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The Fantasy Football Utilization Report: Week 11 waiver, trade and drop candidates

Volume is king in fantasy football, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. It is a great way to know who is overperforming (sell high) and underperforming (buy low) based on historical data tied to metrics we know drive volume.

  • Overall offense: Which teams are enabling winning volume and efficiency across game scripts
  • Quarterbacks: How involved is each quarterback in the running game and who is unlocking upside for their weapons
  • Running backs: Which backs are handling early downs, short-yardage and passing downs
  • Tight ends: Who is running enough routes and meeting critical targets per route thresholds
  • Receivers: Which receivers are in the most routes and operating broadly within the offense
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WEEK 10 TAKEAWAYS

Waiver Wire

QB Cam Newton should take over as the starter in Week 11. He provides the rushing upside we are looking for and gets a significant upgrade in weapons compared to his time in New England last season. FAB: 5-10%

RB A.J. Dillon will handle a near every-down role while Aaron Jones recovers from a mild MCL sprain. Expect Dillon to see 75% of the rushing attempts and 5-10% of targets as a low-end RB1. FAB: 50%+

RB Wayne Gallman split work with Mike Davis after Cordarrelle Patterson left the game (high-ankle sprain). He handled 80% of the rushing attempts while Davis saw more passing work. FAB: 2-5%

WR Tre'Quan Smith has two top-36 finishes in the last three games and is leading the team in routes over the past two contests. FAB: 2-5%

TE Gerald Everett has overtaken Will Dissly and is the primary tight end in Seattle. FAB: 2-5%

– See re-issue waiver suggestions below under each team: Justin Fields, Elijah Moore, Michael Gallup, Van Jefferson, Mark Ingram II, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jeff Wilson Jr.

Sell High

RB Joe Mixon (re-issue) has three top-five finishes in his last four games and ranks as the RB4, but his underlying utilization and efficiency indicate he is most likely a touchdown-dependent high-end RB2.

Buy Low

RB Miles Sanders is a speculative buy-low at an RB3 price tag thanks to the Eagles' newfound dedication to the run. At worst, he is in a committee and equals his previous production due to the larger rushing pie. At best, he reclaims a near every-down role to provide above-expected returns.

TE Mike Gesicki‘s utilization remains elite despite the two recent box score duds. He is a top-six tight end with a No. 1 overall upside each week.

Upgrades

RB Mark Ingram II is in an every-down role as long as Alvin Kamara is out. He is a high-end RB2.

WR DeVonta Smith is becoming a target funnel for Jalen Hurts, and his underlying WR2 utilization has been shining through over the past two weeks. The passing volume is down in Philadelphia but efficiency is up for the rookie. He is a high-end WR3.

WR Keenan Allen has three consecutive 30%-plus-target-share games. This one was only a matter of time. He is closing in on WR1 status.

TE Dan Arnold is Trevor Lawrence‘s favorite target, topping a 20% target share in consecutive games. His utilization is near the elite route (80%) and TPRR (20%) thresholds we covet. He is a low-end TE1 who could push higher.

Downgrades

QB Jalen Hurts is averaging nearly 100 fewer yards per game passing over the last three contests. He remains the second-most-involved quarterback in designed-rushing attempts, but the big passing game top is gone. He is a low-end QB1.

Data notes and acronyms:

1st/2nd = First and second downs
LDD = long down and distance (third and fourth down with three or more yards to go)
SDD = short down and distance (second, third and fourth down with two or fewer yards to go)
i5 = inside the five-yard line
2MIN = two-minute offense (hurry-up offense)
Close = score within three points
Lead = leading by four points or more
Trail = trailing by four points or more
Plays = penalties included for utilization splits and rates
Pass Play = all dropbacks (i.e., attempts, sacks and scrambles)
ADOT = average depth of target
Air Yards = ADOT multiplied by targets
TTT = average time to throw
PA = play action
PA Targets = percentage of player's targets that came using play action
Fantasy finishes = through Sunday night game
YPRR = yards per route run
TPRR = targets per route run
EZ = end zone
TOP = Time of possession

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JUMP TO A TEAM:

ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WFT

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Team Ranks
Pace & TOP Pass vs Run Splits Pass by Game Script Run by Game Script
Plays per Game Plays per Minute Time of Possession Pass Rank Run Rank Trail Pass Close Pass Lead Pass Trail Run Close Run Lead Run
19 24 9 30 3 28 13 20 5 20 13

Pass-volume environment: Poor
Run-volume environment: Good
Pass/run tendencies: Balanced

The Cardinals trailed a season-high 95% of snaps by four or more points but were without their starting and backup quarterback for much of the game.

