McFarland: 2022 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings & Tiers

Ranking players by position is an integral part of fantasy football preparation, but grouping them into tiers is crucial to identifying the value you might be leaving on the draft board.

For example, if you're on the clock and looking at several running backs in the same tier, it could make sense to wait until the next round — someone equally as worthy will probably be available with your next pick.

Tiers can also help group players with similar expectations based on upside and floor. Most importantly, we don't want to pay more than the next drafter for a similar player.

There are eight primary criteria used to create running back tiers:

• Rushing pedigree: Recent attempt shares and short-down-distance (SDD) which provides a larger sample size than attempts inside the 5 but correlates strongly (excludes games missed)
• Rushing performance peripherals: PFF rush grade, missed tackles forced per attempt, yards after contact per attempt and explosive rush rate (10-plus-yard attempts)
• Target pedigree: Recent adjusted routes per dropback and targets per route run
• Receiving performance peripherals: PFF receiving grade, yards per route run and explosive target rate (15-plus-yard receptions)
• Offense quality: Projected team wins (winning teams typically score more and passing YPA correlates strongly to wins)
• Rushing volume: Projected team rush attempts per game (excludes overtime)
• Attempt and target competition: Number of teammates with a significant ADP (running backs with a top-48 ADP; wide receivers with a top-36 ADP plus tight ends with a top-12 ADP)
• Player average draft position (ADP): Positional rank based on FFPC best ball slim data from Fantasy Mojo

Pedigree focuses on a player’s ability to generate rushing attempts or targets, while the performance peripherals are all about how well they maximize those touches. Offensive quality, rushing volume and competition are all designed to tease out the team environment.

The ultimate options are running backs who play on all downs, create on their own and reside on high-quality offenses. After that, every tier is some variation of strengths vs. weaknesses in the profile. ADP is a final check against the current market sentiment that helps us extract maximum value from our selections.

The first table is a quick view of the complete tiers and rankings, and a more detailed heat map is included below as we break down each tier.

Last Updated: 2 p.m. June 1

TIER 1 RUNNING BACKS

TIER 1A – EXPLOSIVE YOUNG STUDS

Jonathan Taylor finished as the RB1 in PPR formats and averaged 22.2 points per game. Unfortunately, he doesn't get elite passing-game utilization (9% target share) like some of his peers due to Nyheim Hines. However, the Colts ran the ball more than the NFL average in leading (+4%) and trailing (+3%) game scripts in 2021, providing Taylor with the runway to show off his elite skills that helped earn him the No. 2 PFF rush grade (minimum 150 attempts).

Taylor vs. three-year NFL average in underlying efficiency metrics

A reduction in leading game scripts — where Indianapolis ranked fourth last year — could lead to more weekly variance in 2022, but at age 24 Taylor still has a leg up on the competition.

TIER 1B – PPR STUDS

Christian McCaffrey eclipsed the 50% snap threshold in four healthy games in 2021 — where he finished as the RB1, RB3, RB4 and RB3. His insane targets per route run (TPRR) of 34% and 2.91 yards per route run (YPRR) tell us CMC still has it in the passing game. If he can remain healthy, he has a shot at overall RB1 and should be a priority when he slips past his current FFPC ADP of 1.3.