- Travis Kelce’s time as a top fantasy tight end is now behind us: Still being drafted as a top-six option at his position, there’s reason to be concerned about more decline for Kelce’s fantasy value in 2025.
- Breece Hall faces a difficult battle to resume a near RB1 workload: With a new coaching staff and capable competition, Hall’s high-end RB2 ADP will be difficult value to return if he isn’t able to bounce back to his 2023 form.
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Estimated reading time: 9 minutes
Fantasy football drafts begin to kick off in July, which means that ADP is starting to unfold and show off the early trends of drafters heading into the 2025 season. After diving into Sleeper’s current ADP, several players stand out as overvalued by fantasy managers that we’ll look to avoid at cost for the 2025 season.
RB Breece Hall, New York Jets
- Sleeper ADP: 3.10
- Sleeper position ADP: RB13
- My rank: RB18
After finishing as a top-five fantasy running back in 2023, Hall wasn’t quite able to live up to those expectations in 2024 despite a similar workload and just one fewer game. Hall averaged 17.1 opportunities per game in 2023, which led to him being drafted as a top-five player at his position in the first round of fantasy drafts last season. Hall’s workload of 17.8 opportunities per game was slightly better than in 2023, but his overall production dipped due to a career low in yards per carry (4.2) and rushing grade (68.7), while setting a new career high in fumbles (six).
Because of his 2023 finish and known upside, Hall is still being drafted with relative optimism, despite an entirely new coaching staff and offense heading into 2025. Aaron Glenn and Tanner Engstrand come over from the Detroit Lions, where the offense tended to utilize two running backs in a committee to be deployed by situation. David Montgomery took the bulk of the early down and short-yardage work while Jahmyr Gibbs mixed in on rushing downs and took the bulk of receiving work. This former Lions coaching staff may find it beneficial to utilize the Jets running backs in a similar situation based on the play and strengths of both Hall and second-year back Braelon Allen.
Allen looked like the superior runner last season, outperforming Hall in overall rushing grade and even being more effective in short-yardage situations, where Hall was a bottom-five back in the league, as highlighted in the chart below. Hall isn’t the Jahmyr Gibbs-level talent that can overcome more of a shared workload, especially based on this most recent season and losing out on potential goal-line and early down carries makes him a risky pick at his current ADP. The more reasonably optimistic outlook for Hall is closer to a low-end RB2 if he doesn’t have a significant turnaround in play this season.
Other running backs to target when avoiding Breece Hall:
| Player | Sleeper ADP | My Rank |
| James Cook, BUF | 3.12 | RB13 |
| Alvin Kamara, NO | 4.07 | RB16 |
| Omarion Hampton, LAC | 4.08 | RB15 |
| Kenneth Walker III, SEA | 4.10 | RB10 |
| Joe Mixon, HST | 4.12 | RB17 |
WR Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs
- Sleeper ADP: 5.08
- Sleeper position ADP: WR26
- My rank: WR28
My current ranking of Worthy isn’t far off from where he’s being drafted on Sleeper at the moment, though his underdog ADP is also much more optimistic (WR23). Underdog is a best ball format, however, so Worthy’s big-play upside has more value in that format. That is even baked into my ranking, but WR28 was the highest I could get when considering his potential involvement in 2025 compared to the end of the 2024 season.
The latter half of the 2024 season is a big part of why Worthy is being valued as highly as he currently is. From Weeks 11-18, Worthy became much more involved in the offense with 6.6 targets per game while ranking as the PPR WR25 over that stretch. That continued into the playoffs, where Worthy saw 7.0 targets per game, resulting in the equivalent of 21.9 PPR points per game – a great mark. These were massive improvements from his first nine games of the season, when he ranked as the PPR WR59 and saw just 4.4 targets per game. As a first-round rookie, showing that level of improvement and promise in a high-end offense, it’s understandable why hopes are high for Year 2.
Where the concern for me comes in is that it appears Rashee Rice will be healthy and potentially avoid suspension, and he was not in the lineup at all when Worthy took on this larger role for his breakout second half of last season. The team also brought back Marquise Brown, who didn’t join the team until Week 16 last y,ear so he wasn’t set up to be a consistent part of the offense while Worthy was making his run. The Chiefs also spent an early Day 3 pick on Jalen Royals, who might not be a big piece of target competition, but he is still someone else who can play that underneath role that the Chiefs offense has utilized so much.
