It was a bit of a surprise last year to see Miami stay below .500 for a second consecutive year. They seemed like they were on an upswing after acquiring Brandon Marshall from Denver and the expectations were that Chad Henne would have taken that next step forward. The defense was a bright spot as expected, but a defense can only hold for so long with little help from the other side, especially in the AFC East.
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The additions of rookie Mike Pouncey and Marc Colombo on the offensive line are steps in the right direction if they want their running game to be restored. The Patriots and Jets will continue to be the class of the division, so its safe to say an uphill battle is in full effect.
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Five Reasons to be Confident
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1) The Blindside
Every team searches for the prototypical franchise left tackle that will anchor their offensive line for the next 10-12 years and the Dolphins have the league’s best. In his first three NFL seasons, Jake Long has played 3,292 snaps. From 2008-2010 there has been no tackle in the game that has surrendered fewer total pressures on a per snap basis. During that time he has only given up 12 sacks, 17 hits and 34 pressures. Long has never been graded lower than a +22.2 in a season and, for his career he’s earned an astonishing +75.2 – only one tackle (since Pro Football Focus started grading) has a higher number. Even with a bum shoulder in 2010, it didn’t stop him from making his third Pro Bowl appearance in three years.
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2) The Total Package
When people think of tight ends they think of big name players like Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark and Vernon Davis. I bet if I tried to tell them that Anthony Fasano is a more complete tight end than any of those three they would think I’m crazy. Good thing they leave the grading up to us because Fasano is the real deal even if he isn’t a “big” name. In the run game, Fasano could almost be seen as a third offensive tackle. Whether it’s a big-bodied defensive tackle or a speedy defensive end coming off the edge, he has shown the ability to hold his ground and dominate at the point of attack. He finished 2010 as our fourth best tight end overall. While blocking may be his strong suit, don’t sleep on him in the passing game. He doesn’t put up gaudy numbers, but he’s sure handed – in 2010 there were 41 catchable balls thrown his way and He caught 39 of them.
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3) Watch Out Around The Corner
What will 16 sacks, 21 quarterback hits and an overall PFF grade of +38.9 get you; the 31st spot on Khaled’s list of the 101 best players of 2010. Cameron Wake is a quarterback’s absolute worst nightmare, just ask Aaron Rodgers, October 17, 2010 was a day to forget for him. Wake sacked him on three plays and put him flat on his back on three more. He only has two years of service under his belt, but before making it to the NFL he was a CFL standout. He has made his presence felt in a big way, in his first two years his PFF grade is +63.6 and he’s had just five negatively graded games. Last year’s season will be hard to top, but if Wake improves his pass coverage skills he could easily be the best 3-4 OLB.
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4) Young Guns
Finding a cornerback duo that is better than Sean Smith and Vontae Davis may be hard to do … yes, given their coverage skills may not match-up, they could be a more complete pair than even the Nnamdi Asomugha / Asante Samuel combo in Philadelphia. Smith possesses a rarity at the corner position, height. He is 6’03”, which led many to believe he would eventually make the transition to safety. Nevertheless, he has held his own at cornerback by only allowing a 57.75% completion mark on passes thrown his way. Also, he has only given up five touchdown passes in his first two years compared to a guy like DeAngelo Hall who gave up eight last year alone and was a quote-unquote Pro Bowler. Opposite Smith is an equally impressive player with just as much upside. Davis may not be as strong against the pass as Smith, but he will come up in the run game and stick it to the running back. One of his best games of the season was against one of the best backs in the NFL, Peyton Hillis. He finished 2010 with a +4.6 grade against the run, placing him in the Top 15 among all corners.
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5) Top Ten (Against the Run)
After the 2009 season, the Dolphins finished with an impressive +44.3 grade as a team against the run, 18.7 points higher than their cumulative grade from the year before. The end of the 2010 season saw an even larger uptick; their run defense jumping another +38.7. Giving credit to one individual player wouldn’t be fair because it truly was a team effort. It was a solid combination of defensive lineman and linebackers playing up to their potential and being put in position to succeed..
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Five Reasons to be Concerned
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1) Consistency at QB
When the rumors were floating around that the Dolphins were in the market for quarterback Kyle Orton, it was automatically assumed that he would solve their problems at the position. Not so fast, they don’t need a new quarterback, Henne just needs to find a comfort level and eliminate his sporadic play. Henne first took the reigns in 2009 and, as a natural progression, it was expected he would build on his performance from the previous year. But that didn’t happen – he actually might have taken a step back from the 2009 season. In fairness, he leaned heavily on the run game in 2009, but that same duo of Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown failed to produce and the offensive line fell in our rankings from seventh in the run game two seasons ago to 16th last year.
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2) Linebacker Help
As mentioned above Wake has done a phenomenal job as a relentless pass rusher off of the edge in his first two seasons in the NFL. After Wake the pass rushing productivity starts to take a hit. Randy Starks does a nice job as a down lineman getting up the field and getting into the face of the opposing quarterback, but from the linebacker position there is no help behind Wake. The next closest player production wise is Koa Misi. He finished the season with five quarterback sacks and 20 pressures. They brought back Jason Taylor from the Jets and it’s safe to say that he’s probably not the long-term answer they are looking for. I think Misi has the ability to build on last year, but heaven forbid anything happens to him or Wake.
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3) Losses at Tailback
With Williams and Brown both headed for unrestricted free agency the Dolphins appeared to be moving in a different direction after no contract negotiations were had with either party. Brown found a job with the “dream team” while Williams eventually caught on with Baltimore. Miami has decided to put their faith into former first round pick Reggie Bush and 2011 second round selection Daniel Thomas. Bush only has 524 carries in his career, that’s an average of 8.7 carries a game and Tony Sparano is counting on him to be the workhorse despite him being a player who has been better utilized spaced out in the passing game. It will be interesting to see how long it takes the Dolphins to reconsider Bush as their primary back.
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4) Tough Road to Indy
There is no such thing as a soft schedule for the Miami Dolphins. They play in one of the toughest divisions in football. The New York Jets have been on the rise ever since Rex Ryan arrived in town and Bill Belichick is, well, Bill Belichick – he’s made the Patriots one of the league’s most dangerous and consistent teams year-in and year-out. They will also take on the NFC East, which is generally considered to be one of the most competitive divisions in all of football. The first two games of the season will be very important as they open up with a pair at home that will be no walk in the park: the aforementioned Patriots and the improved Houston Texans. The difference from 2-0 to 0-2 is quite large and how a team starts usually holds significant bearing on the season that lies ahead.
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5) Receiver Depth
Outside of Marshall and Davone Bess it’s hard to tell who’s going to make a play. Brian Hartline doesn’t jump out as a particularly bad player, but he’s not particularly good either, though he has flashed some downfield skill. I do like the draft selection of Clyde Gates in the fourth round. He has shown the ability at the collegiate level to make big plays, but just like any other rookie, it’s hard to tell how his success in college will translate into the pros, if at all. If anything were to happen to Marshall or Bess who would step in and be capable of putting up the 80-or-so catches from that spot? Hartline, Marion Moore, Roberto Wallace and Kevin Curtis combined for 57 last season.
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The Dolphins are one of those teams that is right on the border between staying average and taking that next step of getting back to the playoffs. It is a quarterback driven league and if the Dolphins want to make it back to the post-season it lies solely in the hands of Chad Henne. There are pieces in place on the defensive side of the ball. The front office went out and has added a couple playmakers in recent years. So, it looks, as if there should be no excuses because there is talent on the roster.
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Follow Tyson on Twitter: @PFF_Tyson … and give our main Twitter feed a follow too: @ProFootbalFocus
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