Fantasy Football: Quarterback sleepers, breakouts and league winners

• Jalen Hurts should be the first quarterback picked: No other quarterback has the same combination of quality in both the run game and pass.

• Trevor Lawrence was among the league’s best quarterbacks late last season: He was grading similarly to Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen over the second half of 2022.

• Anthony Richardson is the clear top sleeper quarterback: While the fantasy community understands the value of rushing quarterbacks, Richardson's ADP from more casual leagues has yet to catch up.

Estimated reading time: 16 minutes

Want to dominate your fantasy football league this year?
Check out PFF's fantasy tools below:

Fantasy Draft Kit | Fantasy Mock Draft Simulator | Live Draft Assistant
League Sync | Draft Rankings | Cheat Sheets

These league winners, breakout candidates and sleepers are players I believe in relative to ADP. For help on draft strategy, rankings or for more details about other players, check out the rest of my summer content below.

For rankings with better filtering along with auction values, check out our draft rankings page.

Preseason Recaps: Week 2 | Week 1 | Hall of Fame Game

Player Profiles | Depth Charts | 10 tips to win
Rankings: PPR | Half-PPR | Standard | Superflex | Best Ball
Dynasty Rankings: PPR | Rookie | Superflex | Superflex Rookie
Position Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE
Sleepers: Top-10 | QB | RB | WR | TE
League Winners: Top-5 | QB | RB | WR | TE
Breakouts: QB | RB | WR | TE
Position Draft Strategy: QB | RB | WR | TE

 14-Team Draft Strategy: Overall strategy
12-Team Draft Strategy: Overall strategy | Picks 1-3 | Picks 4-6 | Picks 7-9 | Picks 10-12
10-Team Draft Strategy: Overall strategy | Picks 1-3 | Picks 4-7 | Picks 8-10

Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Thursday, August 24

League winners

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: 22.6, From ESPN)

Hurts recorded 25.6 PPR fantasy points per game last season, which was the best among quarterbacks.

• Hurts is the only player in PFF history with a PFF passing and rushing grade above 83 on at least 75 passes and 75 runs in a season.
• He’s known for his rushing ability, and his 0.87 rushing touchdowns per game ranked second among all players regardless of position last season.
• Hurts put up plenty of big plays in the passing game but also limited bad plays. His 2.0% turnover-worthy plays per rate ranked second-best among quarterbacks.
• His competition for the top spot is with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
• Hurts is three years younger than the other two and is more likely to see improvement in his passing than the other two, and the other two are unlikely to improve their rushing.
• He has both more stability and more youth among his top receivers. A.J. Brown (26), DeVonta Smith (24) and Dallas Goedert (28) accounted for 69% of Hurts’ targets last season, and remain at the top of the depth chart.
• Allen’s top target is a 29-year-old Stefon Diggs while two of the top five players in targets are no longer on the roster. 
• Similarly, Mahomes' top target is Travis Kelce (33), and he also lost two of his top five targets.
• The Philadelphia Eagles have a top-10 schedule for quarterbacks during Weeks 15-17 while the Buffalo Bills have the most difficult schedule during this stretch.
• Hurts is typically the third quarterback off the board on ESPN and second at Underdog.
• While every other player in my league winner series is someone who I think could be the top player at their position, Hurts should be the favorite to lead his position fantasy points, but isn’t getting drafted that way.

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears (ADP: 50.9)

A quarterback has run for 132 or more yards 16 times in NFL history. Fields logged three of those games in November and December.

• Fields had 20.5 PPR fantasy points per game, which ranked fifth-most last season. Over half of that production came as a rusher.
• When he threw, it often went for a big play, as 48.4% of his completions gained 10-plus yards over the last two seasons — third-most among quarterbacks.
• Chicago traded for D.J. Moore this offseason, which is arguably the biggest receiver addition any team made this offseason. 
• Moore’s achieved an 85.4 PFF receiving grade over the last four seasons, which is the 20th-best among wide receivers despite sub-par quarterback play.
• The two have already begun turning heads at the start of training camp.
• Fields should also benefit from more general stability at the position. The Bears had seven different wide receivers run at least 70 pass routes, but none of them topped 350.
• Fields should consistently have a top three wide receivers of Moore, Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool this season.
• We have recently seen other quarterbacks have subpar passing seasons, gain a new top wide receiver, and propel them to be better passers.
• This includes Hurts gaining A.J. Brown last season, as well as Tua Tagovailoa gaining Tyreek Hill.
• Fields has the potential to have another elite rushing season. If he makes progress as a passer, he has a shot at the top overall quarterback spot.

DOMINATE FANTASY FOOTBALL & BETTING WITH AI-POWERED DATA & TOOLS TRUSTED BY ALL 32

Unlimited Fantasy League Sync

Fantasy Start/Sit Line-Up Optimizer & Waiver Wire

WR-CB & OL-DL Matchups, PFF Player Grades, & Premium Stats 2.0 Tools

Nathan Jahnkes Rankings - #1 Most Accurate Last 70 Weeks

PFF Best Bets, Player Props, & Power Ranking Tools

NFL Mock Draft Sim with Trades & Draft Grades

Subscribe now

Already have a subscription? Log In