Quarterbacks
Player Week ADOT Adjusted Comp % TTT YPA Play Action Designed Rush Att Scrambles Sacks i5 Att PPR Rank
Kyler Murray 8 8.7 74% 2.55 8.3 27% 26% 3% 5% 0% 25
9
10
YTD 8.4 81% 2.80 8.9 37% 12% 4% 6% 21% 10
Colt McCoy 8
9 3.5 92% 2.36 9.6 41% 16% 3% 7% 0% 14
10 8.8 65% 2.06 5.4 35% 5% 0% 9% 0% 31
YTD 5.9 80% 2.22 7.7 38% 5% 2% 8% 0% 42
Chris Streveler 8
9
10 4.8 67% 2.56 4.0 8% 5% 8% 17% 0% 33
YTD 4.8 67% 2.56 4.0 8% 1% 8% 17% 0% 58

Rest of season:

  • Murray: top-five QB
Running backs
Player Week Snaps Rush Att Routes Targets TPRR SDD Snaps i5 Att LDD Snaps 2MIN Snaps PPR Rank
James Conner 8 37% 26% 30% 0% 0% 33% 100% 11% 0% 20
9 77% 55% 66% 19% 25% 75% 100% 90% 1
10 84% 53% 61% 13% 20% 83% 91% 19
YTD 49% 43% 32% 5% 12% 68% 57% 31% 17% 11
Chase Edmonds 8 59% 37% 58% 13% 19% 67% 0% 89% 100% 19
9 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 72
10
YTD 49% 26% 50% 12% 20% 27% 14% 65% 83% 25
Eno Benjamin 8
9 24% 24% 19% 0% 0% 25% 0% 10% 34
10 27% 32% 19% 3% 14% 33% 18% 53
YTD 5% 6% 3% 0% 8% 10% 0% 3% 0% 96

Trend: Conner solidified his every-down status with Chase Edmonds out of the lineup, handling 84% of the snaps and most SDD and LDD work.

Rest of season:

  • Edmonds: low-end RB2 upon return
  • Conner: low-end RB1 while Edmonds is out; touchdown-dependent low-end RB2 after
  • Benjamin: stash RB5 while Edmonds is out
Receivers and tight ends
Player Pos Week Routes TPRR Targets ADOT Air Yards EZ Tgts 3rd/4th Down Targets PA Targets PPR Rank
Deandre Hopkins WR 8 25% 22% 6% 21.0 16% 0% 14% 0% 52
9
10
YTD 72% 18% 16% 13.0 26% 36% 19% 37% 26
A.J. Green WR 8 95% 23% 26% 11.6 34% 100% 14% 13% 39
9
10 78% 19% 17% 10.0 23% 50% 14% 0% 92
YTD 80% 17% 16% 12.4 26% 27% 14% 33% 40
Christian Kirk WR 8 78% 21% 19% 12.7 28% 0% 0% 17% 51
9 97% 21% 23% 9.0 45% 0% 0% 33% 16
10 92% 25% 30% 5.0 21% 0% 43% 22% 28
YTD 77% 21% 20% 11.6 29% 23% 17% 30% 23
Antoine Wesley WR 8 53% 16% 10% 15.3 17% 0% 14% 67% 101
9 75% 13% 12% 15.3 38% 0% 0% 100% 37
10 83% 4% 3% 10.0 5% 0% 0% 100% 122
YTD 21% 9% 2% 14.6 4% 0% 1% 86% 157
Rondale Moore WR 8 70% 15% 13% -2.5 -4% 0% 14% 25% 67
9 88% 19% 19% -1.0 -4% 0% 33% 40% 48
10 36% 33% 13% 9.5 18% 0% 14% 25% 73
YTD 52% 24% 15% 2.0 4% 5% 15% 30% 47
Zach Ertz TE 8 70% 16% 13% 4.3 6% 0% 14% 50% 14
9 84% 19% 19% 0.8 3% 0% 33% 40% 29
10 83% 21% 20% 10.2 29% 50% 29% 33% 11
YTD 28% 20% 7% 6.5 5% 5% 18% 42% 11

Sell-high/Monitoring: Ertz eclipsed the 80% route barrier for the second game, but 66% of his routes came from the slot. That could change once Hopkins returns, given how often Kirk also operates from inside. In addition, Ertz rarely gets open against single-man coverage (27%), while Kirk is second on the team behind Hopkins at 40% and Kirk leads the team in open rate versus press-single-man coverage (44%).

Rest of season:

  • Hopkins: low-end WR1
  • Kirk: boom-bust WR3
  • Green: low-end WR3
  • Moore: stash WR5
  • Ertz: high-end TE2

ATLANTA FALCONS

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