Fantasy football rookies: How this year's class is measuring up

Rookies are the ultimate wild cards in fantasy football. For every Saquon Barkley, who came in with huge buzz and followed through on it, there’s a John Ross, who is in his third season and has two good games … and those both came this year.

Some rookies hit the ground running and are good right away. Some take a few games — or even a few years — to become productive. For this season, we’re going to check in periodically on the top rookies this year and see how they compare to the paces set by the top fantasy rookies over the last 10 years.

To do that, I’ve broken down the top rookies (Weeks 1-16 only) at each position over the last decade by points by quarter of the season (Weeks 1-4, Weeks 5-8, Weeks 9-12, Weeks 13-16). And then I’ll look at this year’s rookies and see who is measuring up so far.

Quarterback

Player	Team	Year	Weeks 1-4	Weeks 5-8	Weeks 9-12	Weeks 13-16	Total
Cam Newton	CAR	2011	105.8	96.9	59.4	107.0	369.1
Robert Griffin III	WAS	2012	111.7	78.5	76.4	56.1	322.7
Dak Prescott	DAL	2016	70.2	69.1	92.0	65.1	296.4
Andrew Luck	IND	2012	57.8	77.3	80.4	73.2	288.7
Jameis Winston	TB	2015	66.9	53.1	78.2	74.9	273.1
Russell Wilson	SEA	2012	43.8	59.7	61.3	100.5	265.3
Baker Mayfield	CLV	2018	26.6	67.3	67.4	70.7	232.0

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

(Weeks 1-4: 64.3 fantasy points)

Murray has been fine so far, averaging just over 16.0 fantasy points per game. That’s ahead of the paces of Andrew Luck and several others, but well off the ridiculous numbers at the top of the list. Still, Murray carries extreme upside, and hopes are high.

Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars

(Weeks 1-4: 63.3 fantasy points)

Well, no one saw this coming. Minshew wasn’t expected to ever see the field this year, let alone be battling Murray for No. 1 rookie QB status. And considering he was an emergency replacement in Week 1, it wouldn’t be hard to argue he’s outperformed Murray so far.

Daniel Jones, New York Giants

(Weeks 1-4: 54.0 fantasy points)

In just three games (two starts), Danny Dimes is only a handful of points behind this year’s top fantasy quarterbacks. Of course, there was a big difference in his fantasy numbers between Weeks 3 and 4, so let’s hold off before declaring him the next big thing.

Running back

Player	Team	Year	Weeks 1-4	Weeks 5-8	Weeks 9-12	Weeks 13-16	Total
Saquon Barkley	NYG	2018	90.3	111.3	82.5	75.6	359.7
Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	2016	69.6	70.3	106.3	81.2	327.4
Alvin Kamara	NO	2017	55.0	44.0	118.4	72.2	289.6
Kareem Hunt	KC	2017	114.9	56.1	24.4	92.3	287.7
Doug Martin	TB	2012	44.0	72.7	110.5	60.4	287.6
Trent Richardson	CLV	2012	73.4	55.5	61.2	64.6	254.7
Eddie Lacy	GB	2013	15.2	67.2	72.0	74.0	228.4
Phillip Lindsay	DEN	2018	48.2	60.5	54.0	60.1	222.8
Christian McCaffrey	CAR	2017	51.5	59.0	52.1	57.6	220.2
Jordan Howard	CHI	2016	34.5	69.7	36.6	77.8	218.6
Alfred Morris	WAS	2012	62.2	48.0	34.2	72.4	216.8
Todd Gurley	LAR	2015	20.5	71.8	54.9	65.5	212.7
Leonard Fournette	JAX	2017	77.0	53.2	27.6	54.8	212.6
David Johnson	ARZ	2015	49.2	26.5	23.3	103.9	202.9
Jeremy Hill	CIN	2014	29.4	34.2	70.5	67.8	201.9

Josh Jacobs, Oakland Raiders

(Weeks 1-4: 51.4 fantasy points)

For the most part, the top rookie running backs really hit the ground running (so to speak). Alvin Kamara took a few weeks to wrest his role from Adrian Peterson, and Doug Martin crushed late in the season, but most of our biggest fantasy rookie running backs were monsters early. Jacobs? He’s been fine. There is no shame in almost 13 PPR points per game. But he’s got some work to do to be a top rookie.

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears

(Weeks 1-4: 40.1 fantasy points)

Montgomery’s usage has been infuriating for those who bought in on his preseason hype. On the other hand, that usage has also gotten gradually better, peaking with 24 touches Sunday against the Vikings. With Mike Davis not doing much and Tarik Cohen primarily being used as a receiver, Montgomery could be a slow build.

