- CeeDee Lamb fell from the top: Lamb finished first in fantasy points for wide receivers in 2023, but Dak Prescott’s accuracy declined, and then Prescott and Lamb dealt with injuries, leading to less fantasy production from Lamb.
- The Seattle Seahawks will look far different on offense: The team has a new offensive coordinator, a new quarterback and three new wide receivers to join Jaxon Smith-Njigba at the top of the depth chart. The changes might not be good news for Smith-Njigba’s fantasy production.
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Estimated reading time: 11 minutes
In an ideal world, every player will put up the same stats as their best season, if not better, in 2025. Unfortunately, there are several reasons why a player might not reach those same heights. Specifically for wide receivers, this could include changes at quarterback, changes in competition, or simply the player getting another year past their prime. The wide receivers in this article are being selected in the first three rounds, which is too high compared to other alternatives at the same draft spot.
The average draft position listed is from a consensus between ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo! for where the player is picked on average in a 12-team, redraft league.
Last updated: Wednesday, August 27
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys (ADP: 1.06)
Lamb started as a top-seven fantasy wide receiver over the first eight weeks. He averaged 18.9 fantasy points per game, a notable dropoff from 2023. His target rate was down slightly, but his catch rate was down from 72.9% to 60.8%, leading to fewer receptions and fewer yards. Dak Prescott’s accuracy rate dropped from 63.3% in 2023 to 51.0% in 2024 on all passes, likely contributing to Lamb’s decline. The offense wasn’t performing well, so his touchdown rate was down.
Then Prescott suffered a season-ending injury. Lamb’s target rate shot up by a few percentage points, but his average depth of target decreased by three yards. This helped his catch rate increase, but his yards per catch decreased. The offense was even worse, leading to even fewer touchdowns. Lamb also played through a shoulder A/C joint sprain most of that time. Lamb averaged 16.5 fantasy points per game over the last nine weeks of the season, which was tied for 14th-best.
Lamb has averaged 10.2 targets, 7.4 receptions, 92.0 yards and 20.8 PPR points over the last two seasons, ranking first or second-most among wide receivers. Lamb is a great example of how quarterback play matters for even the elite wide receivers, as he’s finished anywhere from first to 14th over long stretches, mainly depending on the quarterback play.
Lamb has lined up all over the Cowboys’ offense, which has been a benefit to Lamb’s fantasy value. This includes playing on the outside in two-receiver sets and often lining up in the slot in three-receiver sets. He was even lining up in the backfield at times last season. Most of Lamb’s changed usage in 2024 depended on his injury and quarterback change, and he should return to normal next season.
Lamb’s biggest competition for targets will come from George Pickens. After the draft, the Cowboys traded for Pickens, who will take over from Brandin Cooks, who left for the New Orleans Saints. The Cowboys had the third-most targets to wide receivers last season, so there should be enough targets for Lamb and Pickens to both see a significant target share. The only awkward part about the landing spot is that Pickens lines up almost exclusively to the outside, and Lamb’s yards per route run have been higher on the outside compared to the slot. This could lead to Lamb lining up in the slot even more often, where he could be less effective.
Brian Schottenheimer was elevated from offensive coordinator to head coach this offseason. Schottenheimer was the lead offensive coach for the New York Jets from 2006-2011, the St. Louis Rams from 2012-2014 and the Seattle Seahawks from 2018-2020. His only top-10 fantasy wide receiver was D.K. Metcalf in 2020. Lamb is a better receiver than any other that Schottenheimer has worked with, but it is still slightly concerning that Schottenheimer’s offenses have spread the ball around more.
The big question for Lamb this season is how well Dak Prescott will play. He posted a career-best 86.9 passing grade in 2023, followed by a career-worst 67.2 grade in 2024. His grade was also low in 2022 (68.2). Prescott will be 32 years old by the start of the season, which is a point at which we don’t expect quarterbacks to keep improving, although there have been exceptions.
Lamb should be a top-eight fantasy wide receiver again this season if he can stay healthy, but Dak Prescott‘s play will determine if he’s worth an early-to-mid first-round pick, or if he will slightly disappoint fantasy managers compared to where he’s picked for a second straight season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: 3.09)
The Seahawks made Smith-Njigba the 20th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, joining entrenched starters D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett as the third wide receiver in three-receiver sets. He averaged 64% of Seattle's offensive snaps during his rookie season, ranging from 44% to 82%. Naturally, he played more in losses, where he was typically in the 67%-75% range. In wins, he was typically in the 52%-66% range. Smith-Njigba caught a pass in every game but never gained more than 63 yards in an outing.
Smith-Njigba’s role changed in his second season, as he played more often in two-receiver sets. He averaged 86% of Seattle's offensive snaps in 2024, including playing at least 94% of the snaps in four of the last five games. He showed his potential in Week 2 with 12 receptions for 117 yards against the New England Patriots. His stat lines during the rest of September and October were reminiscent of his rookie season.
He then posted the best game of his career against the Los Angeles Rams, with seven receptions for 180 yards and two touchdowns. This time, he built on that momentum with six consecutive games of notching at least 70 receiving yards. From Weeks 9-16, he averaged 21.8 PPR points per game, which ranked second among wide receivers. He disappeared in the last two games of the season during two victories, catching a combined seven passes for 41 yards.
