ll be backing the Chiefs against the spread, exploring alternate spreads and building same-game parlays around Mahomes and Kansas City’s offense generating plenty of yardage.
Can Philly Take Advantage of the Cowboys’ Defense?
As we detailed in our study of perfectly covered plays, coverage operates as a weak-link system. When every defender holds up, an offense’s chances of success drop sharply, especially against quarterbacks who struggle to fit the ball into tight windows and offensive lines that don’t give quarterbacks enough time to execute.
Dallas ranks last in the NFL in passing EPA allowed per play and third worst in yards per attempt allowed through six weeks, with a 36.2% perfect coverage rate (31st) and a 48.3% disruption rate (28th). But as we detailed in Stats & Angles this week, things have looked different for the Cowboys’ pass defense with Joey Porter Jr. in the lineup.
With a cornerback who can lock down a wide receiver and play press coverage — an area where Porter has been the NFL’s best at preventing separation — the complexion of Dallas’ defense has changed. Since Porter arrived, the Cowboys have posted a 48.7% perfect coverage rate and a 58.7% disruption rate. With Porter in the lineup, Dallas may no longer be the bottom-three pass defense the market projects.
What’s more, I’m not sold on the Eagles’ ability to avoid disruption themselves and, therefore, take advantage of the Cowboys’ defense. Philadelphia ranks fourth worst in perfect block rate and allows quick pressure at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL.
And while the sample size is small for Tanner McKee, he has struggled against disruption throughout his career, particularly against perfect coverage, where he has lost nearly 0.75 EPA per play across his 150 total career dropbacks.
Betting tips: I’ll be targeting Eagles team total unders, Dallas alternate spreads and parlays featuring plenty of sacks and turnovers by Philadelphia’s offense.
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