Volume is king in fantasy football, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. It is a great way to know who is overperforming (sell high) and underperforming (buy low) based on historical data tied to metrics we know drive volume.
- Overall offense: Which teams are enabling winning volume and efficiency across game scripts
- Quarterbacks: How involved is each quarterback in the running game and who is unlocking upside for their weapons
- Running backs: Which backs are handling early downs, short-yardage and passing downs
- Tight ends: Who is running enough routes and meeting critical targets per route thresholds
- Receivers: Which receivers are in the most routes and operating broadly within the offense
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WEEK 6 TAKEAWAYS
WR – Rashod Bateman could end up in a timeshare with Sammy Watkins, but the rookie tied with Mark Andrews for the lead in target share (24%) in his first action. With the Ravens passing at a rate 10 percentage points higher than last season, Bateman is an upside bet on an ascending aerial attack. FAB: 5-30%+ (see details below under Ravens' breakdown)
RB – Jaret Patterson could be in line for a good portion of Antonio Gibson‘s rushing attempts and maybe a third of the backfield passing routes if Gibson misses time. FAB: 10-25%
RB – Rashaad Penny should practice this week and could provide value over the rest of the season if Chris Carson can't get his neck right. Penny will battle Alex Collins for touches on the ground but may not see much work in the passing game. FAB: 10-25%
RB – D'Ernest Johnson isn't as likely to provide as much prolonged value as the backs above, given Nick Chubb‘s imminent return. However, he could offer a big spot start this Thursday if Chubb is out and is RB4 material until Hunt returns. FAB: 5-10%
WR – T.Y. Hilton left the game with a quad injury but posted a monster targets per route run figure (25%) while on the field. The early word is the injury isn't severe, but soft-tissue problems can be tricky. FAB: 2-5%
WR – Courtland Sutton is playing at a high level, but Jerry Jeudy will return soon, and this coaching staff doesn't want to air it out if they can avoid it. If you can get a high-end WR2 value on Sutton, make the deal.
WR – Antonio Brown is currently the hot Tampa receiver, but things will even out over time. He has value, so don't settle, but be willing to move if someone values him higher than a low-end WR2.
TE – Dallas Goedert has a career targets per route of 20%, and his routes are about to surge past 80% with Zach Ertz gone. He is a top-seven tight end the rest of the way.
WR – Robby Anderson has two high-target share games over the past three weeks, and the drops won't last forever. He is somehow available in 30-40% of ESPN and Yahoo leagues.
WR – Laviska Shenault Jr. has been playing on the outside over the past two games and isn't hitched to 11 personnel anymore. There is a lot of room for growth in routes and targets in his new role.
RB – Nick Chubb may not be ready for Thursday Night Football, but once he gets back on the field, he is a top-six option until Kareem Hunt (calf) returns. He should take over at least half of the work in the passing game and handle 70-80% of rushing attempts in a friendly scheme behind an excellent offensive line.
RB – James Robinson handled 86% of the snaps and 89% of the attempts in Week 6 and now owns the short-down-distance and two-minute offense roles. He is an every-down back and a top-12 option the rest of the way.
WR – Sterling Shepard stepped right back into the role of trusted security blanket for Daniel Jones. He has accounted for 25%, 31% and 30% of targets in his three complete games.
RB – Damien Williams may not garner the additional looks we thought when he returns from COVID-19. Khalil Herbert looks fully capable of handling the workload left behind by David Montgomery. Williams is likely a change-of-pace back with a few extra totes until Montgomery returns.
RB – Jamaal Williams is in a losing battle with the bad game scripts in Detroit. The Lions trail by four points or more on a whopping 75% of snaps — worst in the league — making fantasy points tough to come by for an early-down back who isn't part of the two-minute offense or long-down-distance situations.
