Fantasy News & Analysis

Fantasy Football: Post-NFL draft dynasty rookie superflex rankings

2KFRDK0 November 19, 2022: Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) escapes a tackle during the NCAA football game between the Maryland Terrapins and the Ohio State Buckeyes at SECU Stadium in College Park, MD. Reggie Hildred/CSM

Marvin Harrison Jr. remains on top: Despite superflex favoring quarterbacks, the new Arizona Cardinals wide receiver is the safest pick in rookie drafts.

• Four quarterbacks in the top seven: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy are all top-10 draft picks who should be starting for their teams from Day 1.

Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. will be taken in the first half of the second round: The other two first-round quarterbacks will come with more question marks, but fantasy managers should still prioritize them in superflex rookie drafts.

Estimated reading time: 14 minutes

Now that the 2024 NFL Draft is over, here is the most recent version of my dynasty rookie rankings for superflex PPR leagues.

Dynasty rankings for single-quarterback leagues can be found here, rookie rankings for single-quarterback leagues here and dynasty superflex rankings here.

Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Thursday, May 2

1. WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals (WR1, Round 1-Pick 4)

Harrison is the clear top pick in single-quarterback leagues and just beats out Caleb Williams as the top pick in superflex rookie drafts.

  • Harrison was arguably the safest pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, as he has very few weaknesses in his game.
  • He has the best release in the class, and he is undoubtedly the best route runner.
  • Our draft guide compares him to Davante Adams, but Harrison is bigger.
  • Kyler Murray has typically supported a fantasy star. In the past, this has included Larry Fitzgerald, DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk and Trey McBride.
  • Six of the last seven wide receivers picked in the top five posted top-30 fantasy performances in Year 1, including Ja’Marr Chase, who finished WR5 in 2021. 
  • His floor in redraft leagues should be the top 30. He might be the only rookie in this draft class to be featured in the majority of fantasy starting lineups in Week 1.
  • Harrison's odds of being a star in this league and fantasy football are slightly higher than Williams', which is why he’s slightly ahead here. It’s okay to let positional needs determine whether you pick Harrison or Caleb Williams first.

2. QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (QB1, Round 1-Pick 1)

Williams was the first overall pick and is in a better situation than recent quarterbacks who were taken at No. 1 overall.

  • His wide receiver trio of D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze is one of the best receiver units in the NFL.
  • Williams doesn’t run as much as other quarterbacks, but his career rushing grade ranked third among all players at the position over that span. 
  • According to PFF's draft guide, the main issue with Williams is “a lack of consistency rather than ability in any area.”
  • If Williams becomes more consistent and runs more often, he could be a consistent top-three fantasy quarterback.
  • If he doesn’t run often and doesn’t become more efficient, he might not be a fantasy starter, even in superflex leagues.

3. QB Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (QB2, Round 1-Pick 2)

Daniels was the second quarterback off the board and should be greatly helped by his rushing production.

  • Daniels earned a 91.5 PFF rushing grade throughout his college career, the best mark among Power Five quarterbacks over the last decade, joining Lamar Jackson, Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams
  • No quarterback in the PFF College era forced more missed tackles on rushes, while Jackson and Jalen Hurts ranked in the top five. Daniels' passing shouldn’t be overlooked either, as he has the best mechanics of any passer in the class.
  • The Commanders hired Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator this offseason. Kyler Murray was a top-12 fantasy quarterback in points per game all four seasons that Kingsbury was his head coach, including his 2019 rookie season.
  • Every quarterback with 100 or more rushing attempts in the last decade has averaged at least 18 fantasy points per start, which should easily be within reach for Daniels.
  • While Daniels is ahead of WIlliams in my redraft rankings, he’s lower in my dynasty rankings because quarterbacks with extraordinary rushing abilities typically stop being fantasy starters earlier than quarterbacks who are excellent passers.

4. WR Malik Nabers, New York Giants (WR2, Round 1-Pick 6)

Nabers was the second wide receiver off the board, and he has a bright future in New York.

