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2021 NFL win totals tracker

Feb 7, 2021; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) celebrates during the fourth quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

NFL win totals are one of the most popular wagers for NFL bettors, so PFF's dedicated team of betting analysts have come together to track these totals and provide up-to-date analysis as we approach the 2021 NFL season.

Here, you will find the latest win totals and odds, updated break-even percentages, PFF projected totals, PFF simulation results and information on PFF's favorite NFL bets.

The Kansas City Chiefs currently lead the way with 12 wins, closely followed by the Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers with 11.5. The Houston Texans (4.5 wins) and Detroit Lions (5) trail the rest of the NFL and will be hoping for a miracle in the 2021 NFL Draft to turn their fortunes around.

All odds have been sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Updated Win Totals & Odds

Below you will find the most recent win totals and prices to bet each side appended to the historical odds from prior dates.

Division/Team
April 7
April 13
Total
Over price
Under price
Total
Over price
Under price
AFC East
Buffalo Bills 10.5 -110 -110 10.5 -118 -104
Miami Dolphins 9 -121 100 9 -121 +100
New England Patriots 9 -143 118 9 -143 +118
New York Jets 7 123 -150 6.5 +123 -150
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens 11 -125 103 11 -125 +103
Cleveland Browns 9.5 -150 123 9.5 -150 +123
Pittsburgh Steelers 8.5 -125 103 8.5 -121 +100
Cincinnati Bengals 6.5 -110 -110 6.5 -110 -110
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts 10 110 -134 10 +110 -134
Tennesee Titans 9.5 123 -150 9.5 +123 -150
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.5 -110 -110 6.5 +100 -121
Houston Texans 4.5 -125 103 4.5 -110 -110
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs 12 -110 -110 12 -110 -110
Los Angeles Chargers 9 103 -125 9 -107 -114
Denver Broncos 7.5 -110 -110 7.5 +100 -121
Las Vegas Raiders 7.5 -110 -110 7.5 -110 -110
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys 9.5 110 -134 9.5 +110 -134
Washington Football Team 8 -110 -110 8 -134 +110
New York Giants 7 -110 -110 7 -110 -110
Philadelphia Eagles 6.5 -150 123 6.5 -134 +110
NFC North
Green Bay Packers 10.5 -143 118 10.5 -143 +118
Minnesota Vikings 8.5 123 -150 8.5 -143 +118
Chicago Bears 7 -121 100 7 -110 -110
Detroit Lions 5 -110 -110 5 +100 -121
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11.5 -110 -110 11.5 -125 +103
New Orleans Saints 9 -110 -110 9 -110 -110
Carolina Panthers 7.5 -110 -110 7.5 -106 -115
Atlanta Falcons 7 -143 118 7 -143 +118
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams 10.5 123 -150 10.5 +123 -150
San Francisco 49ers 10.5 123 -150 10.5 +123 -150
Seattle Seahawks 9.5 -110 -110 9.5 -134 +110
Arizona Cardinals 8 -110 -110 8 -110 -110

 

Current odds, implied odds and true totals

Based on prices we provide, the implied chance of each team winning over/under their win total and the “true” win total based on those odds. Example: Say you want to bet the Patriots to win over 9 games at -143. Since you have to bet $143 to win $100, the implied odds for the Patriots to go over 9 wins is 56.2%, and their “true” win total is really 9.4 wins.

Division/
Team
Total
(O|U Price)
Over implied
Under implied
Adjusted total
AFC East
Buffalo
Bills
10.5
(-118|-104)
51.5% 48.5% 10.6
Miami
Dolphins
9
(-121|+100)
52.3% 47.7% 9.2
New England
Patriots
9
(-143|+118)
56.2% 43.8% 9.4
New York
Jets
6.5
(+123|-150)
42.8% 57.2% 6
AFC North
Baltimore
Ravens
11
(-125|+103)
53.0% 47.0% 11.2
Cleveland
Browns
9.5
(-150|+123)
57.2% 42.8% 10
Pittsburgh
Steelers
8.5
(-121|+100)
52.3% 47.7% 8.7
Cincinnati
Bengals
6.5
(-110|-110)
50.0% 50.0% 6.5
AFC South
Indianapolis
Colts
10
(+110|-134)
45.4% 54.6% 9.7
Tennesee
Titans
9.5
(+123|-150)
42.8% 57.2% 9
Jacksonville
Jaguars
6.5
(+110|-121)
47.7% 52.3% 6.3
Houston
Texans
4.5
(-110|-110)
50.0% 50.0% 4.5
AFC West
Kansas City
Chiefs
12
(-110|-110)
50.0% 50.0% 12
Los Angeles
Chargers
9
(-107|-114)
49.3% 50.8% 8.9
Denver
Broncos
7.5
(+100|-121)
47.7% 52.3% 7.3
Las Vegas
Raiders
7.5
(-110|-110)
50.0% 50.0% 7.5
NFC East
Dallas
Cowboys
9.5
(+110|-134)
45.4% 54.6% 9.2
Washington
Football Team
8
(-134|+110)
54.6% 45.4% 8.3
New York
Giants
7
(-110|-110)
50.0% 50.0% 7
Philadelphia
Eagles
6.5
(-134|+110)
54.6% 45.4% 6.8
NFC North
Green Bay
Packers
10.5
(-143|+118)
56.2% 43.8% 10.9
Minnesota
Vikings
8.5
(-143|+118)
56.2% 43.8% 8.9
Chicago
Bears
7
(-110|-110)
50.0% 50.0% 7
Detroit
Lions
5
(+100|-121)
47.7% 52.3% 4.8
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11.5
(-125|103)
53.0% 47.0% 11.7
New Orleans
Saints
9
(-110|-110)
50.0% 50.0% 9
Carolina
Panthers
7.5
(-106|-115)
49.0% 51.0% 7.4
Atlanta
Falcons
7
(-143|+118)
56.2% 43.8% 7.4
NFC West
Los Angeles
Rams
10.5
(+123|-150)
42.8% 57.2% 10
San Francisco
49ers
10.5 (+123|-150) 42.8% 57.2% 10
Seattle
Seahawks
9.5
(-134|+110)
54.6% 45.4% 9.8
Arizona
Cardinals
8
(-110|-110)
50.0% 50.0% 8

 

PFF Simulation Results & Projected Totals

PFF simulates the NFL season 10,000 times, leveraging unique team metrics built from PFF grading and other predictive team and player variables. The percentage of the time a team goes over or under their win total can be compared to the break-even numbers that are needed to make betting that side profitable (for teams with a whole number total we exclude the scenarios where they win exactly that number and provide the percentage where the bet wins or loses within that new sample of seasons).

Note: BE% = Break-even percentage; PFF Proj = PFF's projected win total

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