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2021 NFL win totals tracker

Feb 7, 2021; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) celebrates during the fourth quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

PFF is tracking NFL win totals and providing up-to-date analysis and bets to make using our market-leading 2021 NFL season simulation engine.

The Kansas City Chiefs currently lead the league (12.0), but the Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers are right behind KC at 11.5. The Houston Texans (4.5) and Detroit Lions (5) trail the rest of the NFL.

All odds have been sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Updated Win Totals & Odds

Below you will find the most recent win totals and prices to bet each side appended to the historical odds from prior dates.

Division/Team
Total (Over|Under)
March 30
May 31
July 8
July 12
AFC East
Buffalo
Bills
10.5
(-110|-110)
11
(-106|-122)
11
(-110|-110)
11
(-110|-110)
Miami
Dolphins
9
(-121|+100)
9
(-150|+123)
9
(-150|+123)
9.5
(+105|-125)
New England
Patriots
9
(-143|+118)
9
(-130|+107)
9
(-134|+110)
9.5
(+110|-130)
New York
Jets
7
(+123|-150)
6.5
(+122|-150)
6.5
(+112|-136)
6
(+100|-120)
AFC North
Baltimore
Ravens
11
(-125|+103)
10.5
(-155|+127)
10.5
(-155|+127)
11
(+100|-120)
Cleveland
Browns
9.5
(-150|+123)
10.5
(+100|-121)
10.5
(+100|-121)
10.5
(-120|+100)
Pittsburgh
Steelers
8.5
(-125|+103)
8.5
(-110|-110)
8.5
(-107|-114)
8.5
(+115|-135)
Cincinnati
Bengals
6.5
(-110|-110)
6.5
(+118|-143)
6.5
(+115|-139)
6.5
(+110|-130)
AFC South
Indianapolis
Colts
10
(+110|-134)
10
(+115|-139)
10
(+115|-139)
9.5
(-150|+120)
Tennesee
Titans
9.5
(+123|-150)
9
(-110|-110)
9.5
(-110|-110)
9.5
(-140|+115)
Jacksonville
Jaguars
6.5
(-110|-110)
6.5
(+110|-134)
6.5
(+118|-143)
6.5
(-110|-110)
Houston
Texans
4.5
(-125|+103)
4.5
(+118|-143)
4.5
(+130|-159)
4
(-105|-115)
AFC West
Kansas City
Chiefs
12
(-110|-110)
12.5
(+123|-150)
12.5
(+123|-150)
12.5
(+105|-125)
Los Angeles
Chargers
9
(+103|-125)
9
(-110|-110)
9
(-110|-110)
9.5
(+115|-135)
Denver
Broncos
7.5
(-110|-110)
8.5
(-134|+110)
8.5
(-134|+110)
8.5
(-135|+115)
Las Vegas
Raiders
7.5
(-110|-110)
7
(-115|-106)
7
(-115|-106)
7
(-110|-110)
NFC East
Dallas
Cowboys
9.5
(+110|-134)
9.5
(+107|-130)
9.5
(+107|-130)
9
(-140|+115)
Washington
Football Team
8
(-110|-110)
8
(-141|+116)
8
(-141|+116)
8.5
(-115|-105)
New York
Giants
7
(-110|-110)
7
(-130|+107)
7
(-143|+118)
7
(-130|+110)
Philadelphia
Eagles
6.5
(-150|+123)
6.5
(-155|+127)
6.5
(-150|+123)
6.5
(-130|+110)
NFC North
Green Bay
Packers
10.5
(-143|+118)
10.5
(-143|+118)
10.5
(-143|+118)
10.5
(-143|+118)
Minnesota
Vikings
8.5
(+123|-150)
9
(+125|+103)
9
(+110|-134)
9
(-110|-110)
Chicago
Bears
7
(-121|+100)
7.5
(+103|-125)
7.5
(+103|-125)
7.5
(+100|-120)
Detroit
Lions
5
(-110|-110)
5
(-110|-110)
5
(+100|-121)
4.5
(-140|+120)
NFC South
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
11.5
(-110|-110)
11.5
(-125|+103)
11.5
(-125|+103)
12
(-110|-110)
New Orleans
Saints
9
(-110|-110)
9
(+103|-125)
9
(-105|-117)
9
(-115|-105)
Carolina
Panthers
7.5
(-110|-110)
7.5
(+110|-134)
7.5
(+110|-134)
7.5
(-105|-115)
Atlanta
Falcons
7
(-143|+118)
7.5
(-155|+127)
7.5
(-110|-110)
7.5
(-130|+110)
NFC West
Los Angeles
Rams
10.5
(+123|-150)
10.5
(+105|-129)
10.5
(+115|-139)
10.5
(+105|-125)
San Francisco
49ers
10.5
(+123|-150)
10.5
(+107|-130)
10.5
(+107|-130)
10.5
(+105|-125)
Seattle
Seahawks
9.5
(-110|-110)
9.5
(-134|+110)
9.5
(-139|+115)
10
(+100|-120)
Arizona
Cardinals
8
(-110|-110)
8
(-134|+110)
8
(-134|+110)
8.5
(+100|-120)

