Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 11 Betting: Market set on Dallas Cowboys as short favorites visiting Vikings

Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons (11) returns a fumble for a touchdown in the third quarter against the Chicago Bears at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Despite some thinking the wrong team might be favored, the market seems set on holding between -1 and -1.5 Dallas Cowboys in their visit to Minnesota.

• Any movement likely would be in the Cowboys' direction if Minnesota's suddenly-alarming injury situation — with breakout LT Christian Darrisaw and rookie CB Akayleb Evans in concussion protocol — breaks poorly.

• They were dominated in Miami, but the Cleveland Browns +8 visiting the banged-up Buffalo Bills are a Week 11 value, according to PFF Greenline.

Last updated: Nov. 15, 2:25 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 4 mins


The goal every week in this space is highlighting spreads that have already moved, ones that still have value and other big line changes that could occur based on injuries or various market manipulation-type techniques.

Let’s start by checking where the spreads in Week 11 have been at critical points in the past.

Away team Home team Preseason spread Lookahead spread Week-of-open spread Current spread
TEN GB -4.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3
CLV BUF -9 -6 -7 -9.5
LA NO 3 -1 -2.5 -3.5
DET NYG -1.5 -4.5 -3.5 -3
PHI IND -3 10 7.5 7
WAS HST 3 2.5 2.5 3
NYJ NE -6 -5.5 -4.5 -3.5
CHI ATL 0 -4.5 -3 -3
CAR BLT -5.5 -13 -12.5 -12.5
LV DEN -3 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5
DAL MIN 0 2.5 1.5 1.5
KC LAC -1.5 5.5 6.5 7
CIN PIT 2.5 5.5 4.5 4.5
SF ARZ 1.5 5.5 7 8

 

Another valuable datapoint often is the injury situation for all teams. One of the best ways to find value early in the week is digesting injury information quicker and more accurately than the rest of the market. This can be done by understanding who is returning and helpful to the team and also who is now hurt from the previous game but hasn’t been added to the official game status for a team until later in the week.

To start, let's take a look at the prior week injury information for every team and what that means for their outlook in Week 11.

There are also a few situations from Sunday and Monday that are relevant from an injury perspective and could impact the spread of games for the upcoming week. Here's a roundup of all the key news with highlights and thoughts on how long the potential issue is for the player in question.

