One of last year’s best regular season games, was when the Green Bay Packers squared off against the Atlanta Falcons. In that regular season game, Atlanta got the best of Green Bay, but in the playoffs, it was Aaron Rodgers who put up a performance for the ages which eventually led him to a Super Bowl championship.
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Skip to the present day; the Packers have won 10 straight games while the Falcons just barely beat the Seahawks on the road last week. At 2-2, there is reason for concern in Atlanta, as another loss will make it that much more difficult for them to catch up to the Saints. However, being the first team to bring down the defending champions would go a long way in stirring the Falcons back in the right direction, and maybe help turn their season around.
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1) Packers Offensive Tackles vs. Falcons Defensive Ends
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So far, the 2011 version of the Packers’ offense is even better than the 2010 one, with Jordy Nelson stepping up in the pass game, the run game proving to be effective, and the interior part of the offensive line improving their run blocking. Possibly the biggest improvement is in Bryan Bulaga (+6.8), who allowed 20 hits/sacks last year, but has yet to allow one this year. The problem in this game, is that Chad Clifton (-6.0) who is ranked 44th out of 59 in our pass blocking efficiency rating, will be at left tackle; and Marshal Newhouse (-7.6), who has allowed a pressure on one in every eight pass plays will be at right tackle while Bulaga is still out with an injury.
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In order for the Falcons to take advantage of the Packers’ biggest weakness, they will need to have big games out of John Abraham (+8.2) and Ray Edwards (-3.1). Last year, neither lineman accomplished this, with Abraham achieving just five combined pressures in their two matchups and Edwards having just four in his two games against Green Bay as a Viking. You would expect more out of these pass rushers, as both were in the top eight in terms of pass rush rating in 2010 for 4-3 defensive ends.
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Abraham has been good this season, with two sacks on just 19 pass rushes against the Bears, in addition to his five pressure game against Tampa Bay. However, as you can see here, Ray Edwards needs to step up his play.
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2) Tony Gonzalez vs. the Packers linebackers/safeties
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Last year, we weren’t as high on Tony Gonzalez as we were in years past which, was partially due to his six drops. In their first matchup last year, Gonzlez caught six passes for 51 yards and a touchdown, where as in the playoff loss, he had just one catch for seven yards. We’ve already seen an improvement out of Gonzalez despite his age, as his PFF pass rating is already at +6.2 On the other hand, the Packers haven’t played that well against tight ends. They have already allowed 207 yards and three touchdowns to little known players such as Daniel Fells and Kellen Davis. Imagine what could happen with a star tight end like Gonzalez, who has already has an 83 yard two touchdown game under his belt this season.
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With that being said, when the Packers decide to send their inside linebackers at the quarterback, that’s when they are at their best, as Clay Matthews (-1.7 coverage rating) and Erik Walden (-1.4 coverage rating) haven’t looked good when they aren’t rushing the quarterback.
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3) Receivers vs. Cornerbacks
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This game is going to be a big day for each team’s receiving corps. For the Packers, we’ve seen Jordy Nelson (+4.4) become a star with 3.11 yards per pass route run, which is fourth in the league behind Wes Welker, Mike Wallace and Andre Johnson. The Falcons traded a lot of their draft for Julio Jones (+2.6), who has seen his receiving rating increase in each of his first four weeks.
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On the other hand, the Packers secondary is hurting, with Nick Collins out for the year and Sam Shields (-3.5) taking a step back this year after already allowing 229 yards and two touchdowns. For Atlanta, something hasn’t been right with Dunta Robinson (-7.8), who has allowed 324 yards and two touchdowns this season. In the Falcons’ victory over the Packers last year, he only allowed two catches, where in the Green Bay playoff victory he allowed seven. If you like high scoring games, you’ve come to the right place.
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