- J.J. McCarthy is set up for success: The Minnesota Vikings coaching staff, skill players and offensive line should put McCarthy in a position for success in his first season as an NFL starter.
- Coen system offers optimism: With Liam Coen as the new head coach, there's hope Trevor Lawrence can mirror Baker Mayfield‘s success within this system, potentially leading to a significant fantasy boost in the 2025 season.
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Estimated reading time: 10 minutes
Each season, most players who lead teams to the fantasy football playoffs are selected early in the draft. However, there are always a few who dominate despite being drafted much later. For example, Baker Mayfield and Bo Nix were selected in the 13th round or later and ended up as top-seven fantasy quarterbacks. The same could be said for Brock Purdy and Jordan Love the year before.
We're identifying three quarterbacks who are being drafted from the 11th round or later and could end up becoming weekly must-start options.
The average draft position listed is from a consensus between ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo! for where the player is picked on average in a 12-team, redraft league.
Last updated: Tuesday, August 12
J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings (ADP: 12.09)
J.J. McCarthy spent three years as a quarterback at Michigan, initially as a backup to Cade McNamara, but he beat out McNamara for the starting job in 2022. He was never a high-volume quarterback due to Michigan’s run-first offense and constantly playing with a lead, but he was great on a per-play basis. He was in the 90th percentile or better in each situation. He improved significantly from his first year as a starter to his second. His dropbacks per game decreased, but his stats still increased thanks to a much higher accuracy rate.
McCarthy similarly never ran the ball too often himself, but he had a very high rate of gaining at least 15 yards or a first down. His speed and athleticism are both above average for an NFL quarterback.
His success at Michigan led the Minnesota Vikings to select McCarthy with the 10th pick of the 2024 NFL Draft after Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Michael Penix Jr. but just before Bo Nix. The Vikings had moved on from Kirk Cousins at quarterback and signed Sam Darnold, who was initially the starter, but the general assumption was that McCarthy would take over either before Week 1 or not long after. However, McCarthy tore his meniscus. He had surgery to repair it and missed his entire rookie year.
While Darnold played well for the Vikings, Minnesota opted not to re-sign him and stick with McCarthy as its starter for the 2025 season. From all reports, McCarthy is looking healthy and should be fully ready to go for the season.
McCarthy joins the Minnesota Vikings offense led by Kevin O’Connell. His offenses have been great for quarterbacks. The Vikings typically run an average-to-high number of plays and are consistently passing the ball at a high rate. Sam Darnold was a top-10 fantasy quarterback last season, Kirk Cousins was in 2022, and in 2023, he was top 10 in points per game. In 2023, after Cousins' injury, Dobbs was a top-12 fantasy quarterback in three of four games he played 100% of his team's offensive snaps, while Nick Mullens was a top-14 fantasy quarterback when he played 100% of the snaps. Both Dobbs and Mullens had weeks as a top-five fantasy quarterback.
McCarthy will be surrounded by a strong receiving group in Minnesota, with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison at wide receiver, T.J. Hockenson at tight end and Aaron Jones Sr. at running back. The Jefferson and Hockenson duo has been around for multiple seasons and is part of the reason the Minnesota Vikings quarterbacks always perform better in fantasy than they do in real-life quarterback rankings. Even if McCarthy struggles like most quarterbacks do in their first year, the supporting cast and coaching staff should be enough to make McCarthy a top-24 fantasy quarterback. There is a chance McCarthy plays better than past Vikings quarterbacks, in which he could be a top-eight option.
The Vikings had an average offensive line in pass protection last season, but there is reason to believe they will be much better this season. Brian O’Neill is the only returning full-time starter, and he was one of the best pass-protecting right tackles last season. Christian Darrisaw had emerged as one of the best young left tackles in the league but missed half the year due to injury. The interior of the line wasn’t great, leading the Vikings to add Donovan Jackson in the first round of the draft in addition to free agents Ryan Kelly and Will Fries from the Indianapolis Colts. All of them should be at least minor upgrades over the 2024 starters.
Every quarterback who is in their first year as a starter with minimal rushing upside is a risk for fantasy football, but the coaching staff and surrounding cast in Minnesota put J.J. McCarthy in a better position to succeed than nearly all other first-year starting quarterbacks of recent seasons. McCarthy should already be considered a starter in superflex leagues and is a great high-upside option as a backup in single-quarterback leagues.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 15.06)
Trevor Lawrence’s fantasy value peaked in 2022, finishing with a career-high 25 passing touchdowns and a career-high five rushing touchdowns. This led him to finish 12th in fantasy points per game. His quality of play improved in 2023, and he dropped back to pass more often. This led to more passing yards, but he threw fewer touchdowns and ran for fewer touchdowns. This helped him finish among the top-18 fantasy quarterbacks more often but among the top-12 fantasy quarterbacks less often, and ultimately decreased his fantasy value.
Lawrence’s fantasy value continued to dip in 2024. His per-game stats are somewhat deceiving, as he had a game with only 10 passing attempts, but he was held under 200 passing yards in five other games. He failed to reach 200 yards only twice in 2023. Two of these games were from a very low passing attempt total, but there was one game where he had 38 attempts and 178 yards. These games largely occurred before Brian Thomas Jr. fully broke out and while Evan Engram was injured.
