Fantasy Football ADP Battle: Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Rashee Rice

Jaxon Smith-Njigba broke out in 2024, but the Seattle Seahawks underwent significant changes this offseason: While he should remain a top target, the arrival of a new quarterback and a reshaped receiving corps introduce more uncertainty heading into 2025.

Rashee Rice will look to put together a full season of elite fantasy production: Rice has delivered high-end results on smaller sample sizes, leading to high-end expectations if he’s healthy (and not suspended) for 2025.

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This fantasy football article series breaks down the toughest draft-day decisions facing fantasy managers, using Underdog’s average draft position (ADP) as a guide. Each installment compares similarly ranked players at the same position, using key stats from previous seasons and contextual factors — including team situation — to identify the better pick.

Today’s matchup features Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice as we evaluate the better early third-round option in fantasy drafts.

JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA (WR17) Vs. RASHEE RICE (WR18)

Smith-Njigba broke out in 2024 with a top-10 fantasy finish at wide receiver. After serving as the third option in Seattle’s passing game as a rookie, he leapfrogged both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in Year 2 — ultimately rendering both expendable, as neither remains on the roster heading into 2025.

Rice’s 2024 season was cut short by injury, but in the three games he played at full health, he never finished worse than WR16 in weekly PPR scoring. He ranked as the overall WR2 through those first three weeks, and with growing optimism that he’ll be ready for Week 1, he’s poised to chase elite production over a full season in 2025.

INVOLVEMENT IN THE OFFENSE

Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks in all major receiving categories in 2024, finishing with 133 targets — a top-12 mark among wide receivers — and a 21.3% target rate. While his rate didn’t place him among the elite at the position, it was still impressive considering D.K. Metcalf maintained a solid 19.7% target share of his own. With a new quarterback and restructured target competition heading into 2025, Smith-Njigba’s target volume could reasonably swing in either direction.

For Rice, his emergence as Kansas City’s top receiving threat began after the team’s 2023 bye week and continued through the playoffs, up until his injury in 2024. From Week 11 of 2023 through Week 3 of 2024, he led the team in targets (120), receiving yards (1,110) and receiving touchdowns (six), with a team-high 25.9% target rate during that stretch.

PRODUCTION AND PERFORMANCE

Smith-Njigba delivered solid efficiency in his second season, even if comparisons to Rice are complicated by differing sample sizes. His consistency was a major asset for fantasy managers, finishing no worse than WR36 in 12 of 16 games during the fantasy season. That level of steady production kept him in starting lineups all year and is an underrated mark of value.

Rice’s efficiency, meanwhile, ranks among the league’s best at the position. The only caveat is sample size, as he has yet to handle a full season as a true every-down starter. Still, his per-play production has been so strong that projecting him over a full season is enticing. He’s shown himself to be an ideal fit in Kansas City’s offense — a reliable target for Patrick Mahomes who consistently gets open and excels after the catch.

HIGH-VALUE TARGET INVOLVEMENT

Smith-Njigba emerged as Seattle’s top red-zone target in 2024, leading the team in red-zone target rate and ranking 18th among wide receivers leaguewide in that category. Despite the Seahawks ranking just 30th in red-zone plays last season, Smith-Njigba made the most of his opportunities, scoring five of his six touchdowns from inside the 20.

Rice faced stiffer red-zone competition in Kansas City, but the Chiefs’ offense consistently creates opportunity in that area, ranking in the top three in red-zone passing attempts in each of the past three regular seasons. Even with limited availability, Rice has capitalized, posting nine receiving touchdowns over the last two regular seasons, just one fewer than Smith-Njigba despite playing 14 fewer games during that span.

TEAM PASSING/QUARTERBACK SITUATION

Seattle will undergo a major transition at quarterback in 2025, with Sam Darnold set to replace Geno Smith. Darnold is coming off a career-best season, one in which he actually earned a higher passing grade than Patrick Mahomes. Still, that performance stands out against a larger body of work marked by inconsistency and below-average play. His time with the Seahawks could swing either way — a pivotal factor in determining whether Smith-Njigba’s fantasy stock rises or falls this season.

Rice, on the other hand, benefits from the stability of playing with Mahomes, who has graded as a top-10 quarterback in each of the past three seasons. There are no concerns about volatility under center in Kansas City. The Chiefs have ranked third in regular-season pass rate (65.3%) since 2022, a positive indicator for Rice’s continued involvement and upside in 2025.

POTENTIAL 2025 TARGET COMPETITION

With both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett no longer in Seattle, a new — and arguably greater — target threat arrives in the form of Cooper Kupp. Kupp has long been one of the league’s premier target earners in Sean McVay’s offense with Matthew Stafford under center. While he’ll now be adjusting to a new coach and quarterback, there’s still plenty of reason to expect him to be heavily involved in all aspects of the Seahawks’ offense. Kupp has missed multiple games in each of the past two seasons — a factor that can't be ignored — but there’s still room for both Kupp and Smith-Njigba to thrive in 2025 if health permits.

In Kansas City, Travis Kelce remains the focal point of the passing game, continuing to command elite target shares and red zone usage. Meanwhile, newcomers Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown bring speed and vertical-threat capabilities, potentially siphoning off high-value targets from Rice. As a result, Rice will need to continue winning in the short and intermediate areas — something he’s excelled at — to sustain consistent fantasy value.

Rashee Rice vs. Jaxon Smith Njigba: Target Maps (2024)

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While the final decision is yours, don’t go into your draft blind. Be sure to check out PFF’s latest fantasy football rankings to see exactly where Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rashee Rice and the rest of your targets stack up heading into 2025.