The small-sample nature of the NFL leads us to drawing conclusions on insufficient data. The structure of the schedule means we’re drawing those conclusions in a predictable order, with Week 1 weighing more heavily in our analysis than perhaps it warrants.
So let’s take it out of the equation. Let’s pretend the season started with Week 2 or 3. What’s different? What conclusions would we be drawing without Week 1 weighing in on things?
Here are some bold statements we might be making if we ignored that first bit of small-sample data and created some small-sample data of our own. And then we’ll follow that up with the real takeaways from the changing information through three weeks.
Return of Russell
Russell Wilson is a fringe Tier 1 fantasy quarterback
Small-sample takeaway: Did you see how Wilson did in his 2017 debut against the Titans? 373 yards, 4 touchdowns? He’s normally a late-season marvel, but if he is going to start like this, we could be in for an all-time season out of the quarterback.
Real analysis: From Week 9 and on last season, Wilson was a top-three fantasy quarterback. After he struggled through the first two weeks of 2017, we got a taste of that elite caliber of play in Week 3. Trailing by double digits for most of the second half, Wilson attempted a career-high 49 passes in the loss to the Titans. In his previous five seasons in the league Wilson only eclipsed 40 passing attempts in four of 80 games. He finished the day Sunday competing 29 of those passes for 373 yards and four touchdowns. After only throwing for one score the first two weeks, the four TD strikes were a pleasant surprise. A notoriously slow starter, this was easily his best September single-day fantasy output of his career.
Even in leagues that reward six points for passing touchdowns Wilson has only broken the 20-point fantasy mark in four of 16 career September starts prior to Sunday’s performance versus Tennessee. In that format, he put up more than 40 points on Sunday. He also rushed for 26 yards — counting last year’s Divisional Playoff loss to Atlanta, Wilson has now rushed for 25 yards in four straight outings. The last time he accomplished that feat was the first four weeks of the 2015 season. His added production as a rusher elevates his fantasy value. A nagging injury cut into that production during 2016 so it’s nice to see him return to form. With the team unable to get much going on the ground, the Seahawks only hope for a deep run in 2017 will be to have Wilson carry the offense. That should result in more heavy passing days ahead.
T.Y. is the guy
Even if Andrew Luck doesn’t return this season, T.Y. Hilton is a top-10 wide receiver.
Small-sample takeaway: Andrew who? Hilton’s connection with Jacoby Brissett is nothing to worry about, with Hilton putting up 153 yards and a score. He’s an easy WR1 no matter who plays quarterback.
Real analysis: Hilton owners can relax as they no longer need to worry about Luck returning from his shoulder injury to get their return on investment out of their early-round wide receiver. The Colts may decide they’re better off with Brissett under center in 2017 anyway. Let’s be honest — Indianapolis is 1-2 and on the road to nowhere. Even if Luck does come back, this is not a good football team. They just played the easiest team on their schedule, the Browns, at home and only won by three. The latest projection on Luck returning to the lineup is Week 6. Don’t hold your breath, especially if the team sits at 1-5. At some point playing for draft position becomes a priority.
Hilton led the league with 1,448 yards and finished third in yards per reception (15.9) and eighth with a 13.5 aDOT in 2016. Scott Tolzien appeared to be a death sentence for his fantasy value when the season started and Luck was sidelined. Tolzien didn’t even make through one game before the team pulled the plug. After posting modest numbers against a tough Cardinals’ secondary in Week 2, Hilton shined on Sunday against the Browns as he registered seven catches for 153 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. Brissett, who was acquired just before the regular season from New England, is starting to look more comfortable with the offense and his mobility in the pocket allows Hilton to do what he does best – make plays down the field. Given his high draft price even if he’s not a top 10 wideout it’s hard to justify sitting Hilton in most cases.
Make a move for Mixon
Joe Mixon could lead all rookie running backs in fantasy points from this point forward.
Small-sample takeaway: Kareem Hunt is the hot starter, but Mixon is clearly the Bengals’ favorite back, and he has a line on Offensive Rookie of the Year. He played more snaps against Green Bay than Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill put together.
Real analysis: This year’s rookie running back class is delivering on its hype so far. Hunt has been fantasy’s best overall RB through three weeks. Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook are also in the top 10. Christian McCaffrey is RB16 right now in PPR leagues. Still, from this point forward Mixon might be the best of the bunch. With new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor calling the shots, the Bengals finally started to lean on their second-round pick a bit more in Week 4 and expect that trend to continued. Mixon was as highly decorated as any of these backs in college and considered by many draft pundits as the “best in the class,” but he fell to the second round due to his off-the-field issues.
In Lazor’s first game of calling plays Mixon (21) out-touched fellow running backs Hill (8) and Bernard (5) combined. He finished with 17 carries for 42 yards and caught all four of his targets for an additional 60 yards. Mixon showed some great shiftiness and has drawn plenty of comparisons to Le’Veon Bell. Once you watch him you realize why. This might be the last week to get him at reduced rate before his value skyrockets back into the category of his rookie peers like we saw most of the summer. Eventually don’t be surprised if he passes all of them up.
Duke ready to deliver
Duke Johnson will finish as a top-20 running back in PPR leagues in 2017.
Small-sample takeaway: LOL, you thought Isaiah Crowell was the best back in Cleveland? Johnson is a superstar. 100-plus total yards against Indianapolis? Seven targets? That kind of usage over a full season will make Johnson one of the league’s elite backs.
Real analysis: If you ignored the plea made here last week please listen to it this time around, Johnson is poised for a breakout. Not only is Crowell struggling mightily right now, but the injury to Corey Coleman has led to the Browns needing Johnson even more in the passing game. He is tied for sixth in running back targets (17) currently and is likely to move up the ladder. Add to it a favorable slate ahead and solid play so far out of rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer and Johnson’s value is trending up. Chris Thompson of the Redskins is on fire right now and a valuable fantasy commodity, but Johnson is still the better long-term option for a PPR running back to grab.
Jets passing game offers fantasy upside
The Jets have two wide receivers that offer WR3 fantasy production.
Small-sample takeaway: The Jets have played two games, against Oakland and Miami. Jermaine Kearse has a two-score game, while Robby Anderson scored and had nearly 100 yards against Miami. Are the Jets … fantasy-relevant?
Real analysis: There are 13 teams with two or more top-40 fantasy wide receivers after three weeks, and New York is one of them. Kearse has pulled in 14 of his 17 targets through three games for 165 yards and two touchdowns. That leaves the former Seattle wideout as the WR12 in standard scoring formats entering Week 4. Teammate Anderson isn’t too far behind (WR40) and has also been targeted 17 times, pulling in nine catches for 145 yards and a score of his own. Rookie ArDarius Stewart is progressing slowly, so as long as veteran quarterback Josh McCown can stay healthy, these receivers are worth looking at in deeper formats.
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