As the Oakland Raiders try to extend their recent dominance within the AFC West, the Kansas City Chiefs have a chance for a fresh start after a week off to consider what went wrong in the first quarter of the season. Speaking of fresh starts, former Bengals QB Carson Palmer could be making his first appearance in silver and black against the Chiefs.
For Kansas City, there’s no time like the present to turn the season around. Not only are they coming out of their bye week, but the timing of this divisional matchup couldn’t be better for them. Either they’ll face a QB who has been with the team less than a week and has little familiarity with the scheme and players around him or they’ll face Kyle Boller, which is never an unwelcome task for defenses. With a win, the Chiefs would be only half a game behind Oakland in the standings and in prime position to turn their season around despite some key players on injured reserve.
The Raiders, on the other hand, can go a long way towards ending their division rival’s season if they can beat the Chiefs now despite their QB issues. In a game that means more to the visitor than the host, will divisional animosity be enough motivation for Oakland to hold on for the win or will Kansas City pull off the upset and leave the Raiders questioning whether they made the right move in acquiring Palmer? Well, that’s why we watch the games folks.
1) Staying grounded
Whether it’s Palmer or Boller behind center, the Raiders ground game is going to be the focus in this one, even more so than usual. Boller simply isn’t a threat with his arm and Palmer will need time to adjust to the offense. If Palmer does play, don’t expect the Raiders usual assortment of trick plays and some of Hue Jackson’s more unique calls, as they likely won’t ask a lot of their new QB in this game. There’ll surely be a few pass plays installed for the game that Palmer’s comfortable with, but for the most part his job will be a simple one: hand the ball to Darren McFadden (+6.1) and watch him do what he does. As such, a lot of responsibility will be placed on McFadden’s shoulders and the team will go as he goes. If McFadden has an off game, don’t expect the Raiders to move the ball much. If he recognizes his importance in this game and steps up to shoulder the load, it could be smooth sailing for Oakland. The Raiders favor runs through the B-gap between LT Jared Veldheer and LG Stefan Wisniewski, so the Chiefs will need a big game from RDE Glenn Dorsey (+3.9 run defense) and behind him, ILBs Derrick Johnson and Jovan Belcher have a busy day ahead of them.
2) Kansas City’s chief concern
Even if Kansas City can keep McFadden and Michael Bush in check, they still have one major problem. They still have to score points themselves. Only three teams have scored fewer points this season than the Chiefs, and only the Rams have a worse point differential. Of course, these numbers only demonstrate how poorly the Chiefs played in their first two games, but one can’t simply discount those games just because they weren’t the most recent. The Chiefs scored 28 points against the struggling Colts, but how will they fare against a better defense? Historically, Matt Cassel hasn’t excelled under pressure and the Raiders can bring pressure from anywhere on the field. Will Cassel be able to beat the blitz and put up enough points to keep up with McFadden and the Raiders? He could use another big game from Dwyane Bowe (+6.4) who has posted three consecutive games with a grade of +2.0 or better.
3) Without Campbell, how will DHB’s progression be affected?
One of the most interesting storylines of the Raiders 2011 season has quietly been the progression of third-year receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey. After grading in the red 12 times in his first two seasons and finishing 2010 with a cumulative -13.7 overall grade, Heyward-Bey was well on his way to join the countless other busts who’ve played in the NFL and I don’t mean in Canton. In his third year though, the receiver who most draft analysts predicted would need time to develop has looked infinitely more comfortable on the field and is beginning to show signs of being a competent receiver. He’s graded in the red only once this season and last week earned a +1.7 receiving grade despite losing his starting quarterback.
And that’s where things get interesting. Only one of Heyward-Bey’s catches were thrown by Campbell, with the rest coming on short to intermediate timing routes with Boller in the game. Known pretty much solely for speed, Heyward-Bey demonstrated improving route-running abilities as he figures out how to utilize that agility to create separation in more ways than simply outrunning the defender with straight line speed. Unless Palmer has seriously regressed in his time off from football, he will be the best quarterback Heyward-Bey has ever played with and we’ll be watching the young receiver closely not only in this game but for the rest of the season as he continues to shift away from being a track star to being an NFL receiver.
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