- Minnesota's defense presents a difficult matchup for Jared Goff: The Vikings rank first in disruption rate, while Goff has consistently performed better on clean dropbacks than disrupted plays.
- The Rams have a favorable rushing matchup: The Chargers have allowed perfectly blocked runs on nearly 45% of opposing rushing attempts, creating opportunities for Kyren Williams and Blake Corum.
- Player props offer ways to target both matchups: The analysis favors Jared Goff unders and Lions team total unders, alongside rushing prop overs for Williams and Corum.
Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works still shape discussions and influence analysis, this piece focuses on how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and on uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.
Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the markets most suited to a given thesis or angle.
Minnesota's disruption vs. Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff
We often discuss how a quarterback’s traits make him more or less sensitive to certain matchups, particularly because the ability to scramble is closely tied to extending plays and creating opportunities outside of structure.
Year after year, Jared Goff has been one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks when kept clean, but he struggles when facing disruption. He consistently has one of the largest gaps in performance between disrupted and clean dropbacks.
Now, he faces a Minnesota Vikings defense that ranks first in disruption rate, thanks to both a dominant pass rush and a coverage unit that has made the fewest coverage mistakes in the NFL.
What’s more, the Lions rarely get the ball out quickly. Goff ranks 28th in the NFL in quick-pass rate, with relatively few throws coming within 2.5 seconds. Even on those quick throws, Goff ranks in the bottom half of the league in EPA, with nearly all of his production coming on plays lasting longer than 2.5 seconds.
That is precisely the type of offense Minnesota has excelled against. The Vikings have dominated on plays lasting longer than 2.5 seconds, giving their pass rush time to generate pressure while their coverage limits opportunities downfield.
Betting tips: I’ll be targeting the Lions’ team total under, some Vikings bets and Jared Goff player prop unders.
Rams’ running game poised to exploit Chargers’ blocking vulnerabilities
PFF has studied the impact of run blocking on rushing success, finding that perfectly blocked runs are among the most successful plays in football on average.
The Rams have produced perfectly blocked runs at a near-league-average rate this season, with Blake Corum benefiting from them far more often than Kyren Williams. However, both running backs have taken full advantage of those opportunities, ranking near the top of the league in yards per carry on perfectly blocked runs.
Now, they face a Chargers defense that has allowed perfectly blocked runs on nearly 45% of opposing rushing attempts. The Chargers have also been particularly vulnerable on those plays, allowing opposing running backs to exploit the running lanes for significant gains.
Both Los Angeles running backs should have plenty of room to run in this matchup, and each has excelled when given that opportunity. I’ll be targeting overs on both players’ rushing props, alternate lines and same-game parlays built around the Rams dominating this game on the ground.
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