  • Nabers is a very well-rounded wide receiver who can play both on the outside and in the slot.
  • He was the highest-graded Power Five wide receiver last season (93.1). He earned the highest grade from the slot (92.6) and the third-highest grade lined up out wide (85.1).
  • The Giants haven’t had a receiver exceed 800 receiving yards since Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard in 2018.
  • Nabers would have been the Giants' top receiver, regardless of the offseason losses, but with Saquon Barkley off the roster and Darren Waller‘s potential retirement, Nabers should see over 100 targets as a rookie.
  • In an ideal world, Nabers would be entering Year 1 with a better quarterback situation, but plenty of elite receivers have put up great numbers without a great quarterback. And there is always a chance Nabers will have better quarterback options as soon as 2025.

5. WR Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears (WR3, Round 1-Pick 9)

Odunze deserves the third spot in dynasty drafts despite having a lot of target competition.

  • PFF's draft guide calls Odunze a super-sized Chris Olave, and he is the best contested-catch receiver in the class. 
  • Over the last two seasons, no wide receiver in college football put up more deep targets or deep receiving yards. 
  • His 1,639 receiving yards ranked first among Power Five wide receivers last season. His 88.8 PFF receiving grade lined up out wide was the highest among all Power Five receivers.
  • Odunze’s dynasty value took somewhat of a hit when he landed in a receiving corps that already has D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, making the Bears receiving rooms one of the best in the league.
  • Allen just turned 32 years old last week and won’t be a long-term obstacle to Odunze’s fantasy success, but Moore is only 27 and will ideally remain in Chicago for the next few seasons.
  • Recently, the San Francisco 49ers (2023), Miami Dolphins (2022) and Philadelphia Eagles (2022) have shown that a good team can maintain two top-15 fantasy wide receivers.
  • While other wide receivers will be better options in redraft, Odunze’s talent and long-term potential keep him as the third-best option.

6. QB Drake Maye, New England Patriots (QB3, Round 1-Pick 3)

Maye is a very talented passer, but there are some question marks for fantasy football purposes.

  • Of the five stable metrics we tracked for our draft guide, he was at the 100th percentile in PFF grade on passes thrown past the sticks and on passes without play-action. He finished in the 90th percentile or above in the other three. 
  • One concern is his current situation with the Patriots, who have plenty of options on offense, but the top-end talent isn’t as strong as most other teams.
  • The only player with over 600 receiving yards in either of the last two seasons was Jakobi Meyers in 2022, and he’s now with the Las Vegas Raiders.
  • New England has made plenty of investments in their offense, including Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker at wide receiver and Caedan Wallace and Layden Robinson on the offensive line, all within the first four rounds.
  • They also added wide receiver K.J. Osborn and tight end Austin Hooper in free agency. This gives the Patriots nine wide receivers who could realistically fight for one of the three starting spots.
  • There is also concern about Maye’s rushing. His PFF rushing grade was between 73.0 and 75.0 in each of the last two seasons, while the two quarterbacks picked above him have much better rushing grades.
  • Three of the top four fantasy quarterbacks ran for at least 500 yards last season.

7. QB J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings (QB4, Round 1-Pick 10)

McCarthy landed in a great situation with the Vikings but isn’t as talented as the top three quarterbacks.

  • McCarthy will be throwing to Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, Jordan Addison and Aaron Jones, giving him one of the best supporting casts of any quarterback in the NFL.
  • McCarthy is obviously a talented enough passer to be drafted in the first round, but he finished between the 75th and 89th percentile in each of our stable grades.
  • Our draft guide says he is not a finished product. With more experience, he could become an elite passer, but there is also a chance he’s already as good as he will ever be.
  • There are even more concerns about McCarthy’s rushing than Maye's.
  • McCarthy graded slightly better as a rusher this season, but of his 39 designed runs, 11 were kneel-downs. He scrambled only 18 times — or just over once per game.
  • Kirk Cousins has shown for years that players who don't rush often can be fantasy starters even in standard leagues, but for that, McCarthy would have to play as well as Cousins.

8. TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders (TE1, Round 1-Pick 13)

Bowers was the clear-cut top tight end of this draft class.