Data notes and acronyms:
1st/2nd = First and second downs
LDD = long down and distance (third and fourth down with three or more yards to go)
SDD = short down and distance (second, third and fourth down with two or fewer yards to go)
i5 = inside the five-yard line
2MIN = two-minute offense (hurry-up offense)
Close = score within three points
Lead = leading by four points or more
Trail = trailing by four points or more
Plays = penalties included for utilization splits and rates
Pass Play = all dropbacks (i.e., attempts, sacks and scrambles)
ADOT = average depth of target
Air Yards = ADOT multiplied by targets
TTT = average time to throw
PA = play action
PA Targets = percentage of player's targets that came using play action
Fantasy finishes = through Sunday night game
YPRR = yards per route run
TPRR = targets per route run
EZ = end zone
TOP = Time of possession
JUMP TO A TEAM:
ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WFT
|Pace & TOP||Pass vs Run Splits||Pass by Game Script||Run by Game Script|
|Plays per Game||Plays per Minute||Time of Possession||Pass Rank||Run Rank||Trail Pass||Close Pass||Lead Pass||Trail Run||Close Run||Lead Run|
Pass-volume environment: Poor
Run-volume environment: Good
Pass/run tendencies: Pass balanced
The Cardinals rank second league-wide in the percentage of plays with a lead, and they have trailed the opposition at the second-lowest rate. They look like a run-heavy team on the surface, but they favor balance in close scripts and rank ninth in neutral-first-down pass rate at 56%. As a result, expect the pass-volume environment to improve in more competitive situations.
They prefer to run inside the 5-yard line, ranking first in the NFL with an 85% run rate in those situations.
|Player||Week||ADOT||Adjusted Comp %||TTT||YPA||Play Action||Designed Rush Att||Scrambles||Sacks||i5 Att||PPR Rank|
It is tough to hold a dual-threat like Murray down for long, and he stormed back into the top five in Week 6. The Cardinals are winning on efficiency right now: They rank third in play-action passing, second in no-huddle and rarely face LDD situations (fourth-least). Murray is going to explode in games where his team is forced to pass more.
Monitoring: The Cardinals QB is nursing a shoulder injury, which could impact him in the running game. He hasn't scrambled in the last two games.
Rest of season: Top-3 QB
|Player||Week||Snaps||Rush Att||Routes||Targets||TPRR||SDD Snaps||i5 Att||LDD Snaps||2MIN Snaps||PPR Rank|
Downgrade/Monitoring: Edmonds' rushing attempts are trending downward, but it is tough to tell if this is a trend or circumstantial. He is nursing a sore shoulder, and the Cardinals continue to pile up positive game scripts.
In Week 6, Edmonds only played four snaps in the second half after leading the team with 24 in the first half. Over the last three contests, Edmonds and Conner's snaps are almost even at 54% and 46%, respectively. He continues to see healthy target shares but needs more rushing attempts to remain in good standings in the weekly ranking process.
Upgrade/Monitoring: Conner upgrades for the same reasons Edmonds downgrades.
Rest of season:
- Edmonds: low-end RB2 in PPR and half-PPR until we see attempts rise, RB3 in standard
- Conner: high-end RB3
Receivers and tight ends
|Player||Pos||Week||Routes||TPRR||Targets||ADOT||Air Yards||EZ Tgts||3rd/4th Down Targets||PA Targets||PPR Rank|
Buy-low (re-issue): Hopkins saw seven targets, but three of them were on plays negated by a penalty. His target share would have been 23%.
Monitoring: Moore continues to operate underneath for most of his looks, with 57% of targets coming behind the line of scrimmage and 29% between zero and nine yards. He is over the 50% route mark in the last two games and has two or more rushing attempts in three consecutive contests. The team is finding ways to get him the ball, but his application as a receiver isn't comprehensive and the team ran a season-low 8% of plays from 12 personnel with Maxx Williams out. Zach Ertz will enter the mix in Week 7.
Upgrade: Green has quietly settled into low-end WR3 status, with WR 22, 18, 102 and 12 finishes over the past four games. He is second on the team in routes and targets. It's still tough to fully embrace a 33-year-old receiver in a balanced offense, but he is a serviceable option when healthy.
Trend: Kirk is the definition of a boom-bust WR4, with WR10, 54, 20, 111, 42 and 15 finishes. His utilization is tough to predict, but his application within the offense is broader than Moore's when he is given routes. He is the first read on 90% of his targets (14% above the NFL average), and 29% of targets come on play-action (plus-6% versus average). Targets by field depth:
Rest of season:
- Hopkins: low-end WR1, high-end WR2
- Kirk: boom-bust WR4
- Green: low-end WR3
- Moore: WR5 stash play
Bye Week, see Week 6 Utilization Report for more info.