From the get go, many critics agreed that things looked pretty bleak for the Favre-less Minnesota Vikings, and the team finally appears to acknowledge their shortcomings and build towards the future. Perhaps the immense first half leads that they blew had many of Minnesota’s players, coaches and die-hard fans believing that they just needed to try a bit harder and the chips would fall their way, but last week’s game against the division rival Chicago Bears was a reality check. There seems to be little doubt the Vikings will be finishing last in the NFC North Division and about the only thing they’ll be competing for is the first pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.
Giving your rookie quarterback his NFL debut against the defending Super Bowl Champs sure looks like a good way to ruin his confidence. Vikings coaches have called out the lack of toughness on their offensive and defensive lines this week, evidently hoping to improve the intensity level and effort of Christian Ponder’s supporting cast during his NFL initiation.
The Packers aren’t likely to have any sympathy for Ponder either. Even with their franchise best 12-game winning-streak dating back to last year, there are enough problems on this team to keep everybody grounded and focused on getting better. As long as they remain undefeated, Packers coaches secretly have to be relishing the imperfections. The defense is keeping opponents out of the end zone – but giving out passing yards like Halloween candy. Receivers have been making the big play, but then killing drives and missing scoring opportunities with dropped passes (eight total in the last two games). The passing game has built up big leads, but the running game hasn’t been productive enough to effectively run the clock out late in the game. If the Packers still have room to get better, then things are likely to get worse for the rest of the NFC North.
Here are three matchups to look out for in this week’s game.
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1) Adrian Peterson vs. Desmond Bishop
The Vikings are likely to lean more heavily on Adrian Peterson and the run game this week in order to relieve some of the pressure on Ponder. Peterson only got 12 carries in last week’s rout, but continues to take advantage of his opportunities. He ranks among the top ten running backs in our Signature Stat – Elusive Rating (which quantifies how hard it is to tackle a runner) and trails only Fred Jackson (24) and Michael Turner (20) with 19 forced missed tackles. Peterson’s also gaining over 70% of his yardage after contact.
Peterson will be up against Packers inside linebacker Desmond Bishop, who has been a favorite of ours well before head coach Mike McCarthy awarded him a long-overdue starting role during the middle of the 2010 season. Bishop responded and ended up grading out as one of the premier ILBs in the league last year. While he hasn’t performed at quite the same high level this season (+2.9), his strength has been in his run defense (+5.5). We saw this during last week’s game against the St. Louis Rams where Bishop had 12 tackles and three stops. One play in particular showed his violence against the run. On a second down and three with 5:29 remaining in the third quarter, Bishop stunned Jacob Bell with a hard-charging run blitz, dropping the left guard to his knees. With Bishop then sitting squarely in the A gap and smack dab in the middle of running back Steven Jackson’s ticket to a first down, the play was blown up and Bishop helped pull down Jackson for a short gain.
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2) Jared Allen vs. Marshall Newhouse
Jared Allen has embarrassed every Green Bay offensive tackle that he’s ever lined up against, not including Chad Clifton. In the two Vikings/Packers matchups since 2008 where Clifton was out due to injury, Allen steam-rolled Allen Barber, T.J. Lang and Daryn Colledge for 7 ½ sacks. However, in four games against Clifton, he could only muster two sacks.
Once again, Clifton is out with injury (hamstring) but with Marshall Newhouse filling in, the Packers have more reason to feel optimistic about keeping Aaron Rodgers’ jersey clean. At left tackle for the majority of the last two games, Newhouse has had a few slips (one hit and three pressures allowed) but hasn’t been overmatched (+2.2 in pass protection). If anything, he might be a slight improvement over Clifton who, prior to his injury, had been the line’s weakest link with a 91.4% Pass Blocking Efficiency Rating that had him near the bottom of the league for offensive tackles.
Newhouse has yet to face a defensive end of Allen’s caliber, so this week should give the Packers a better idea about how concerned they should be if Clifton’s out for an extended period of time.
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3) Christian Ponder vs. Dom Capers
As mentioned above, the Vikings would be smart to feed Peterson the ball early and often. But should the virtually inevitable occur, and the Packers aerial attack continue to pile up the points, then Ponder will be the hope that the Vikings have for victory. Unfortunately for him, he’s up against one of the craftier defensive minds in the league. Defensive coordinator, Dom Capers is a master of disguised coverages, unusual packages and exotic blitzes.
Ponder (+1.0 last week) is certainly an unknown, and with only one half of football in garbage time, there’s not much that can be inferred from his standard stat line (9 of 17 for 99 yards and an NFL passer rating of 70.5). But looking a little closer, we begin to see how Capers might attack the rookie. When the Chicago Bears pressured Ponder (which was on seven of his passing snaps), he was only able to convert one of those snaps into a completion for five yards. When given time, he had some impressive throws –like the bullet he delivered in a tight window to wide receiver Greg Camarillo that went for 23 yards with 6:29 remaining in fourth quarter.
With Packers cornerbacks, Tramon Williams and Sam Shields playing better as of late, look for Capers to make life difficult for the rookie with some heavy blitzing.
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