Player Team Position Injury Timeframe Tweet Source
Colt McCoy ARZ QB knee/hamstring https://twitter.com/Cardschatter/status/1591962919775784960
Zach Ertz ARZ TE knee season ending https://twitter.com/JeffSkversky/status/1592261246086438913
Tremaine Edmunds BUF LB groin https://twitter.com/JaySkurski/status/1592259606537195520
Donte Jackson CAR achilles season ending https://twitter.com/josephperson/status/1592175553066442753
Gio Ricci CAR neck https://twitter.com/josephperson/status/1592177012990705664
Matt Ioannidis CAR DI calf https://twitter.com/josephperson/status/1592177012990705664
PJ Walker CAR QB ankle sprain Week-to-Week https://twitter.com/mike_e_kaye/status/1592184963268775937
Cole Kmet CHI TE leg https://twitter.com/JasonLieser/status/1591912331424169985
Anthony Brown DAL CB concussion protocol https://twitter.com/GehlkenNFL/status/1591932936282345472
Michael Gallup DAL WR knee/ankle https://twitter.com/jonmachota/status/1591915400157175809
Billy Turner DEN RT knee https://twitter.com/TeresaMWalker/status/1591883916235112448
Graham Glasgow DEN RG shoulder https://twitter.com/PostBroncos/status/1591896071604555776
Jerry Jeudy DEN WR ankle DTD https://twitter.com/ProFootballTalk/status/1592491461085319168
DeShon Elliott DET S concussion protocol https://twitter.com/danwiederer/status/1591876205128867841
Frank Ragnow DET C foot https://twitter.com/PrideOfDetroit/status/1592238986067677184
Trinity Benson DET WR leg https://twitter.com/FTBeard7/status/1591888459891109888
Aaron Rodgers GB QB thumb DTD https://twitter.com/AroundTheNFL/status/1592315192288968706
Christian Watson GB WR medical tent https://twitter.com/RobDemovsky/status/1591932410454835202
Kwity Paye IND ED ankle https://twitter.com/KBowen1070/status/1591928055643054086
Zaire Franklin IND LB medical tent https://twitter.com/mchappell51/status/1591933313694208001
Andrew Wylie KC RT elbow https://twitter.com/mattderrick/status/1591882183475875842
Chris Lammons KC CB concussion protocol https://twitter.com/mattderrick/status/1591879998130237440
JuJu Smith-Schuster KC WR concussion protocol https://twitter.com/mattderrick/status/1591879998130237440
Cooper Kupp LA WR high ankle sprain IR https://twitter.com/AroundTheNFL/status/1592332808399233026
Chandler Brewer LA mcl 4-6 Weeks https://twitter.com/GManzano24/status/1592572274619879426
Alaric Jackson LA LT blood clots season ending https://twitter.com/GManzano24/status/1592572274619879426
Christian Covington LAC DI pectoral season ending https://twitter.com/AroundTheNFL/status/1592313933796450305
Gerald Everett LAC TE groin DTD https://twitter.com/LindseyThiry/status/1591979507011178497
Kenneth Murray LAC head https://twitter.com/danielrpopper/status/1591977265453072385
Otito Ogbonnia LAC DI quad season ending https://twitter.com/Jacobs71/status/1592218729680867328
Emmanuel Ogbah MIA ED torn tricep season ending https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1591948269986488321
Keion Crossen MIA CB shoulder https://twitter.com/CameronWolfe/status/1591879930257997824
Akayleb Evans MIN CB concussion protocol https://twitter.com/Andrew_Krammer/status/1591879408251375616
Christian Darrisaw MIN LT concussion protocol https://twitter.com/christomasson/status/1591894532484104192
T.J. Hockenson MIN TE medical tent https://twitter.com/christomasson/status/1591883559165464580
Za'Darius Smith MIN ED knee https://twitter.com/BenGoessling/status/1592255628449239040
James Hurst NO LT concussion protocol https://twitter.com/TheSaintsWire/status/1591881288440741888
Dallas Goedert PHI TE shoulder Week-to-Week https://twitter.com/PFF_Mario/status/1592578130904240129
George Pickens PIT WR foot https://twitter.com/C_AdamskiTrib/status/1592240047662989313
Kenny Pickett PIT QB ankle https://twitter.com/bepryor/status/1591908649446047744
Najee Harris PIT RB knee https://twitter.com/missi_matthews/status/1592565185126060033
Tashaun Gipson SF S foot https://twitter.com/Eric_Branch/status/1591994970420002817
Leonard Fournette TB RB hip pointer https://twitter.com/ScottSBucs/status/1592218259868512257
Ben Jones TEN C concussion protocol https://twitter.com/glennonsports/status/1592306804540817408
Caleb Farley TEN CB back https://twitter.com/PaulKuharskyNFL/status/1591897401501032451
David Long TEN LB stinger/neck https://twitter.com/PaulKuharskyNFL/status/1591897401501032451
Randy Bullock TEN K calf https://twitter.com/ProFootballTalk/status/1592274678932176896
Josh Sweat WAS ED medical tent https://twitter.com/Jeff_McLane/status/1592336449088950272

Let’s dive into the games whose lines have already moved and others that could have the most spread movement as we head closer to kickoff.

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DALLAS COWBOYS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+1, 47.5)

After emotionally-draining victory, Minnesota returns home with a much cleaner path to potentially gain NFC's top seed: The betting market seems hesitant to crown them this early, as the Vikings are 1-point underdogs to a Cowboys team that's coming off a disappointing let-down OT loss. 

The injury situation for the Vikings has suddenly become alarming: With three key players looking questionable to start the week. Christian Darrisaw would be a significant loss, as he's graded as a top-10 pass-blocking tackle and would be sorely missed facing off against the top pass rush unit based on PFF unit grade. 

Despite some people thinking the wrong team might be favored in this matchup: The market seems set on holding between 1 and 1.5. Any movement could be in the Cowboys' direction if the Vikings injury news breaks poorly. Locking in Cowboys -1 right now does offer neutral (0.0%) value based on PFF Greenline. 

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ BUFFALO BILLS (-8, 43.5)

The betting market seems to have digested the Bills' most recent performance as nothing more than a minor hiccup: As the spread continues to push out somewhat close to a preseason high of -9.5. 

Buffalo might have another hole to plug in its defense: LB Tremaine Edmunds questionable with a groin injury. Graded as the best coverage linebacker or safety in the NFL through 10 weeks, Edmunds would be sorely missed in a unit already down Micah Hyde for the season and without fellow starting safety Jordan Poyer (elbow) the past two games.

PFF Greenline points toward a bounce-back spot for Cleveland: The Browns were dominated coming out of their bye, but they at least are starting to turn over some of their early-season injury concerns. Greenline finds value on the Browns covering the current +8 spread. 

 

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