Throughout the 2012-2013 NFL season, I will be answering some questions that come my way on Twitter in a mailbag. Sometimes, Twitter questions require more than 140 characters to get to the reasoning behind the answer. With Week 5 upon us, let’s take a look at what people are asking:
1) Cam or Luck this week? – @BearEsquibel
I would go with Newton. Despite all of the criticism he has received this season, he is still the sixth-highest scoring fantasy QB in standard leagues in PPG. His point totals have been: 12, 25, 9, 30 (average of 19). Luck has scored an average of 16.3 PPG.
Newton (+2.9), has a higher PFF grade so far this season than Luck (-0.3). Luck has been getting some of the “he’s a rookie so anything better than bad is good” treatment. If Newton doesn’t score 25 fantasy points in a week he’s considered a failure.
This week, Luck is facing Green Bay and Newton is facing Seattle, and both teams have strong defenses. The Seahawks have the best pass rush grade (+35.9) and a top-5 pass coverage rating (+12.5). The Packers rank 11th in the pass coverage category with a PFF grade of +6.0.
I think Newton continues running (average of over 8 rushes a game), and does enough damage on the ground to have another solid double-digit fantasy outing. Green Bay’s opportunistic defense will create turnovers – potentially at Luck’s expense. Stick with your stud here and go with SuperCam.
2) Would you trade Lynch for Gates/Lance Moore? – @MatthewGhanem
This obviously depends somewhat on the makeup of your team, but I would rather have Lynch than the combination of Gates and L. Moore. Lynch leads the league in rushing after four weeks with 423 yards and boasts a +3.5 PFF rating. Lynch has forced a whopping 21 missed tackles in just four games. That’s four more missed tackles than Ray Rice forced all of last season.
Lynch is a workhorse. The Seahawks don’t have a reliable air attack and Lynch is there to pick up the tab. His 92 attempts are second most in the league and he has seen over 200 snaps, sixth most among running backs.
Gates has 18 targets and 10 receptions in three games played this season. Jeff Cumberland of the New York Jets has seen more targets. He has also scored 0.15 PPS this season, a very low number. He’s just not the same player he was several years ago and I think injuries are to blame.
As I’ve said before, Moore is too inconsistent for me. Yes, he has 287 yards and 2 touchdowns. But the majority of that came in just two of the four games. It looks like he will be more consistent this year (he’s already 45 percent of the way into his total yardage from 2011), but I wouldn’t give up Lynch for the combination of Moore and Gates.
3) With Battle being named the starter in SD, is now a good time to try and get Mathews from a frustrated owner? – @SarcasticElder
I think you have the right idea in targeting Mathews now. The whole situation surrounding Battle being named the starter makes no sense to the football community. Mathews is clearly the best running back in San Diego. I fully anticipate Mathews to lead the team in touches this week and every week, barring injury.
Maybe there is something more to the story, though. Perhaps Mathews isn’t fully recovered from his injury, and they are being extra cautions? Maybe it has to do with discipline? We don't know for sure, but it appears as if Mathews being second on the depth chart doesn't really mean anything.
In the 66 snaps Mathews has been on this season (slightly more than an average game’s worth), he has 24 carries for 105 yards and 7 receptions for 53 yards. He hasn’t found the endzone, but that’s still a 20+-point performance in one game’s worth of snaps. Obviously, these stats were spread out over two games, but it shows that all he needs is the snaps.
4) How many more rushing yards is Mathews going to have than Morris from this point on? – @RealJESSELYNCH
You are asking me to look into the mind of the weirdest running back situation in football (San Diego) and the team whose head coach is the most maddening in the history of fantasy (Washington) – let’s do it!
Take a look at what I wrote above in regards to Mathews. I think him being second on the depth chart is a front and only a momentary thing. I would guess Mathews averages 85 yards a game for the rest of the season. That would give him 1,020 yards from here on out.
After being in on 71.1 percent of Washington’s snaps in week 1, Morris has only been in on 56.4 percent since then. He is still the feature back – with at least 16 carries every week – but it is something to monitor. I expect Morris to average about 70 yards a game as defenses get better at game planning for Washington’s unique offense. That would give Morris 840 yards from here on out.
If my math is correct, I predict Mathews finishing these last 12 games with 180 more rushing yards than Morris. I would also expect Mathews to finish with significantly more receiving yards. However, Morris seems to have a nose for the endzone and Mathews doesn’t, so the yardage difference could be washed out by the touchdown difference.
Want your question answered in the mailbag? Send your fantasy football questions to Tyler Loechner – @PFF_Loechner
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