NFL Week 11 Betting: Market set on Dallas Cowboys as short favorites visiting Vikings

Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons (11) returns a fumble for a touchdown in the third quarter against the Chicago Bears at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Despite some thinking the wrong team might be favored, the market seems set on holding between -1 and -1.5 Dallas Cowboys in their visit to Minnesota.

• Any movement likely would be in the Cowboys' direction if Minnesota's suddenly-alarming injury situation — with breakout LT Christian Darrisaw and rookie CB Akayleb Evans in concussion protocol — breaks poorly.

• They were dominated in Miami, but the Cleveland Browns +8 visiting the banged-up Buffalo Bills are a Week 11 value, according to PFF Greenline.

Last updated: Nov. 15, 2:25 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 4 mins

The goal every week in this space is highlighting spreads that have already moved, ones that still have value and other big line changes that could occur based on injuries or various market manipulation-type techniques.

Let’s start by checking where the spreads in Week 11 have been at critical points in the past.

Away team Home team Preseason spread Lookahead spread Week-of-open spread Current spread
TEN GB -4.5 -1.5 -2.5 -3
CLV BUF -9 -6 -7 -9.5
LA NO 3 -1 -2.5 -3.5
DET NYG -1.5 -4.5 -3.5 -3
PHI IND -3 10 7.5 7
WAS HST 3 2.5 2.5 3
NYJ NE -6 -5.5 -4.5 -3.5
CHI ATL 0 -4.5 -3 -3
CAR BLT -5.5 -13 -12.5 -12.5
LV DEN -3 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5
DAL MIN 0 2.5 1.5 1.5
KC LAC -1.5 5.5 6.5 7
CIN PIT 2.5 5.5 4.5 4.5
SF ARZ 1.5 5.5 7 8


Another valuable datapoint often is the injury situation for all teams. One of the best ways to find value early in the week is digesting injury information quicker and more accurately than the rest of the market. This can be done by understanding who is returning and helpful to the team and also who is now hurt from the previous game but hasn’t been added to the official game status for a team until later in the week.

To start, let's take a look at the prior week injury information for every team and what that means for their outlook in Week 11.

There are also a few situations from Sunday and Monday that are relevant from an injury perspective and could impact the spread of games for the upcoming week. Here's a roundup of all the key news with highlights and thoughts on how long the potential issue is for the player in question.

Player Team Position Injury Timeframe Tweet Source
Colt McCoy ARZ QB knee/hamstring
Zach Ertz ARZ TE knee season ending
Tremaine Edmunds BUF LB groin
Donte Jackson CAR achilles season ending
Gio Ricci CAR neck
Matt Ioannidis CAR DI calf
PJ Walker CAR QB ankle sprain Week-to-Week
Cole Kmet CHI TE leg
Anthony Brown DAL CB concussion protocol
Michael Gallup DAL WR knee/ankle
Billy Turner DEN RT knee
Graham Glasgow DEN RG shoulder
Jerry Jeudy DEN WR ankle DTD
DeShon Elliott DET S concussion protocol
Frank Ragnow DET C foot
Trinity Benson DET WR leg
Aaron Rodgers GB QB thumb DTD
Christian Watson GB WR medical tent
Kwity Paye IND ED ankle
Zaire Franklin IND LB medical tent
Andrew Wylie KC RT elbow
Chris Lammons KC CB concussion protocol
JuJu Smith-Schuster KC WR concussion protocol
Cooper Kupp LA WR high ankle sprain IR
Chandler Brewer LA mcl 4-6 Weeks
Alaric Jackson LA LT blood clots season ending
Christian Covington LAC DI pectoral season ending
Gerald Everett LAC TE groin DTD
Kenneth Murray LAC head
Otito Ogbonnia LAC DI quad season ending
Emmanuel Ogbah MIA ED torn tricep season ending
Keion Crossen MIA CB shoulder
Akayleb Evans MIN CB concussion protocol
Christian Darrisaw MIN LT concussion protocol
T.J. Hockenson MIN TE medical tent
Za'Darius Smith MIN ED knee
James Hurst NO LT concussion protocol
Dallas Goedert PHI TE shoulder Week-to-Week
George Pickens PIT WR foot
Kenny Pickett PIT QB ankle
Najee Harris PIT RB knee
Tashaun Gipson SF S foot
Leonard Fournette TB RB hip pointer
Ben Jones TEN C concussion protocol
Caleb Farley TEN CB back
David Long TEN LB stinger/neck
Randy Bullock TEN K calf
Josh Sweat WAS ED medical tent

Let’s dive into the games whose lines have already moved and others that could have the most spread movement as we head closer to kickoff.

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After emotionally-draining victory, Minnesota returns home with a much cleaner path to potentially gain NFC's top seed: The betting market seems hesitant to crown them this early, as the Vikings are 1-point underdogs to a Cowboys team that's coming off a disappointing let-down OT loss. 

The injury situation for the Vikings has suddenly become alarming: With three key players looking questionable to start the week. Christian Darrisaw would be a significant loss, as he's graded as a top-10 pass-blocking tackle and would be sorely missed facing off against the top pass rush unit based on PFF unit grade. 

Despite some people thinking the wrong team might be favored in this matchup: The market seems set on holding between 1 and 1.5. Any movement could be in the Cowboys' direction if the Vikings injury news breaks poorly. Locking in Cowboys -1 right now does offer neutral (0.0%) value based on PFF Greenline. 


The betting market seems to have digested the Bills' most recent performance as nothing more than a minor hiccup: As the spread continues to push out somewhat close to a preseason high of -9.5. 

Buffalo might have another hole to plug in its defense: LB Tremaine Edmunds questionable with a groin injury. Graded as the best coverage linebacker or safety in the NFL through 10 weeks, Edmunds would be sorely missed in a unit already down Micah Hyde for the season and without fellow starting safety Jordan Poyer (elbow) the past two games.

PFF Greenline points toward a bounce-back spot for Cleveland: The Browns were dominated coming out of their bye, but they at least are starting to turn over some of their early-season injury concerns. Greenline finds value on the Browns covering the current +8 spread. 


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