- Michael Penix Jr. has an opportunity to generate explosive passes: The Atlanta Falcons quarterback leads the NFL in EPA per play on deep throws and faces a Chicago Bears defense that is allowing a league-worst 1.7 EPA per play on those attempts.
- Chicago's defensive approach favors deep passing opportunities: Opponents attempt deep passes against the Bears nearly 13% of the time, the NFL's third-highest rate, while Montez Sweat‘s suspension could further benefit Atlanta's pass protection.
- Jayden Daniels can counter San Francisco's disruptive defense: The Washington Commanders quarterback scrambles on nearly 30% of his plays and ranks third in EPA generated on those plays, supporting the case for Washington's spread and alternate spreads.
Michael Penix Jr. has a favorable matchup for explosive passes against Chicago
PFF once studied the importance of explosive plays to NFL offenses and discovered that the path to success on a given drive often runs through generating an explosive play.
And while Penix hasn't thrown deep often this season, he's been terrific when he does, leading the NFL in EPA per play on deep passes. That number is unlikely to be sustainable over the course of a full season, but he has an ideal matchup against a Chicago defense allowing 1.7 EPA per play on deep passes (last in the NFL).
Opponents are attempting deep passes against the Bears nearly 13% of the time (third-highest rate), largely because of their man-heavy, single-high coverage scheme.
And with the Bears now without edge defender Montez Sweat (suspension), the Falcons' pass protection has an even better chance of holding up and letting Penix throw deep, where he's had plenty of success.
Betting tips: I'll be on Penix alternate lines and same-game parlays built around the Falcons having an explosive day through the air.
Jayden Daniels‘ scrambling ability could neutralize the 49ers' defensive advantage
PFF has also studied how quarterback traits interact with different defensive units and matchups. In that study, we discussed how a quarterback's ability to scramble can mitigate a defensive matchup advantage more effectively than a quarterback who is less mobile.
The 49ers have done a terrific job generating disruption early this season (plays where pressure forces a quarterback off his read and/or every defender executes his coverage assignment), quietly ranking in the NFL's top 10 in that category.
But Daniels is well-suited to handle this matchup as an elite scrambler.
Daniels is scrambling on nearly 30% of his disrupted plays and has produced the third-highest EPA on those plays. Put differently, when a play breaks down and Daniels is on the move — when it's up to the quarterback to make something happen and create — he has been one of the best in the NFL.
Given how frequently he scrambles, it's no wonder his creation rate and performance against disruption consistently rank among the best in the NFL.
With the market coming around to a San Francisco defense that has performed better than expected, I like Washington's chances of moving the ball effectively and outperforming expectations in this matchup.
Betting tips: I'll be on Washington's spread, alternate spreads and same-game parlays involving Daniels and the Commanders' rushing and passing production.
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