  • Bowers’ 94.1 career receiving grade was the best for any Power Five tight end of the last 10 years. 
  • Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid, T.J. Hockenson, Sam LaPorta and Jake Ferguson are five tight ends who rank among the top 15 in college career receiving grade — and all finished among the top 13 fantasy tight ends last season.
  • Bowers could have moved up these rankings with a better landing spot, but he surprisingly landed with the Raiders.
  • Las Vegas took Michael Mayer with the 35th overall pick of the 2023 draft. Mayer’s 90.8 receiving grade in college ranked ninth at the position.
  • Mayer is a more well-rounded tight end, while Bowers is more of a receiver. So, if anything, this greatly hurts Mayer’s fantasy value and only somewhat hurts Bowers'.
  • The Raiders ran more than the league average last season, and their new offensive coordinator, Luke Getsy, comes from the Chicago Bears, the fourth-most run-heavy team last season.
  • Las Vegas added Gardner Minshew II in free agency and didn’t address the position in the draft.
  • Despite all of this, tight ends who are talented enough can overcome their situation for fantasy football purposes. Trey McBride was an example of this last year, starting the season behind Zach Ertz and without Kyler Murray.

9. WR Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (WR4, Round 1-Pick 23)

Thomas was the consensus WR4 heading into the draft, and his landing spot was strong enough for him to remain WR4 in my rankings.

  • Thomas has a rare combination of size and speed. He finished above the 80th percentile among wide receivers in both height and 40-yard dash time.
  • He has the opportunity to be Jacksonville's top outside threat after the team was unable to re-sign Calvin Ridley.
  • While Jacksonville has strong options for receivers over the middle of the field (Christian Kirk and tight end Evan Engram), Ridley was WR18 last season and finished as a top-10 fantasy receiver in five weeks.
  • Arguments could be made for wide receivers who were picked later and landed with more consistent quarterbacks, but the talent gap was enough for me to leave Thomas ahead, given how well Trevor Lawrence has played at times.

10. RB Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers (RB1, Round 2-Pick 46)

Brooks is the clear top running back who should be picked in dynasty leagues.

  • Brooks was the top running back on our big board and on the consensus big boards, and he was the only running back selected in the first two rounds.
  • Ten running backs were selected within the first four rounds, but landing spots included the Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals, New York Jets and Los Angeles Ramsfive teams that already had running backs who ranked top-10 in PFF grade last season.
  • In free agency, the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers added big-name running backs who ranked top-three in PFF grade at one point. 
  • This leaves Brooks, Ray Davis (Buffalo Bills) and Bucky Irving (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) as the only running backs drafted with anywhere close to a good landing spot. The other two backs weren’t picked until the middle of the fourth round, and the Bills and Buccaneers have established starters.
  • Brooks is the most likely running back of the group to have a big contribution in his rookie season.
  • Second-round running backs have been no sure thing, as Zach Charbonnet didn’t contribute much for fantasy managers last season, and neither did Breece Hall or James Cook in their rookie seasons.
  • Brooks is the best running back option, but he is still the best of a weak running back class, allowing him to fall ot the middle of the first round.

11. WR Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs (WR6, Round 1-Pick 28)

The Chiefs drafted Worthy with the 28th overall pick — the best-case scenario for the Texas product.

  • While some of the first-round wide receivers ended up with a solid quarterback, only Worthy ended up with Patrick Mahomes.
  • The Chiefs have plenty of players in the wide receiver room, but Worthy can certainly find a spot among the Chiefs starters.
  • Rashee Rice currently leads the depth chart, but it is unclear whether he'll be suspended for his alleged involvement in a recent multi-vehicle crash that injured at least four people. The Chiefs added Marquise Brown, who will be followed by Justin Watson, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney and Justyn Ross.
  • None of those players have the speed Worthy possesses.
  • Andy Reid is very familiar with incredibly fast receivers, including Tyreek Hill and DeSean Jackson. Those are big shoes to fill, but if Worthy hits, he could hit big in this offense.
  • Worthy has ranked higher on other big boards, but despite the excitement for his speed and landing spot, there is still some concern.
  • Rice was one of the five highest-graded rookie wideouts of the last half-decade, joining Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua and Terry McLaurin. Even when Travis Kelce retires, Worthy might not be the top receiving option for Kansas City, even if he plays well.
  • Worthy ranked 69th on our big board, with 13 wide receivers ahead of him. The landing spot and high draft stock move him up significantly, just not as high for me as others.