 

Current odds, implied odds and true totals

Based on prices we provide, the implied chance of each team winning over/under their win total and the “true” win total based on those odds. Example: Say you want to bet the Patriots to win over 9 games at -143. Since you have to bet $143 to win $100, the implied odds for the Patriots to go over 9 wins is 56.2%, and their “true” win total is really 9.4 wins.

Team
Total (Over|Under Price)
Over implied
Under implied
Adjusted total
AFC East
Buffalo
Bills
11
(-110|-110)
50.0% 50.0% 11.0
New England
Patriots
9.5
(+110|-130)
45.7% 54.3% 9.2
Miami
Dolphins
9.5
(+105|-125)
46.8% 53.3% 9.3
New York
Jets
6
(+100|-120)
47.8% 52.2% 5.9
AFC North
Baltimore
Ravens
11
(+100|-120)
47.8% 52.2% 10.9
Cleveland
Browns
10.5
(-120|+100)
52.2% 47.8% 10.7
Pittsburgh
Steelers
8.5
(+115|-135)
44.7% 55.3% 8.1
Cincinnati
Bengals
6.5
(+110|-130)
45.7% 54.3% 6.2
AFC South
Indianapolis
Colts
9.5
(-150|+120)
56.9% 43.1% 10.0
Tennesee
Titans
9.5
(-140|+115)
55.6% 44.4% 9.9
Jacksonville
Jaguars
6.5
(-110|-110)
50.0% 50.0% 6.5
Houston
Texans
4
(-105|-115)
48.9% 51.1% 3.9
AFC West
Kansas City
Chiefs
12.5
(+105|-125)
46.8% 53.3% 12.3
Los Angeles
Chargers
9.5
(+115|-135)
44.7% 55.3% 9.1
Denver
Broncos
8.5
(-135|+115)
55.3% 44.7% 8.9
Las Vegas
Raiders
7
(-110|-110)
50.0% 50.0% 7.0
NFC East
Dallas
Cowboys
9
(-140|+115)
55.6% 44.4% 9.4
Washington
Football Team
8.5
(-115|-105)
51.1% 48.9% 8.6
New York
Giants
7
(-130|+110)
54.3% 45.7% 7.3
Philadelphia
Eagles
6.5
(-130|+110)
54.3% 45.7% 6.8
NFC North
Green Bay
Packers
10.5
(-143|+118)
56.2% 43.8% 10.9
Minnesota
Vikings
9
(-110|-110)
50.0% 50.0% 9.0
Chicago
Bears
7.5
(+100|-120)
47.8% 52.2% 7.4
Detroit
Lions
4.5
(-140|+120)
56.2% 43.8% 4.9
NFC South
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
12
(-110|-110)
50.0% 50.0% 12
New Orleans
Saints
9
(-115|-105)
51.1% 48.9% 9.1
Carolina
Panthers
7.5
(-105|-115)
48.9% 51.1% 7.4
Atlanta
Falcons
7.5
(-130|+110)
54.3% 45.7% 7.8
NFC West
Los Angeles
Rams
10.5
(+105|-125)
46.8% 53.3% 10.3
San Francisco
49ers
10.5
(+105|-125)
46.8% 53.3% 10.3
Seattle
Seahawks
10
(+100|-120)
47.8% 52.2% 9.9
Arizona
Cardinals
8.5
(+100|-120)
47.8% 52.2% 8.4

PFF Simulation Results & Projected Totals

PFF simulates the NFL season 10,000 times, leveraging unique team metrics built from PFF grading and other predictive team and player variables. The percentage of the time a team goes over or under their win total can be compared to the break-even numbers that are needed to make betting that side profitable (for teams with a whole number total we exclude the scenarios where they win exactly that number and provide the percentage where the bet wins or loses within that new sample of seasons).

Note: BE% = Break-even percentage; PFF Proj = PFF's projected win total

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