Judah Fortgang

Both spots hinge on disruption and coverage mistakes, and the matchups strongly favor the quarterbacks. Sam Darnold draws an injury-ravaged Colts secondary that struggles to play perfect coverage, while C.J. Stroud faces a Cardinals defense that rarely generates disruption — setting up Seattle and Houston as prime candidates to control their games and cash spreads, alts and SGPs built around offensive dominance.

The market may be underrating this Dallas defense, especially in a matchup that suits the Cowboys offense perfectly. Prescott’s ability to beat pressure contrasts sharply with McCarthy’s tendency to stall drives, giving Dallas a clear path to control the game.

A contest between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Baltimore Ravens is among the Week 15 games that present early betting value.

Cleveland’s defensive dominance sets up a game script where the Browns can flood the Titans with play volume, creating strong correlated value on their offensive props. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes’ ability to mitigate Houston’s pressure makes Xavier Worthy a prime beneficiary against a Texans defense vulnerable to deep shots out of single-high looks.

Caleb Williams’ ability to extend plays and avoid sacks directly counters a Packers defense that relies on quick pressure and top-10 sack conversion to win. Paired with Chicago’s dominant run game, that advantage gives the Bears a stable floor to score points and exploit a Green Bay defense that appears overrated in its current form.

James Cook, Breece Hall and Alec Pierce all draw premium matchups this week, with Cook facing a Bengals defense bleeding production to running backs, Hall taking on a Miami unit vulnerable to backs in the passing game and Pierce matching up with a Jaguars secondary that struggles against outside receivers.

A contest between the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs is among the Week 14 games that present early betting value.

This week’s card leans heavily on matchup edges: AD Mitchell gets a blitz rate he can exploit, Bo Nix faces a Washington defense allergic to disruption, and Demario Douglas draws the man-coverage looks he’s dominated all season. Together, they form a trio of data-backed bets with clear paths to ceiling performances.

Houston’s league-best perfect-coverage rate leaves Daniel Jones in a difficult matchup, especially for a Colts offense that has relied heavily on exploiting coverage mistakes. Meanwhile, Washington’s inability to generate disruption sets up a clean-pocket script for Bo Nix, making Denver’s passing attack and team-total overs strong targets.

The Buccaneers are being priced like an average offense, but their recent form paints a far different picture, with Tampa Bay ranking near the bottom of the league in nearly every offensive metric over the past six weeks. With Jacoby Brissett excelling on deep throws and several matchup angles tilting in Arizona’s favor, the Cardinals are a live underdog against an overvalued Tampa Bay team.

Jahmyr Gibbs enters the week as one of the league’s hottest playmakers, and his expanded receiving role under Dan Campbell gives him multiple paths to find the end zone against Green Bay.

Chicago enters with a high floor on the ground and real reasons to expect more scoring success than the market is giving them credit for against this Eagles defense. Put it all together, and 7 points is simply too many — the Bears are very live to upset an overrated Philadelphia team.

A contest between the Los Angeles Rams and Carolina Panthers is among the Week 13 games that present early betting value.

Drake Maye is set up for an efficient, explosive performance against a Bengals defense leaking big plays and struggling to generate pressure without Trey Hendrickson. At the same time, Detroit’s receivers draw clear matchup edges against the Giants’ corners, positioning the Lions offense for another high-ceiling outing.

Tyler Shough’s aggressive play style — including the second-highest ADOT in the NFL and strong underlying grades — creates real upside as he continues to trend upward week over week. With Atlanta allowing the second-highest yards per attempt over the last five weeks, this is a quietly favorable matchup for both Shough and the Saints offense.

Dallas appears mispriced in this matchup, with Dak Prescott well equipped to counter the tight-window looks that drive most of Philadelphia’s defensive success. On the other side, the Eagles face a tougher challenge than the market suggests, especially without Lane Johnson and against a quietly improving Cowboys pass rush.

A contest between the Seattle Seahawks and Tennessee Titans is among the Week 12 games that present early betting value.

A.J. Brown has been one of the league’s most effective receivers against man coverage, and Jalen Hurts has produced nearly 0.5 EPA per play more when facing man than zone. With Detroit playing heavy man coverage without the personnel to match up, this creates a strong setup for an Eagles passing-focused build featuring Hurts, Brown and Eagles -1.5.

Mahomes has returned to one of the highest scrambling rates in the NFL this year and is producing at his usual level when he takes off. That should lead to plenty of offensive success, making the Chiefs, their team-total overs, alternate lines and Mahomes props appealing in Week 11.

J.J. McCarthy has struggled badly on plays with no disruption, failing to generate positive EPA even when the league baseline is 0.3. With the Vikings defense overrated and Caleb Williams positioned to succeed against the blitz, this matchup is far less favorable for a quarterback who has consistently destroyed too many clean-play opportunities.