Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 13: Best single-game parlays, including betting on the Eagles to thrive through the air

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) reacts after downing the ball in the closing minute against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

• Dolphins-49ers parlay: This parlay (+9220) bets on the Dolphins' passing game going off against the 49ers.

• Vikings-Jets parlay: This parlay bets on Mike White Mania continuing for one more week against a lackluster Vikings pass defense.

• Eagles-Titans parlay: This parlay bets on the Eagles' passing game not missing a beat against the Titans, leading to fewer rushing yards for Miles Sanders.

Estimated reading time: 3 mins

While same-game parlays (SGPs) are big money makers for sportsbooks, that does not mean betting edges don't exist. SGPs offer two unique opportunities unavailable in other markets: They uniquely tell a story that we can create through props, spreads, and totals; and SGPs allow us to combine outcomes that are correlated through a particular game angle, but will not be priced into the odds set by books.

The goal in this space is to hit on SGPs that either tell unique stories about games and/or uncover correlated outcomes available only in the SGP market.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins

Story: The Dolphins' passing game explodes against 49ers

We talked in Leveraging Tails this week about reasons to buy elite (yes, elite) offenses against great defenses, and this SGP represents another way to capitalize on that angle. 

The Niners have played zone on close to 80% of their defensive snaps in 2022, an area in which both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill have feasted all season — especially with regard to their ability to generate explosive plays. 

The Niners have allowed by far the fewest yards per carry (YPC) to running backs this season, surrendering a lowly 3.2 on average.

The Dolphins will pass often, and we know those passes will go to Hill and Waddle. We’re running back our go-to SGP from this season once more. 

FanDuel SGP Build (+9220)

Jaylen Waddle: 100 receiving yards

Tyreek Hill: 100 receiving yards (150 for the 205-to-1 bet)

Tua Tagovailoa: 300 Passing yds

Miami Dolphins: -5.5

Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Jets

Story: Mike White mania continues for one more week against Minnesota's struggling defense

After playing at a league-average level in the first half of the season, the Vikings' defense has really struggled over its past six games or so. 

The run defense is hardly to blame (rush defense EPA has improved from ninth-best to seventh-best). The pass defense, meanwhile, is struggling and dragging down the defense. They have faced the third-most passing attempts in this span (since their bye) and have allowed 300-plus yds to four of the five quarterbacks they’ve faced. 

Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson should be the beneficiary of a fruitful passing day. Any metric you choose indicates that Wilson has shined, but one that stands out is his third-best PFF separation grade. 

Though a small sample, Wilson was around a 30% target share with Mike White — in line with his target share for non-Zach Wilson games. Look for White to lean on his stud rookie wideout if the Jets are to take advantage of this poor Vikings defense. 

FanDuel SGP Build (+2708)

Mike White: 300 passing yards

Garrett Wilson: 100 receiving yards + TD

New York Jets: Moneyline

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tennessee Titans

Story: Big passing day leads Eagles to victory

We discussed in Leveraging Tails last week about the pass-funnel nature of the Titans' defense, which invites teams to throw against them more than any other team. Teams are throwing over expected against them more than any other opponent. 

The Eagles' run-pass ratios are not fixed by week but vary depending on the matchup. Given the matchup, then, this should be a spot where the Eagles turn to the passing game.

On sheer volume alone, the Titans are allowing a second-worst 267 passing yards per game this season. 

Not only is this a spot where volume should be on the Eagles' side, but Tennessee blitzes only 15% of the time, the lowest in the NFL. When not blitzed, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has been among the NFL’s best passers. 

If the Eagles turn to the air in this game, running back Miles Sanders will likely have less opportunity and fall short of his season-long rushing average —which his current rushing prop reflects. 

FanDuel SGP Build (+1860)

Jalen Hurts: 300-plus passing yards 

Miles Sanders: Under 58.5 rushing yards 

Philadelphia Eagles: Moneyline

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