(The Fantasy 5 is a quick-hit wrap-up of some of the biggest news topics of the day for fantasy football players, giving you advice you need to improve your team.)
It’s a beautiful day. The sun is out. The birds are chirping. And PFF has a brand spanking new website. Highly recommend taking a few minutes to surf around and check out all of the new bells and whistles. But first, here are five things you need to know:
1. Mike Gillislee’s fantasy stock continues to rise
It took fantasy drafters several months to catch on, but folks seem to be adjusting to the fact that Gillislee will likely replace LeGarrette Blount in the Patriots’ backfield. Over the last month, his ADP has skyrocketed up nearly two whole rounds to the early fifth round as the 23rd running back off the board.
The big question is whether Gillislee is worth that sort of investment. It’s easy to get excited about his prospects given Blount’s massive production last season. But is this simply the case of changing out one cog in the machine for another?
It’s never safe to assume anything in a Bill Belichick offense. The Patriots also added Rex Burkhead in the offseason and still have James White and Dion Lewis in house. Of course, these three players are essentially three slightly varying versions of the same guy, whereas Gillislee profiles more as an early-down runner.
But when evaluating Gillislee this year, it’s wise to place little weight in last year’s numbers for both Gillislee and the Patriots. His numbers were impressive in 2016, but remember that he played behind a very productive offensive line that produced the most yards before contact in the league.
All of that being said, the market now seems to have Gillislee correctly priced in standard scoring. He has upside for a good return on investment, but the lack of clarity in the Patriots backfield makes him risky as anything more than a backend RB2. Those in PPR formats should bump him down roughly five spots to the RB3 range. White figures to dominate third-down duties, so Gillislee doesn’t figure to see much work in the passing game.
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2. Amari Cooper “looks bigger”
The third-year Raiders wideout is coming off his second 1,000-yard season, but notably faded down the stretch last year. However, he’s acknowledged the need to improve his play over the second half of the season and has reportedly bulked up for the 2017 season.
Cooper is currently coming off the board in the late-second round as the 10th wide receiver selected. That’s two spots ahead of where his ADP settled out last year. While Cooper failed to finish strong, with zero 100-yard games and just three scores over the Raiders’ final eight contests, he still ended up as the No. 13 fantasy receiver in PPR scoring. Still on the upslope of his career, we like Cooper to take another step forward this season and would gladly take him as a top-12 wide receiver option.
3. How does Adrian Peterson actually fit into the Saints’ plans?
It’s a great question, and one that we don’t quite have an answer for at this point. Peterson received glowing praise from teammates during OTAs, but that sort of moral boosting chatter really doesn’t tell us anything. The NFC South beat seems to be divided on whether or not Peterson will be an effective contributor this season.
However, the general consensus is that Peterson isn’t likely to receive the big workload fantasy players have become accustomed to seeing. Yet, that hasn’t stopped the drafting public from endorsing Peterson as an RB2. His current ADP is surprisingly in the early-fourth round. That positions him as the 19th running back being taken, which is extremely early for a player in such a murky situation.
Peterson is a good bet to see his share of the early-down work, but a committee situation seems destined with Mark Ingram still in town. There’s also been some chatter about Peterson seeing more work as a receiver, but this seems unlikely with rookie Alvin Kamara and Travaris Cadet on the roster. It’s easy to overlook the reality of Peterson’s situation given his name-brand status, but fantasy drafters should tread carefully. Peterson is best viewed as an RB3 at this point in time.
4. Isaiah Crowell’s ADP is holding steady
The Browns back who recently said he thinks Cleveland will “shock the world” has been a third-round selection for the last two months. While the Browns are a long shot to deliver on Crowell’s prediction, they do have an improved roster from 2016 iteration, especially along the offensive line.
On paper the Browns have one of the best offensive lines in the league. Joe Thomas and Joel Bitonio will continue to anchor the left side of the line, and the Browns added talent at center with J.C. Tretter and right guard with Kevin Zeitler. Former third-rounder Shon Coleman rounds out the line at right tackle. This unit coupled with Crowell’s ability for create yards after contact bode well for fantasy production despite Cleveland’s less than polished roster. Fantasy drafters should expect Crowell’s ADP to remain in the third-round for the rest of fantasy draft season.
5. Rookie watch: JuJu Smith-Schuster
The Steelers’ second-round pick has received positive reviews for his work through OTAs and minicamp, but those expecting a breakout in Year 1 may want to temper expectations. Smith-Schuster has seen some work with the first team, but he’s still behind Eli Rogers for the No. 3 job. It’s possible we see him used in red-zone situations, but that won’t be enough to sustain consistent fantasy value. However, those in dynasty leagues should look to stash Smith-Schuster. At just 20 years old, he’s an ideal dynasty commodity with the possibility for a lengthy fantasy shelf life.
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