News & Analysis

Premium Content Sign Up

Fantasy Football: DFS tournament picks for Week 16

Dec 20, 2020; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Amari Cooper (19) is tackled by San Francisco 49ers defensive back Tarvarius Moore (33) in the fourth quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The goal of this weekly DFS tournament picks article is to identify at least one player each week who is in the winning DraftKings Milly Maker lineup at less than 15% ownership. Last week was a smashing success in nailing Corey Davis at 10% ownership in the winning DraftKings Milly Maker lineup.

Targeting the contrarian option in the Tennessee Titans‘ offense is proving to be an extremely sharp move because this offense is so condensed between Davis, A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry.

This is an important DFS learning lesson — when a player emerges as chalk in a condensed offense, we can view fading that player as a two-step process. The first decision point is to make the fade itself and omit this player from our roster. The second decision point is to identify whether there is an if/then statement that coincides with fading a player. For example, if Derrick Henry or A.J. Brown fails, then it is likely because Corey Davis is scoring the fantasy points.

When building your rosters this week, see if you can identify similar leverage points on some of the players with high projected ownership.

With that, here are the DFS tournament picks for Week 16.

WR Allen Robinson II, Chicago Bears (21% PROJECTED OWNERSHIP)

I am breaking my 15% rule here with Robinson projected to be quite popular early in the week, but my expectation is that the field will gravitate more toward David Montgomery at an identical $7,700 price point. The matchup is elite for both Chicago studs, but odds are that only one of them will exceed the 30 fantasy points you need at this elevated price tag.

Subscribe to PFF Edge to continue reading

Already have a subscription? Sign In

Monkey Knife Fight. Official Fantasy Sponsor of PFF. Join to receive a free EDGE subscription.
Sponsor

Fantasy Featured Tools

  • Create winning NFL Daily Fantasy Sports with PFF’s DFS Lineup Optimizer. Set custom exposures and team stacks to optimize lineups effectively before exporting and uploading the unique lineups to DraftKings, FanDuel or Yahoo DFS.

    Available with

    Elite
  • Sort projected player stats and fantasy points by position, week, and category.

    Available with

    Edge
  • Research past fantasy performance with sortable player stats including PFF-exclusives like aDOT and fantasy points per opportunity.

    Available with

    Edge
  • Available with

    Edge
  • PFF’s Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position.

    Available with

    Edge
Pro Subscriptions

Unlock NFL Player Grades, Fantasy & NFL Draft

$9.99 / mo
$39.99 / yr

Unlock Premium Stats, PFF Greenline & DFS

$34.99 / mo
$199.99 / yr