Fantasy News & Analysis

Best 2021 fantasy football ADP values on every NFL team

Jan 16, 2021; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) celebrates after a touchdown pass to wide receiver Allen Lazard (13) during the second half of a NFC Divisional Round playoff game against the Los Angeles Rams at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Every fantasy football draft offers players who are expected to outperform their average draft position (ADP). Roles, usage rates and opportunities within a particular system play a large part in determining which players present value compared to their counterparts at their respective positions. 

More of PFF's 2021 Fantasy Football tools here: 
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Projections | Strength of Schedule | Expected Points Weekly Finishes

The following list breaks down the player on every NFL roster who currently offers the best value relative to ADP. All ADP info is sourced from Underdog Fantasy.

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ARIZONA CARDINALS

RB Chase Edmonds: 78.4 ADP (RB28)

It was genuinely tough deciding between Edmonds and James Conner. The nod goes to Edmonds, as he led the Arizona backfield last year with 1.12 fantasy points per touch. In addition to his work on the ground, Edmonds’ ability as a receiver resulted in a strong 12.4% target share.

While Conner may steal most of the rushing work, particularly inside the 5-yard line, Edmonds’ receiving skills will not only keep him relevant but a legitimate weapon. Expect Conner to inherit the majority of Kenyan Drake’s vacated workload, but Edmonds should see an increase in rushing usage.

This is a player who can clearly run the ball: Edmonds earned 4.62 yards per carry (YPC) on 97 attempts in 2020.

ATLANTA FALCONS

WR Russell Gage: 105.9 ADP (WR51)

Exit Julio Jones, enter Gage. Of course, Calvin Ridley will be the WR1 for the Falcons, and incoming rookie Kyle Pitts will see plenty of targets, but Gage shouldn’t be slept on. During Weeks 14-17 while Jones was out with an injury, Gage totaled 62.5 fantasy points and was the 17th-highest-scoring receiver.

Gage remained productive with a WR37 finish over the full season. He’s not the flashiest player, but his 18.75% target share ranked second on the team in 2020, and Matt Ryan led the NFL in passing attempts with 626.

If the Falcons continue this kind of usage, Gage could absolutely smash his current ADP. Regardless, he represents a great opportunity to steal value as the WR51.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

RB J.K. Dobbins: 34.2 ADP (RB16)

Players being drafted as early as Dobbins don't typically offer a great chance to capitalize on value. However, Mark Ingram's departure strengthens both the floor and ceiling for the second-year back.

Dobbins ranked as RB18 from Week 7 onward and was RB13 when removing Week 12 when he was out due to COVID rules. Sure, he’ll split some work with Gus Edwards, but this high-scoring offense is worth an investment, particularly in the ground game. Baltimore ranked first in rushing attempts, rushing yards, explosive plays rushing (10-plus yards), run-play percentage (50.5%) and rushing yards per attempt (5.5) in 2020.

The Ravens are efficient and run the ball more than any other team; Dobbins should be in position for a massive workload even with Edwards getting his share of the work.

BUFFALO BILLS

RB Devin Singletary: 147.8 ADP (RB46)

Both Singletary and Zack Moss present value in 2021 fantasy drafts, but the former comes at a cheaper price tag and led the backfield in production last season. These two seem likely to split work all year and will likely be a headache either way.

Singletary sets himself apart in the passing game. Even when accounting for Moss' three missed games, Singletary's 47 targets dwarfed the rookie's 17 last season. In fact, Singletary led the way in rushing attempts per game (9.75), targets per game (2.94), target share (8.5%) and fantasy points per game (9.1).

CAROLINA PANTHERS

WR Robby Anderson: 61.1 ADP (WR29)

In his first season with the Panthers, Anderson led the team with an elite 26.2% target share despite competing with D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel for targets. Samuel’s departure frees up 18.2% of the team’s 2020 targets, but nearly all of those should be inherited by incoming rookie Terrace Marshall and a healthy Christian McCaffrey.

