Data-backed NFL bets: Washington is a live underdog against Indianapolis in Week 4

• Washington holds an efficiency edge: The Commanders have been slightly better than Indianapolis on both sides of the ball through three weeks by weighted EPA.

• Colts face a difficult rushing matchup: Indianapolis ranks fourth in EPA per play on the ground, but Washington ranks third in EPA per rush allowed.

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Many NFL bettors start with individual markets — spreads, totals or player props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “Which totals stand out this week?” It’s a bottom-up approach: Start with the bet, then decide whether the underlying game script supports it.

In this space, we’ll work in reverse. Each week, we’ll focus on one game and take a top-down approach, starting with the broader picture of how the teams and players are performing and what the data suggests about the matchup. From there, we’ll identify the betting markets that best align with that expected game script.

The goal is to form a view of how the game is likely to unfold first, then find the spreads, totals and props that offer the best ways to bet on that outcome.

A look at the fundamentals

Let us begin, as always, by looking at the team fundamentals to set the frame for our analysis.

Here, we can look at how each team fares in weighted EPA, which slightly downweights high-leverage plays such as turnovers and goal-line plays while also adjusting team strength based on opponent quality.

And through three weeks, Washington has been slightly better than the Colts on both sides of the ball.

However, with this game in London on a neutral field, the market has the Colts as 3.5-point favorites with a 63.5% implied win probability, suggesting a much wider gap between these teams.

Much of that value likely comes from a Colts offense that the market ranks as the 12th best in the NFL, according to Inpredictable (which uses current and lookahead lines to derive team ratings). Some of that likely reflects last season, when the Colts were a top-three offense by virtually any measure before Daniel Jones went down with an Achilles injury. But the offense has since lost two of its three wide receivers from that group, including Alec Pierce, which has all but eliminated the deep passing game.

Without a legitimate downfield threat, the Colts have attempted the fewest deep passes in the NFL. What’s more, Jones has struggled to create outside the pocket since returning from injury. He ranked in the 85th percentile in EPA outside the pocket last season but has fallen to the 20th percentile through three weeks this year.

Matchup Angles

The Colts’ biggest offensive advantage in this matchup comes on the ground, where they rank fourth in EPA per play.

But the Commanders have been stout against the run early this season, ranking third in EPA per rush and sixth in success rate allowed. That doesn’t appear to be simply a function of their opponents, either. None of the three teams Washington has faced ranks in the bottom third of the league in any major rushing category.

Washington has allowed the fewest yards before contact this season while playing with heavy boxes at roughly a league-average rate. That could create plenty of long down-and-distance situations for a Colts offense that runs 5% more often than expected. Jones and Indianapolis have struggled in those spots, converting third-and-long opportunities at a rate 15% below league average.

And if Jayden Daniels remains sidelined, Commanders backup QB Marcus Mariota would draw a favorable matchup. Mariota has faced an above-average rate of disruption pressure this season, but he now faces a Colts defense that has generated the fourth-lowest disruption pressure rate in the NFL.

In a small sample, Mariota has been terrific when kept clean, leading the NFL in EPA per play when not disrupted by pressure. He also excelled in that category last season.

Washington’s offense has been roughly average despite getting little from its ground game, and a matchup with a bottom-five Colts run defense could help there. Given Indianapolis’ inability to consistently generate pressure, I think Washington's offense is mispriced.

Add it all up, and I’m not convinced the Colts have shown enough to warrant being valued as a top offense. They now face a Washington defense that has been excellent at taking away what Indianapolis does best.

With the Colts lacking the downfield passing game to exploit Washington’s biggest weakness, this is an intriguing spot for the Commanders on the moneyline and in the alternate markets.