It’s surprising how much can change in just one season. It was great play by Brett Favre that pushed the Vikings from a good team to a great one, an interception by him that prevented them from making the Super Bowl, and then his decline that brought Minnesota to the bottom of the division last year.
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Now Favre is retired again and the Vikings have moved on without him. They lost a few big-names in free agency and expectations are low as most of the talk in the division is about the two teams who did advance to the postseason in 2010 and the up-and-coming Detroit Lions. However, Minnesota retained a core group of talented players that they will build around.
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Five Reasons to be Confident
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1.) All Day
It’s obvious that the Vikings have one of the best running backs in the league, and that he will be the focal point of the offense. This is one of the times where public perception matches what we’ve seen. What you might not realize, though, is just how much better Adrian Peterson played in 2010 compared to the past.
What stands out the most is how he erased his fumbling issue – he led the league in that category by running backs with eight in 2008 and six in 2009. In 2010, he didn’t lose a single one, obviously a drastic improvement. While he had fewer total rushing yards and touchdowns, he improved his yards per carry from 4.3 to 4.6. The Vikings have given a handful of third down snaps to Toby Gerhart – a better pass blocker – allowing Peterson to focus on the skill that sets him apart from all of the other backs in the NFC: his running.
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2.) Leader on Defense
It’s one thing to have a cornerback who can cover. It’s another to have one who can also stop the run and blitz the quarterback. There are few in the league that can do all three, and Antoine Winfield is one of those players. While our Sam Monson wrote about him in much more detail, it’s necessary to know he is critical to the success of this defense. His 7.8 yards per catch allowed was second best in the league behind Asante Samuel, and he never allowed a touchdown or a pass beyond 27 yards during the year. He only had two interceptions which could be why he flies under the radar, but it’s hard to argue with those numbers as well as his 42 stops (also second in the league for cornerbacks).
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3.) Front Seven Remains Strong
While some might focus on the defensive players they lost, there is still a great front seven remaining in Minnesota. While something was wrong with Jared Allen’s play at the beginning of the season, he managed 46 total pressures over the last nine games. In the middle, Kevin Williams was one of three players to have a rating above +10.0 in both pass rushing and run defense and Brian Robison looks to get his shot in the spot left open by Ray Edwards’ departure. At one outside linebacker position, the Vikings brought back Chad Greenway who remains one of the best 4-3 linebackers, and an underrated E.J. Henderson is in the middle. His +16.7 run defense rating was the best in the league for middle linebackers in 4-3 defenses.
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4.) Harvin's Emergence
Last year Percy Harvin became one of the best slot receivers in the NFL. His 452 yards after the catch ranked third in the league, and he was the only receiver with more than 400 YAC who saw more than half of his total yards come after securing the pass. He also had 11 players miss tackles on him, which ranked him sixth for wide receivers. With Sidney Rice gone, the Vikings will need to rely even more on this rising star.
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5.) Under The Radar
In 2010, the goal was clear: make the Super Bowl. The Vikings fell flat, and are now widely predicted to finish in the bottom of the division again. It’s rare for a team with this much talent to be looked at with such low expectations, despite the questions that persist. By finishing last in the division last year, the Vikings face the Redskins and Cardinals rather than more difficult teams to beat in the NFC East and West. With nothing to lose and an easier schedule than their division rivals, the Vikings could be dangerous if they get their act together.
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Five Reasons to be Concerned
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1.) Who’s in Coverage?
Beyond Winfield, there isn’t much proven talent in Minnesota’s secondary. The projected starter at cornerback opposite Winfield is Cedric Griffin. He missed most of 2010, but was the starter in 2009 and, although he did a decent job to prevent opponents from catching the ball, he wasn’t as good at limiting damage after the ball was caught, allowing 301 yards after the catch. Behind them are Asher Allen and Chris Cook, who each had coverage ratings below -9.0 last year.
There are also worries at safety. The Vikings gave up on Madieu Williams – who had the sixth-worst coverage rating in the league last year – leaving Husain Abdullah as one of the starters. Abdullah put up a solid season against the run game, but allowed 13 yards per catch and three touchdowns in coverage. It looks like the man joining him will be Tyrell Johnson who is entering his fourth year in the league. He was the starter in 2009, where, like Abdullah last year, he showed better as a run defender. The Vikings have a number of high-powered offenses on the schedule, and these players will need to step up in order for the team to keep up.
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2.) Worrisome Offensive Line
In 2010, we ranked the Vikings as having the league’s 21st-ranked offensive line. Plenty of teams below them in the rankings have made efforts to improve in that area. The Vikings, on the other hand, got worse. Four of the five starters remain – each with a negative run block rating in 2010, and only Steve Hutchinson having a positive pass block rating. The left tackle spot opened up when Bryant McKinnie left town. McKinnie carried the best run block rating of the group and a positive pass block rating as well. Replacing him is Charlie Johnson who allowed 58 combined pressures last year, and is on par with the rest of the Minnesota line in the run game. It would be very interesting to see what the Vikings would be capable of if they could more effectively block for Peterson, but it doesn’t look like that day is coming anytime soon.
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3.) QB Downgrade
Few quarterbacks who attempted as many passes as Brett Favre last year and managed a worse pass rating. In 2010, on 756 snaps, he had just a +7.0 rating. In fact, the only player with more snaps that ranked lower was Donovan McNabb. The big problem for McNabb is that when there was no pressure, his accuracy percentage was at 75%, and when under pressure, it dropped to 48.5%. As alluded to above, it’s a safe bet that McNabb will see plenty of pressure and his performance in the face of it will be a significant issue for Minnesota.
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4.) D-line Shake-up
While the Vikings still have talent on the defensive line with the players already mentioned and some young players ready to step up, it’s hard to ignore the two players that won’t be with them. Over the last two years, Ray Edwards has generated more total pressure than Jared Allen, and was also a significantly better player in the run game. Before the lockout, Khaled Elsayed wrote about how Pat Williams, even at the age of 38, can still perform. These two players were very dependable, their replacements will have big shoes to fill.
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5.) Receiver Depth
The Vikings had one of 2009’s best receivers in Sidney Rice, but since he’s left for Seattle, Minnesota’s already thin group becomes a sizable concern. The projected starter along with Harvin is Bernard Berrian, whose 0.68 yards per pass route run was 87th out of the 89 receivers who saw at least 25% of their team’s snaps. Behind him is Greg Camarillo, who collected 20 catches for 240 yards. The Vikings brought in Michael Jenkins and Devin Aromashodu and they’d ideally win the second and third spots, but both have lacked the consistency the team needs.
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Minnesota has talent on the roster but their success in 2011 will depend on what they can get from a few position groups and the players stepping in to replace departed starters. Lots of questions and limited expectations makes for an interesting team to watch.
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Follow Nathan on Twitter: @PFF_NateJahnke and check out our main Twitter feed too: @ProFootbalFocus
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