The primary area of concern is the return of a healthy Rice, who has consistently been Patrick Mahomes’ top target and heavily involved in the offense whenever he’s available. Rice’s role, specifically, has been that of an underneath option who spends about half his time in the slot – almost identical to how Worthy was utilized while Rice was out last season, and where he found the most fantasy success. With Rice back, the fear is that there’s room for just one player (Rice) to take on that high-end fantasy role, which could relegate Worthy back to being more of an inconsistent deep threat, potentially even sharing that spot with Hollywood Brown. With Rice’s return seeming more and more likely as we get closer to the season, Worthy’s ADP has begun to fall at least a bit from where it was even a month ago (WR21), so ideally his price will fall back in line with more realistic expectations heading into 2025.
Other wide receivers to target when avoiding Xavier Worthy:
| Player | Sleeper ADP | My Rank |
| Tetairoa McMillan, CAR | 6.02 | WR21 |
| Travis Hunter, JAX | 6.03 | WR22 |
| Chris Olave, NO | 6.05 | WR30 |
| Jaylen Waddle, MIA | 6.06 | WR29 |
WR Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
- Sleeper ADP: 3.03
- Sleeper position ADP: WR12
- My rank: WR20
It often takes time to come to grips with a perennial WR1 for fantasy falling outside of that projection, which is why Hill’s WR12 ADP is more optimistic than it likely should be at this point in his career. Understandably, the hope for that high-end WR1 potential is what will draw drafters to him, but the concern and more likely outcome here is that what Hill provided in 2024 is going to be closer to his new norm for 2025.
Hill played all 16 games last season and finished as the PPR WR18, averaging just 13.4 points per game (WR30) as he set new career lows in receiving grade (77.3) and yards per route run (1.75), the latter ranked 42nd at his position. These are numbers more typically accepted around a wide receiver entering his 10th year in the league, now at 31 years old, and will often result in more tempered fantasy football expectations. However, it appears that with Hill, there’s still more than enough hope that he can deliver at an elite level.
Hill was dealing with a wrist injury last season, among others, but didn’t end up missing any time. The more concerning proposition is that Hill’s speed is beginning to drop off, which wouldn’t be unsurprising for a player at this point in his career, but it’s nonetheless concerning considering that so much of Hill’s success over the years has come from his speed. Even with the team trading away Jonnu Smith – a top target from last season – Jaylen Waddle still remains, and he is a likely better candidate to bounce back in 2025 considering where they’re at in their careers. Hill can still be a WR2 for fantasy this year, but it’s best to set expectations closer to that low-end range instead of the high-end where he’s currently being drafted.
Other wide receivers to target when avoiding Tyreek Hill:
| Player | Sleeper ADP | My Rank |
| Tee Higgins, CIN | 3.04 | WR14 |
| Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 3.08 | WR11 |
| Terry McLaurin, WAS | 3.09 | WR17 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr., ARZ | 3.11 | WR13 |
| Rashee Rice, KC | 4.05 | WR15 |
TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
- Sleeper ADP: 7.02
- Sleeper position ADP: TE6
- My rank: TE8
Heading into 2025, Kelce owns each of the more concerning reasons to fade both the previously mentioned Hill and Worthy, as he’s reached the age where decline in play has shown up while Rashee Rice‘s return to the Chiefs offense likely lessens his role. Much like with Hill, letting go of Kelce’s position-leading upside isn’t coming easy for fantasy drafters because the idea of him delivering six overall TE1 fantasy finishes is hard to ignore; however, last year was a prime example that those days are behind him.
Kelce suffered a clear drop-off in his metrics last season, which, like with Hill, isn’t unexpected for a player who will turn 36 years old this season. Kelce finished 2024 with a career-low 71.7 PFF grade in addition to more career lows in receiving grade (72.2), yards per route run (1.49) and yards per reception (9.1). He also came in with fewer than 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since his rookie season, which includes the playoffs, where he played an additional three games last year.
Rice's return to Kansas City’s lineup is a crucial one as Kelce no longer operates as the team’s top down-by-down target with Rice active, as highlighted in the chart below covering nearly all of 2023, including the playoffs, and three full games with Rice last season. Considering Kelce’s decline in play and Rice's return, there’s even more reason to fade Kelce as a potential top-six player at his position. Even as Jonnu Smith falls out of that range with his trade to Pittsburgh, there are still better or more valuable options to consider over the future Hall of Famer in 2025 drafts.
Other tight ends to target when avoiding Travis Kelce:
| Player | Sleeper ADP | My Rank |
| Mark Andrews, BLT | 7.12 | TE6 |
| David Njoku, CLV | 8.07 | TE7 |
| Evan Engram, DEN | 9.03 | TE9 |
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