• Stick with a wide receiver in Round 1: The very best options will be off the board, but that shouldn’t stop you from drafting a wide receiver to end Round 1.
• Make running back a team strength: You could end up with two excellent running backs, even after passing on one in Round 1.
• Wait for value at quarterback and tight end: You are unlikely to pick the very best at quarterback or tight end without reaching, but there will still be chances to pick great options.
Estimated reading time: 15 minutes
The perfect draft series takes current ADPs from expert and casual drafts to see who should be available at each pick so that we can make the best decisions come draft time.
For help on other pick numbers, league sizes and rankings, or more details about the players, check out the rest of my summer content below. For rankings with better filtering along with auction values, check out our draft rankings page.
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12-Team Draft Strategy: Overall strategy | Picks 1-3 | Picks 4-6 | Picks 7-9 | Picks 10-12
10-Team Draft Strategy: Overall strategy | Picks 1-3 | Picks 4-7 | Picks 8-10
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Thursday, August 3
Round 1, Picks 8-10: Draft a wide receiver
The top running backs, wide receivers and Travis Kelce are all gone at this point. The top remaining wide receivers won’t be available in Round 2, but the top running backs will be.
There is also the opportunity to find good value at running back in Round 2 and 3, making wide receiver the easy choice here.
Top Target: Stefon Diggs
• Diggs has ranked as a top-seven wide receiver in each of the past three seasons since joining the Bills.
• He’s been excellent on a per-route basis, ranking in the top three in receptions (0.188), touchdowns (0.019) and PPR points (0.553).
• Part of the problem for fantasy purposes is the Bills rotate Diggs too much. He played 80% or more of his team's snaps in only five games last season, and his 573 routes ranked 20th at the position.
• Diggs will turn 30 during the 2023 season, and this offseason the Bills invested in Dalton Kincaid, Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty — all players who could slightly cut into Diggs’ playing time or targets.
• The Bills WR1 probably won’t finish in the top three unless several elite wide receivers suffer injuries, but he’s a safe bet to remain in the top 10.
Possible Targets: CeeDee Lamb, Davante Adams, A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Garrett Wilson
Round 2, Picks 11-13: Draft a running back or A.J. Brown
The prospect of drafting back-to-back wide receivers is tempting, but take the opportunity to grab a top-five fantasy running back in the second round if one is there.
If too many running backs are drafted early and someone like A.J. Brown falls, it’s okay to pivot — you can pick more running backs later.
Top Target: Saquon Barkley
• Barkley turned his career around in 2022 after missing nearly all of 2020 with a torn ACL and struggling mightily in 2021.
• His top-five fantasy finish was partially due to good play but also due to volume. He averaged 82 rushing yards per game and 23.7 pass routes per game, fourth and fifth, respectively, at his position.
• Over the last five seasons, his 25.3 pass routes per game ranks second among the 78 running backs who have played at least 40 games.
• He graded below replacement level as a receiver last year but was among the league’s elite receiving running backs as a rookie. If he can return to that level of play as a receiver, he could be the top fantasy running back this year.
• Fifth-round rookie Eric Gray specializes as a receiver, so Barkley may also see fewer targets in the passing game in 2023.
Possible Targets: Tony Pollard, Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, A.J. Brown, Derrick Henry
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