Fantasy Football ADP Battle: Xavier Worthy vs. Tetairoa McMillan

Xavier Worthy finished his rookie season strong, setting the stage for a promising Year 2: While increased target competition in 2025 presents a challenge, his late-season surge, including a standout playoff performance, offers reason to believe he can build on that momentum.

Tetairoa McMillan is primed to take over as Carolina’s top receiving threat: As the eighth overall pick, McMillan enters a wide-open depth chart and should have every opportunity to establish himself as the go-to option in the Panthers’ passing game from Day 1.

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This fantasy football article series breaks down the toughest draft-day decisions facing fantasy managers, using Underdog’s average draft position (ADP) as a guide. Each installment compares similarly ranked players at the same position, using key stats from previous seasons and contextual factors — including team situation — to identify the better pick.

Today’s matchup features Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy and Carolina Panthers rookie Tetairoa McMillan, as we evaluate which player offers better value at the top of the fourth round in fantasy drafts.

While Worthy enters the season with an NFL role already in place, McMillan has yet to play a professional snap, so all of his data in this comparison, including three-year metrics, comes from his college career at Arizona. Only Worthy’s NFL statistics are used in this analysis.

Xavier Worthy (WR21) vs. Tetairoa McMillan (WR22)

With injuries sidelining both Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown in 2024, Worthy seized the opportunity as a rookie, delivering six top-25 weekly finishes at the position. He peaked during the fantasy playoffs, ranking as the PPR WR10 overall from Weeks 15–17, a strong finish that has elevated expectations heading into his second season.

McMillan, meanwhile, enters the NFL as a top-10 draft pick and the early favorite to lead the Panthers in receiving production in 2025. Carolina’s top fantasy receiver in 2024 was 34-year-old Adam Thielen, who finished as the PPR WR25 in points per game. McMillan should have a clear path to surpass that mark as a rookie.

Involvement in the Offense

Worthy began his rookie season in Kansas City as a rotational deep threat, averaging just 3.8 targets per game over the first five weeks with a 26.3% deep target rate. However, once Rashee Rice was sidelined, Worthy’s role expanded significantly. From that point through the end of the fantasy season, his target volume jumped to 6.7 per game, while his deep target rate dropped to 16.2%, a sign he was being used in a more versatile role across the offense.

McMillan, by contrast, was a high-end target earner at Arizona, averaging over 100 receiving yards per game in back-to-back college seasons. Carolina didn’t have a single player eclipse 81 total targets in 2024, but it’s worth noting that Adam Thielen saw 136 targets with Bryce Young at quarterback in 2023, resulting in a WR17 PPR finish. Now entering his age-34 season and being drafted as the WR70, Thielen is no longer viewed as a major obstacle to McMillan claiming the Alpha role in the Panthers’ passing game.

PRODUCTION AND PERFORMANCE

Worthy’s best performance as a rookie came on the biggest stage — the Super Bowl — where he recorded 157 receiving yards and two touchdowns. While playoff stats aren’t included in the regular-season data above, it’s a notable example of his upward trajectory as the season progressed.

From Weeks 1–10, Worthy averaged just 27.3 receiving yards per game. That figure jumped to 49 yards per game from Week 11 through the end of the regular season, and it soared in the playoffs, where he averaged 95.7 yards, 2.93 yards per route run and earned an 87.8 receiving grade across three postseason games.

Carolina has invested early-round draft capital in wide receivers three times since 2021, but McMillan is by far the most productive and efficient prospect the franchise has added in the past decade, including D.J. Moore in 2018. McMillan’s 3,414 receiving yards and 26 touchdowns over the past three college seasons leave little doubt that he can step in as the Panthers’ primary receiving option from Day 1.

HIGH-VALUE TARGET INVOLVEMENT

Worthy found the end zone nine times as a rookie, including three postseason scores, and finished second on the team in total red-zone touches (23). He added value on the ground as well, recording eight carries, one of which resulted in a rushing touchdown to go along with five red zone receiving touchdowns. His involvement as a rusher gives him a unique edge at the position; his 20 regular-season carries tied Jayden Reed for second-most among wide receivers, trailing only Deebo Samuel (42).

McMillan led Arizona in red zone targets in 2024 and tied for the team lead in red-zone looks since arriving in 2021, converting 14 of his 26 career touchdowns from that area. In Carolina, the top red-zone targets last season were Chuba Hubbard and Diontae Johnson, the latter of whom is no longer on the roster. McMillan is well-positioned to take over as the Panthers’ go-to option near the goal line. Carolina ranked third in red-zone pass rate last season (61.5%), which only boosts the rookie’s touchdown upside heading into 2025.

TEAM PASSING/QUARTERBACK SITUATION

Kansas City has ranked third in regular-season pass rate since 2022 (65.3%), and with Patrick Mahomes under center, there’s little concern about volatility at the quarterback position. Worthy should continue to benefit from playing alongside the two-time league MVP, functioning as both the team’s primary deep threat and its top option on passes behind the line of scrimmage. He led the Chiefs in both categories as a rookie — one of just two players in the league to lead his team in 20-plus-yard targets and targets behind the line of scrimmage, alongside Ja’Marr Chase.

In Carolina, Bryce Young’s early struggles were well documented. From the start of his rookie season in 2023 through Week 7 of 2024, Young was tied for last in passing grade (49.6) among 42 qualifying quarterbacks. However, the second half of 2024 told a different story. From Week 8 through the end of the regular season, Young posted an 83.7 passing grade, the sixth-best in the league, offering renewed optimism that the former No. 1 overall pick is trending in the right direction.

POTENTIAL 2025 TARGET COMPETITION

A major factor in Worthy’s 2024 success was the extended absence of Rashee Rice, which opened the door for a larger target share. With Rice expected to return healthy in 2025, he presents legitimate target competition, particularly in the intermediate areas of the field. Add in Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes’ go-to red-zone threat, and a full season from Marquise Brown, and the Chiefs’ passing game suddenly has far more mouths to feed than it did a year ago.

In Carolina, McMillan faces a much clearer path to volume. His primary competition comes from soon-to-be 35-year-old Adam Thielen and second-year wideout Xavier Legette, who fell well short of expectations as a first-round pick. All signs point to McMillan taking over as the top option in the Panthers’ receiving corps as he looks to assert himself as the new alpha in Carolina.

Xavier Worthy vs. Tetairoa McMillan: Target Maps (2024)

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While the final decision is yours, don’t go into your draft blind. Check out PFF’s latest fantasy football rankings to see exactly where Xavier Worthy, Tetairoa McMillan and the rest of your targets stack up heading into 2025.