Lawrence suffered a shoulder injury in Week 9, which he also suffered at the end of 2023. He returned briefly in Week 13, but he suffered a concussion and didn’t return that season. Throughout Lawrence’s last three seasons, he’s been a high-risk, high-reward quarterback. His 1.8 big-time throws per game over the last two seasons are the fourth-most among quarterbacks, but he’s also had one of the highest turnover-worthy throw rates.
Lawrence is learning a new offensive system this year with Liam Coen as his new head coach. One big reason for optimism for Lawrence is how well Baker Mayfield played last season in Coen’s system. Mayfield received a 72.8 passing grade in 2023, which is comparable to Lawrence in recent seasons, and Mayfield’s passing game jumped to 82.4 in 2024. Similarly, his fantasy points per game jumped from 16.7 to 22.5. Lawrence has generally run the ball more often than Mayfield, so there is room for Lawrence’s fantasy production to be even higher.
Lawrence’s time to throw was consistently low during his time under Doug Pederson, but his average depth of target skyrocketed, leading to lower accuracy rates. We should expect his average target depth to decrease considerably. Lawrence’s deep ball accuracy over the last three years was in the bottom quarter of the league, but he finished in the top quarter of the league on short passes. The change in offensive philosophy should be a great asset to his fantasy value.
The Jaguars have largely reworked their receiver room. Jacksonville traded up to the second overall pick for Travis Hunter and signed Dyami Brown to be their field stretcher in free agency. The Jaguars have tried several veteran wide receivers to help Lawrence, but the young duo of Brian Thomas Jr. and Hunter should be the best pair of Lawrence’s career. Jacksonville moved on from Lawrence’s safety net of Evan Engram, but Brenton Strange had a very similar receiving grade last season. Strange is another ascending player who should fill his role respectably.
Trevor Lawrence is a high-upside backup option in single quarterback leagues, and he, at best, can become your usual starter and, at worst, be an adequate fill-in during bye weeks. In superflex leagues, he is a somewhat risky second option.
Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons (ADP: 15.03)
Michael Penix Jr. didn’t see the field until Week 7 in a blowout loss where he threw once. He played again in Week 11 in a different blowout loss, where Penix threw four times. From Weeks 10-15, the Falcons lost four of five games, and their one win was a 15-9 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. Kirk Cousins ranked 22nd in passing grade on the season, which was enough for the coaching staff to choose to bench Cousins in favor of Penix.
Penix completed 18 of 27 passes for 202 yards in a blowout victory over the New York Giants, threw 19 of 35 for 223 yards and a touchdown in an overtime loss to the Washington Commanders and went 21 of 38 for 312 yards and two touchdowns in an overtime loss to the Carolina Panthers. He averaged 15.2 PPR points per game in that time. Penix had eight of his 105 passes dropped, which was the highest drop rate among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts.
While his raw statistics were underwhelming, his big-time throw rate, turnover-worthy play rate and accuracy rate were all excellent. This led to a high 87.6 passing grade. Among quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts, he had the highest positive grade rate, just ahead of Lamar Jackson, and the highest big-time throw rate, just ahead of Josh Allen. While he didn’t have a high turnover-worthy throw rate, Penix earned a high negative grade rate, meaning his zero grade rate was relatively low.
Penix had a very high average depth of target and a high deep target rate, which will probably decrease this season. That will likely lead to more consistent fantasy value. This will contribute to a lower big-time throw rate, but ideally, it means more completed passes, allowing his receivers to do more work after the catch. He was often locked onto his first read, which was primarily Drake London, and that will likely decrease slightly this season.
Penix will be in Zac Robinson’s system for a second straight season. His offense resembled his former team, the Los Angeles Rams, in a lot of ways – outside of run rate, where the Falcons had invested in Bijan Robinson. While we can expect the Falcons to be slightly run-heavy, that balance might shift a little more toward neutral once the team is more comfortable with Penix. He averaged 33 attempts per start, so that might increase by one or two.
Because the offense is similar to Stafford's, it’s fair to compare Penix’s potential to Stafford's. The Rams quarterback was QB11 in points per game in 2021 with 20.4 points per game, as Stafford threw for 4,886 yards and 41 touchdowns. That is one of the better scenarios for Penix given his low rushing potential.
The Falcons kept their offense intact from last season, focusing all of their free agent and draft efforts on defense. The top eight skill players and four of the five offensive linemen remain identical to last season. The one change was at center, where Drew Dalman left in free agency. The Falcons had a top-five team grade on passing plays when ignoring all quarterbacks, meaning this is one of the best supporting casts in the league.
The passing game will continue to focus on Drake London. There is a chance Kyle Pitts may finally step up, while there has also been talk of Darnell Mooney getting more involved. The Falcons' line is better suited for run blocking, but it was among the top 10 in pass-blocking grade. Its continued strong play in pass protection will be critical for Penix. He was in the top 20% of quarterbacks in yards per attempt when there was no pressure or blitz but among the bottom 20% when pressured or blitzed.
Penix is a high-upside QB2 option. While it might be difficult for him to land among the top-12 overall quarterbacks in fantasy points per game, there should be plenty of weeks where he ranks among the top-12 fantasy quarterbacks, so he can be an occasional fantasy starter in single-quarterback leagues. He is a fine option in superflex leagues.
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