- Michael Mayer draws a favorable matchup against the Jets: New York blitzes on 52% of defensive plays and ranks 25th in yards per route run allowed to inline tight ends, supporting Mayer's receiving yardage and touchdown props.
- Minnesota's passing game could exploit Detroit's coverage: The Lions have led the NFL in man coverage rate over the past three weeks, creating favorable conditions for Kyler Murray and Jordan Addison.
- The Rams‘ running backs offer a combined rushing angle: Kyren Williams and Blake Corum have excelled on perfectly blocked runs, forming the basis of a 55-1 same-game parlay.
Raiders TE Michael Mayer in for a big day
The Raiders lead the NFL by a wide margin in two-tight-end personnel usage (65%), which has resulted in significant playing time for both Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer. Mayer ran a route on 75% of passing plays last week, slightly above his season average of 70%.
Now, he draws a matchup against a Jets defense that benefits him in several ways. First, New York blitzes 52% of the time, the second-highest rate in the NFL behind Minnesota.
Mayer has excelled when defenses have blitzed Kirk Cousins and the Raiders, ranking among the league’s best tight ends in separation while posting an 85th-percentile mark in yards per route run against blitzing defenses.
The Jets have also struggled to contain inline tight ends, ranking 25th in the NFL in yards per route run allowed to players aligned in that position. Mayer runs nearly all of his routes from an inline alignment, making this an especially favorable matchup. Combine those factors, and Mayer is well-positioned to earn plenty of targets.
The Raiders’ offense should also find success against a Jets defense that ranks second-to-last in PFF pass defense grade over the past month and will be without two of its best defensive linemen, T’Vondre Sweat and David Bailey.
SGP Build: 45-1
- TE Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders: 80-plus receiving yards & anytime touchdown.
Kyler Murray and Jordan Addison feast on man coverage
The Lions have returned to their man-heavy approach in recent weeks, leading the NFL in man coverage rate over the past three weeks. And Kyler Murray has actually performed well against man coverage but has struggled significantly against zone. That gives him a favorable path to success through the air in this matchup.
While Justin Jefferson is well-positioned to take advantage of Detroit’s weaker cornerbacks, Jordan Addison also stands out. Addison has commanded a strong 25% target share while generating separation at one of the highest rates in the NFL against man coverage.
Both of Detroit’s outside cornerbacks have allowed yards-per-coverage-snap marks in the 65th percentile or worse against man coverage, giving Minnesota’s wide receivers favorable individual matchups.
If the Vikings can exploit those advantages through the air, the opportunities could add up quickly. Minnesota’s defense also has the potential to shut down the Lions’ offense, creating additional possessions for the Vikings. That combination makes this a sneaky-good matchup for Minnesota’s passing attack, particularly Addison.
SGP Build: 40-1
- QB Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings: 275-plus passing yards
- WR Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings: 80-plus receiving yards
- Minnesota Vikings: Moneyline
Kyren Williams and Blake Corum: A path to big rushing days
Building off our analysis of the Rams in the matchups column, this is a spot where both running backs can succeed and put up big numbers. We can also take advantage of the inverse correlation between their rushing production, with an opportunity for both to hit their overs.
Both backs have been terrific on perfectly blocked runs, but Corum has been slightly more productive in those situations, with a higher explosive-run rate. While Williams figures to have a slight edge in carries, that is somewhat offset by Corum’s greater likelihood of breaking off an explosive run. Corum also has significantly more breakaway speed than Williams, giving him a better chance of turning those opportunities into long gains.
Ultimately, both backs should have plenty of room to run. For the rushing yards to really pile up for both players, the Rams will either need a heavy volume of carries or highly efficient rushing performances, potentially fueled by a long run from Corum.
SGP Build: 55-1
- RB Blake Corum, Los Angeles Rams: 100-plus rushing yards
- RB Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams: 80-plus rushing yards
- Los Angeles Rams: -6.5 spread
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