12. WR Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers (WR7, Round 2-Pick 34)

McConkey is another late Day 1, early Day 2 receiver who has landed with an elite quarterback on a team that needed a wide receiver.

  • Since Justin Herbert was drafted by the Chargers in 2020, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Jalen Guyton, Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett have represented 60% or more of the Chargers' receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. None of those players are currently on the Chargers roster.
  • They didn’t add any wide receivers in free agency, with Hayden Hurst and J.K. Dobbins the closest receiving replacements at tight end and running back.
  • McConkey joins new teammates Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston. He should be able to play in the slot and potentially lead the team in receiving.
  • The Chargers have a new offensive coordinator in Greg Roman. Compared to the league average, Roman's slot receivers have consistently been given more opportunities than his outside receivers. This was certainly the case when he worked with Jim Harbaugh and the San Francisco 49ers a decade ago.
  • Los Angeles might continue to look for upgrades at wide receiver in future seasons, but as long as McConkey remains their slot receiver, he should maintain his value.
Rank Position Name Team Position Rank Draft Round Draft Selection
13 QB Bo Nix Broncos QB5 1 12
14 WR Keon Coleman Bills WR7 2 33
15 WR Ricky Pearsall 49ers WR8 1 31
16 RB Trey Benson Cardinals RB2 3 66
17 WR Xavier Legette Panthers WR9 1 32
18 QB Michael Penix Jr. Falcons QB6 1 8
19 WR Adonai Mitchell Colts WR10 2 52
20 WR Ja'Lynn Polk Patriots WR11 2 37
21 RB Blake Corum Rams RB3 3 83
22 RB MarShawn Lloyd Packers RB4 3 88
23 WR Malachi Corley Jets WR12 3 65
24 RB Bucky Irving Buccaneers RB5 4 125
25 RB Jaylen Wright Dolphins RB6 4 120
26 WR Roman Wilson Steelers WR13 3 84
27 WR Jermaine Burton Bengals WR14 3 80
28 TE Ben Sinnott Commanders TE2 2 53
29 RB Ray Davis Bills RB7 4 128
30 WR Troy Franklin Broncos WR15 4 102
31 WR Jalen McMillan Buccaneers WR16 3 92
32 RB Braelon Allen Jets RB8 4 134
33 RB Will Shipley Eagles RB9 4 127
34 WR Luke McCaffrey Commanders WR17 3 100
35 WR Javon Baker Patriots WR18 4 110
36 RB Audric Estime Broncos RB10 5 147
37 RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. Giants RB11 5 166
38 RB Isaiah Davis Jets RB12 5 173
39 TE Ja'Tavion Sanders Panthers TE3 4 101
40 WR Devontez Walker Ravens WR19 4 113
41 QB Spencer Rattler Saints QB7 5 150
42 QB Jordan Travis Jets QB8 5 171
43 RB Isaac Guerendo 49ers RB13 4 129
44 WR Jacob Cowing 49ers WR20 4 135
45 WR Malik Washington Dolphins WR21 6 184
46 WR Johnny Wilson Eagles WR22 6 185
47 WR Ainias Smith Eagles WR23 5 152
48 WR Jamari Thrash Browns WR24 5 156
49 RB Kimani Vidal Chargers RB14 6 181
50 RB Rasheen Ali Ravens RB15 5 165
51 WR Anthony Gould Colts WR25 5 142
52 TE Theo Johnson Giants TE4 4 107
53 WR Jha'Quan Jackson Titans WR26 6 182
54 TE Erick All Bengals TE5 4 115
55 WR Bub Means Saints WR27 5 170
56 WR Jordan Whittington Rams WR28 6 213
57 TE Cade Stover Texans TE6 4 123
58 RB Dylan Laube Raiders RB16 6 208
59 TE Tip Reiman Cardinals TE7 3 82
60 TE Jared Wiley Chiefs TE8 4 131



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