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles

(Weeks 1-4: 31.5 fantasy points)

Like Montgomery, Sanders’ usage has been frustrating so far. Unlike Montgomery, Sanders’ usage hasn’t been improving. He’s had at least 10 carries all four games, but never more than 13. He hasn’t scored yet. On the plus side, he had his best rushing day (72 yards) in Week 4 — though on the other hand everybody has been able to run on Green Bay this year. Still, this has the looks of a committee situation where we’ll never be happy with the fantasy output.

Wide receiver

Player	Team	Year	Weeks 1-4	Weeks 5-8	Weeks 9-12	Weeks 13-16	Total
Odell Beckham Jr	NYG	2014	0.0	39.9	94.2	126.4	260.5
Mike Evans	TB	2014	43.3	27.3	110.5	47.6	228.7
Michael Thomas	NO	2016	55.9	54.1	75.9	42.2	228.1
Kelvin Benjamin	CAR	2014	71.9	53.2	51.7	49.1	225.9
Mike Williams	TB	2010	37.9	65.1	48.1	60.4	211.5
Amari Cooper	OAK	2015	69.9	43.0	54.6	43.2	210.7
Calvin Ridley	ATL	2018	78.7	24.8	56.4	34.4	194.3
Sammy Watkins	BUF	2014	48.7	78.3	19.7	44.1	190.8
Tyreek Hill	KC	2016	29.1	38.6	62.9	59.3	189.9
Keenan Allen	LAC	2013	19.0	58.9	37.0	68.0	182.9
Julio Jones	ATL	2011	57.3	4.3	34.3	83.1	179.0
Cooper Kupp	LAR	2017	44.6	28.0	51.1	55.2	178.9
Jarvis Landry	MIA	2014	23.1	33.8	66.4	55.3	178.6
Jordan Matthews	PHI	2014	41.1	27.6	81.2	28.2	178.1
Sterling Shepard	NYG	2016	58.1	18.1	47.4	53.9	177.5

Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens

(Weeks 1-4: 60.4 fantasy points)

Brown appears to be the newest DeSean Jackson; he had 147 yards and 2 scores in Week 1, and he has 157 scoreless yards in three games since. That’s the speedster’s profile, too, so he has a chance to be frustrating for fantasy, but with highs that make it all worth it. Still, the top rookie receivers tend to be more consistent.

Terry McLaurin, Washington

(Weeks 1-4: 59.7 fantasy points)

Obviously, McLaurin leads Brown on a per-game basis, having missed Week 4 to injury. Only a handful of rookie receivers in the past decade have as many points in four games as McLaurin had in just three. Assuming he’s healthy going forward, his fantasy ceiling is as high as the Washington quarterback situation will allow it to be … which unfortunately could be lower than we’d want.

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans

(Weeks 1-4: 44.3 fantasy points)

Brown had 100 yards in Week 1, and 94 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 4. In between, he had 29 yards in Weeks 2 and 3 combined. The highs are high, but concerning for his full-season stock is the fact that he has yet to play 50% of the Titans’ offensive snaps in a game. In a low-volume offense without a concrete role, Brown might be a hit-and-miss rookie.

Tight end

Player	Team	Year	Weeks 1-4	Weeks 5-8	Weeks 9-12	Weeks 13-16	Total
Evan Engram	NYG	2017	45.0	37.2	38.8	52.6	173.6
Aaron Hernandez	NE	2010	43.3	27.6	32.4	38.7	142.0
Rob Gronkowski	NE	2010	24.2	13.9	53.9	42.4	134.4
Jermaine Gresham	CIN	2010	37.4	23.7	37.5	24.5	123.1
Tony Moeaki	KC	2010	36.3	27.8	24.3	29.5	117.9
Mychal Rivera	OAK	2013	27.3	31.4	22.6	36.4	117.7
Hunter Henry	LAC	2016	31.3	42.7	19.1	24.4	117.5

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions

(Weeks 1-4: 39.6 fantasy points)

Hockenson had a monster debut game in Week 1, and he bounced back with a score in Week 4, though only 27 yards. In between he had only 8 yards in two games and now he’s in concussion protocol, so the jury’s out on his full-season prognosis.

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos

(Weeks 1-4: 29.5 fantasy points)

Fant’s gotten off to a slow start — 29-37 yards and 2-4 receptions in every game so far. His Week 4 touchdown helped him pass Rob Gronkowski in scoring in Weeks 1-4, more illustrating how hard it is for a rookie tight end to perform early than anything else. Fant has a high long-term ceiling, but for now he’s just a guy.

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