That being said, Anderson offers a unique skill set as a vertical weapon, and his WR20 finish last year offers the high-end upside worth chasing in fantasy football. 

Dec 27, 2020; Landover, Maryland, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Robby Anderson (11) scores a touchdown against Washington Football Team safety Kamren Curl (31) during the first half at FedExField. Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

CHICAGO BEARS

WR Darnell Mooney: 97.8 ADP (WR50)

Mooney’s current WR50 ADP lines up with his WR49 finish in 2020. His current price may not scream value, but neither do any of his teammates. The second-year player is the Bears’ WR2 and hauled in a 16.3% target share and 631 receiving yards last season.

There are two reasons to be excited for Mooney's outlook this season: Anthony Miller, the team’s former WR3, was recently traded (73 targets are now unaccounted for); and Mooney may experience positive regression in the quarterback performance department. He ranked 15th in incompletions attributed to a quarterback with 16 inaccurate targets.

CINCINNATI BENGALS

WR Tyler Boyd: 73.5 ADP (WR37)

Boyd was putting together a masterful season prior to quarterback Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury in Week 11. During those first 11 contests, Boyd’s 161.8 fantasy points ranked 11th among all wide receivers. The second half of the season was much less productive.

The addition of rookie Ja’Marr Chase may scare fantasy managers, but do not fear. Chase should inherit the role vacated by A.J. Green, and the Bengals proved capable of providing a strong target share to their top three receivers when Burrow was healthy in 2020.

CLEVELAND BROWNS

QB Baker Mayfield: 155.2 ADP (QB20)

Mayfield took a huge step forward in his development this past season, settling any debates on whether he is the Browns' future at the quarterback position with a QB16 (261.0 points) season.

While the Browns love to run the football, they still allowed Mayfield to throw 486 times in 2020, and his propensity to push the ball downfield was on display with a 9.2 aDOT that ranked ninth in the league. This offense should continue to score points after running the 11th-most red zone plays and seventh-most goal-line plays last year, proving Mayfield with a strong floor and decent ceiling.

DALLAS COWBOYS

TE Dalton Schultz: 213.9 ADP (TE31)

Blake Jarwin’s Week 1 injury paved a way for Schultz’s relevance, and he capitalized in a major way. His TE10 finish after being a free waiver-wire addition in fantasy leagues presented some of the best value of the season.

Of course, he will need to compete with Jarwin going into 2021, but Schultz's play should give him ample opportunities, and he comes at an insanely cheap price. Schutlz likely won’t accumulate the 14.3% target share he saw last season, but he could experience a boost in efficiency and red zone opportunities with Dak Prescott back in the fold.

DENVER BRONCOS

RB Melvin Gordon: 117.3 ADP (RB37)

The Broncos clearly viewed Gordon as their RB1 in 2020 based on the numbers. His 62.2% snap share in the games he was healthy (Weeks 1-5, 7-17) significantly out-produced the next-closest running back (23%).

The addition of Javonte Williams certainly caps Gordon’s ceiling, but his ADP already takes that into consideration. In fact, Gordon is significantly less expensive than Williams. His price feels rather cheap for a player who is likely projected for at worst a 50/50 split and is coming off a 215/986/9 rushing line.

Nov 22, 2020; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos running back Melvin Gordon III (25) celebrates after scoring a touchdown in the first quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Empower Field at Mile High. Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

DETROIT LIONS

WR Tyrell Williams: 169.0 ADP (WR77)

It’s been a while since Williams has been fantasy-relevant, but that's why he comes in as the WR77 in ADP. The Lions offense is brutal, but somebody needs to catch footballs and Williams could certainly be one of the top options. The Lions have at least 330 targets unaccounted for from the 2020 season.

Dating back to 2016, Williams finished as WR47, WR49, WR43 and WR18. It’s rather evident he can play — the main issues are the injuries in recent seasons and low ceiling.

