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Seven fades at ADP for the 2021 fantasy football season

Over the past two weeks, I have focused on the positives with truckloads of content centered on players to target in fantasy drafts.

Today, I am going negative because it will provide us with a net positive. There is such a thing as addition by subtraction. So really, I am still positive after all. Eat your heart out, Tony Robbins.

Here are the players I am fading in PPR and half-PPR formats at their current average draft position (ADP) by round:


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Note: ADP based on PPR from FantasyPros using My Fantasy League, ESPN, RTSPorts and Fantrax.

Round 1 

Who: Derrick Henry and Ezekiel Elliott
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Why:

After the top-three backs are off the board, there isn't a reason to force Elliott and Henry over the top receiver tier and Travis Kelce. They could offer similar value to those players, but they come with added risk minus a better upside. We only want to take on additional risks in any investment portfolio when the potential upside is higher.

Elliott (26) is over the 1,500 attempt marker (1,524) when including penalties and playoffs while Henry (27) is at 1,364 attempts. Additionally, Elliott is showing a decrease in explosive runs over expected in recent years.

ADP and explosive runs over expected:

Player Current ADP 2018 2019 2020
Derrick Henry 4 4.0% 5.8% 5.0%
Ezekiel Elliott 6 7.6% 4.1% 2.4%

Elliott might be insulated by his younger age and receiving duties, but those carries are the most for any active back in the league. Elliott looks to be in better shape, so there is a chance he corrects these woes, but it is an uphill battle.

Henry is slightly under the attempt marker, but he will hit it this season, and he isn't active in the passing game to help offset any potential efficiency regression. He was a game-script dependent back until two seasons ago because of his lack of routes.

Only two backs with Henry's age and role profile (27 years or older, a lot of carries and low targets) have made it into the top 12 since 2011: Michael Turner and LeGarrette Blount.

However, Adrian Peterson posted 349 points in a similar role at 27 years old in 2012 —he had a slightly more significant role in the receiving game. So that is the comp we are hoping for if betting on Henry.

Should you take them if they slide?

Yes. Once the top receivers and Kelce are gone, the risk/reward equation tightens up versus the next group of players. I have Aaron Jones ranked above them, but he could fall back into the second round.

I have some Elliott and Henry exposure from earlier in the draft season, but lately, I only select them around the eighth or ninth pick when they slide.

Round 2 

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