Monday Night Football Same-Game Parlay: Bills vs. Rams

  • Davante Adams has a favorable matchup: Buffalo ranks seventh worst in EPA allowed per pass, while the PFF Matchup Chart rates Adams' matchup against the Bills' secondary as Great.
  • Matthew Stafford offers touchdown upside: Buffalo has allowed 10 passing touchdowns through four games, including eight in the red zone, supporting Stafford's three-plus passing touchdowns prop.
  • Buffalo's receiving props round out the parlay: Dalton Kincaid has caught 15 of 19 targets this season, while Keon Coleman could see additional opportunities with DJ Moore sidelined.
Click here to subscribe to PFF+

In a potential Super Bowl preview, the Buffalo Bills travel to SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams enter as 3-point favorites, with the game total set at 54.5.

Los Angeles has the highest-graded defense in the NFL this season, while Buffalo’s offense ranks second in EPA per play, setting up a matchup between two of the league’s best units.

Monday Night Football Same Game Parlay (+750)

Leg 1: WR Davante Adams, Los Angeles Rams: 60+ receiving yards (-126)

The Bills defense has struggled in 2026, ranking seventh-worst in the NFL in EPA per pass. The PFF Matchup Chart also gives Davante Adams a “Great” matchup against Buffalo’s struggling secondary.

Adams has topped 60 receiving yards in 10 of his last 11 games when the game total is above 50 points, putting him in a strong position to clear that mark again.

-0.200.000.200.40EPA / pass play allowed40.0%50.0%60.0%Passing success rate allowedAVGAVG
ARZ
ATL
BLT
BUF
CAR
CHI
CIN
CLV
DAL
DEN
DET
GB
HST
IND
JAX
KC
LAC
LA
LV
MIA
MIN
NE
NO
NYG
NYJ
PHI
PIT
SEA
SF
TB
TEN
WAS
The same teams and metrics are available as a sortable table on the Team Stats tab.
Leg 2: QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 3+ passing touchdowns (+144)

The Bills have allowed the third-most passing touchdowns in the NFL entering Week 5, with eight of their 10 passing touchdowns allowed coming in the red zone. That sets up well for Matthew Stafford, who has thrown the most red-zone touchdown passes in the NFL since the start of the 2025 season. Stafford has also thrown three or more touchdown passes in seven of his last nine games in California.

Click here for the PFF Red-Zone Report
Leg 3: TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills: Over 3.5 receptions (-215)

Kincaid has hauled in 15 of his 19 targets through four games, averaging 3.75 receptions per game while posting an impressive 3.03 yards per route run and a 78.9% catch rate.

With Buffalo dealing with wide receiver injuries and a high-scoring matchup expected, Kincaid is in a strong position to see increased target volume and capitalize on his efficiency in the passing game.

50.00100.00150.00Targeted QB Rating0.001.002.003.00Yards / Route RunAVGAVG
Kelce
LaPorta
Hockenson
Washington
Likely
Johnson
Kincaid
Warren
Kittle
Freiermuth
McBride
Mayer
Schultz
Henry
Andrews
Tremble
Woerner
Gray
Engram
Strange
Fannin Jr.
Dulcich
Loveland
Farrell
Kmet
Kraft
Helm
Otton
Knox
Pitts
Barner
Mundt
Ferguson
The same players and metrics are available as a sortable table on each team's Leaders tab.
Leg 4: WR Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills: 39+ receiving yards (-109)

Coleman saw the second-most targets among Bills players in Week 4 after DJ Moore left with an injury. With Moore out for the Week 5 matchup against the Rams, Coleman should once again see a high target rate when he is on the field.

His 38.5 receiving-yard line feels low in a game where Buffalo could be forced to throw often, with the game total set at 54.5 points.

Subscriptions

Unlock the Fantasy Draft Kit, with Live Draft Assistant, Fantasy Mock Draft Sim, Waiver Wire, Rankings & PFF Grades

$9.99/mo
OR
$99.99/yr