GREEN BAY PACKERS

QB Aaron Rodgers: 92.0 ADP (QB8)

Rodgers finished as the overall QB3 in 2020 with an elite 391.9 fantasy point total. It won’t be easy to repeat, but he may have some intrinsic motivation during his likely final season in Green Bay. The Packers at least mildly strengthened his surroundings by drafting Amari Rodgers and trading for old friend Randall Cobb.

Dec 13, 2020; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) runs the ball during the game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

We have no reason to expect Rodgers to massively regress from his league-leading 121.5 passer rating. He’s still as sharp as ever, and Davante Adams is still in town. AR12 may not be the best value on this list, but he also won’t bust.

HOUSTON TEXANS

WR Nico Collins: 201.2 ADP (WR92)

The Texans are an absolute disaster, but they still have some value in their building. While they added a boatload of players this offseason, the only major addition to the receiver room outside of the 6-foot-4 and 218-pound Collins was Anthony Miller.

The departures of Will Fuller and Cobb leave the Texans with 123 vacated targets from last season. Collins is likely the WR2 and at worst will operate as the WR3 for Houston. At a nearly free ADP, he’s worth the shot.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

WR Parris Campbell: 145.2 ADP (WR68)

Campbell is purely a projection play, as he played in only two games this past season and seven as a rookie. There is basically nothing to base our opinions on just yet.

In his final season at Ohio State, Campbell totaled 1,071 receiving yards. Through two weeks of the 202 season, he tied for second on the team with nine targets. He’s the favorite for the WR3/slot job in Indy, so he can provide some value as long as he remains healthy.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

WR Marvin Jones: 115.4 ADP (WR57)

Fantasy managers chasing the upside of D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault are completely forgetting about Jones. Outside of one injury-riddled season in 2018, the former Lion hasn’t finished lower than WR42 since 2015 and had two top-18 finishes over that time frame.

He is a high-variance player, which is can be a drawback. Still, for a player with his overall consistency, the ADP just doesn’t align. The addition of quarterback Trevor Lawrence also improves this passing attack by an immeasurable amount.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 22.4 ADP (RB14)

Like Dobbins, CEH is a tough value sell as the current RB14. He was basically a lock in the first-round as a rookie, though, so his outlook and projection have dropped to a minor degree.

Even with some rookie struggles, his 176 fantasy points ranked 22nd among running backs last year. If we remove the games in which he didn’t play (Weeks 13, 16-17), he improves to RB13. Regardless, chasing CEH and the Chiefs upside with this selection makes sense. He should see many opportunities near the goal line after handling 29 red zone carries (15th) and nine carries inside the 5-yard line (16th) as a rookie.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

WR Bryan Edwards: 156.4 ADP (WR71)

Edwards’ rookie season was a total wash. He appeared in 12 games but only saw 14 total targets and a measly 2.8% target share. Nelson Agholor's departure in free agency clears a path to production for Edwards. Agholor led the receiver room in 2020 with 82 targets and 896 receiving yards.

Edwards’ skill set fits perfectly with the Raiders' offense. They ranked eighth in receiving yards after the catch last season, the most effective part of Edwards' game.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

RB Darrell Henderson: 58.5 ADP (RB22)

Henderson’s ADP has risen a stark 66 spots in the last 35 days, but that was expected after Cam Akers suffered a season-ending injury. Henderson didn’t receive a ton of work last season, but his potential was on full display during Weeks 2 and 3 when he totaled 39.1 points and ranked 10th among all running backs.

He is now the de facto RB1 on a roster that typically likes to utilize a workhorse-style split. PFF’s fantasy projections are high on Henderson, slotting him in the RB16 in 2021.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

TE Jared Cook: 168.7 ADP (TE21)

It was tough to find a great value for the Chargers, but Cook is an option who could separate himself as Hunter Henry’s replacement. Henry’s 87 targets ranked second on the team in 2020, and quarterback Justin Herbert was obviously comfortable targeting the man over the middle of the field, racking up a 14.9% target share.