Seattle completely changed its wide receiver room, moving on from long-term starters D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett this offseason. In their place, Seattle added veterans Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and fifth-round pick Tory Horton. Kupp is Smith-Njigba’s primary competition for targets. He was a great receiver earlier in his career, but his PFF receiving grade has dropped to 71.1 and 72.3 over the past two seasons, respectively. Talent-wise, Smith-Njigba should be the clear top option in the Seahawks' offense.
His fit with Kupp is interesting because both Smith-Njigba and Kupp have primarily been slot receivers in the NFL.
New Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has bounced around with four teams in the past four seasons, but there have been a few trends, including using three-receiver sets at a low rate. The New Orleans Saints last season were an extreme example after injuries to Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, and the San Francisco 49ers have generally been extreme throughout Kyle Shanahan’s time with the team. However, the trend has still been true in Kubiak's other landing spots.
This means Smith-Njigba and Kupp will play out wide more than usual. If Seattle uses three-wide receiver sets only 50% of the time and the two split the slot snaps evenly, both could line up in the slot for roughly 25% of their snaps. Smith-Njigba has a better yards per route run lined up out wide compared to the slot, so that might not be a terrible move for his fantasy value.
Kubiak’s offenses haven’t had a clear slot receiver in the past, with a lot of players typically sharing the role. Jerry Jeudy was the only wide receiver to surpass 500 yards out of the slot (519) in a Kubiak offense over the past four seasons, while Smith-Njigba racked up 993 of his yards from the slot last season. Either Kubiak’s offense will need to adapt to Smith-Njigba, or Smith-Njigba will need to adapt to the offense.
One concern is that Kubiak’s offenses have relied a lot on the run game, and that will likely be the case for the Seahawks. Kubiak may want the best run-blocking wide receivers on the field for some early-down plays. Smith-Njigba is the smallest of the Seahawks' top wide receivers, and his 42.2 PFF run-blocking grade is the 11th lowest among 80 wide receivers with at least 1,000 snaps in the past two seasons. Kupp ranks 12th at 60.3, while Valdes-Scantling places 33rd at 54.6. Rookie Tory Horton is also noted to be a willing blocker. Smith-Njigba might be back to primarily playing in three-wide receiver sets in this offense in 2025.
Kubiak’s offenses have also featured low target rates to wide receivers. Seattle has a strong running back room and just invested a second-round pick in tight end Elijah Arroyo. The team's offenses in recent years have been run-heavy, but the wide receivers were always the focal point of the passing game. The wide receivers who have produced in Kubiak’s offenses have generally had an average depth of target over 12 yards — notably higher than Smith-Njigba's and Kupp's figures last season. One exception was Adam Thielen, who was WR28 in 2021. The other was Deebo Samuel, who was WR15 in 2023 (but WR34 when ignoring his rushing production).
Smith-Njigba showed promise with Seattle last season, but volume is king in fantasy football. His production is built on volume, and it’s fair to question how much volume he will see in 2025. Past Klint Kubiak wide receivers haven’t produced the same way Smith-Njigba did last season.
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins (ADP: 3.06)
Tyreek Hill is a future Hall of Fame receiver who made an all-decade team, five first-team All Pros and has a Super Bowl under his belt. His best season was 2023, when he earned 1,799 yards and 13 touchdowns. He finished second in fantasy points per game and was an early first-round pick in redraft leagues in 2024. While Hill played every game, he wasn’t nearly as effective.
His routes per game were up over last season, but his target rate was down 13%, leading to fewer yards per route run and EPA. Part of this could have been injury-related. He showed up on the injury report with a foot injury in late October before spending November, December and early January dealing with a wrist injury. Reports after the season said he dealt with the wrist injury since training camp, and he had multiple surgeries this offseason to help it.
However, he also dealt with hip, foot, hand, ankle and wrist injuries in 2023. He was great in Week 1 with seven receptions for 130 yards and a touchdown. Then Tua Tagovailoa suffered an injury in Week 2, so Hill only had one game when both he and his quarterback were fully healthy. It would be understandable that he was getting less separation if he was dealing with a leg injury all season, but it was a wrist injury causing him problems, which shouldn’t impact his separation much.
Hill’s entire game is built on speed, and at 31 years old, it would be understandable if he just doesn’t have the same speed as earlier in his career, which would impact his game. There is also a chance that injuries caused most of Hill’s problems last season, and he can rebound. Despite the down season, he still ranks first among wide receivers in targets per route (0.293), yards per route (2.88) and PPR points per route (0.593) over the last three seasons.
Hill’s usage has been consistent throughout his time in Miami, a Z receiver who can play significant snaps from the slot. Hill’s deep target rate notably declined last season, while his contested target rate increased, further hinting that something other than his wrist was a problem last season.
Hill’s primary competition for targets remains nearly identical to last season, led by wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back De’Von Achane. The Dolphins traded away Jonnu Smith and traded for Darren Waller. Smith and Achane provided more competition for targets compared to other recent seasons, contributing to Hill’s decreased targets. Waller will likely have fewer targets than Smith, but Waller is still more competition for targets at tight end than Hill was used to in 2022 and 2023.
Hill, at his best, is an elite option in fantasy football, but we didn’t see Hill at his best last season. It’s possible that a wrist injury and injuries to Tua Tagovailoa derailed his season and are a thing of the past. However, a lower separation rate, lower deep target rate and higher contested target rate suggest the 31-year-old receiver isn't the same player he once was. He is more likely to disappoint fantasy managers than not, but the chance of getting a top-two fantasy wide receiver in Round 4 or later will be too good for some fantasy managers to pass up.
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