Herbert's style of play puts all Chargers receiving weapons in a good spot. He launched the fourth-most passes last season and ranked eighth in big-time throws with 31.

Cook has proven that he remains a threat even at 34 years old, as his 11.9 aDOT and 15.1 receiving yards per reception both rank first among all tight ends with 100-plus targets over the past two seasons.

MIAMI DOLPHINS

WR DeVante Parker: 106.7 ADP (WR52)

The Dolphins are not an easy team to project this season after the additions of Fuller and rookie Jaylen Waddle. The two positives for Parker are Fuller’s one-game suspension and his already established chemistry with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

Parker put together strong performances the last two years, securing a WR39 finish in 2020 (mix of Tua and Ryan Fitzpatrick) and a WR11 ranking in 2019. Over the past two seasons, Parker ranks second among receivers in contested catches with 43, seventh in explosive pass plays with 55 and 16th in receiving yards per route run with 14.8.

Nov 15, 2020; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver DeVante Parker (11) makes a catch in front of Los Angeles Chargers cornerback Casey Hayward (26) during the first half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

QB Kirk Cousins: 153.5 ADP (QB19)

Cousins may be the most boring-yet-productive player in fantasy football. He totaled 319.2 points this past season, a figure good enough to place him 11th among all quarterbacks.

The emergence of stud Justin Jefferson mixed with the stability of Adam Thielen allowed the Vikings to produce 95 passing plays of 15-plus yards, ranking ninth in the NFL. They also ranked fifth in explosive-pass percentage at 16.6%. Buy this efficient offense.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

QB Cam Newton: 208.8 ADP (QB32)

Newton’s inaugural season with the Patriots was somewhat nightmarish, and yet he still finished 17th among quarterbacks in scoring. All of the COVID issues and opt-outs couldn’t stop him.

As we’ve become accustomed to, it was Newton’s rushing that allowed him to rack up so many points. He ranked second in rushing attempts (137), third in rushing yards (592) and first in rushing touchdowns (12) among quarterbacks.

Mac Jones may eventually take the job, but as long as Newton is on the field, he might be the biggest value at his QB32 price tag. 

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

WR Deonte Harris: 215.4 ADP (WR115)

Somebody has to catch footballs for the Saints in 2020, right? Michael Thomas may miss a significant portion of the season, and Emmanuel Sanders and Cook departed in free agency.

In a very limited role in 2019, Harris reeled in 20 of 25 targets, forced the second-most missed tackles on the team (nine) and ranked fourth on the team in YAC per reception (6.3). Harris is practically free right now and could enter the season as the WR2.

NEW YORK GIANTS

WR Sterling Shepard: 155.0 ADP (WR70)

Shepard seems to be the forgotten man in New York after the Giants brought in multiple big-name receivers in Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney

That being said, Shepard has more than enough talent to carve out a role. If we remove Weeks 3-6, he ranked first on the team in targets (88), receptions (66), receiving yards (656) and receiving touchdowns (three) in 2020. Shepard clearly has chemistry with Daniel Jones, and even though the new additions may cap his ceiling, he’s still the best value.

NEW YORK JETS

RB Michael Carter: 89.6 ADP (RB31)

The Jets overhauled many positions this offseason, including running back. The competition is wide open at this spot, and Carter — a fourth-round rookie — may be the leader in the clubhouse already.

Carter was a two-way threat at UNC, amassing 80 receptions for 641 receiving yards and 3,416 rushing yards over a four-year span. His rushing metrics were even more impressive, as he ranked eighth in missed tackles forced (47), first in rushing yards per attempt (7.9) and seventh in rushing yards after contact per attempt (4.5) among running backs with 100-plus attempts last season. Carter has enough talent to be the opening day starter at running back for a team without any legitimate veteran standout.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

WR Jalen Reagor: 130.4 ADP (WR61)

Reagor’s rookie season does not spark intrigue heading into Year 2, but that's why his ADP is rather cheap for a potential starting wide receiver. Reagor managed a 14.6% target share in the 11 games he appeared in. While that still isn’t an elite number, it did lead all of the Eagles’ wide receivers last season during those weeks.

A full season with Jalen Hurts at quarterback could do wonders. Hurts' second-highest aDOT (10.1) among all quarterbacks with 100-plus pass attempts last year pairs well with Reagor’s vertical ability.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

TE Pat Freiermuth: 215.2 ADP (TE33)

The Steelers don’t offer any screaming values, but they do have an interesting rookie in Freiermuth. Eric Ebron is likely going to remain the starter, but Freiermuth could eat into some of his 85 targets from 2020.

In fact, the efficiency metrics were so poor when targeting tight ends in 2020 that the Steelers might try to find more playing time for Freiermuth to provide a spark. His 2.33 yards per route run ranked 10th among all tight ends in college football in 2020.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

RB Raheem Mostert: 88.4 ADP (RB30)

Last year was forgettable for Mostert. Injury issues sapped his playing time, yet he still led the 49ers’ backfield with an elite 5.0 YPC and racked up the most yards after contact per attempt.

Mostert is clearly the most talented veteran back on the roster, but he will need to compete with rookie Trey Sermon for playing time. Going back to 2019, Mostert has three top-five finishes at the running back position. The 49ers also run the ball enough to genuinely support a two-way split at the position.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

WR Tyler Lockett: 39.2 ADP (WR17)

The fantasy community raves about D.K. Metcalf, but Lockett may be the most undervalued star in the sport. Both players finished in the top eight in at receiver in 2020, with Lockett landing at WR8 and Metcalf two spots higher.

Sep 20, 2020; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett (16) catches a touchdown pass against the New England Patriots during the first quarter at CenturyLink Field. Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Lockett has been consistently productive with finishes as the WR8, WR13 and WR16 in his past three seasons. He has yet to finish at or below his current ADP, and little has changed in the Seahawks’ offense. Buy the value here, as Russell Wilson will continue to fire deep shots to his incredibly productive playmaker.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

RB Ronald Jones: 102.9 ADP (RB33)

The Bucs’ backfield screams headache, but RoJo is still the player to own. He was the only running back on the roster with over 100 rushing attempts last season and was significantly more efficient than Leonard Fournette. He even tallied 32 red zone carries (16th) and 10 carries inside the 5 (21).

The Bucs are a productive offense that will provide opportunities to score easy points. They managed 47 goal line plays last season (14th) in Tom Brady’s first season with the franchise and could avoid some of the glitches they experienced early in the 2020 campaign.

TENNESSEE TITANS

TE Anthony Firkser: 163.0 ADP (TE20)

It's not often that a backup tight end is a factor in an offense, but Firkser was for the Titans in 2020. His 11.3% target share, 39 receptions and 50 targets all landed fourth on the team. Firkser is no longer the TE2 after Jonnu Smith and his 63 targets departed via free agency.

A player as efficient as Firkser — top-10 in missed tackles forced, top-five in yards per route run — should produce great numbers with the added opportunities.

Nov 22, 2020; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Tennessee Titans tight end Anthony Firkser (86) runs after the catch as Baltimore Ravens inside linebacker Patrick Queen (48) defends during the first half at M&T Bank Stadium.  Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM

WR Dyami Brown: 169.4 ADP (WR78)

Only four quarterbacks boast a higher aDOT than Ryan Fitzpatrick over the past five seasons (9.6, min. 500 attempts). Fitz loves to push it deep, and that bodes well for Brown as his aDOT ranked third (18.4) among all wide receivers in college football in 2020.

Brown was efficient on those passes, too, ranking fourth in yards per reception (20.0) and 19th in yards per route run (3.11). He isn’t likely to see a massive target share, but he could win the WR3 job in Washington’s offense.

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